Predicting Every MLB Team's Win/Loss Record for Week of May 8
The sixth full week of the 2023 Major League Baseball season should be a doozy.
There will be compelling action in the American League East, where the 28-win Tampa Bay Rays and 22-win Baltimore Orioles will meet for the first time over the next three days. Afterwards, the Orioles will turn right around and face the 20-win Pittsburgh Pirates while the Rays hit the road to take on the New York Yankees in a four-game set.
Elsewhere on the topic of showdowns between division rivals, the San Diego Padres and Los Angeles Dodgers will clash for the second time in as many weekends. By winning two of three against the Padres this past weekend, the Dodgers have already exacted some revenge from last year's loss in the National League Division Series.
It will otherwise be a week full of downright intriguing matchups, such as the Los Angeles Angels vs. the Houston Astros, the San Diego Padres vs. the Minnesota Twins and Atlanta vs. the Toronto Blue Jays.
As for how this week's schedule will ultimately shake out, well, good question. Allow us to attempt to answer it by presenting our predictions for each team's record between today and Sunday, May 14.
We'll go division by division, starting in the AL East and ending in the National League West.
American League East
1 of 6
Baltimore Orioles
Record (Last 10): 22-12 (6-4)
Schedule: 3 vs. Tampa Bay, 3 vs. Pittsburgh
This isn't exactly an enviable slate of games for the Orioles, but at least they'll have home-field advantage and hotness in their favor. They're 9-4 at Oriole Park at Camden Yards and have won 18 of their last 25 games overall.
Baltimore's pitching hasn't been thriving (i.e., a 4.15 ERA) during this stretch, and the Rays and Pirates have the bats to exploit that. It'll thus be incumbent on Adley Rutschman and Baltimore's top hitters to also show up and at least salvage a split for the week.
Prediction: 3-3
Boston Red Sox
Record (Last 10): 21-15 (8-2)
Schedule: 2 at Atlanta, 3 vs. St. Louis
The Red Sox are 13-7 at Fenway Park and 7-2 against teams with losing records, so they ought to be able to handle the Cardinals. In fact, it'll be an upset if they aren't going for a sweep when they play in primetime on Sunday night.
The Atlanta series doesn't look as favorable to Boston, if for no other reason than they hit a lot of what the Red Sox tend to give up a lot of: home runs.
Prediction: 3-2
New York Yankees
Record (Last 10): 18-17 (4-6)
Schedule: 3 vs. Oakland, 4 vs. Tampa Bay
The Yankees have won 11 out of their last 16 games against the A's dating back to Aug. 31, 2019, and it suffices to say they played some better teams in there than the one Oakland has this year. That series should be a sweep for the home team.
As to the four-gamer against the Rays, having Aaron Judge back in the lineup after his stint on the injured list can only help the Yankees' cause. Ditto for having Gerrit Cole lined up to start the Friday game. And further, ditto for how the Rays are "only" 9-4 on the road.
Prediction: 5-2
Tampa Bay Rays
Record (Last 10): 28-7 (8-2)
Schedule: 3 at Baltimore, 4 at New York
We just tipped our hand regarding how the four-game showdown between the Rays and Yankees at Yankee Stadium is going to go. Can't win 'em all, as they say, even though the Rays have obviously been trying to do so all season.
Otherwise, the Rays should take that series against the Orioles. They'll be the better team on the field no matter which way you slice it, and it'll really be key that Baltimore doesn't have hurlers to match up with Shane McClanahan and Zach Eflin, whose ERAs are in the 2.00s.
Prediction: 4-3
Toronto Blue Jays
Record (Last 10): 21-14 (5-5)
Schedule: 2 at Philadelphia, 3 vs. Atlanta
Following a five-game losing streak with a sweep of a team like the Pirates is a good way to get back on the proverbial track. Even still, the Blue Jays are a modest 12-10 against other winning teams after going 45-49 in that department last season.
That bodes well for Atlanta and the Phillies are a winning team in spirit even if they aren't one in reality. This would be a good time for George Springer to show up and boost Toronto's underachieving offense, but his underlying numbers suggest not to count on it.
Prediction: 2-3
American League Central
2 of 6
Chicago White Sox
Record (Last 10): 12-23 (5-5)
Schedule: 4 at Kansas City, 3 vs. Houston
The White Sox have suddenly won back-to-back series after not winning a single one in all of April. And you know what? Why can't they keep the good vibes going?
No, really. It helps that Dylan Cease and Lucas Giolito are both slated to make two starts this week. It further helps the White Sox that the Royals are even worse than they are and that the Astros have played like a shell of their World Series-winning selves from last season.
Prediction: 5-2
Cleveland Guardians
Record (Last 10): 16-18 (5-5)
Schedule: 3 vs. Detroit, 3 vs. Los Angeles Angels
The Tigers series should be a lay-up for the Guardians, but the two clubs are shockingly similar in their records and scoring outputs. They'll need Tanner Bibee and Shane Bieber to shove in that series, which is fortunately doable.
After that, the Guardians will luckily dodge Shohei Ohtani when they face the Angels. But only his arm. They'll still have to face his bat, as well as those of Mike Trout, Taylor Ward and Brandon Drury as part of what's been a hot offense of late.
Prediction: 2-4
Detroit Tigers
Record (Last 10): 15-18 (6-4)
Schedule: 3 at Cleveland, 3 vs. Seattle
The Tigers just swept a series against the New York Mets in which both Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander started, and then promptly won their series against the St. Louis Cardinals on the road. So, maybe they're finally starting to figure things out?
Eh, that's a step too far. Some humility is in order this week, in which they'll be trotting out Joey Wentz and his 6.67 ERA twice and also face tough arms belonging to Bibee, Bieber, Bryce Miller and Logan Gilbert.
Prediction: 2-4
Kansas City Royals
Record (Last 10): 9-26 (3-7)
Schedule: 4 vs. Chicago White Sox, 3 at Milwaukee
The Royals have lost 23 of the 29 games they've played against winning teams. The Brewers are one of those, so that sure looks like a looming sweep even if Milwaukee has been skidding of late.
The White Sox are, of course, not a winning team. But they will be bringing Cease and Giolito to town, and the Royals can't exactly count on home cooking to bail them out. They're 3-16 at Kauffman Stadium so far.
Prediction: 1-6
Minnesota Twins
Record (Last 10): 19-16 (5-5)
Schedule: 3 vs. San Diego, 3 vs. Chicago Cubs
The Twins are 10-6 at home, so they'll have that going for them as they prepare to face a Padres team that's 9-5 since Fernando Tatis Jr.'s return on April 20. But what they won't have is Sonny Gray going in that series, so some lumps may nonetheless be in order.
Fortunately for the Twins, the Cubs series looks like a face-saving situation. The North Siders have been struggling to put runs on the board, averaging just 3.6 per game in 15 games since April 22. The Twins have the arms to make Chicago's bats even colder.
Prediction: 3-3
American League West
3 of 6
Houston Astros
Record (Last 10): 17-17 (4-6)
Schedule: 3 at Los Angeles Angels, 3 at Chicago White Sox
The Astros just aren't scoring right now, having plated only 36 runs over their last 12 games. And now they're without Luis Garcia, who's done for the year after undergoing Tommy John surgery. Otherwise, things are going just great for the defending champs.
The good news is that it's a two-start week for rookie righty Hunter Brown, who has yet to give up a home run in 55 major league innings. It's otherwise weirdly hard to count on this team right now, so we won't be surprised if it's another rough week.
Prediction: 2-4
Los Angeles Angels
Record (Last 10): 19-16 (6-4)
Schedule: 3 vs. Houston, 3 at Cleveland
As to other reasons not to count on the Astros, they're going to face Ohtani on Tuesday and, as previously covered, an Angels offense that's much hotter than their own right now.
With Sans Ohtani or Patrick Sandoval on the mound, the Angels will need their offense to keep carrying them against the Guardians. The arms they'll be facing won't make that easy, but it's not like they'll have to worry about Cleveland's punchless offense outscoring them.
Prediction: 5-1
Oakland Athletics
Record (Last 10): 8-27 (3-7)
Schedule: 3 at New York Yankees, 4 vs. Texas
The A's have the worst run differential ever for a team through its first 35 games, and they're about to face their New York nemesis and the AL West-leading Rangers.
We'll give them a courtesy win, but only the one.
Prediction: 1-6
Seattle Mariners
Record (Last 10): 17-17 (6-4)
Schedule: 3 vs. Texas, 3 at Detroit
It was around this time last year that Julio Rodríguez really started to get going. As they're just 5-10 against winning teams so far, the Mariners probably won't have a shot at beating the Rangers in this week's series unless that history repeats itself.
As we alluded to earlier, the Tigers series should go better for the Mariners. Put it this way: if Seattle doesn't win the run-scoring battle, it might as well pack it in and wait 'til next year.
Prediction: 3-3
Texas Rangers
Record (Last 10): 20-13 (6-4)
Schedule: 3 at Seattle, 4 at Oakland
We've already tipped our hand regarding the Rangers' series against the A's but another reason to be high on their chances is the looming return of Corey Seager off the injured list.
Having to face Logan Gilbert, George Kirby and Luis Castillo will make the Mariners series more of a challenge for Texas, but the bats should be primed for the challenge. The Rangers have averaged 7.8 runs in 17 games since April 18.
Prediction: 5-2
.png?w=256)
National League East
4 of 6
Atlanta
Record (Last 10): 24-11 (7-3)
Schedule: 2 vs. Boston, 3 at Toronto
Atlanta has been red-hot in winning 18 of its last 26 games, but the club is also weirdly just 5-8 against other winning teams. Is that a cause for concern as they prepare to face two winners in the Red Sox and Blue Jays this week?
We think not, in part because Atlanta is a good match for Boston for reasons mentioned earlier. And in Spencer Strider, Bryce Elder and Charlie Morton, they'll be throwing three very good starters at the Blue Jays over the weekend.
Prediction: 4-1
Miami Marlins
Record (Last 10): 17-18 (5-5)
Schedule: 3 at Arizona, 3 vs. Cincinnati
With their offense ranking dead-last in the majors in scoring at 3.3 runs per game, it's a small miracle that the Marlins' record is as good as it is. That will especially be a disadvantage opposite the Diamondbacks, who average 5.3 runs per game.
The Reds series will present more of a reprieve for the Fish, and especially if Sandy Alcantara keeps putting distance between himself and his nine-run bomb from April 10 when he takes the mound on Saturday.
Prediction: 3-3
New York Mets
Record (Last 10): 17-18 (3-7)
Schedule: 3 at Cincinnati, 3 at Washington
To be facing six games against the Reds and Nationals—the latter of which is a wraparound series with a game next Monday—ought to bode well for the Mets, but this is also a team that's 3-11 in its last 14 games. Not great, Bob.
Still, we'll give the Mets the benefit of the doubt. They've at least handled losing teams to the tune of a 12-11 record. And while Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso, Brandon Nimmo and Starling Marte have all been cool of late, surely that can't last forever.
Prediction: 4-2
Philadelphia Phillies
Record (Last 10): 16-19 (4-6)
Schedule: 2 vs. Toronto, 3 at Colorado
The Phillies have been reeling lately, and now they have to face Alek Manoah and Kevin Gausman to start the week. But if Aaron Nola can give them six solid innings as he has in each of his last four starts, they can at least split against the Blue Jays.
The challenge of the Rockies series will be facing them at Coors Field, where they're a relatively competent 7-9 so far. But if Bryce Harper and the rest of the Phillies offense do what it should do at Coors Field, that should be a series victory nonetheless.
Prediction: 3-2
Washington Nationals
Record (Last 10): 14-20 (5-5)
Schedule: 3 at San Francisco, 3 vs. New York Mets
The best thing the Nationals have going for them right now is Josiah Gray, who's quietly cured his gopheritis as he's pitched to a 2.14 ERA over his last six outings.
Alas, he'll make only one start this week. The Nats will otherwise need their bats to carry them, and the prospects there aren't great given that said bats have only been good for 3.9 runs per game. For all their faults, the Giants and Mets are at least better than that.
Prediction: 2-4
National League Central
5 of 6
Chicago Cubs
Record (Last 10): 17-17 (3-7)
Schedule: 3 vs. St. Louis, 3 at Minnesota
Making two starts this week for the Cubs will be Marcus Stroman, whose 23 starts dating back to July 9, 2022, have yielded a 2.44 ERA. Those two days, at least, should be win days for the North Siders.
As noted earlier, however, the Cubs have been struggling to score runs lately. Unless their offense finds its form against the Cardinals—which, to be fair, is definitely possible—the series against the Twins probably won't go Chicago's way.
Prediction: 3-3
Cincinnati Reds
Record (Last 10): 14-20 (5-5)
Schedule: 3 vs. New York Mets, 3 at Miami
The Reds offense has already been struggling in scoring 3.4 runs per game since April 18, and now it has to face Cy Young Award winners Scherzer, Verlander and Alcantara in the span of a week. It's probably gonna have a bad time.
Still, we'll take a wild guess that the Reds will win the two games Hunter Greene and Graham Ashcraft will start this week. The two righties have a combined 2.84 ERA in 13 outings this year.
Prediction: 2-4
Milwaukee Brewers
Record (Last 10): 19-15 (4-6)
Schedule: 3 vs. Los Angeles Dodgers, 3 vs. Kansas City
Freddy Peralta has been nasty his last two times out, striking out 18 of the 50 batters he's faced with only three walks allowed. We bring it up because he starts twice this week, beginning with Monday's assignment opposite the Dodgers.
What the Brewers otherwise need is for their offense to get going again, for which the series against the Royals could prove helpful. Only the A's and White Sox have allowed more runs than they have this season.
Prediction: 4-2
Pittsburgh Pirates
Record (Last 10): 20-15 (3-7)
Schedule: 3 vs. Colorado, 3 at Baltimore
The shine has come off the Pirates as they've lost seven games in a row. Yet they ought to be able to right the proverbial ship against the Rockies, especially knowing that the Bucs are 9-7 at home and the Rox are 7-12 on the road.
The series against the Orioles will be more of a challenge, especially if the Bucs offense goes back into neutral. It was hot to start the year but has gone cold lately in producing just nine runs in the club's last seven games.
Prediction: 3-3
St. Louis Cardinals
Record (Last 10): 11-24 (2-8)
Schedule: 3 at Chicago Cubs, 3 at Boston
Adam Wainwright's return came not a moment too soon, but he's only going to make one start this week that will come in Boston on Friday. Jordan Montgomery, the only Cardinals starter with an ERA below 5.00, will also make just one start.
So unless Nolan Arenado is going to fully bust out of the slump that's been consuming him for the last few weeks, it's hard to count on the Cardinals improving on their dismal 7-18 record against winning teams.
Prediction: 1-5
National League West
6 of 6
Arizona Diamondbacks
Record (Last 10): 19-15 (6-4)
Schedule: 3 vs. Miami, 4 vs. San Francisco
Zac Gallen will have two chances this week to start a new scoreless streak after his last one ended on Tuesday against the Rangers. And to this end, he couldn't have asked for a better springboard than facing a Marlins team that's last in the majors in scoring.
The Giants figure to put up more of a fight, especially with their three best pitchers going in that four-game set in the desert. But if the Snakes can win Gallen's start and also be the latest team to handle Ross Stripling, they can at least salvage a split.
Prediction: 4-3
Colorado Rockies
Record (Last 10): 14-21 (6-4)
Schedule: 3 at Pittsburgh, 3 vs. Philadelphia
The Rockies have hit a warm stretch in winning six out of their last seven games. And in the person of Kyle Freeland, they'll have their best healthy pitcher going twice this week.
This said, going on the road to face the Pirates in Pittsburgh is a challenging situation and the Phillies will be bringing a high-powered offense with them when they come to Denver. It could be a long week for the Rockies.
Prediction: 2-4
Los Angeles Dodgers
Record (Last 10): 21-14 (8-2)
Schedule: 3 at Milwaukee, 3 vs. San Diego
Early rumors of the Dodgers' demise were apparently greatly exaggerated. They're heading into this week's slate having averaged 6.1 runs per game amid an 11-3 stretch. A series victory against the Brewers is their next logical step.
The Padres look like more of an immovable object, but the Dodgers have already proved themselves capable of handling them. And since they're 12-6 at Dodger Stadium, it's another key that the series will take place in the Dodgers' neck of the woods.
Prediction: 4-2
San Diego Padres
Record (Last 10): 18-17 (6-4)
Schedule: 3 at Minnesota, 3 at Los Angeles Dodgers
Welp, this is another situation where our hand is pretty well tipped. We clearly have the Padres winning two of three in Minnesota before dropping their three-game set against the Dodgers.
We'll be more confident in the Padres whenever Manny Machado gets going. For all the handwringing over Juan Soto's slow start, it's really Machado who's held San Diego's offense back in hitting just .252 with four home runs out of the gate.
Prediction: 3-3
San Francisco Giants
Record (Last 10): 15-18 (5-5)
Schedule: 3 vs. Washington, 4 at Arizona
This is a two-start week for Logan Webb, who was shaky at the outset but is now riding a string of three straight outings in which he's pitched at least 6.2 innings and given up no more than two runs. His assignments should equal two wins for the Giants.
The Giants are otherwise in a tight spot right now offensively, as Mike Yastrzemski is on the injured list and Michael Conforto has gone cold. That won't help them against the Diamondbacks, who have the third-highest average in the majors in home games.
Prediction: 4-3
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
.png?w=480)
