Ranking the Top 10 MLB Cy Young Candidates in AL and NL
The quest for a Cy Young Award in Major League Baseball might be the biggest "it's a marathon, not a sprint" situation in all of sports.
While a hitter can catch fire for a few days and drastically improve his MVP case almost overnight—see: Aaron Judge hitting four home runs in three games—assembling a Cy Young resume is more of a slow grind in which avoiding rough patches is more important than putting together hot streaks.
Then again, Framber Valdez tossed 25 consecutive quality starts last season and finished fifth in the AL Cy Young vote, so there's more to it than just avoiding the occasional dud.
In our early top 10 list of Cy Young candidates from each league, current marks in ERA, WHIP and K/9 reign supreme. How each pitcher fared in previous seasons and how their peripheral metrics like xFIP look also factored into the equation, as this is inherently a guessing game for how things will go for the next four-plus months.
One thing we don't really care about, though, is wins. Both individual W's and team success certainly can enhance a pitcher's chances, but Sandy Alcantara went 14-9 for a 69-win team last season and unanimously won the NL Cy Young. Jacob deGrom went 10-9 for a 77-win team in 2018 and got 29 of 30 first-place votes. You can win a Cy Young without winning many games.
AL Honorable Mentions: Shane Bieber, Luis Castillo, Kevin Gausman, Cristian Javier, George Kirby, Framber Valdez
NL Honorable Mentions: Corbin Burnes, Bryce Elder, Jesús Luzardo, Dustin May*, Max Scherzer, Marcus Stroman, Julio Urías, Zack Wheeler
*May was a top-five candidate in the NL prior to Wednesday's news that he'll be out for at least a month with an elbow injury.
The Rookie of the Year Candidates Who Might Get Some Cy Young Consideration
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AL No. 10: Bryce Miller, RHP, Seattle Mariners (2-0, 19.0 IP, 0.47 ERA, 0.42 WHIP, 8.5 K/9)
NL No. 10: Kodai Senga, RHP, New York Mets (4-2, 43.0 IP, 3.77 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 11.5 K/9)
Even more improbable than a closer winning the Cy Young (more on that shortly) is a rookie winning the Cy Young. It has happened just once in MLB history, when Fernando Valenzuela fired eight complete-game shutouts during the strike-shortened 1981 season. Even then, Valenzuela just barely edged Tom Seaver for the NL Cy Young by a three-vote margin.
In recent history, the only pitcher to come even remotely close to winning a Cy Young as a rookie was José Fernández in 2013, when he finished third with 30 percent of the NL share.
Both Justin Verlander (2006) and Jacob deGrom (2014) won Rookie of the Year without receiving a single vote for Cy Young.
But let's throw a rookie pitcher from each league into the early mix anyway.
The AL is practically overrun with pitchers who could win ROY. Houston's Hunter Brown, Cleveland's Tanner Bibee, Oakland's Mason Miller and Baltimore's Grayson Rodriguez are all viable candidates.
However, they are each looking up at Seattle's Bryce Miller, who enters Friday's start against Atlanta with just one run allowed in 19 innings of work. It's a small sample size, and not getting called up until May will hurt his case for Cy Young—as he'll start, at most, 26 games. But what an incredible start to this 24-year-old's MLB career.
Not as many candidates in the NL—even though Arizona might set some sort of record for games started by rookie pitchers. Perhaps Miami's Eury Pérez can sneak into the conversation after his recent call-up, but it might be Senga or bust here. If he can get his walks under control and remain one of the most valuable pitchers in New York's stable of stars, the ghost fork might get a few Cy Young votes.
The Obligatory Closers Who Will Get Votes Without Seriously Contending for Cy Young
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AL No. 9: Emmanuel Clase, RHP, Cleveland Guardians (1-3, 15 SV, 2.82 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 5.6 K/9)
NL No. 9: Josh Hader, LHP, San Diego Padres (0-0, 11 SV, 1.00 ERA, 0.72 WHIP, 12.0 K/9)
Closers are to the Cy Young Award what pitchers are to the MVP award—it takes something bordering on historical greatness to win it, but there is almost always at least one (though not necessarily one from each league) who finishes top 10 in the vote.
The only closer in the past three decades to actually win a Cy Young was Eric Gagne in 2003, when he went a perfect 55-of-55 in save opportunities. But in every year since 2010—when the Cy Young ballot was expanded for voters to choose a top five instead of just a top three—at least one closer has finished in the top 10.
It is super early in the year to try to identify this year's top candidates among relief pitchers, so it only makes sense to roll with the ones racking up the most saves.
Clase has already blown four saves, has a bit of an unsightly ERA for a closer and has generated even fewer strikeouts than usual. But he has 15 saves, which is both four more than the next-closest reliever and pretty much the only reason Cleveland still has any hope of winning the AL Central.
Hader has been much more dominant than Clase en route to sitting in a tie with San Francisco's Camilo Doval for the NL lead in saves. Through his first 15 appearances, Hader had a 0.60 ERA and a 0.67 WHIP with 11 saves.
However, he recently blew two straight save opportunities, and we can't forget this is the guy who started last season with 18 consecutive appearances in which he recorded a save without allowing a single run...prior to allowing 25 earned runs in 13.0 innings from July 4 to August 28. Let's see if he can avoid a similar implosion this year.
The Currently/Recently Injured Aces Who Must Remain on the Radar
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AL No. 8: Jacob deGrom, RHP, Texas Rangers (2-0, 30.1 IP, 2.67 ERA, 0.76 WHIP, 13.4 K/9)
NL No. 8: Justin Verlander, RHP, New York Mets (1-1, 17.0 IP, 4.76 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 7.9 K/9)
Health is an unspoken crucial factor in the Cy Young deliberation process.
Every single starting pitcher who received at least one vote last season made at least 28 starts. And if you're going to miss four or more starts, you need to do something special to have any hope of winning the Cy Young—such as Verlander leading the majors in both ERA and WHIP in his return from Tommy John surgery last season, or Clayton Kershaw leading the majors in wins, ERA, WHIP and K/9 in 27 starts in 2014.
With that in mind, things are already looking bleak for this pair of multiple-time Cy Young recipients.
However, we cannot rule out deGrom or Verlander of the mix just yet.
DeGrom just recently threw off a mound for the first time since April 28 and doesn't appear to be imminently nearing a return to the rotation, so it's probably only a matter of time before injury knocks him out of the conversation for a third straight year.
What a shame, too. He has only been able to make 32 starts since the beginning of 2021, but he has done so with a 2.03 ERA, a 0.65 WHIP and a 14.1 K/9. No one is more dominant when healthy, but he simply hasn't been in a while.
Verlander has only made three starts to deGrom's six, but at least he is currently healthy after missing New York's first 31 games. Best-case scenario, he makes 27 starts. But that might be enough if he can put up numbers anywhere close to where he finished last season (1.75 ERA, 0.83 WHIP). And though he got roughed up for six earned runs by the Rays on Tuesday, at least in his first two starts, the 40-year-old showed he still has Cy Young-level stuff.
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The Central Division Guys Who Kind of Came Out of Nowhere
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AL No. 7: Joe Ryan, RHP, Minnesota Twins (6-1, 50.0 IP, 2.16 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, 10.3 K/9)
AL No. 6: Sonny Gray, RHP, Minnesota Twins (4-0, 49.1 IP, 1.64 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 10.9 K/9)
AL No. 5: Eduardo Rodriguez, LHP, Detroit Tigers (4-3, 56.2 IP, 2.06 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 8.3 K/9)
NL No. 7: Mitch Keller, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates (5-1, 56.2 IP, 2.38 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 11.0 K/9)
NL No. 6: Justin Steele, LHP, Chicago Cubs (6-1, 55.1 IP, 2.44 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 7.6 K/9)
All five of these pitchers were at least respectable in 2022, each posting an ERA ranging from 3.08 to 4.05 and a WHIP in the 1.10 to 1.40 range.
But with the possible exception of Joe Ryan—who opened the year at +5900 to win the AL Cy Young, per Sports Betting Dime—no member of this quintet was even remotely in the preseason conversation for a Cy Young or an ERA title.
With more than a quarter of the regular season in the books, though, they have emerged as realistic threats, each entering play Thursday ranked top-15 in fWAR among qualified pitchers.
Of the bunch, Keller has been the biggest surprise. Over the previous three seasons, he had a 4.64 ERA, a 1.53 WHIP and a 7.9 K/9. All of a sudden, though, he's a strikeout artist who has posted a 1.00 ERA, a 0.78 WHIP and a 13.0 K/9 over his last four starts—one of which was a complete-game shutout against the Rockies.
Both Gray and Rodriguez have gotten Cy Young votes before, but not since 2019. And Rodriguez has never operated at anywhere near this level of dominance. He was "consistently decent" in his first seven seasons in the bigs, always posting an ERA between 3.81 and 4.74 and a WHIP from 1.26 to 1.39. But now he's both walking batters and allowing hits at way below his usual rates, going at least seven scoreless innings in four of his last six starts.
Last, but not least, Steele has been on one heck of a run dating back to the middle of last season. He missed all of September with lower-back issues, but he had a 1.49 ERA over his final 10 starts, and Tuesday's start in Houston (5 ER in 6.0 IP) was the first time he allowed four or more earned runs in a game since June 23. Marcus Stroman and Jameson Taillon are the ones making the big bucks, but this southpaw is almost indisputably the ace of the staff.
The 'Better Than Most Candidates, but Not Quite the Favorites' Tier
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AL No. 4: Nathan Eovaldi, RHP, Texas Rangers (5-2, 60.1 IP, 2.83 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 9.1 K/9)
NL No. 5: Sandy Alcantara, RHP, Miami Marlins (1-4, 51.1 IP, 4.91 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 8.6 K/9)
NL No. 4: Alex Cobb, RHP, San Francisco Giants (3-1, 51.0 IP, 1.94 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 7.8 K/9)
NL No. 3: Clayton Kershaw, LHP, Los Angeles Dodgers (6-3, 53.2 IP, 2.52 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 10.6 K/9)
Right off the bat, let's acknowledge that Alcantara's numbers don't look great, as he got torched for nine earned runs in an April 10 loss to the Phillies. But the reigning NL Cy Young winner tossed a complete-game shutout against the Twins and recently took another one into the ninth inning against the Cubs before running out of gas. He almost certainly wouldn't get any votes if ballots were due today, but he's still a strong candidate who could get back into the mix in a hurry.
On a tier of his own just behind the AL favorites is Eovaldi, who recently went on an unbelievable run and is quite unexpectedly second in the majors in total innings pitched.
From 2011 to '22, he had never made multiple starts in the same season in which he went at least eight scoreless innings. But he did it in back-to-back-to-back games, including a complete-game shutout of the New York Yankees. Eovaldi entered that stretch with a 5.20 ERA, so we'll see what kind of staying power he has in the Cy Young conversation. But the fourth-place finisher in the 2021 AL vote has a strong pulse for now.
Speaking of "we'll see what kind of staying power he has," how about Cobb leading the NL with a 1.94 ERA through nine starts? In three of those starts, he didn't even make it out of the fourth inning. But he also tossed a complete-game shutout against the Cardinals before going at least seven scoreless innings against both the Brewers and Diamondbacks. At 35 years old, he's doing some of the best pitching of his career.
Same goes for Kershaw, which is really saying something.
The three-time Cy Young winner went at least six innings in each of his six starts in April, ending the month with a 1.89 ERA. Declining stuff isn't the reason Kershaw hasn't finished top-five in a Cy Young vote in the past five years, but rather the inability to stay healthy. So far, so good on that front.
The 3 Favorites to Win AL Cy Young
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AL No. 3: Shane McClanahan, LHP, Tampa Bay Rays (7-0, 50.0 IP, 2.34 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 11.0 K/9)
AL No. 2: Shohei Ohtani, RHP, Los Angeles Angels (5-1, 53.0 IP, 3.23 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 12.1 K/9)
AL No. 1: Gerrit Cole, RHP, New York Yankees (5-0, 62.2 IP, 2.01 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 9.8 K/9)
It would be a bit much to say that Ohtani is in a slump on the mound, but he has at least come back to earth in recent weeks, allowing at least three earned runs in four consecutive starts after allowing two total runs in his first 28 innings. He still has a WHIP of 1.00 and a K/9 of 11.9 during those four starts, but he has struggled to keep the ball in the yard, allowing eight home runs for a 6.12 ERA.
Simultaneously, Cole has encountered a rough patch of his own. He finished April at 5-0 with a 1.11 ERA and a complete-game shutout to his credit, but the Yankees ace has a 3.68 ERA in his last four trips to the mound, failing to make it out of the sixth inning or factor into the decision in any of those games.
Those two remain the early favorites for the AL Cy Young, but their recent struggles have left the door open for McClanahan to turn this into a three-horse race. His walk rate is more than double what it was last season, but everything else is looking good, as he allowed two or fewer runs in each of his first eight starts before giving up four in Yankee Stadium his last time out.
Cole remains the favorite, because he typically pitches deeper into games than McClanahan and because he will likely make at least two more starts (more opportunity for counting stats) than Ohtani by virtue of not getting five days of rest in between each start. But this should be a fascinating battle to monitor throughout the summer.
The Co-Favorites to Win NL Cy Young
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NL No. 2: Zac Gallen, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks (6-1, 57.1 IP, 2.35 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 11.0 K/9)
NL No. 1: Spencer Strider, RHP, Atlanta Braves (4-1, 51.2 IP, 2.96 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 15.0 K/9)
There's quite the 1A and 1B situation brewing in the National League between Gallen and Strider.
The former started slow, posting a 7.59 ERA in his first two starts against the Dodgers and Padres. But since then, he has been perhaps the biggest reason that Arizona is still sitting pretty for what would be its first postseason berth since 2017. Gallen has a 1.16 ERA in his last seven starts, racking up six wins and 60 strikeouts against just four walks during that time. (He's also leading the majors in birds hit by baseballs.)
But if you want to talk strikeouts, you've got to talk Strider.
Atlanta's 24-year-old ace whiffed at least one-third of the batters he has faced in each of his first eight starts, boasting the best strikeout rate in the majors by a laughable margin.
Excluding the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign, only three pitchers in MLB history have pitched enough innings to qualify for the ERA title while also posting a K/9 of 13.0 or better: 1999 Pedro Martinez (13.2), 2001 Randy Johnson (13.4) and 2019 Gerrit Cole (13.8).
Suffice it to say, 15.0 K/9 is preposterous, and Strider will run away with the Cy Young Award if he can come anywhere close to maintaining that rate for the rest of the season. Considering he finished last year at 13.8 K/9 in 131.2 innings pitched, it's plausible. (And it is categorically unfair that Atlanta is only paying $1 million for his services in each of 2023 and 2024.)
Statistics current through the start of play Friday.
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