Buying or Selling Dodgers' Biggest Breakout Players in 2023 Season
The Los Angeles Dodgers saw more roster turnover during the offseason than they have in recent years. That paved the way for a youth movement of sorts, with multiple rookies earning a spot on the Opening Day roster.
Miguel Vargas was the team's top candidate for NL Rookie of the Year honors when the season began, but James Outman has made the biggest splash among newcomers to the starting lineup. Meanwhile, former All-Star Shelby Miller is enjoying a career renaissance in a bullpen role.
But are they for real?
Ahead, we have given our take on whether to buy or sell those early performances based on track records and advanced metrics.
RP Shelby Miller
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Shelby Miller was once one of baseball's most promising young starters. He finished third in NL Rookie of the Year voting in 2013, earned an All-Star selection in 2015 and joined the Arizona Diamondbacks in a blockbuster trade the following offseason that sent Dansby Swanson the other way.
However, injuries severely derailed his career following the 2015 season. Over the past six years, he has struggled to a 7.02 ERA in 202.2 innings with the Diamondbacks, Texas Rangers, Chicago Cubs, Pittsburgh Pirates and San Francisco Giants.
The Dodgers signed him to a one-year, $1.5 million deal during the offseason, hoping he still had something left in the tank entering his age-32 season. The early returns have been promising.
In 12 appearances, he has a 1.32 ERA and 0.95 WHIP, and he even recorded his first career save on April 25. However, there are some red flags, including nine walks in 13.2 innings, a 3.73 FIP and an unsustainable .121 opponents' BABIP. The question isn't if he'll regress, but how far.
Verdict: Sell
CF James Outman
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James Outman began the year as the No. 10 prospect in the Dodgers organization, but he was unranked on the Baseball America Top 100 prospect list and was widely viewed as a second-tier prospect in a stacked Los Angeles farm system.
That isn't to say he hasn't shown potential, including a stellar season in the upper minors last year where he hit .294/.393/.586 with 31 doubles, 31 home runs and 106 RBI. However, those numbers were accompanied by 152 strikeouts in 125 games.
At 25 years old, Outman was on the upper end of the prospect scale and was running out of time to break through and prove he can be an impact big leaguer. He exceeded even the most optimistic of expectations during the first month of the 2023 season, hitting .282/.378/.583 for a 154 OPS+ with 14 extra-base hits, 21 RBI and 1.3 WAR in 31 games.
It's clear Outman has the tools to be an MLB player, but 41 strikeouts in 119 plate appearances still raises some questions about the sustainability of his early success. I'm buying him being a quality big leaguer, but there's likely significant regression coming.
Verdict: Buy
2B Miguel Vargas
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Ignoring his lackluster .236 batting average for a moment, Miguel Vargas has posted a .367 on-base percentage, 103 OPS+ and 0.3 WAR in 29 games while taking over as the Dodgers' primary second baseman.
At 23 years old, his 16.4 percent walk rate speaks to a discipline beyond his years. That will go a long way in offsetting any early struggles at the plate while he continues to settle in at the MLB level.
Vargas hit .304/.404/.511 with 32 doubles, 17 home runs and 82 RBI in 113 games at Triple-A last season. He has the potential to be a staple in the infield and in the middle of the batting order for years to come in Los Angeles.
After dealing with a pinkie finger injury for much of spring training, he was hit in the thumb with a pitch in early April. The fact that he has managed to produce a 103 OPS+ despite dealing with those injuries makes it easy to be optimistic about his future outlook.
Verdict: Buy
All stats courtesy of Baseball Reference and accurate through Tuesday's games.
