Predicting Future Contracts for Saquon Barkley, Stars Missing NFL Offseason Program
It's time for an annual rite of passage across the NFL: skipping voluntary workouts.
On some level, it's unfair to even call it "skipping" the workouts. After all, they are voluntary. But for some players, these workouts are a chance to send a message. That message is "pay me."
When the New York Giants kick off their offseason workouts, they will be without running back Saquon Barkley and defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence. New York Jets defensive tackle Quinnen Williams is sitting out as well. So is Las Vegas Raiders running back Josh Jacobs. And Jacksonville Jaguars tight end Evan Engram. And Minnesota Vikings edge-rusher Danielle Hunter. And the player at the center of the biggest contract impasse in the NFL, Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson.
All of them are sitting out for the same reason: They're looking for a new contract.
Not all of these players will get their wish. Some have received the franchise tag. Others are under contract. But in most cases, it makes sense to extend these stars.
With that in mind, here's a look at the sort of paydays these players can expect.
Saquon Barkley, RB, New York Giants
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Lamar Jackson isn't the only player who may regret turning down an extension last season.
According to SNY's Connor Hughes, the New York Giants twice offered running back Saquon Barkley a contract last year that averaged over $12 million per season. Barkley balked both times, and the Giants have now pulled the offer off the table.
"There was a contract offer on the table with a Giants letterhead for Saquon Barkley to sign during the bye week that would have paid him $12.5 million annually," Hughes wrote. "There was another, for a smidge more, pushed across after the season ended. Barkley turned down both. And now, the table is bare."
To say that Barkley misplayed his hand is an understatement. Because in the months since, the running back market has all but disappeared.
Granted, no tailback as talented as Barkley hit the open market. But the contracts signed by the likes of Miles Sanders and David Montgomery were for a fraction of what the Giants offered Barkley during the season. Meanwhile, the Minnesota Vikings are reportedly considering moving on from Dalvin Cook and his $14.1 million cap hit in 2023, according to Alex Lewis of The Athletic.
Barkley is an important part of a Giants team that hopes to make a deep playoff run this year. But it's entirely possible that the Giants will just pay him $10.1 million under the franchise tag and call it a day.
Even if the Giants do ink Barkley an extension that approaches their offer from last year, it's going to be a relatively short-term deal with an out after a few seasons. Running backs just aren't going to do better than that in today's NFL.
Projected Contract: Three years, $37 million, $22 million guaranteed
Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens
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The contract impasse between the Baltimore Ravens and Lamar Jackson has been one of the dominant storylines of the 2023 offseason. But as ESPN's Adam Schefter reported (via Kyle Barber of Baltimore Beatdown) negotiations with Jackson date all the way back to September of last year.
"Chris Mortensen and I reported on this last September, when Lamar Jackson was offered a deal that he turned down. A deal that included at the time he was offered $133 million due at signing," Schefter said. "$133 million guaranteed. The contract also had injury guarantees that brought the guarantees to $175 million and it then had a springing guarantee that could've brought the value for the contract, the guaranteed money of the contract to $200 million in guarantees... and yes, those were the actual numbers and that was the situation. So those really were the guarantees for Lamar Jackson."
At the time, Jackson turned that contract down amid speculation that he wanted more in guarantees than the $230 million Deshaun Watson got from Cleveland. But a more recent development would seem to indicate that in terms of guarantees, that first offer is likely as good as it's going to get for Jackson.
Per ESPN, the Philadelphia Eagles and Jalen Hurts agreed to terms Monday on a five-year, $255 million extension that includes $179 million in guarantees. Tom Pelissero & Ian Rapoport of NFL.com reported that the pact includes $110 million fully guaranteed at signing and $126.5 million fully guaranteed by March 2024.
In other words, Hurts just accepted essentially the deal that Jackson was offered. And while Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert may get slightly larger deals, the bar has been set.
Jackson's new deal likely won't clear it. Not now.
Projected Contract: Four years, $191 million, $118 million guaranteed
Josh Jacobs, RB, Las Vegas Raiders
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Saquon Barkley isn't the only big-name running back who's unhappy about receiving the franchise tag. Josh Jacobs of the Las Vegas Raiders posted a cryptic message on his Instagram account that would appear to be warning the Vegas front office not to shortchange him on a new deal.
"Respect goes both ways," Jacobs wrote. "Would hate to see it."
That wasn't the first time that Jacobs made it clear he expects to be well compensated after leading the league in rushing last year. The 25-year-old told reporters at the Pro Bowl that if he was forced to play under the tag in 2023, it would be a matter of "hero turned villain."
"I feel like I'm in the driver's seat, you know what I'm saying?" Jacobs said. "I control the ship. However it goes, that's how it's going to go, you know what I'm saying? So, I'm not too much worried about it, but it's definitely got to make sense."
However, according to Vincent Bonsignore of the Las Vegas Review-Journal, the Raiders don't appear to be overly motivated to get an extension done—at least not yet.
"Jacobs and the Raiders have not yet engaged in any meaningful talks, although that could change at any moment," Bonsignore wrote. "With so much focus on the upcoming NFL draft, it stands to reason both sides will reconvene after the draft to try to find some common ground."
In some respects, Jacobs is in an even worse spot than Barkley. The Raiders are closer to rebuilding than contending, and there's no point in a rebuilding team spending big on a running back.
So, Jacobs can either take the offer that makes sense for Vegas, hold out or play in 2023 under the franchise tag. The latter is the most likely outcome.
Projected Contract: One year, $10.1 million, $10.1 million guaranteed (franchise tag)
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Evan Engram, TE, Jacksonville Jaguars
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Back in January, Jacksonville Jaguars general manager Trent Baalke told reporters that the team was interested in signing tight end Evan Engram to an extension after he set career highs in receptions (73) and receiving yards (766) in his first season with the Jags.
"Obviously, we would love to have Evan back," Baalke said. "Evan and I visited, and he went around the building and visited with everybody. I think it's mutual. Now we got to make it happen. That's something that we're going to work on with Evan, and all the other free agents that we have. We have a list of them that we got to mow down one at a time."
Those sentiments were echoed by Engram during an appearance on SiriusXM NFL Radio.
"Hopefully something gets done; it's mutual," Engram said. "We haven't had too many conversations yet, but the interest is there on both sides for me to come back, and obviously I would love to come back as well."
However, it isn't especially surprising that the two sides have yet to reach a long-term deal. Engram had a solid 2022 season, but he had both durability and consistency issues in the past. Signing him to a long-term deal well in excess of the $11.3 million that he's set to make under the franchise tag this year would be a risky proposition.
Engram playing under the tag in 2023 is a real possibility. But inking him to a three-year deal that would just about double his guaranteed cash could work for both player and team.
Projected Contract: Three years, $39 million, $22.5 million guaranteed
Dexter Lawrence, DT, New York Giants
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Saquon Barkley isn't the only New York Giants player who's skipping voluntary workouts.
It has been a rough offseason for running backs, but it's been a great year to be a defensive tackle. Daron Payne re-signed with the Washington Commanders on a four-year, $90 million deal. Jeffery Simmons got a four-year, $94 million extension from the Tennessee Titans. Javon Hargrave got a four-year, $84 million deal from the San Francisco 49ers in free agency.
Giants defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence now wants his big payday.
Lawrence, the 17th overall pick in the 2019 draft, had easily the best season of his career in 2022. After tallying only nine sacks over his first three seasons combined, Lawrence exploded for 7.5 sacks last season. He also added a career-high 68 total tackles and piled up a whopping 28 quarterback hits.
While speaking to reporters, Giants quarterback Daniel Jones said he doesn't expect the contract impasses for Lawrence and Barkley to affect the team as they prepare for 2023.
"Those are business situations, and those guys have to go about them how they see fit," Jones said. "I certainly respect that, I think we all do, knowing those two guys. They're team-first guys, they're great teammates to everybody and everybody in our locker room has a tremendous amount of respect for both of them."
Where Lawrence is concerned, Jones is right. Teams don't let Pro Bowl defensive tackles sniff free agency, and they aren't shy about handing out big bucks to those players, either.
While Lawrence is undoubtedly about to get a huge raise, signing him to an extension could save the Giants money against the cap this year. Perhaps they could use that money to help pay Saquon Barkley.
Projected Contract: Four years, $95.5 million, $61 million guaranteed
Quinnen Williams, DT, New York Jets
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Dexter Lawrence isn't the only defensive tackle from the 2019 draft class looking to hit the jackpot after Jeffery Simmons got paid. Quinnen Williams of the New York Jets wants his own truck full of cash, too.
Back in February, New York Jets general manager Joe Douglas told reporters that the team was already talking to Williams' agent, Nicole Lynn, and that negotiations were headed in a positive direction.
"We've had several good discussions with Nicole and Quinnen since the season," Douglas said. "We feel really good about where we're at. We feel good that this process is going to play out in the right way."
In four seasons with the Jets, Williams has amassed over 50 tackles three times. He has tallied 27.5 sacks, including a career-high 12 last year. In 2022, Williams was named a first-team All-Pro and a Pro Bowler.
Williams is arguably the best 3-technique tackle in the league not named Aaron Donald. He's a game-changer who is just now entering the prime of his career.
That isn't to say Williams should get a contract that rivals Donald's whopping $31.7 million per season. As is the case with most contracts this massive, the Jets would be wise to bake an out into the deal after a few years.
But Williams is going to get north of $25 million per season. And he's worth it, too.
Projected Contract: Five years, $130 million, $77.5 million guaranteed
Danielle Hunter, DE, Minnesota Vikings
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Unlike most of the players featured here, Minnesota Vikings edge-rusher Danielle Hunter has already received a big payday. Back in 2018, Hunter signed a five-year, $72 million extension that included $40 million in guarantees.
The Vikings added a few voidable years when they reworked Hunter's deal in 2021 to prevent a holdout, but for all intents and purposes, the 2023 season is the last on his deal. And with a relatively modest base salary of $4.9 million this year, Hunter seemingly wants a new contract, according to ESPN's Jeremy Fowler.
The 28-year-old has already deleted all team photos from his social media accounts, and it's possible the Vikings could shop the disgruntled edge-rusher in trade talks. But with over $11 million in bonus money on the books for those voidable years, the Vikings aren't going to release Hunter. Doing so before June 1 would cost them an additional $5.7 million in cap space.
The thing is, extending Hunter could be a little tricky.
When he's on his game, Hunter is one of the NFL's better edge-rushers. He has four seasons with double-digit sacks, including three of the past four years. The three-time Pro Bowler has also posted at least 65 tackles three times.
However, staying on the field has been an issue for Hunter at times. He missed the entire 2020 season with a neck injury and missed over half the following year with a torn pectoral muscle. Add in that he will turn 30 during his next deal, and there's at least some risk involved.
Hunter would all but certainly generate more interest on the trade market than fellow edge-rusher Za'Darius Smith, who is already the wrong side of 30. But since the Vikings fashion themselves as contenders, the most likely outcome here is an extension that both locks down Hunter as a linchpin for Brian Flores' defense and potentially buys Minnesota some short-term salary-cap relief.
Projected Contract: Four years, $92.5 million, $57.5 million guaranteed
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