2012 NFL Draft: Why Robert Griffin III Will Fail in the NFL

Can we please cool it with Robert Griffin III?

The Heisman trophy winner is a media darling right now because of his video game-like statistics for the Baylor Bears. His 4,293 passing yards and 37 TDs with only six interceptions certainly is something to be proud of. After leading the Bears to an eye-popping 67-56 win over Washington in the Alamo Bowl, the nation has fallen in love with RGIII as his draft stock continues to sky-rocket.

While the fourth-year junior hasn’t officially put his name into the 2012 NFL draft, all signs point to RGIII making the jump. In addition to his athletic tools, he is a well-spoken, polite kid who would be more than capable of being the face of a franchise.

What’s not to like? Plenty.

The problem is that RGIII is a long ways away from sniffing success at the pro level. His mechanics are raw, and a slow release will handicap him at the next level. He is listed at 6'2", 200 pounds and is going to be undersized for a quarterback who likes to run. His durability is a question mark if he plans on tucking the ball and taking on NFL linebackers with any regularity.

Think Atlanta Falcons Michael Vick with less polish as a passer. Griffin had to leave a game this season with a concussion, and he missed all but three games in the 2009 season with a knee injury. His durability should drop him out of the lottery, but it won’t.

The NFL is a copy-cat league, and scouts watch the success of unorthodox QBs like Cam Newton and Tim Tebow and assume they can win with a mobile quarterback again. However, both Newton and Tebow are about 40 pounds heavier than Griffin III. They can handle the physical pounding more so than RGIII.

The lack of defense in the Big 12 is something that can’t be ignored either. Four of the top 11 offenses in the country derived from the conference. Every week turned into a shootout in this conference, and that will obviously inflate quarterbacks' stats significantly.

If RGIII does in fact end up going in the top 10, he is going to be a long-term project that needs a lot of time to develop. With the win-now mentality of the NFL, the pressure is going to be on from day one.

While he is an intriguing prospect if a team has the patience to develop him, he’s not going to get the results expected from a top-10 draft pick.