The Most Overrated NFL Teams Heading into the 2023 Season
The 2023 NFL offseason has been a whirlwind. We've seen standout players like Jalen Ramsey, Brandin Cooks and Stephon Gilmore change teams via the trade market, stars like Javon Hargrave and JuJu Smith-Schuster move in free agency and a draft that featured a record number of trades.
In short, the bulk of the offseason has not disappointed. However, while it feels like every team should be optimistic coming out of the draft, some will inevitably disappoint in 2023.
Perennial contenders can fall off due to age, injuries or lost talent. Teams perceived to be on the rise can falter, especially when prized offseason additions don't pay off.
Realistic expectations can be difficult to find, but the fine folks over at DraftKings Sportsbook have simplified the process with win lines and Super Bowl odds for every team. Using those as a guideline, let's examine six squads that are being overrated this offseason.
You'll find a look at the reasons why they're likely to disappoint, with teams listed in alphabetical order.
Buffalo Bills
1 of 6
Win Line: 10.5
Super Bowl Odds: 9-1
The Buffalo Bills aren't going to be a bad football team in 2023. They've won at least 10 games in each of the past four seasons, and they still have dynamic dual-threat Josh Allen at quarterback.
However, it's hard to think that they will be dramatically better than they were a year ago. Two of their biggest needs remain unfulfilled through early free agency and the draft. Buffalo still lacks a reliable third receiver behind Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, and it did little to upgrade a pass rush that sank when Von Miller suffered a season-ending ACL tear.
Despite playing behind a banged-up offensive line, Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow was sacked only once during last year's divisional-round blowout win against Buffalo. Why, again, do the Bills have better Super Bowl odds than Cincinnati (11-1)? They shouldn't.
And while Buffalo's win line of 10.5 games isn't outlandish, it's important to remember how competitive the AFC East will be this season. The New England Patriots, New York Jets and Miami Dolphins all won at least seven games last season, while Miami made the playoffs. And the Jets just added four-time NFL MVP quarterback Aaron Rodgers.
Buffalo may get to 11 wins and claim a fourth straight AFC East title, but there will be attrition along the way. And until the Bills prove they can get past Cincinnati and the Kansas City Chiefs in the postseason, they shouldn't have the fourth-best odds to win it all.
Dallas Cowboys
2 of 6
Win Line: 9.5
Super Bowl Odds: 14-1
Fans seem to either love or hate the Dallas Cowboys with little room for ambivalence. We hate Dallas, as a legitimate Super Bowl contender, that is.
Look, the Cowboys have plenty going for them. They return the bulk of a defense that ranked fifth in points allowed last season, they have an above-average quarterback in Dak Prescott, and they made a few savvy moves during the offseason.
Trading for veterans Brandin Cooks and Stephon Gilmore was smart, even if they're only coming in to replace Noah Brown and Anthony Brown, respectively.
However, the Cowboys lost offensive coordinator Kellen Moore to the Los Angeles Chargers in the offseason, so continuity could be a big problem. Dallas' draft, meanwhile, was promising but might not yield immediate contributors.
First-round pick Mazi Smith has potential to spare but underwhelmed at Michigan and still needs time to develop. The same is true for second-round tight end Luke Schoonmaker.
"Luke Schoonmaker is more an idea than a ready-made player, but he has all the tools to grow into a difference-maker," Derrik Klassen of the B/R Scouting Department wrote.
Schoonmaker won't directly replace Dalton Schultz, who signed with the Houston Texans in free agency, and 5'5 ¼", 179-pound running back Deuce Vaughn won't outright replace Ezekiel Elliott either. That's two big offensive question marks, and starting tailback Tony Pollard is recovering from ankle surgery.
Can the Cowboys win with defense this season? Possibly. They might even get to 10 wins, but they are in the loaded NFC East and have a brutal schedule that also includes the NFC West and AFC East. They probably won't win the division and should face much longer odds to lift the Lombardi Trophy.
Los Angeles Rams
3 of 6
Win Line: 7.5
Super Bowl Odds: 65-1
Not every overrated team is expected to be great, and the Los Angeles Rams fall into this category.
Fans who want to blame the injuries of Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp and Aaron Donald—plus the offseason departures of Odell Beckham Jr. and Von Miller—on the Rams' 2022 struggles are free to do so.
However, there was a lot more to L.A.'s disappointing 5-12 record than just injuries, and there are few reasons to believe the Rams will be markedly better this year.
It starts with Stafford, who is 35 years old and wasn't playing well before he was lost for the season to a concussion and neck injury. He lacked targets besides Kupp—he still does—and he posted a lackluster 87.4 passer rating.
Expecting an instant return to Pro Bowl form from Stafford would be silly. On top of that, Los Angeles underwent a massive talent purge this offseason, losing the likes of Ramsey, Leonard Floyd, Bobby Wagner, David Long, Greg Gaines, Riley Dixon and Allen Robinson II.
While the Rams picked up a couple of nice pieces in the draft, including guard Steve Avila and developmental quarterback Stetson Bennett, they don't have a particularly talented roster.
Even if the Rams are gifted two easy wins against the lowly Arizona Cardinals, getting to eight victories in the NFC West is a long shot. Both the San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks were playoff teams in 2022, and L.A. will also face the AFC North and NFC East—divisions that sent a combined five teams to the postseason last year.
The Rams feel more likely to be chasing projected 2024 No. 1 pick Caleb Williams than a .500 record this season.
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New Orleans Saints
4 of 6
Win Line: 9.5
Super Bowl Odds: 35-1
The New Orleans Saints should be better with Pro Bowl quarterback Derek Carr replacing Andy Dalton in 2023. How much better is the big unknown.
Carr made the Pro Bowl as an alternate last season, and he was a steady presence for the Las Vegas Raiders. But will New Orleans be three wins better than its 2022 Dalton-led incarnation? We're not so sure.
Dalton made his fair share of mistakes last season but finished with a respectable 95.2 passer rating. Carr threw six more touchdowns than Dalton (in one more game) but posted an 86.3 rating and tossed five more interceptions.
Now, Carr will be working with a new roster, and while he's familiar with head coach Dennis Allen, the two were last together when Carr was a rookie in 2014.
New Orleans still doesn't know what to expect from wideout Michael Thomas, who last played a full season in 2019. Star running back Alvin Kamara could receive a suspension from the league under its personal conduct policy after allegedly participating in beating up a man in Las Vegas during Pro Bowl Weekend and being indicted on charges of conspiracy to commit battery and battery resulting in substantial bodily harm.
The Saints are heavy +110 favorites (bet $100 to win $110) to win their division, but that feels dismissive of the rest of the NFC South.
The Carolina Panthers added a ton of talent in the offseason and have a new quarterback in 2023 top overall pick Bryce Young. The Atlanta Falcons have surrounded Desmond Ridder with one of the most talented supporting casts in the league—one that includes Drake London, Kyle Pitts, Mack Hollins, Tyler Allgeier, Cordarrelle Patterson and rookie first-round pick Bijan Robinson.
The Saints do have the league's second-easiest schedule in terms of 2022 winning percentage (.427), but double-digit wins should be viewed as a surprise, not the expectation.
New York Jets
5 of 6
Win Line: 9.5
Super Bowl Odds: 14-1
The New York Jets will be better in 2023 than they were a year ago. Replacing in-over-his-head quarterback Zach Wilson with Aaron Rodgers should ensure that. However, giving the Jets the sixth-best odds to win the Super Bowl feels premature.
For one, we don't know what version of Rodgers to expect. He was just sort of OK with the Green Bay Packers last year, finishing with a 91.1 passer rating. You can blame some of that on him working with inexperienced receivers like Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson, but Rodgers' physical tools seem to be on the decline.
"The biggest piece is he just can't move as well as he used to," one team's scout told Bill Huber of FanNation.
Rodgers will have a better supporting cast in New York, and he will have a familiar voice in offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett. However, it's a new roster for Rodgers, who still only seems partially committed to the offseason.
Rodgers told the Pat McAfee Show this week that he'll be at "more than half" of the Jets' offseason workouts (h/t Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk).
If everything goes well, he can still be a top-10 quarterback, but even that might not be enough to lift New York to 10 wins and a deep playoff run.
Like the Bills, the Jets play in the talented AFC East. They also face the league's sixth-toughest schedule in terms of 2022 winning percentage (.545). With some growing pains inevitable, New York is probably a year away from making a serious run with Rodgers—assuming the 39-year-old sticks around for another go.
Tennessee Titans
6 of 6
Win Line: 7.5
Super Bowl Odds: 80-1
The Tennessee Titans are (rightfully) among the longest shots to win the Super Bowl. Still, with expectations of seven-to-eight wins, they're being overrated.
Virtually any success will hinge on the health and efficacy of running back Derrick Henry. The Titans just don't have a lot else going for them. They won seven games in 2022 but parted with players like Nate Davis, David Long Jr., Bud Dupree, Ben Jones, Taylor Lewan, Robert Woods and Randy Bullock this offseason.
While they added a couple of fine defensive pieces in free agency—like Arden Key and Azeez Al-Shaair—they did nothing to improve their defense during the draft. All six of their selections were offensive.
Considering Tennessee ranked dead last in pass defense and 23rd in total defense last season, that's an issue.
The Titans do benefit from playing in a recently bad division, but that could be changing.
The Indianapolis Colts should be better with a healthy Jonathan Taylor at running back and dual-threat rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson likely taking the field at some point. The Houston Texans will improve after spending big in free agency and landing both quarterback C.J. Stroud and edge-rusher Will Anderson Jr. with the second and third picks, respectively.
The Jacksonville Jaguars are the reigning division champs and have given no reason to believe a decline is inevitable.
If the Titans get off to a slow start, this season could quickly become an exercise in passing the QB torch from Ryan Tannehill to rookie second-round pick Will Levis. And if Levis doesn't play well, Tennessee could start tanking for a top quarterback like USC's Caleb Williams or North Carolina's Drake Maye in 2024.
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