Minnesota Twins: Predicting the Records for the Twins' Starting Pitchers in 2012

Last season, nine different pitchers started a game for the Minnesota Twins. For the worst team in the American League, finishing the season with a 63-99 record, it's no surprise that only one of them had a winning record. 

As the dust settles, it appears that general manager Terry Ryan is done adding players for 2012.

Indications are that if the Twins are going to improve in 2012, it will be with many of the same pitchers from last season. Ryan has signed 20 free agents so far, and 11 of them are pitchers.

The problem is only two of them, closer Matt Capps and starter Jason Marquis, are currently on the Twins' 40-man roster.

The biggest addition to the Twins rotation may have been through subtraction. Ryan traded disgruntled starter Kevin Slowey to the Colorado Rockies for relief pitcher Daniel Turpin—who, with only one appearance in five seasons at the Triple-A level, will provide no help for the Twins in 2012.

With catchers and pitchers reporting for spring training in about six weeks, it looks like the Twins starting rotation will be Carl Pavano, Francisco Liriano, Scott Baker, Jason Marquis and Nick Blackburn.

Besides these five, look for Brian Duensing, who will move back into the long relief role, and Anthony Swarzak, who made 11 starts in 27 appearances last season, to get an occasional start next season as well.

It doesn't provide a whole lot of hope for Twins fans in 2012.

Last season, Twins starters were a combined 46-71, averaging a little less than six innings per start with a 4.64 ERA, the third highest in the American League, better than only the Orioles and Royals.

Here's my early prediction as to how each of these starters will do in 2012.

Staff Ace, Carl Pavano

Carl Pavano enters the 2012 season in the final year of the two-year extension he signed last January.

In 2010, Pavano had one of his best seasons. He finished 17-11 with a 3.75 ERA—the second highest win total and third lowest ERA in his career. He also led the American League with seven complete games and two shutouts.

In his two full seasons with the Twins, Pavano has averaged 221.5 innings. In his 13-year career, he has only pitched more than that once, in 2004 when he pitched 222.1 for the Florida Marlins.

To say he has been an innings-eater for the Twins would be an understatement. 

Unfortunately, like almost everyone on the Minnesota roster last season, Pavano had an off year in 2011. His record dropped to 9-13, and his ERA jumped to 4.30—it was the end of three consecutive years where Pavano improved his ERA.

If the Twins defense improves over 2011, then so will Pavano's success.

Working for his next contract, Pavano will continue to lead the Twins' pitching staff.

Pavano's numbers for 2012:

Record: 17-12

ERA: 4.10

Innings pitched: 210-220

The Ace the Twins Are Hoping For, Francisco Liriano

When Francisco Liriano broke into the Twins' starting rotation in 2006, he was pitching as well as the Cy Young-winning pitcher, Johan Santana.

Liriano opened the season with a 12-3 mark and was leading the American League with a 2.19 ERA. His name was being thrown not only into AL Rookie of the Year consideration, but for the Cy Young as well.

In August of the season, he experienced pain in his throwing elbow. It eventually led to Tommy John surgery in the offseason, causing him to miss the entire 2007 season.

Since then, the Twins have been holding out hope that he we will regain that dominance.

The problem is, he has been extremely inconsistent since returning in 2008.

In the odd-numbered years of 2009 and 2011, he is 14-23 with a 5.45 ERA and a 1.52 WHIP.

Compare that to the even-numbered years of 2008 and 2010. He is 20-14, with a 3.71 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP.

In 2010, he opened the season earning the AL Pitcher of the Month in April, when he won three of four starts and had a 0.98 ERA.

With this being an even year, manager Ron Gardenhire and pitching coach Rick Anderson must be hoping the trend continues. 

Liriano will have a better season in 2012 than 2011, but he will still frustrate Gardenhire and Twins fans with his inconsistency.

Liriano's numbers for 2012:

Record: 14-14

ERA: 4.22

Innings pitched: 180-190

Longest Tenured Twins Starter, Scott Baker

Scott Baker has been a part of the Twins' starting rotation longer than any other pitcher on the Twins roster.

He first made his debut with the Twins in 2005 and has been a fixture in the rotation since 2006.

Baker's 2011 season was a dichotomy of statistics for him.

Due to a flexor strain in his pitching elbow, he was limited to 134.2 innings pitched, the fewest since 2006. At the same time, his 3.14 ERA was second on the team and the lowest in his career. 

He has had only one losing season since making his major league debut, and that was in 2006, when he went 5-8.

Over his seven-year career, he is 63-48 with a 4.15 ERA. Baker will continue his winning ways.

Baker's numbers for 2012:

Record: 16-10

ERA: 3.45

Innings pitched: 170-180

Newcomer, Jason Marquis

After 12 seasons pitching at the major league level, Minnesota will be Jason Marquis' sixth team—the first in the American League.

He comes to the American League with a career 104-98 record and a 4.55 ERA. Only twice in his 12 seasons has he finished with an ERA under 4.00.

The last two seasons he has suffered injuries that have limited his appearances. In 2010, it was bone chips in his elbow, and last season, after being traded to Arizona, he suffered a broken fibula. 

In the previous six seasons, from 2004 to 2009, he went 80-68 with a 4.49 ERA and averaged 196 innings.

Marquis, who will turn 34 in August, is the second oldest pitcher on the roster, behind Carl Pavano. He might start the season strong due to teams not being familiar with him, but in the end, the results will be pretty close to what he's delivered pitching in the National League.

Marquis' numbers for 2012:

Record: 10-12

ERA: 4.61

Innings pitched: 160-170

'How Does He Do It?' Nick Blackburn

The Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde of the Twins' staff has got to be Nick Blackburn.

Within a season, he will have stretches where he is almost unhittable, followed by a losing streak where he cannot get anyone out. 

In 2010, he opened the season with a 6-1 record in April and May. He then proceeded to go 1-6 in June and July. Last season in April, he opened the season 1-4, then went 3-0 in May. 

In his career with the Twins, he is 39-46 with a 4.50 ERA and has never had a winning season. The best he's done is 11-11 in 2008 and 2009.

Yet, he continues to find a spot in the Twins rotation. He must have something on Ron Gardenhire or Rick Anderson.

It will be more of the same with Blackburn.

Blackburn's numbers for 2012:

Record: 11-13 (if he lasts that long)

ERA: 4.98

Innings pitched: 160-170

Long Reliever and Spot Starter, Brian Duensing

Brian Duensing was the Twins' best pitcher in 2010. He had a 10-3 record with a team-best 2.62 ERA appearing in 53 games, with 13 starts.

Manager Ron Gardenhire and pitching coach Rick Anderson gave Duensing the chance to be a part of the starting rotation in 2011, a role that does not appear best suited for him. He finished with a 9-14 record with a 5.23 ERA, the highest of any regular starter last season.

It looks like Duensing is headed back to the bullpen for 2012.

Because of his success in the combo role of reliever-starter, he will get the ball in the first inning on occasion.

Duensing will rebound with a strong season like he had in 2010.

Duensing's numbers for 2012:

Record: 9-4

Starts: 10 games

ERA: 3.61

Innings pitched: 130-140

Spot Starter Anthony Swarzak

Over eight seasons in the minors, Anthony Swarzak has started 149 of 152 games. Over two seasons with the Twins, he has 25 starts in 43 appearances with a 7-14 record and a 5.03 ERA.

His professional career started at the age of 18, so heading into 2012, he will only be 25 years old.

Swarzak should get a good shot to make the opening day roster in 2012. The problem is he fills the same role in which Brian Duensing has excelled—long reliever with the ability to make the occasional start.

Swarzak's numbers for 2012:

Record: 5-5

ERA: 4.54

Innings pitched: 100-110

2011 Rule 5 Draft Pick, Scott Diamond

The Twins selected left-handed pitcher Scott Diamond from the Atlanta Braves as a Rule 5 draft pick. They eventually made a deal with Atlanta in order to keep Diamond and have him pitch in the minors.

He made his major league debut last July, going 1-5 in seven starts. The plan will be to give him another year at Triple-A, pitching for the Red Wings in Rochester.

Look for Diamond to be called up in September.

Diamond's numbers for 2012:

Record: 1-1

Starts: 4

ERA: 5.60

Innings pitched: 30-40

Rookie Free Agent, Liam Hendriks

The Twins signed Liam Hendriks as a rookie free agent in 2007 at the age of 18.

He missed the 2008 season after having back surgery.

After only four minor league seasons, he made his major league debut last September, when he was called up from Triple-A Rochester. In four starts, he went 0-2 with a 6.17 ERA. 

In 68 games, he's started 66 of them, with only nine of them at the Triple-A level.

The only way Hendriks will see any action before September again will be if he tears up the International League, pitching for the Red Wings.

Ousted Starter, Kevin Slowey

Kevin Slowey probably wishes the 2011 season never happened.

For some reason, Slowey found himself as the odd man out when he didn't earn a starting job in spring training. He was assigned to the bullpen—a role he did not take well.

The inability to warm up quickly and making himself unavailable after repeatedly warming up did not sit well with manager Ron Gardenhire, and Slowey found himself in Rochester, pitching for the Red Wings.   

Since breaking into the Twins' starting rotation in 2007, Slowey was 39-21 with a 4.41 ERA heading into the 2011 season. Only Scott Baker had won more games for the Twins over that time period. 

Slowey will be looking to prove to the Twins that he is still a good pitcher.

The thin air of Colorado could be a problem for him. 

If Slowey can impress the Rockies' manager Jim Tracy and pitching coach Bob Apodaca, he should have a shot to make their rotation.  A quick scan of the Rockies' 40-man roster only has three pitchers that started more than 20 game last season.

Slowey's numbers for 2012:

Record: 14-9

ERA: 4.40

Innings pitched: 160-170