2023 NFL Rookie Awards Predictions from Bleacher Report Staff
This past week, in Kansas City, Missouri, the NFL welcomed the 2023 draft class, and each team has high hopes for its incoming rookies.
While we'll see several players flash in their first pro season, others will absolutely flourish with their teams.
Our NFL experts—Gary Davenport, Brad Gagnon, Kris Knox, Maurice Moton and Brent Sobleski—made their picks for rookie statistical leaders and award winners.
They considered projected roles, schematic fit and players' supporting casts to predict who will shine brightest among 2023 draftees. The panel also took a look at who might flop in a rough career start.
We'll begin with the projected statistical leaders and then hand out awards.
Most Passing Yards
1 of 11
C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans (3 votes)
Our panel narrowed this category down to a two-quarterback battle between C.J. Stroud and Bryce Young. Both signal-callers should start sooner than later, though Young has a more experienced veteran ahead of him on the depth chart.
With that said, if Carolina trots out Andy Dalton for Week 1, he's probably one outing away from ceding the offense to the No. 1 overall pick in the draft.
Our crew went with Stroud by one vote, but Gagnon took Young because of his supporting cast, and he's not ready count out Houston Texans quarterback Davis Mills retaining the starting job while Stroud gets up to speed on the pro game.
"I think this is somewhat of a toss-up between Stroud and Young because Anthony Richardson faces a lot more questions in terms of his readiness," Gagnon said.
"I'm leaning toward Young because, even without DJ Moore, I prefer Carolina's supporting cast with DJ Chark, Adam Thielen and more receiving depth in general. And because it seems like a little more of a guarantee he'll start right away, whereas Houston could still ease Stroud in with Davis Mills in place."
Others Receiving Votes: Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers (2 votes)
Most Rushing Yards
2 of 11
Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons (5 votes)
In 2022, a few running backs competed for the rushing title among rookies until Kenneth Walker III literally ran away with the lead in the final few weeks of the campaign. He rushed for 107-plus yards in each of his last three regular-season outings, finishing with 1,050 yards and nine touchdowns on the ground.
For this incoming class, though, our voters came to a consensus on Bijan Robinson.
Davenport took note of the league's No. 1 offense in rush attempts for the 2022 season and drew a relatively simple conclusion.
"This one's an easy call. Robinson is the first running back drafted in the top 10 since Saquon Barkley in 2018. He's the top prospect at his position by a massive margin. And he's joining a Falcons team that was one of the most run-heavy clubs in the NFL last year. It would be a massive upset if Robinson doesn't lead all rookies in rushing yards."
Though Robinson will split touches with Tyler Allgeier, who ran for 1,035 yards and three touchdowns last year, he's likely to handle the lion's share of the touches. The Falcons selected him with the eighth overall pick. They'll feed the 5'11", 215-pound tailback on all three downs.
Most Receiving Yards
3 of 11
Jordan Addison, Minnesota Vikings (3 votes)
The 2023 class doesn't feature a clear-cut top wideout, which adds to the difficulty of this projection. With that said, one of the top pass-catching tight ends—Dalton Kincaid, Sam LaPorta or Michael Mayer—could challenge for the No. 1 spot in receiving yards among the rookies.
Our crew didn't go out on a limb and pick a tight end, though three voters chose Jordan Addison, the fourth wide receiver off the board in the first round.
Knox explained why he gave the nod to the 2021 Fred Biletnikoff Award winner.
"Addison landed in the perfect spot to light up the stat sheet as a rookie. With Adam Thielen in Carolina, the USC product steps into the No. 2 role opposite one of the league's biggest attention-getters in Justin Jefferson. He'll see a ton of one-on-one coverage early in an offense that ranked third in pass attempts last season.
"Furthermore, Minnesota's defense still looks like a lower-tier unit, so I'd expect Addison to also benefit from frequent offensive track meets."
Others Receiving Votes: Quentin Johnston, Los Angeles Chargers (1 vote), Tank Dell, Houston Texans (1 vote)
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Most Tackles
4 of 11
Jack Campbell, Detroit Lions (5 votes)
Typically, linebackers and safeties tally the most tackles for a defense. Many of them don't make highlight reels with sacks and interceptions, but they're expected to swarm the football on every down and make stops all over the field.
Our experts unanimously voted for the lone first-round linebacker in this class, Jack Campbell, as the rookie leader in tackles. The Detroit Lions will likely plug him into the starting middle linebacker spot with Alex Anzalone on the weak side.
Assuming Campbell takes the field in a big role for Week 1, Moton feels he has a chance to lead both the Lions and all rookies in tackles.
"Campbell will become the centerpiece of Detroit's defense, which needed a thumper-type linebacker. He's a stout 6'5", 249-pounder who instinctively fills gaps on run downs. While Campbell shows some patience rather than a quick burst through holes to get into the opponent's backfield, he's a sure tackler, which is obviously the most important aspect of this projection.
"Some of the top rookie defenders will miss several tackles. Once Campbell finds his target, he's going to wrap up the ball-carrier or receiver with textbook technique. As an efficient second-level defender, he'll rack up 100-plus tackles to lead the 2023 class."
Most Sacks
5 of 11
Will Anderson Jr., Houston Texans (3 votes)
Through the evaluation process, most analysts regarded Will Anderson Jr. as the best defensive prospect in the class, though Tyree Wilson crept into the discussion a week before the draft.
"I will not be surprised if, in the Edge category, Tyree Wilson is picked ahead of Will Anderson," NBC Sports' Peter King wrote.
Interestingly, Anderson has competition for our pick to win the sacks category, with Wilson in a close second. Sobleski split the tie.
"This became a relatively easy selection based on two factors," Sobleski said.
"First, Will Anderson Jr. was the No. 1 overall prospect on the Bleacher Report Scouting Department's draft board. Second, Anderson's production over the last two seasons was staggering. During that span, the two-time SEC Defensive Player of the Year registered 50.5 tackles for loss and 27.5 sacks.
"He has the power to play through blockers and quickness to beat them off the edge. Plus, he enters one of the best defensive schemes in the NFL under DeMeco Ryans to be the Houston Texans' version of Nick Bosa."
Others Receiving Votes: Tyree Wilson, Las Vegas Raiders (2 votes)
Most Interceptions
6 of 11
Christian Gonzalez, New England Patriots (1 vote), Emmanuel Forbes, Washington Commanders (1 vote), Joey Porter Jr., Pittsburgh Steelers (1 vote), Julius Brents, Indianapolis Colts (1 vote), Clark Phillips III, Atlanta Falcons (1 vote)
Seattle Seahawks cornerback Tariq Woolen led last year's rookie class with six interceptions. Houston Texans safety Jalen Pitre and Dallas Cowboys slot cornerback DaRon Bland tied for second with five.
Woolen and Bland came into the NFL as fifth-rounders. This is a wide-open category, which is reflected in our votes. Each expert picked a different cornerback.
Moton went with Indianapolis Colts cornerback Julius Brents, who went sixth among cornerbacks this year.
"Brents has all the traits that can help him become a ball hawk on the pro level after he recorded four interceptions in his final collegiate term at Kansas State," Moton said.
"At 6'3", 198 pounds, Brents has long 34-inch arms, swift feet and covers the field with anticipation to break on the ball in zone coverage. In defensive coordinator Gus Bradley's Cover 3 scheme, Brents will play in a system that allows him to read the quarterback and play with the action in front of him.
"In addition to a perfect fit in Bradley's system, Brents has a clear opportunity to take on a starting role because of Stephon Gilmore's departure via trade to the Dallas Cowboys. He's in a position to showcase his skill set as a starter in Week 1."
Gagnon went with conventional thought and voted for Emmanuel Forbes, who's arguably the top ball hawk in the 2023 class.
"I know this pick took a lot of heat, but that doesn't change the fact that there's space for the polished Forbes to play an immediate role in the Washington secondary. And don't overlook his ability to make plays on the ball. Dude intercepted 14 passes the last three years in the best conference in college football."
Biggest Flop
7 of 11
Mazi Smith, Dallas Cowboys (4 votes)
Every year, you'll come across at least one head-scratcher in the first round of the draft. Perhaps the team tried to outsmart the league, or the front office knows something that's not widely known by the media, which happens all the time.
Nonetheless, our panel almost came to a unanimous decision on the biggest flop. Mazi Smith didn't move the needle for our voters. While the Dallas Cowboys needed to add some power up front to improve a run defense that ranked 22nd in yards allowed last year, Smith's collegiate production (88 tackles, six for loss and a half-sack) doesn't warrant first-round consideration.
Moton broke away from the consensus because he believes Will McDonald IV will play a minimal role in the upcoming season.
"Eventually, McDonald could add a spark to the New York Jets pass rush in head coach Robert Saleh's wide-9 alignment, but he joins a crowded defensive line group that includes 2022 first-rounder Jermaine Johnson, Carl Lawson, Micheal Clemons and Bryce Huff.
"Gang Green made a luxury pick with the 15th overall selection. Now that the Jets have 39-year-old quarterback Aaron Rodgers in the fold, they need to use their premium resources on guys who can contribute this year while in win-now mode. McDonald is a backup without a pathway to a meaningful role."
Others Receiving Votes: Will McDonald IV, Edge, New York Jets (1 vote)
Surprise Star
8 of 11
Chase Brown, Cincinnati Bengals (1 vote), Clark Phillips III, Atlanta Falcons (1 vote), Dontayvion Wicks, Green Bay Packers (1 vote), A.T. Perry, New Orleans Saints (1 vote), Devon Achane, Miami Dolphins (1 vote)
None of our panelists projected that a late-round quarterback would flash as Brock Purdy did for the San Francisco 49ers last season, though they dug deep to find Day 3 gems.
Moton thinks A.T. Perry should've gone earlier in the draft but landed in the perfect spot to rack up big numbers for a revamped New Orleans Saints' passing attack.
"The Saints solved their quarterback question in free agency, signing Derek Carr after the Las Vegas Raiders released him. Since then, they've done a good job of retaining or adding playmakers around him. New Orleans restructured wide receiver Michael Thomas' contract, re-signed tight end Juwan Johnson and signed Bryan Edwards, who played with Carr in Las Vegas.
"The Saints found a sixth-round steal in A.T. Perry, though. Our scout, Derrik Klassen, gave a third-round grade to the Wake Forest standout as the seventh-best wideout in the 2023 class. Somehow, Perry slipped to the back end of Day 3 after hauling in 152 passes for 2,389 yards and 26 touchdowns over the past two years.
"At 6'3", 198 pounds with 4.47-second 40-yard speed, Perry could become a viable target, especially if Thomas continues to battle injuries. The latter has suited up for just 10 games since 2020. Even if the veteran receiver avoids the injury bug, the Saints can feature Perry on the boundary when Thomas or Chris Olave line up in the slot."
Offensive Rookie of the Year
9 of 11
Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons (3 votes)
Leading up to the draft, Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud garnered praise for their readiness to play right away, while Anthony Richardson was labeled as a project who must tweak his footwork, ball placement and throwing velocity.
While we gave the nod to running back Bijan Robinson, Sobleski fired back at Richardson's doubters and made a compelling case in favor of the athletic signal-caller.
"But Anthony Richardson is supposed to be a project. Right?" Sobleski quipped. "The Indianapolis Colts don't sound like a team prepared to sit and develop this year's fourth overall pick. Instead, reps are the elixir to help an inexperienced quarterback with only 13 career starts.
"Richardson will surely experience his fair share of growing pains throughout the process. Yet he has the tools to provide spectacular plays that will resonate with voters and fans. The Colts' new signal-caller may not throw as many touchdowns or for the same amount of yardage as Bryce Young or C.J. Stroud. What he also does in the run game will have a massive impact on contests."
Others Receiving Votes: C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans (1 vote), Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts (1 vote)
Defensive Rookie of the Year
10 of 11
Will Anderson Jr., Houston Texans (3 votes)
In the previous three campaigns, we've seen a variety of defenders win Defensive Rookie of the Year. In consecutive order, edge-rusher Chase Young, hybrid linebacker-pass-rusher Micah Parsons and cornerback Sauce Gardner have earned the honor.
While the draft's top edge-rusher, Will Anderson Jr., was the most popular pick, Knox went against the trend of high-level pass-rushers and top cornerbacks altogether. Instead, he chose a natural off-ball linebacker who may have minimal pass-rushing production but has the ability to stuff the stat sheet in different ways.
"This is usually an award reserved for rookie sacks or interceptions leaders, but there have been outliers, like Shaquille Leonard in 2018. Leonard led the league with an astounding 163 tackles that season, and I think Campbell can have a similar rookie campaign. He'll play a lot of clean-up behind a Lions defensive front that is improving but still not great. Remember, he had triple-digit tackles in each of his last two seasons at Iowa.
"Sprinkle in a few sacks and picks, and Campbell will have the sort of all-around campaign that outshines his pass-rushing and ball-hawking brethren."
Others Receiving Votes: Christian Gonzalez, New England Patriots (1 vote), Jack Campbell, Detroit Lions (1 vote)
Rookie of the Year
11 of 11
Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons (3 votes)
Over the previous four years, a quarterback or wide receiver has won Offensive Rookie of the Year, but our panel believes we'll see the return of the running back for this award.
Saquon Barkley is the last running back to claim the honor in 2018. And fittingly, a majority of the B/R voters favored Bijan Robinson, who's the last tailback to go top 10 in the draft since Barkley.
Davenport can see the top quarterbacks going through rough patches while Robinson runs wild in Atlanta's ball-control offense.
"As is the case with most awards, Rookie of the Year favors the quarterback position. But Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud and Anthony Richardson could all have just enough growing pains to open the door for someone else. Robinson averaged over six yards per carry last year at Texas, and he joins a Falcons team that was third in rushing and first in rush attempts in 2022. There's a genuine chance that Robinson will lead the league in rushing as a rookie."
Others Receiving Votes: Will Anderson Jr., Houston Texans (1 vote), Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts (1 vote)
College football statistics are provided by cfbstats.com.
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