MLB Trade Deadline 2023: Predicting the Biggest Names Up for Grabs
Marquee players getting traded is a glorious, frantic-webpage-refreshing summer tradition in Major League Baseball, and we've got early predictions for the biggest names on the move ahead of the August 1 trade deadline.
The mammoth name everyone has been talking about as a possible trade chip over the past year is, of course, Shohei Ohtani. And if he does get traded, it would be an even bigger deal than last year's Juan Soto blockbuster.
But even if Ohtani isn't on the move, the trade deadline always delivers.
The Chicago White Sox alone could put at least half a dozen big names on the trade block if they embrace a fire sale. Plenty of noteworthy pitchers should be available. And it's likely that 2023's breakout sensation, Brent Rooker, will be shipped out of Oakland while his value is at an all-time high.
Players are presented in no particular order. Statistics and records current through the start of play Wednesday.
Lucas Giolito, RHP, Chicago White Sox
1 of 10
Contract Situation: $10.4 million in 2023, free agent after 2023
2023 Production: 2-2, 3.59 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 9.4 K/9, 1.3 bWAR
Why Would Current Team Trade Him?
Simply put, things haven't gone according to design for the White Sox this season—nor last season—and it might be time to embrace a total rebuild.
Of Chicago's eight players hitting unrestricted free agency this November, Giolito is the most desirable on the open market. He had a down year in 2022, but he posted a 3.47 ERA from 2019 to '21 and has gotten back to that level of excellence in his age-28 season.
Chicago isn't going to get some king's ransom for a few-months rental of Giolito, but he might be the best starting pitcher on this year's trade block—assuming the Los Angeles Angels refuse to ever seriously consider parting with Shohei Ohtani. He could fetch a pretty penny for the White Sox.
Who Would Want Him?
Heck, which contender wouldn't want Giolito?
The Houston Astros, Milwaukee Brewers, New York Mets, Texas Rangers, Tampa Bay Rays and New York Yankees all have at least one key starter on the injured list for the foreseeable future, leaving them somewhat grasping at straws every fifth day. The Arizona Diamondbacks, Baltimore Orioles, Boston Red Sox and Pittsburgh Pirates would all figure to be interested as well, assuming they're still winning often enough to be buyers two-plus months from now.
If forced to project Giolito to one of those 10 teams, the smart money is probably on Houston. The Astros recently lost Luis Garcia for the year to Tommy John surgery while still waiting for the returns of José Urquidy and Lance McCullers Jr. Even without wondering if rookie Hunter Brown will hold up for the entire season, there are serious concerns about the starting rotation for the reigning champions.
Yasmani Grandal, C, Chicago White Sox
2 of 10
Contract Situation: $18.25 million in 2023, free agent after 2023
2023 Production: .257/.341/.413, 3 HR, 11 RBI, 0.0 bWAR
Why Would Current Team Trade Him?
See: Giolito, Lucas.
It bears mentioning that the White Sox played perhaps the toughest opening 32-game slate in the majors and that things could swing back in their favor now that they're about a week into a 29-game stretch featuring seven games against the Detroit Tigers, seven against the Kansas City Royals and six against the struggling Cleveland Guardians. Great opportunity to gain back some serious ground in MLB's worst division.
But if June 5 rolls around and the ChiSox are still hovering around 10 games below .500 and nowhere near a playoff spot, there will be no reason for them to hang on to a 34-year-old catcher who has bounced back a bit from a horrific 2022 campaign.
Who Would Want Him?
Once again, see: Giolito, Lucas, as Houston is getting next to nothing out of its catchers this season. Could see Giolito and Grandal packaged to the Astros if Martín Maldonado doesn't at least start providing some value on defense in the near future. (Grandal isn't providing any value on defense either, but at least he can hit the ball.)
The San Diego Padres would also be in the market for Grandal's services if Austin Nola continues to both hit (.158) and throw out base-stealers (3-for-29) at one of the worst clips in the majors.
And while the Seattle Mariners are pretty well set at catcher between Cal Raleigh and Tom Murphy, they would surely have some interest in acquiring Grandal to serve as a DH who can periodically give Ty France a day off from first-base duties.
Tim Anderson, SS, Chicago White Sox
3 of 10
Contract Situation: $12.5 million in 2023, $14 million club option for 2024, free agent after 2024
2023 Production: .263/.309/.329, 13 R, 5 SB, 0.0 bWAR
Why Would Current Team Trade Him?
Another White Sox player?
Another White Sox player.
Tim Anderson is the guy Chicago needs to trade if it is serious about reloading via other teams' farm systems. While impending free agents Lucas Giolito and Yasmani Grandal will generate a fair amount of interest, teams would really be willing to shell out prospects for more than a full season's worth of the 2019 MLB batting champ who was also an All-Star in both 2021 and 2022.
I've previously made this observation/comparison, but maybe the White Sox could package Anderson and Giolito for something like 85 percent of the return that the Washington Nationals got for shipping impending free agent Max Scherzer and one-year-left-before-free-agency Trea Turner to the Dodgers ahead of the 2021 deadline.
Who Would Want Him?
The team that would really want that package is the Atlanta Braves.
They were hopeful that the transition from Dansby Swanson to Vaughn Grissom would be seamless, but that has not been the case. Orlando Arcia has played well thus far (when healthy), but he accumulated a grand total of 0.4 bWAR in 433 games from 2018 to '22 and thus isn't realistically expected to keep putting up good numbers at the dish. Getting Anderson into that lineup could push them over the top.
And on the pitching front, Kyle Wright landed on the IL a week ago with a shoulder injury, and Opening Day starter Max Fried just hit the shelf for the second time in 2023, this time with a dreaded forearm strain. Michael Soroka is nearing what would be his first appearance on an MLB mound since 2020, but who knows how well that will go? Giolito would be a fantastic solution to a growing problem.
Gleyber Torres, IF, New York Yankees
4 of 10
Contract Situation: $9.95 million in 2023, arbitration-eligible in 2024, free agent after 2024
2023 Production: .256/.345/.465, 6 HR, 16 RBI, 5 SB, 0.3 bWAR
Why Would Current Team Trade Him?
It's an "excess of wealth" situation for the Yankees.
Anthony Volpe is the long-term plan at shortstop. DJ LeMahieu turns 35 in two months, but he's signed through 2026 and will be expected to handle either second or third for the foreseeable future. Oswald Peraza was a highly touted prospect who could be the long-term plan at second base. And though Oswaldo Cabrera has been predominantly at a corner outfield spot this season, he was almost exclusively an infielder throughout his time in the minors.
As a result, New York can afford to part with Torres in order to add a starting pitcher who is both healthy and capable of getting batters out.
Who Would Want Him?
The two most obvious options are the Dodgers and Mariners.
Los Angeles is still flailing in its attempt to replace the injured Gavin Lux (knee) at shortstop, and Torres could finally give the team some stability in the infield. If Torres, Tim Anderson and Amed Rosario are all available ahead of the deadline, the Yankee might be third in the pecking order on the Dodgers' wish list. But he'd figure to be a good fit there.
Seattle is the more likely candidate to trade for Torres. Kolten Wong has at least started to heat up in recent weeks, but both 2B and DH have been a season-long struggle for the M's.
Brent Rooker, DH/OF, Oakland A's
5 of 10
Contract Situation: $725,000 in 2023, pre-arbitration in 2024, hits free agency in 2028
2023 Production: .313/.431/.657, 10 HR, 26 RBI, 1.5 bWAR
Why Would Current Team Trade Him?
Because trading players providing any value is what Oakland does best.
That's a somewhat tongue-in-cheek explanation, but can the A's realistically expect Rooker to be part of their long-term rebuilding plans? The 28-year-old has been outstanding thus far this season, but in 81 games played at the MLB level from 2020 to '22, he hit .200 with a whiff rate north of 30 percent. He did club 28 homers in the minors last season, but no one realistically expected the 2017 first-round pick to make this kind of impact in 2023.
So, sell high, right?
Rooker is basically this year's version of Brandon Drury, blossoming into a potential All-Star out of seemingly nowhere. Except where Drury was an impending free agent, Rooker will still be under team control for another four years after this one. If a team believes he can help both this year and beyond, it might be willing to part with a top prospect who isn't supposed to make it to the big leagues for at least another two years.
Who Would Want Him?
If they haven't fallen out of the postseason picture by the beginning of August, the Cleveland Guardians should have some serious interest in Rooker, given what a complete disaster their right field situation has been this season. In fact, not a single Cleveland outfielder has hit multiple home runs in 2023, and no one on the entire roster has more than four. He would be a welcome addition to a scuffling lineup.
The Miami Marlins could also use an influx of offense, and they have a ton of intriguing prospects in their teens who could be key pieces for the A's five years down the road.
Alex Wood, LHP, San Francisco Giants
6 of 10
Contract Situation: $12.5 million in 2023, free agent after 2023
2023 Production: 0-0, 1.80 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 9.9 K/9, 0.2 bWAR
Why Would Current Team Trade Him?
In Alex Wood, Alex Cobb, Anthony DeSclafani, Logan Webb, Sean Manaea and Ross Stripling, the San Francisco Giants have six starting pitchers, plus the highly touted Kyle Harrison waiting in the wings to possibly get the call this season. With Wood the only one of the bunch hitting unrestricted free agency in a few months, he's the logical odd man out if they decide to make a move.
And he could get traded regardless of whether San Francisco embraces a buying or selling mentality ahead of the deadline.
If the Giants are buying, they can swap Wood for an upgrade elsewhere. They could be a landing spot for Gleyber Torres, as it does seem inevitable that the Yankees will be looking for starting pitching.
But if the Giants are selling, dumping Wood for a prospect while giving Harrison a shot in the rotation over the final two months of the season would be a no-brainer.
Who Would Want Him?
Doesn't Wood to the Baltimore Orioles feel oddly inevitable?
The O's currently have no lefties in their starting rotation. They almost certainly need to add a pitcher in order to remain a legitimate contender. And Wood is right in that Baltimore sweet spot where he's good enough to provide some value but not quite good enough to have teams lining up to both give up prospects and take on the remainder of his prorated salary.
After kind of throwing in the towel at last year's deadline, Baltimore owes it to the fans to at least take a calculated risk on this type of starter.
C.J. Cron, 1B, Colorado Rockies
7 of 10
Contract Situation: $7.25 million in 2023, free agent after 2023
2023 Production: .236/.291/.439, 6 HR, 17 RBI, -0.3 bWAR
Why Would Current Team Trade Him?
One of these years, Colorado is bound to figure out that a team going nowhere fast can trade its impending free agents to save a few bucks and add a little something to the farm system.
If this is that year, C.J. Cron would be one of the biggest names on the market.
The Rockies did recently win six out of seven games and are surely in no rush to give up all hope of accomplishing something in 2023. But it's unlikely they'll be anywhere close to playoff contention by August 1, at which point the combination of Cron's low salary and high slugging potential will intrigue a lot of suitors.
Who Would Want Him?
Both of last year's World Series combatants could benefit from picking up Cron.
Houston has gotten next to nothing out of José Abreu. He's in the first season of a three-year, $58.5 million deal, so they'll be reluctant to bench him for poor performance. If he doesn't start hitting soon, though, the Astros might need to consider something a bit drastic.
Meanwhile, Philadelphia is still figuring out its first base situation sans Rhys Hoskins (knee). Alec Bohm has been OK, but they'd rather have him at third base. At any rate, the Phillies wouldn't be entertaining the possibility of playing Bryce Harper at first if they were satisfied with that position on the depth chart.
But the most aggressive suitor for Cron could be the Guardians, who aren't exactly kicking butt and taking names with their 1B/DH platoon of Josh Bell and Josh Naylor. Cron could ignite something in what has been a lifeless offense.
Eduardo Rodriguez, LHP, Detroit Tigers
8 of 10
Contract Situation: $14 million in 2023, player option for three years and $49 million ($18 million in 2024, $16 million in 2025 and $15 million in 2026)
2023 Production: 3-2, 1.81 ERA, 0.78 WHIP, 7.9 K/9, 1.9 bWAR
Why Would Current Team Trade Him?
Eduardo Rodriguez is having one hell of a season and is doing so against a tough slate. Prior to Wednesday's start against the Guardians, his first seven appearances came against the Rays, Astros, Blue Jays, Mets, Guardians and Orioles (twice). Yet, he has already gone at least seven scoreless innings on three occasions and is well on his way to the first All-Star Game of his career.
But if and when the Tigers cool off from their hot start to May, they're going to want to sell high on a lefty who is all but guaranteed to exercise the opt-out clause in his contract to hit free agency if he continues to pitch anywhere near this well.
Who Would Want Him?
The player option will make it difficult to trade for Rodriguez.
In an ideal world, you're getting three-plus years of a solid starter at a reasonable price point. But he might walk after two months. Or he could stick you with a $49 million bill if he suffers a major injury or falls apart down the stretch.
Still, teams are bound to be interested in a guy who is pitching like an ace and who has never posted an ERA worse than 4.74 in a season.
If the Angels continue to hang around the postseason picture, that could be a great landing spot for Rodriguez, as that starting rotation has been a mess aside from Shohei Ohtani and Patrick Sandoval.
Aroldis Chapman, LHP, Kansas City Royals
9 of 10
Contract Situation: $3.75 million in 2023, free agent after 2023
2023 Production: 1-2, 2.84 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 14.2 K/9, 0.3 bWAR
Why Would Current Team Trade Him?
Save for the 8-29 Oakland A's, the 10-27 Kansas City Royals have the worst record in baseball. And, like the A's, the Royals are in the middle of a rebuild in which they should be looking to "scrap for parts" any player who isn't going to be integral to the roster for 2026 and beyond.
Simply put, this 35-year-old reliever on a one-year contract is not part of their long-term rebuilding plans.
Who Would Want Him?
Just about every contender, right?
Even if they're all set at closer, teams can always use a left-handed reliever, or a setup guy or another pitcher who can actually be trusted to bridge the sixth/seventh-inning gap from the starter to the setup guy.
And in Chapman, they'd be getting a seven-time All-Star who has reharnessed his strikeout stuff after a disappointing 2022 season—and for the low, low cost of about $1.25 million in pro-rated salary, assuming it's a deadline deal.
We'll need to wait a few months to see A) if Chapman is still pitching well and B) which team is most desperate to acquire him. As long as he's healthy, though, you can take it to the bank that he'll be on the move.
Other Big Names Who Could Be Available
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For the aforementioned nine players, we're relatively confident they'll be on the move or at least frequently mentioned in trade rumors throughout July. For these half-dozen players, it's more of a "Could see it happening if things break the right/wrong way" type of situation.
Shohei Ohtani, RHP/DH, Los Angeles Angels—Even if the Angels fall hopelessly out of the playoff conversation, it's getting hard to imagine they'll trade Ohtani. But with the team sitting three games over .500, there's no good reason to even theorize about possible trade packages for the time being.
Javier Báez, SS, Detroit Tigers—Báez has heated up in a big way since a dreadful 4-for-40 start to the season. Since April 13, he's batting .317 with three home runs and three stolen bases. But unless he can stay that hot for the next 10 weeks, it's still highly unlikely he'll get traded, in light of the four-year, $98 million player option in his contract after this season.
Michael Conforto, OF, San Francisco Giants—Conforto was hitting well early in the year, but he has been a mess at the dish dating back to April 20. Even if he does bounce back, though, that $18 million player option for 2024 might be a deal-breaker in trade negotiations.
Alexis Díaz, RHP, Cincinnati Reds—Díaz is one of the most valuable players on a team going nowhere fast, and there's always a contender or two willing to overpay for a reliever who has proved he can handle the pressure of pitching in the ninth inning. As such, Díaz has been a popular name in early trade hypotheticals. But Cincinnati will most likely just hang on to the 26-year-old, who won't hit free agency until 4.5 years from now.
Jordan Montgomery, LHP, St. Louis Cardinals—To put it lightly, St. Louis has fallen short of expectations. But even if the Cardinals don't rally from their 13-24 start to the year, their list of impending free agents mostly consists of pitchers who are largely to blame for the poor start. But Montgomery and his 3.29 ERA are the exception to the rule, which could result in him being on the move at the deadline for a second straight year. (Heck, he might even get traded back to the Yankees.)
Christian Walker, 1B, Arizona Diamondbacks—As with Ohtani, it doesn't make much sense to cook up trades involving this impending free agent on a team that is very much in the playoff picture today. If Arizona were to crash and burn, though, Walker—who is making $6.5 million this year and is arbitration-eligible for 2024—would be a popular name on the trade block with nine home runs already this season.
