15 Players Most Likely to Be First-Time MLB All-Stars in 2023
One of the biggest stories during MLB All-Star weekend every year is the list of players making their first career All-Star Game appearance.
Whether it's an up-and-coming name making his first of many trips, a player in his prime enjoying a breakout season or a veteran finally getting some long-overdue recognition, first-time All-Stars come in all shapes and sizes.
There were a staggering 37 first-time All-Stars in 2022, including Alejandro Kirk (TOR) and Jazz Chisholm Jr. (MIA) who were voted in as starters by the fans.
How many newcomers to the Midsummer Classic will we see this year?
Ahead, we've highlighted the 15 players most likely to be first-time picks this year, based on production, the depth of candidates at their position, and other viable candidates on their own roster who could claim a spot.
Let's start with some honorable mentions.
Honorable Mentions
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Pitchers
RP Félix Bautista, BAL
SP Alex Cobb, SF
RP Camilo Doval, SF
SP Bryce Elder, ATL
RP Carlos Estévez, LAA
SP Josiah Gray, WAS
SP George Kirby, SEA
RP Alex Lange, DET
If the All-Star Game were tomorrow, Alex Cobb and Bryce Elder would almost certainly be part of the NL roster. That said, both have some regression red flags, with Cobb walking five batters in 3.1 innings last time out and Elder sporting a 1.35 WHIP in his last three starts, so it's less certain they will still be in that position a month from now.
Hitters
OF Corbin Carroll, ARI
C Elias Díaz, COL
2B Thairo Estrada, SF
SS Wander Franco, TB
C Jonah Heim, TEX
2B Nico Hoerner, CHC
OF Jarred Kelenic, SEA
OF Josh Lowe, TB
OF Brandon Nimmo, NYM
C Adley Rutschman, BAL
OF Alex Verdugo, BOS
OF Masataka Yoshida, BOS
There is little doubt Wander Franco and Corbin Carroll will make multiple Midsummer Classic appearances in the coming years. However, both rising stars have fallen off a bit of late. Franco has seen his OPS drop from .909 in April to .711 in May, while Carroll is batting .196 in his last 15 games. That's enough to wonder if they might have to wait at least one more year.
OF Randy Arozarena, Tampa Bay Rays
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Stats: 205 PA, 170 OPS+ .308/.405/.552, 19 XBH (11 HR), 37 RBI, 2.0 WAR
With all due respect to Wander Franco, Shane McClanahan and the many other standout players on the Tampa Bay Rays roster this season, Randy Arozarena is the face of the franchise right now.
A postseason hero in 2020, the AL Rookie of the Year in 2021, a 20-homer, 32-steal standout last season and a World Baseball Classic standout in March, the 28-year-old has quickly developed into one of the best all-around outfielders in the sport.
An uptick in his walk rate from 7.1 to 11.7 percent has helped him take his offensive game to another level, and Arozarena deserves to be part of the American League's starting lineup at this year's All-Star Game.
RHP Yennier Cano, Baltimore Orioles
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Stats: 19 G, 3/3 SV, 9 HLD, 0.38 ERA, 0.30 WHIP, 9.9 K/9, 23.2 IP, 1.8 WAR
Yennier Cano has retired 68 of the 75 batters he has faced this season, allowing just seven hits and one hit-by-pitch in 23.2 innings of work as a breakout star in the Baltimore Orioles bullpen.
The Cuban defector struggled to an 11.50 ERA in 13 appearances in his MLB debut last season, but an adjustment to his arm slot has made his sinker-changeup combination virtually unhittable.
Closer Félix Bautista is also a candidate to be a first-time All-Star this year, but assuming only one Baltimore reliever gets a spot on the roster, Cano is the more deserving choice amid a brilliant breakout season.
RHP Alexis Díaz, Cincinnati Reds
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Stats: 19 G, 10/10 SV, 1 HLD, 1.93 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 16.9 K/9, 18.2 IP, 1.3 WAR
Cincinnati Reds closer Alexis Díaz has been, arguably, the most overpowering relief pitcher in baseball this season.
The 26-year-old leads all pitchers who have tallied at least 10 innings with a 48.6 percent strikeout rate, leaning on a lethal wipeout slider that has generated a 50 percent whiff rate and was the final pitch on 25 of his 35 strikeouts.
Aside from his stellar numbers, he is also far and away the best candidate to be chosen from the Reds roster, which only further improves his chances of earning a spot on the NL roster.
1B Yandy Díaz, Tampa Bay Rays
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Stats: 181 PA, 188 OPS+, .322/.425/.599, 20 XBH (11 HR), 27 RBI, 2.0 WAR
Yandy Díaz leads the American League in batting average (.325), on-base percentage (.425) and OPS+ (188), as he is not only a strong candidate for his first All-Star selection but also a bona fide AL MVP candidate.
The 31-year-old was one of baseball's elite contact hitters last year, tallying more walks (78) than strikeouts (60) over 558 plate appearances while batting .296 with a .401 on-base percentage.
The difference this year has been a major spike in his power production. His 11 home runs are already just three off his career-high, and his hard-hit rate has sky-rocketed from 49.0 to 57.1 percent to rank among the MLB leaders in that category.
RHP Zac Gallen, Arizona Diamondbacks
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Stats: 10 GS, 6-2, 2.95 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 12 BB, 72 K, 61.0 IP, 1.1 WAR
Arizona Diamondbacks ace Zac Gallen was, arguably, the best pitcher in baseball during the second half last season, going 8-2 with a 1.49 ERA, 0.74 WHIP and 103 strikeouts in 90.1 innings over his final 14 starts.
The 27-year-old has dealt with a few bumps in the road this year, including a rocky first two starts and an ugly outing in his last start when he allowed eight hits and eight runs (five earned) in 3.2 innings against the Pittsburgh Pirates.
However, in between Gallen rattled off a 28-inning scoreless streak, and he leads the majors with a 1.99 FIP and a 6.0 strikeout-to-walk ratio, which serves as a good indication that his peak success this season will be the norm rather than an outlier.
IF/DH Nolan Gorman, St. Louis Cardinals
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Stats: 166 PA, 180 OPS+, .301/.392/.636, 22 XBH (13 HR), 39 RBI, 2.0 WAR
Nolan Gorman has split his time between second base (18 games), designated hitter (18 games) and third base (eight games), and it will be interesting to see where he appears on the All-Star Game ballot.
If he's on the ballot as a DH, the 23-year-old might be the front-runner to earn the starting nod, but either way he belongs on the NL roster.
The NL leader in slugging (.636), OPS (1.028) and OPS+ (180), he has delivered on the tantalizing power potential he showed during his time in the minors to emerge as a central figure in the St. Louis Cardinals lineup.
RHP Mitch Keller, Pittsburgh Pirates
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Stats: 10 GS, 5-1, 2.44 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 14 BB, 77 K, 62.2 IP, 1.9 WAR
Mitch Keller was the No. 12 prospect in baseball at the start of the 2018 season, and he appeared on the Baseball America Top 100 prospect list for four straight seasons during his time in the Pittsburgh Pirates minor league system.
The 27-year-old took his lumps during his first three seasons as a big leaguer, going 7-17 with a 6.02 ERA in 39 starts, but he turned a corner last season when he logged a 3.91 ERA with 138 strikeouts in a career-high 159 innings.
He has been nothing short of brilliant for the Pirates this season, ranking among the NL leaders in ERA (2.44, fourth), WHIP (0.97, second), strikeouts (77, second) and innings pitched (62.2, second), and if the Pirates only wind up with one representative it should be Keller.
C Sean Murphy, Atlanta Braves
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Stats: 167 PA, 154 OPS+, .273/.395/.554, 19 XBH (10 HR), 36 RBI, 1.8 WAR
Sean Murphy had an excellent four-year run with the Oakland Athletics, including a 2022 season where he hit .250/.332/.426 for a 122 OPS+ with 37 doubles, 18 home runs, 66 RBI and 3.5 WAR in 148 games.
The Atlanta Braves sent top pitching prospects Kyle Muller, Royber Salinas and Freddy Tarnok to the Oakland Athletics and All-Star William Contreras to the Milwaukee Brewers to acquire him in a three-team deal during the offseason, and that is shaping up to be one of the best moves of the winter.
The 28-year-old will have some competition for the starting nod from Los Angeles Dodgers star Will Smith, but he should find his way onto the NL roster one way or another.
OF Luis Robert Jr., Chicago White Sox
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Stats: 197 PA, 137 OPS+, .268/.325/.559, 26 XBH (13 HR), 29 RBI, 2.7 WAR
It's easy to forget that Chicago White Sox center fielder Luis Robert Jr. has never been an All-Star, as there was no All-Star Game during his terrific rookie season in 2020 and he has battled injuries the past two years.
The 25-year-old has been healthy and productive this season, though, and his production is trending up in a big way with a .352/.425/.789 line and eight home runs in 20 games during the month of May.
Someone has to make the AL roster from the disappointing White Sox, and Robert is really the only deserving candidate right now, which further improves his chances of being selected for the first time.
LHP Eduardo Rodríguez, Detroit Tigers
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Stats: 9 GS, 4-3, 2.06 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 12 BB, 52 K, 56.2 IP, 2.2 WAR
It sure feels like Eduardo Rodriguez has been an All-Star before, doesn't it?
The 30-year-old pitched well enough during his time with the Boston Red Sox to earn a five-year, $77 million deal from the Detroit Tigers in free agency prior to last year, and he finished sixth in AL Cy Young voting in 2019 when he went 19-6 with a 3.81 ERA and 213 strikeouts in 203.1 innings, yet he has never been to the Midsummer Classic.
Rodriguez already has four appearances this season where he has pitched at least seven innings without allowing an earned run, and after a rough first season in Detroit his contract now looks like an absolute steal.
The Tigers need a representative, and while closer Alex Lange is having a nice season, E-Rod is the obvious choice.
OF Brent Rooker, Oakland Athletics
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Stats: 173 PA, 164 OPS+, .276/.382/.552, 18 XBH (11 HR), 32 RBI, 1.5 WAR
The 2023 Oakland Athletics are not just the worst team in baseball, but the worst team we've seen in years and on track to be talked about alongside the 2003 Detroit Tigers as the most inept club of the 2000s.
Still, someone has to represent them in the All-Star Game.
Brent Rooker was a first-round pick in 2017, but he never carved out a regular role with the Minnesota Twins and he's bounced around a bit in recent years before finding a home in the middle of the Oakland lineup.
The 28-year-old has gone just 4-for-32 with 12 strikeouts in his last nine games, so that's worth keeping an eye on as the league starts to make adjustments to his hot start, but it's going to take a dramatic fall-off for him to not be the pick for the woeful Athletics.
RHP Joe Ryan, Minnesota Twins
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Stats: 9 GS, 6-1, 2.25 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 8 BB, 66 K, 56.0 IP, 2.1 WAR
The Tampa Bay Rays have come out ahead time and time again in trades over the past several years, but the 2021 deadline deal that sent a young Joe Ryan to the Minnesota Twins in exchange for two months of Nelson Cruz looks like a major misstep.
The 26-year-old joined the rotation full-time last season and went 13-7 with a 3.55 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 151 strikeouts over 147 innings in a rock-solid rookie campaign, and now he has emerged as a true frontline starter in the Minnesota rotation.
His 66-to-8 strikeout-to-walk ratio speaks to his impressive mix of command and stuff, and he is tied with eight others for the MLB lead with eight quality starts through his first nine appearances.
C Will Smith, Los Angeles Dodgers
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Stats: 138 PA, 151 OPS+, .297/.399/.541, 13 XBH (7 HR), 24 RBI, 1.6 WAR
It's hard to believe Will Smith has never been an All-Star.
The 28-year-old entered the 2023 season with a 130 OPS+ for his career over parts of four MLB seasons, and he tallied a career-high 4.1 WAR with 26 doubles, 24 home runs and 87 RBI as one of the premier offensive catchers in the game last year.
He missed 13 games in April with a concussion, so he does not currently have enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title, yet he still ranks near the top in most offensive categories among catchers.
With Sean Murphy (ATL) looking like a lock for a spot on the roster and Elias Díaz (COL) one of the few worthy candidates for the Rockies, there's an outside chance he could get snubbed again, but the NL has had three catchers on the roster last year.
LHP Justin Steele, Chicago Cubs
15 of 16
Stats: 10 GS, 6-1, 2.20 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 16 BB, 53 K, 61.1 IP, 2.2 WAR
Left-hander Justin Steele had a nice under-the-radar 2022 season, posting a 3.18 ERA with 126 strikeouts in 119 innings, but even after that strong showing few were expecting such a drastic step forward this year.
The 27-year-old has done a fantastic job limiting hard contact. His 25.1 percent hard-hit rate ranks 14th in the majors and tops among all starting pitchers, and with a strong defense behind him that has been the key to his success.
After allowing a season-high five earned runs in six innings against the Houston Astros on May 16, he bounced back with six scoreless innings his next time out on Sunday against the Philadelphia Phillies, proving he won't be derailed by the first real hiccup he's faced in 2023.
RHP Spencer Strider, Atlanta Braves
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Stats: 9 GS, 4-1, 2.96 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 18 BB, 86 K, 51.2 IP, 1.5 WAR
Spencer Strider is essentially a two-pitch pitcher, with a fastball that averages 97.0 mph and a slider that has generated a 54.7 percent whiff rate and a .127 opponents' batting average, though he does also mix in the occasional changeup.
That high-octane stuff has quickly made the 24-year-old one of baseball's best pitchers, and he currently leads the majors with 86 strikeouts in 51.2 innings, tallying nine or more strikeouts in seven of his nine starts this year.
His ERA is a bit higher than some of the other pitchers on this list, but it's still solid, and his peripheral numbers are nothing short of elite. Expect 2023 to be the first of many All-Star Game trips for the young starter.
All stats courtesy of Baseball Reference and accurate through Monday's games.
