Early Bold Predictions for the 2023 NFL Trade Deadline

With the 2023 NFL draft now over and most of the impact free agents off the market, teams have done a majority of their offseason work. A handful of notable players still could be cut or traded in the coming weeks and months, but blockbuster deals figure to be few and far between.

Once the season gets underway, though, teams will quickly find out whether their offseason makeovers paid off. That should lead to a steady stream of trade chatter.

The 2023 NFL trade deadline is still a half-year away, but it's never too early to start thinking about the league-altering changes that could occur leading up to it.

Last year's trade deadline was arguably the most frenzied in NFL history, with 13 players getting moved across 11 deals made on deadline day itself. That could set a precedent for a similar volume of transactions in 2023.

With that in mind, here are some bold early predictions for this year's trade deadline.

Buccaneers Get a Head Start on 2024 Rebuild

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Buccaneers GM Jason Licht

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are in a difficult position following the retirement of Tom Brady.

Despite going only 8-9, the Bucs made the playoffs last season, which put them out of the running for a top draft pick. That left them without a long-term answer under center in the wake of Brady's reitrement.

The Bucs spent a second-round pick on Kyle Trask in 2021, but he has only nine career pass attempts. They also signed 2018 No. 1 overall pick Baker Mayfield to give Trask some competition, but he went 2-8 as a starter last year with the Carolina Panthers and Los Angeles Rams.

The Bucs did draft some potential contributors in the trenches like defensive tackle Calijah Kancey and offensive lineman Cody Mauch, but they're likely to struggle with either Mayfield or Trask under center.

With talented veterans like wideouts Mike Evans and Chris Godwin still around from the 2020 Super Bowl-winning team, it may finally be time for the Buccaneers to convert those players into draft assets and embrace a full rebuild. They should have gone that route as soon as Brady retired with no heir apparent on the roster, but doing so at the trade deadline will at least allow them to get a head start on the 2024 offseason.

Picking up a handful of additional early- and middle-round picks for win-now veterans would put the Bucs in much better position to contend in the coming years. While that won't help them compete late in 2023, they're likely to be well out of contention before the trade deadline even rolls around.

Commanders Try to Land a Top Pick

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Commanders GM Martin Mayhew

The Washington Commanders have been stuck in no-man's land for the last half-decade. They've fared well enough to consistently contend for a playoff berth in that span, but they weren't strong enough to emerge as a viable Super Bowl threat.

As a result, the team hasn't had a top draft pick it could use on a franchise quarterback.

Since the departure of Kirk Cousins following the 2017 season, Washington has cycled through a revolving door of past-their-prime veterans and inexperienced young passers who haven't panned out. After striking out with Taylor Heinicke and Carson Wentz last year, the team will go into 2023 with second-year quarterback Sam Howell competing with journeyman Jacoby Brissett for the starting job.

Neither of these signal-callers is likely to elevate the Commanders beyond a .500 record at best. Given the team's defensive prowess and skill-position talent, it will likely avoid bottoming out yet again and end up with a mid-round selection in Round 1 of the 2024 draft.

Rather than accept that fate and miss out on yet another potential franchise signal-caller, the Commanders could use the trade deadline to start making some moves that may land them a pick at or near the top of the next draft. Whether they accomplish that by clearing their expensive defensive line logjam—Montez Sweat and Chase Young are both reasonable trade candidates who could return Day 1 value—or some other method, the Commanders should start stockpiling assets to pull off a similar trade-up to the one the Carolina Panthers did to grab Bryce Young this year.

Cardinals Consider Kyler Murray Trade

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Cardinals QB Kyler Murray

The Arizona Cardinals seemingly committed to quarterback Kyler Murray for the long haul by signing him to a blockbuster extension last year. However, there's a chance that the organization could move on from him as early as the 2023 trade deadline.

Murray got off to a red-hot start to his NFL career, earning Offensive Rookie of the Year honors in 2019 before making back-to-back Pro Bowls in 2020-21. While the future seemed bright, much has changed since midway through the 2021 campaign.

After returning from a three-game absence because of an ankle injury, Murray won only two of his final seven starts that season. This included an embarrassing 34-11 defeat to the rival Los Angeles Rams in his lone playoff appearance. The poor play continued last season, a year in which Murray went 3-8 across his 11 starts before he suffered a torn ACL.

With Murray not expected to return until midway through the 2023 season, the Cardinals could mull going a different direction at the deadline. The key organizational figures who drafted the Oklahoma product are no longer in place—both general manager Steve Keim and head coach Kliff Kingsbury exited after an ugly 2022 campaign—and the new regime may be willing to part with Murray for the right price.

It's worth noting that trading Murray carries some exorbitant dead-cap charges, but it may be worth it for Arizona to bite the bullet if the front office receives a strong enough offer or believes the quarterback won't remain an elite talent after he returns from his knee injury.

The club should have an opportunity—either by using its own first-rounder or the first-rounder it acquired from the Houston Texans last week—to draft a top quarterback prospect as Murray's replacement.

Whether the Cardinals go through with a franchise-altering decision like that would depend on the offers they receive and how they fare until Murray returns. But it wouldn't be a shock to hear that the front office is taking calls on him ahead of the trade deadline.

Rams Bulldoze Down the House

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Rams GM Les Snead

After setting the record for most losses by a reigning champion in 2022, the Los Angeles Rams opened the offseason by parting ways with several of their top talents. They traded star cornerback Jalen Ramsey to the Miami Dolphins and letting linebacker Leonard Floyd walk in free agency.

While several key pieces from the Rams' championship run still remain for now, those players could soon be on their way out as well.

General manager Les Snead told reporters in March that veteran quarterback Matthew Stafford, wide receiver Cooper Kupp and defensive tackle Aaron Donald are "weight-bearing walls" who will remain through the team's "remodeling" efforts. However, the organization may find it more attractive to ship these pricy players off for draft assets if it continues to struggle this coming season.

According to Pro Football Talk's Mike Florio, Los Angeles would have "welcomed" a deal for Stafford after the quarterback played only nine games last season and regressed significantly from his 2021 form. While a trade didn't materialize—likely due to the veteran passer's enormous contract in addition to his poor play and health—that could change if he shows some improvement this season and a contending team loses a starter to an injury.

Donald and Kupp likely would have even more value in terms of the draft capital that the Rams could receive for them in a trade. Shipping them off could be enticing if the team is floundering near the bottom of the standings by the time the trade deadline draws near.

Texans Add Veterans for Playoff Push

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Texans GM Nick Caserio

The Houston Texans executed one of the most surprising moves of the 2023 draft, trading up to No. 3 overall to land elite edge-rusher Will Anderson Jr. right after they selected potential franchise quarterback C.J. Stroud at No. 2. Those two picks could help Houston pull off one of the most drastic turnarounds in the league this season.

Stroud alone gives the Texans hope of contending for the first time since Deshaun Watson was under center for them. After floundering through three seasons without a viable signal-caller—resulting in only 11 total wins during that span—there is finally reason to believe Houston will be able to put a competitive product on the field in 2023.

With Anderson providing a massive boost to a defense that ranked 30th in points allowed and 31st in yards allowed last year, the Texans could become buyers instead of sellers at the trade deadline. They have several foundational pieces in place, but they need more talent to make a real run for an AFC South crown and postseason berth.

Houston could find those missing pieces at the deadline when teams off to poor starts will be looking to offload veterans in exchange for draft capital.

The Texans are sitting on as many as nine picks in the 2024 draft before conditional picks even come into consideration. They could flip some of those picks for proven players at the deadline to help end their rebuild and push them back into relevance.