2012 NFL Draft: Overrated Players Who'll Slip out of the First Round

With the 2011 NFL regular season now a thing of the past, most of the NFL's teams will turn their attention to the NFL draft now.

The question they'll be asking themselves is which players are truly worth millions of dollars every year. Especially the first-rounders, who are going to command more millions than all the rest.

Here's a helpful hint for all 32 teams: Some guys who are supposed to go in the first round really shouldn't go in the first round. The pundits may like them, but they're not the ones who will be dishing out the dough.

Below are five players that are overrated and shouldn't be drafted in the first round.

5. Nick Toon, WR, Wisconsin

Before we proceed any further, I will confess I've had Nick Toon going in the first round in some of my recent mocks. He's not a star, but he would seem to be a good fit for a team looking for a complementary or situational wide receiver.

The trouble is that an NFL team would have to take it on faith that Toon is capable of being useful in such capacities. He's been productive during his college career, but he hasn't exactly been prolific.

A lot of that can be chalked up to Wisconsin's run-heavy offense, to be sure, but it's more than a little alarming that Toon didn't dominate in 2011 despite having a pass-completing machine in Russell Wilson as his quarterback.

Once you realize this, you start to realize Toon doesn't bring any notable skills to the table. He's not a burner or a leaper, and he's not exactly versatile. 

All things considered, teams interested in Toon can wait until the second or third round to go for him. He has the potential to be a solid player, but that doesn't make him worth first-round money.

4. Mark Barron, SS, Alabama

I actually feel kinda bad about including Mark Barron on this list, as he's a joy to watch and I think he's a pretty good player.

My problem with Barron is that he's a little one-dimensional. He's a heavy hitter and an aggressive wild man, but not much else. In the NFL, Barron's going to have to work on his coverage skills.

I'm well aware some scouts disagree. Case in point, ESPN's Todd McShay thinks Barron can indeed "play the point in coverage." If so, there's no reason to think he couldn't cut it in the pass-happy NFL.

Here's the thing, though: When I last checked, the SEC is a little short on top-shelf quarterbacks these days. In fact, only one SEC quarterback threw for more than 3,000 yards, whereas the conference had four backs who rushed for 1,000 yards and nine who rushed for at least 700 yards.

It therefore makes sense that Barron gets a lot of praise for his ability to help in run support. It's in his interest to be good at it.

Barron could be a great strong safety one day, but he needs work. If teams have any sense, he'll be there in the second round.

3. Brandon Thompson, DT, Clemson

To my recollection, Brandon Thompson started the 2011 season as a projected top-10 pick. Throughout the course of the 2011 campaign, he started to slide down big boards.

But there are some scouts (i.e. McShay) who still view Thompson as a top-32 player, which of course puts him in first-round territory.

That's not where he belongs, even in a class that is pretty weak at defensive tackle. Thompson is definitely one of the better DTs in the 2012 draft class, but he hasn't been productive enough at Clemson to earn a first-round paycheck.

You typically don't want to put too much stock into numbers, but it's pretty telling that Thompson has not put up dominant numbers in his college career. In four seasons, he managed just five sacks and 15 tackles for loss.

A sudden drop in production would be understandable, as high-profile defensive linemen tend to get double- and triple-teamed, but Thompson's production has never spiked. In a word, he has underachieved.

2. Janoris Jenkins, CB, North Alabama

Right now, Janoris Jenkins is a victim of a couple different sets of circumstances.

Most of them are his own fault. Nobody denies that Jenkins has talent, but he seems to be a classic "million-dollar talent, 10-cent head" prospect. 

This reputation stems mainly from Jenkins' dismissal from the University of Florida in the spring of 2011. He was arrested for marijuana possession twice in three months, a short span of time that signaled Jenkins just didn't get it.

Jenkins has apparently straightened out his act and has played well at North Alabama, but good play against Division II competition just isn't worth all that much.

The other problem facing Jenkins is there are other cornerbacks who are going to be getting attention for late-first-round picks, and none of them have Jenkins' character concerns.

Teams may as well target one of them.

1. Dwayne Allen, TE, Clemson

Given what Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski managed to accomplish in 2011, you have to figure a lot of teams are on the lookout for the next great pass-catching tight end.

To that end, Clemson's Dwayne Allen stands out in a big way. He caught 48 passes for 577 yards and eight touchdowns in 2011, making him one of the most productive tight ends in the country.

And because Allen has good speed and good athleticism, he looms large on the NFL draft radar.

What a lot of people are overlooking is that Allen is just OK in terms of his blocking abilities, and it's not a good idea to fall in love with his numbers.

I say so because Clemson had some pretty good talent around Allen in 2011. Sammy Watkins had a brilliant freshman campaign and DeAndre Hopkins had nearly 900 receiving yards. Defenses were more concerned with containing them than they were with containing Allen.

So as good as Allen is, he's being more than a little over-hyped. He should go in the second round, a la Kyle Rudolph in 2011.