Should Boston Celtics Pull Plug on Joe Mazzulla or Jaylen Brown?

The Boston Celtics didn't pull off the unprecedented turnaround from down 0-3 to the Miami Heat in the Eastern Conference Finals, but pushing the series to seven games may have saved head coach Joe Mazzulla's job status, for now.

Most competing executives polled believe the Celtics will keep Mazzulla, who signed a multi-year deal earlier in the season.

"He saved his job by tying up the series," one former Western Conference executive said.

But others think Mazzula was probably safe, regardless of the outcome. He was out-coached by Erik Spoelstra—but Spoelstra is widely regarded as the best coach in the NBA over the last decade.

The franchise faces several more difficult choices as Jaylen Brown nears free agency. The incoming collective bargaining agreement creates new challenges, with highly limiting and punitive rules for heavy spenders.

For years, competing executives have expressed the notion that the Celtics should break up its pair of All-Star wings, but since Tatum joined Brown in 2017, the duo has made four conference finals, including last year's run to the NBA Finals. Those voices have been relatively silent since Boston's 2021-22 run, but the decision is, in fact, looming.

Brown and the "Supermax"

Just because a team can pay a player a specific price doesn't mean it should. The core question is, "Do the Celtics believe the Tatum/Brown duo is worth investing in long-term?"

The results, ECF letdown aside, suggest they should. The next step is, "At what price?"

Brown is heading into the final year of his deal and, by his All-NBA Second Team ranking, is eligible for what is commonly referred to as a supermax extension. If he's a top-10 player, then he will get maxed out next summer in free agency by someone, if not Boston.

Assuming a $140.7 million salary cap for the 2024-25 season, a supermax deal in Boston would start at $49.2 million ($285.6 million over five years). The exact figures wouldn't be set until June 30, 2024.

Only the Celtics can pay that amount. Period.

If Brown were traded, his new team would be limited to extending at $189.1 million after a six-month waiting period over four additional years (starting at $42.2 million). Non-supermax free agency in July 2024 could pay $244.8 million over five by Boston (or by a team that previously acquired him via trade).

Should he depart as a free agent to another team without his rights, that number would dip to $181.5 million over four years.

Do we live in an NBA world where a $189.1 million offer from Boston this July, in lieu of the supermax, should be considered an insult?

Brown can choose to wait to see what opportunities lie ahead, but it would take a lot for anyone to turn down that level of financial security.

Boston can always look to trade him (pre- or post-extension) and may even explore that path to gauge the market, but the most likely outcome seems to be Brown getting enough from the Celtics to stay.

Grant Williams, Taxes & Aprons

Brown isn't the only decision the Celtics need to make this summer. Grant Williams will be a restricted free agent looking for a long-term commitment. Last year, Grant played 27.3 minutes a game in the playoffs, but his role shrunk to 17.7 (with some "did-not-play, coach's decision" interspersed).

Approximately seven teams project to have sizable cap space this summer to give him an offer sheet. Williams may project to be in the $15 million+ range, but only if one of those teams is willing to take the chance that the Celtics won't match.

Another 11 teams could have the non-taxpayer mid-level exception (NTMLE, projected to start at $12.2 million)—subject to change based on trades, player options and non-guaranteed salary decisions—but that's a number probably match.

But Williams raises a more significant picture concern tied to Brown's extension. Will Boston end up too deep in the tax that the franchise nears or exceeds the new second apron?

Initially set at $179.5 million for 2023-24, growing to potentially $188.5 million for 2024-25, the second apron includes severe restrictions, including the loss of the taxpayer mid-level exception, limited trade flexibility and (starting with 2024-25) frozen draft picks.

The last one is the most extreme punishment pushing a team's first-round pick to the end of the list seven years later. A team paying for a contender now may lose out on a high lottery position when the time comes to rebuild.

Most NBA franchises will treat the second apron like a hard cap, but it remains to be seen where the Celtics fall in that category.

Staying under the second apron is a possibility with Brown in a standard, non-supermax extension. But paying both Brown and Williams is prohibitive long-term if the second apron is the line Boston won't cross.

Paying Williams this summer, even as low as the NTMLE, would put the Celtics at least $3.6 million over the second apron for 2023-24 and locks that in for multiple years (with Brown returning).

That may be a non-starter, barring the team finding elsewhere to cut—but Williams seems the most expendable in Mazzulla's rotation.

Other Contract Decisions

After losing the season to a knee injury, Danilo Gallinari is sure to opt into his $6.8 million for 2023-24.

The team traded for Mike Muscala, and while he wasn't a significant part of the postseason run, his $3.5 million team option may be economical enough for the Celtics to take. Similarly, Luke Kornet's $2.4 million non-guaranteed salary is probably worth holding onto. Boston could try to replace either with minimum players at roughly $2 million each against the luxury tax for minimal savings.

Justin Champagnie's $1.9 million isn't guaranteed. He could be included in a trade if necessary but otherwise may get the chance to earn a roster spot through training camp.

With all three plus the No. 35 pick in June's draft, that's 14 players with room for Grant or a free agent signing with the $5 million taxpayer mid-level exception.

The Celtics could look to offload Payton Pritchard and Gallinari in trade, but everyone else of note played in prominent postseason roles. Pritchard is extension-eligible until the start of the season but may not be a top priority until the bigger issues are resolved.

Blake Griffin and Mfiondu Kabengele (two-way) will be unrestricted free agents. JD Davison (also a two-way) may be restricted.

Assuming the Celtics and Brown agree to a standard maximum contract, the team must manage its finances carefully moving forward.

The Celtics have a few roster issues to iron out, notably Brown's extension and Williams' restricted free agency, but a run to the ECF should not be slept upon.

Email Eric Pincus at [e-mail] and follow him on Twitter @EricPincus.