What We Learned About Every NFL Contender in 2023 Offseason
This offseason tells you a lot about an NFL team.
The moves teams made in and around free agency and the draft shed light on where they're coming from, where they intend to go and, oftentimes, where they think they're at when it comes to contending for the Vince Lombardi Trophy.
With both the heart of the free-agent period and the draft in the books, here's what we've learned about the nine teams with the best Super Bowl odds (+2000 or higher) at DraftKings entering the quiet(er) stage of the offseason.
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Kansas City Chiefs
1 of 9
They believe Patrick Mahomes can be Superman, and he'll have to be
The Kansas City Chiefs always knew they'd have to rely heavily on Mahomes as the 2020s progressed, and that is especially the case now that his next five salary-cap hits will average out to just south of $50 million.
With cap space tight and draft capital limited in the wake of a Super Bowl season, the Chiefs weren't able to do much to bolster Mahomes' supporting cast. But we've also seen teams (i.e., the previous champion Los Angeles Rams) mortgage the future and go all-in for short-term success, and the Chiefs aren't doing that.
They aren't selling off all of their prime draft picks or bending the cap to increase their chances right now, which indicates they think they're good enough with their two-time MVP to remain a sustained contender for years to come.
Will it pay off? Well, they remain the favorites to win next year's title, and Mahomes remains on track to become one of the most accomplished players in league history. But it's still somewhat of a gamble because this does remain a team sport.
Philadelphia Eagles
2 of 9
They're going to contend for years to come
A lot changes quickly in this league, but the Philadelphia Eagles look uniquely positioned to contend in 2023 without having made many long-term sacrifices.
That's what happens when you not only bring back current key veterans Jason Kelce, James Bradberry, Darius Slay and Brandon Graham, but you do so without committing significant long-term money to any of them while also investing in awesome potential long-term contributors like D'Andre Swift (via trade) and Jalen Carter and Nolan Smith (via Round 1).
So long as Howie Roseman's draft and acquisition track record holds up and Jalen Hurts remains on top of his game, these Eagles will be in the Super Bowl picture. That could easily span the remainder of this decade.
San Francisco 49ers
3 of 9
They don't need complete quarterback clarity to contend
It's apparent that's what the San Francisco 49ers believe, considering the amount of mystery that still surrounds their quarterback depth chart, and they might be right. This is a team that cycled through three starting quarterbacks and still wound up in the NFC Championship Game last season.
Rumors continue to circle regarding a potential Trey Lance trade after injuries held the 2021 first-round pick back the last two seasons, but preferred starter Brock Purdy is also coming off a major injury and hasn't got much of an NFL resume as a 2022 seventh-round selection. Still, they didn't address the position in the draft and added question marks Sam Darnold and Brandon Allen in free agency.
It's entirely possible there will be another quarterback shuffle in San Francisco this season, but there's no indication the 49ers are panicking in fear of that scenario.
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Buffalo Bills
4 of 9
They aren't satisfied with what they had to offer offensively
There's no doubt the Buffalo Bills had one of the top offenses in the NFL, with quarterback Josh Allen leading the charge in 2022, but that unit sometimes lacked dimensions and disappeared too often as a result.
This offseason, they got proactive about opening up the offense to more possibilities while generally adding support for Allen by trading up in the first round for tight end Dalton Kincaid and signing running back Damien Harris and wide receiver Deonte Harty in free agency.
Throw in that they arguably upgraded both guard spots with second-round pick O'Cyrus Torrence and open-market pickup Connor McGovern, and you certainly can't claim the Bills are sitting on their hands. Let's see if it pays off for them.
Cincinnati Bengals
5 of 9
They're focused on stopping Mahomes (and Allen?), and it just might work
Only three teams recorded fewer sacks last season than the Cincinnati Bengals, despite the fact Cincinnati had plenty of edge-rushing talent with Trey Hendrickson, Sam Hubbard, Joseph Ossai in place.
With the addition of pro-ready first-round pick Myles Murphy, they're stocking up to go after Mahomes and Allen when they go head-to-head with the other two clear-cut heavyweights this season.
Of course, they've also learned how critical it is to protect their own quarterback, and adding left tackle Orlando Brown Jr. at just over $16 million a year was a coup for a team that is now much stronger in the trenches. The Bengals aren't messing around, and they might finally have the ideal recipe in place if Day 2 picks DJ Turner II and Jordan Battle can help them forget about the departed Jesse Bates III and Vonn Bell.
New York Jets
6 of 9
They believe Aaron Rodgers can pull a Tom Brady
That alone has to be pretty obvious with the New York Jets, considering the financial cost associated with Rodgers' acquisition.
That made it tough for Gang Green to navigate elsewhere in free agency, which means Rodgers will have to prove that his recent inability to deliver for the Green Bay Packers had more to do with those circumstances than anything else.
Could a new environment with new weapons and defense that ranked fifth last season in total DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) at Football Outsiders help Rodgers achieve what Brady achieved in his first season with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at a similar point in his career? It's certainly possible, but it's still fair to be concerned about the offensive line, as well as the fact Rodgers very well could be declining too quickly at this point in his career.
Dallas Cowboys
7 of 9
They believe Dak Prescott can put it back together
Otherwise, you certainly would have expected the Dallas Cowboys to do more to increase support for a quarterback who earns top dollar but hasn't been a Pro Bowler since 2018 and has struggled with injuries and inconsistency the last few years.
Gone are Ezekiel Elliott, Connor McGovern and Dalton Schultz, with only Brandin Cooks joining the offense. Not exactly exciting, considering that Cooks looks to be beyond his prime. Meanwhile, they addressed the offense with just one pick (tight end Luke Schoonmaker) in the first four rounds of the draft.
It puts a hell of a lot on Prescott, who must stay healthy and productive throughout the 2023 season, no matter how good the Dallas defense becomes.
Detroit Lions
8 of 9
They believe they have all of the pieces in place
If the Detroit Lions didn't believe that, they wouldn't have used the No. 12 overall pick on a running back, especially with D'Andre Swift and David Montgomery on the roster (even if they later traded Swift), and they likely wouldn't have taken an off-ball linebacker in Jack Campbell later in Round 1.
The Lions shocked much of the football world in a breakout season in 2022, and it appears they believe they can afford luxury picks as a result. They made very few splashes in free agency (though they did upgrade their 30th-ranked pass defense with the additions of C.J. Gardner Johnson and Cameron Sutton) and must believe Jared Goff's promising '22 campaign indicates he's taken his game to the next level under center.
They'd better hope that's the case and that Penei Sewell, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Aidan Hutchinson are the real deal in key spots elsewhere, because the Lions are clearly all-in on that core.
Miami Dolphins
9 of 9
They're putting all of their eggs in Tua Tagovailoa's basket
And that's gotta scare Miami Dolphins fans. Because as good as Tua was when healthy in 2022, serious concerns exist about his medical history this offseason. But the team only added Mike White in free agency and didn't draft a quarterback despite the fact a ridiculous 14 signal-callers were selected.
White is a 28-year-old with eight touchdowns and 12 interceptions in his career, and nobody can count on anything from undrafted addition James Blackman.
The Dolphins have expressed concerns about Tagovailoa's concussion issues, and they reportedly intended to explore all options under center this offseason. But they haven't done much of anything there while exercising Tua's fifth-year option for 2024. It's curious.
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