Jarred Kelenic, Jo Adell, 10 Former Top Prospects Who Can Finally Break Out in 2023
Some MLB players simply take longer to develop than others.
For every Julio Rodríguez and Adley Rutschman who burst onto the scene and make an immediate impact, there are far more players who take some time to find their footing in the big leagues, and that's true of even some of the biggest stars in the sport.
Mike Trout hit .220/.281/.390 in 135 plate appearances in his first MLB action during the 2011 season, while Mariano Rivera had a 5.51 ERA in 67 innings during his rookie season with the New York Yankees in 1995.
Ahead, we've highlighted 10 former top prospects who failed to make an instant splash but could be on their way to finally breaking through thanks to hot starts either at the majors or in the upper levels of the minors.
Included is a look at each player's peak on the Baseball America Top 100 prospect list.
Other Former Top Prospects to Watch
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OF JJ Bleday, Oakland Athletics
Top 100 List Peak: No. 43 in 2021
The A's acquired Bleday from the Miami Marlins in exchange for A.J. Puk during the offseason, and he could get a look in the majors in short order. The No. 4 overall pick in the 2019 draft is hitting .286/.378/.540 with nine extra-base hits in 16 games at Triple-A, and he has tallied 10 walks in 74 plate appearances.
SS Geraldo Perdomo, Arizona Diamondbacks
Top 100 List Peak: No. 72 in 2020
There might not be a bigger regression candidate in baseball right now than Perdomo. The 23-year-old is hitting .389/.476/.639 in 44 plate appearances, but those impressive numbers are accompanied by a .208 expected batting average, an absurd .520 BABIP and some of the worst batted-ball metrics in the league. Nevertheless, his start is worth a mention.
RHP Bryse Wilson, Milwaukee Brewers
Top 100 List Peak: No. 80 in 2019
Once a top prospect in Atlanta's system, Wilson was traded to the Pittsburgh Pirates in the Richard Rodríguez deal at the 2021 deadline. He spent the bulk of last year in the Pirates rotation, posting a 5.52 ERA in 115.2 innings over 20 starts and five relief appearances. The Brewers acquired him for cash in January, and he has an 0.82 ERA in 11 innings of work out of the bullpen with a pair of three-inning saves.
OF Jo Adell, Los Angeles Angels
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Top 100 List Peak: No. 3 in 2020
Jo Adell flashed legitimate five-tool potential in the lower levels of the Los Angeles Angels' farm system after going No. 10 overall in the 2017 draft, and he quickly climbed to the top tier of leaguewide prospect lists in the process.
He has continued to rake in the upper levels of the minors but has yet to find success in the majors when given the chance.
In sporadic big-league action over the past three years, Adell has hit .215/.259/.356 with 21 doubles, 15 home runs, 60 RBI while posting an unsightly 194-to-26 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 557 plate appearances.
The 24-year-old is hitting .271/.388/.686 with eight home runs in 18 games at Triple-A to start the year, though his 25 strikeouts in 85 plate appearances remain a red flag. Still, it's only a matter of time before he gets another opportunity in the Angels outfield.
1B/OF Jake Bauers, New York Yankees
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Top 100 List Peak: No. 45 in 2018
The Tampa Bay Rays acquired Jake Bauers in the massive three-team deal that sent Wil Myers to San Diego and a young Trea Turner to the Washington Nationals prior to the 2015 season. For several years, Bauers was viewed as the first baseman of the future in Tampa Bay.
He was on the move again ahead of the 2019 season, going to Cleveland in the three-team deal that sent Yandy Díaz to the Rays. He saw regular MLB action throughout the 2019 season but hit just .226/.312/.371 for a 78 OPS+ with 16 doubles, 12 home runs, 43 RBI and minus-0.9 WAR in 117 games.
After not playing at all during the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, he bounced around from Cleveland to Seattle to Cincinnati before the New York Yankees acquired him for cash considerations last June.
The 27-year-old is now hitting .327/.484/.796 with six home runs and 14 RBI in 16 games at Triple-A Scranton Wilkes-Barre, and he could get another big-league chance soon with Giancarlo Stanton set to miss extended time.
RHP Brent Honeywell, San Diego Padres
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Top 100 List Peak: No. 14 in 2018
Right-hander Brent Honeywell went 13-9 with a 3.49 ERA and 172 strikeouts in 136.2 innings between Double-A and Triple-A during the 2017 season to emerge as one of baseball's top pitching prospects.
Unfortunately, a series of injuries that included Tommy John surgery, a fractured bone in his right elbow and a compression procedure on his right ulnar nerve led to him missing the entire 2018, 2019 and 2020 seasons.
He finally returned to action in 2021 and made his MLB debut in April, but he spent the bulk of the year in Triple-A and was traded to Oakland for cash considerations that offseason.
After spending all of last year in the minors, he was granted free agency and signed with the San Diego Padres. He has carved out a role in the team's bullpen in the early going, posting a 1.46 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 9.5 K/9 with two wins and two holds in eight appearances.
OF Jarred Kelenic, Seattle Mariners
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Top 100 List Peak: No. 4 in 2021
One of the most hyped prospects in recent memory, Jarred Kelenic debuted with a thud during the 2021 season, hitting .181/.265/.350 with a 28.1 percent strikeout rate in 377 plate appearances.
The 23-year-old spent the bulk of last season crushing Triple-A pitching, but it was more of the same in the big leagues, as he hit .141/.221/.313 for a 54 OPS+ in 181 plate appearances with an even more troubling 33.7 percent strikeout rate.
Despite his age and clear upside, those early struggles made 2023 something of a make-or-break season, and he has made the most of it thus far.
He is hitting .310/.385/.603 in 65 plate appearances with five doubles, four home runs and 0.7 WAR through 17 games, and he has become a staple in the No. 6 spot in the batting order behind newcomer Teoscar Hernández.
IF/OF Nolan Jones, Colorado Rockies
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Top 100 List Peak: No. 45 in 2021
Nolan Jones was one of the top prospects in the Cleveland farm system for several years running, checking in at No. 1 on the organizational list in 2020, sandwiched between the No. 2 ranking in 2019 and 2021.
Elite plate discipline has been his calling card throughout his time in the minors, with a 16.2 percent walk rate and .397 on-base percentage over more than 500 minor league games. However, his in-game power never quite developed as hoped, and his defense at third base has been lacking as well.
The 24-year-old made his MLB debut last summer and posted a 96 OPS+ with two home runs and 13 RBI in 28 games, but that wasn't enough to secure his roster spot. He was traded to the Colorado Rockies during the offseason in exchange for infield prospect Juan Brito.
With a .377/.484/.830 line that includes seven home runs and 22 RBI in 13 games at Triple-A Albuquerque, the Rockies will need to find a place for him on the roster soon.
LHP Matthew Liberatore, St. Louis Cardinals
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Top 100 List Peak: No. 42 in 2020
Still only 23 years old, left-hander Matthew Liberatore has been ranked among the game's top pitching prospects for years now going back to his time with the Tampa Bay Rays, which selected him No. 16 overall in 2018.
The St. Louis Cardinals acquired him in the deal that sent Randy Arozarena to Tampa Bay, but there is still time for Liberatore to balance the scales of that trade.
He made his MLB debut last May, but struggled to a 5.97 ERA and 1.73 WHIP in 34.2 innings while allowing a .304 opponents' batting average.
Back at the Triple-A level to start the 2023 season, he has a 2.38 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and a 30-to-8 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 22.2 innings. The Cardinals' starting rotation currently ranks 25th in the majors with a 5.60 ERA, so he could soon provide an in-house boost.
OF Josh Lowe, Tampa Bay Rays
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Top 100 List Peak: No. 44 in 2022
A first-round pick in 2016, Josh Lowe vaulted himself onto top prospect lists when he hit .291/.381/.535 with 28 doubles, 22 home runs, 78 RBI and 26 steals at Triple-A during the 2021 season.
That led to his first extended MLB action last season, but he hit just .221/.284/.343 with a 33.3 percent strikeout rate in 198 plate appearances and was something of a forgotten man heading into the 2023 season with Randy Arozarena, José Siri and Manuel Margot expected to be the starting outfielders.
Instead, he is steadily playing his way into the starting right field job with a red-hot start at the plate.
The 25-year-old is hitting .362/.412/.745 with six doubles, four home runs and 13 RBI in 51 plate appearances, though he ranks near the bottom of the league in average exit velocity (8th percentile) and hard-hit rate (23rd percentile), so there is some regression risk.
OF Brandon Marsh, Philadelphia Phillies
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Top 100 List Peak: No. 38 in 2021
The Philadelphia Phillies plugged a major hole in center field last summer when they traded catching prospect Logan O'Hoppe to the Los Angeles Angels in exchange for Brandon Marsh.
He hit .288/.319/.455 with 14 extra-base hits and a 117 OPS+ in 138 plate appearances with the Phillies following the trade after a lackluster start to the year with the Angels, and he has used those strong final two months as a jumping-off point for a breakout season.
The 25-year-old leads the National League with a .712 slugging percentage and 203 OPS+ through 66 plate appearances, and he is batting .356 with six doubles, three triples and three home runs.
He still has work to do cutting down his 31.8 percent strikeout rate, but his strong batted-ball metrics make it easier to buy his breakout performance.
RHP Nate Pearson, Toronto Blue Jays
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Top 100 List Peak: No. 7 in 2020
A flame-throwing right-hander plucked from the JUCO ranks with the No. 28 overall pick in the 2017 draft, Nate Pearson established himself as one of baseball's top pitching prospects when he posted a 2.30 ERA, 0.89 WHIP and 119 strikeouts in 101.2 innings over three minor-league levels in 2019.
Expected to contend for 2020 AL Rookie of the Year honors, he instead struggled to a 6.00 ERA with 13 walks over 18 innings in his first MLB opportunity before a strained flexor tendon ended his season.
He has spent the bulk of the past two seasons battling injuries, and he transitioned to the bullpen at Triple-A Buffalo last season where his triple-digits fastball has a chance to play up in short stints.
After an impressive run in the Dominican Winter League during the offseason, he has struck out 15 of 30 batters faced at Triple-A while posting a 2.45 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 7.1 innings. The 26-year-old could emerge as a major late-inning weapon before 2023 is over.
OF Victor Robles, Washington Nationals
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Top 100 List Peak: No. 5 in 2018
How hyped was Victor Robles during his time in the Washington Nationals farm system?
"From his athleticism to his immense physical tools and his baseball savvy, Robles has the makings of becoming a true franchise player for the Nationals, one who has the upside of a perennial All-Star and possibly an MVP candidate," wrote MLB.com prior to the 2018 season.
He had a productive rookie season in 2019, hitting .255/.326/.419 with 33 doubles, 17 home runs, 65 RBI, 86 runs scored and 28 steals in a 4.4-WAR season for the eventual World Series champions, but his development has stalled in the years since.
Over the past three seasons, he has hit just .216/.291/.306 for a 69 OPS+ that ranked 326th among the 342 players with at least 500 plate appearances during that span.
Still just 25 years old, he is hitting .288/.373/.327 in 62 plate appearances this season, and with his solid outfield defense, he can be a valuable player with only slightly above-average offensive production.
All stats courtesy of Baseball Reference and accurate through Thursday's games.
