NBA Teams at a Crossroads This Offseason
Playoff disappointments, or the failure to reach the postseason at all, tend to trigger difficult offseason decisions. But some NBA teams face bigger pivot points than others.
The good news is that all of the squads facing critical, franchise-altering quandaries are in such difficult positions because they had high expectations. Rebuilders, bottom-feeders and lottery participants don't often have multiple roads to choose from. They're just trying to find any path worth traveling.
The teams we'll cover here have options. Choosing among them will determine whether the next season (or several seasons) conclude with better results or run more smoothly than this one. From coaching flight risks to free agency, to fundamental questions about the kind of organization, say, the Atlanta Hawks want to be, tough calls are on the horizon.
Not to get too dramatic, but a dynasty might even be at stake.
Dallas Mavericks
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The Dallas Mavericks aren't at a crossroads in the usual sense. They don't have two equally appealing paths ahead of them. They chose their route when they traded for Kyrie Irving and are all but fated to bring him back on a pricey new deal because the alternativeโclearing somewhere between $20-30 million in cap space to pursue defense-boosting free agentsโisn't a viable one.
That would require letting Irving walk for nothing (or, improbably, signing and trading him), renouncing rights to Christian Wood, Dwight Powell, Justin Holiday and a host of others and opting not to pay Reggie Bullock's $10.5 million salary for 2023-24 (he's getting $5.4 million of that money regardless via partial guarantee).
The risks of retaining the notoriously unreliable Irving are immense. If this goes wrong, or if spending max-level money on an offense-first guard makes it impossible to build the necessary defensive infrastructure around him and Luka Donฤiฤ, disaster could ensue. Donฤiฤ made assurances that he's happy in Dallas and that there's nothing for the team to worry about, but superstars in mismanaged/losing situations don't always telegraph their intention to demand a trade ahead of time.
They're only happy until they're not.
It would be naive to look at the way Dallas went from the Conference Finals to the lottery without acknowledging the possibility that every decision the team makes this offseason could push Donฤiฤ closer to an exit request.
So, in addition to getting the Irving deal right (no more than three years, please), the Mavs have to connect on virtually every other move. A repeat of last offseasonโlosing Jalen Brunson for nothing, trading a first-rounder for Christian Wood and grossly overpaying for JaVale McGeeโwould be catastrophic.
This is the summer that could determine whether Donฤiฤ is a Mavs lifer or the next frustrated superstar to demand a trade.
Toronto Raptors
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The Toronto Raptors' very soul is at stake this offseason.
OK, that's a little hyperbolic, but how else do you describe a summer in which a team's entire identity and philosophy hang in the balance?
Let's start with head coach Nick Nurse, whose tactical acumen and willingness to embrace some truly uncommon ideas played a key role in the team's 2019 championship. On March 31, he told reporters he'd "take a few weeks to see where I'm at" once "a difficult season from a number of standpoints" was over. On April 21, the team relieved him of his head-coaching duties.
Sometimes, coaching tenures end naturally. Relationships run their course. Players need a new voice. But Nurse's departure may only be the beginning of an offseason that largely reforms the franchise.
Jakob Poeltl will be an unrestricted free agent, and Fred VanVleet and Gary Trent Jr. can hit the market via player options. Toronto must decide whom to bring back and at what cost, which won't be as simple as it seems. Those players are keys to shoring up two of the team's main weaknesses, half-court scoring and interior defense, but Toronto might struggle to justify spending lavishly on them after a .500 season. After all, how helpful could they have really been if the results were so mediocre?
An even bigger overhaul could be on the horizon. OG Anunoby and Pascal Siakam have both been residents of the rumor mill over the past couple of seasons, and the former can become a free agent in 2024. Blockbuster trades aren't out of the question.
More broadly, the Raptors' two-year experiment with multi-forward, positionally hazy fivesomes could be up for examination. The benefits have been obvious: Toronto's rangy lineups produce turnovers in bunches and convert those opponent miscues into loads of transition chances. But the lack of intuitive passing bogged down countless possessions, and we already noted how half-court scoring and rim protection were challenges all year.
The Raptors must pick a new leader, decide which key players are keepers and reassess the strategy they've relied upon for a long timeโwith no guarantee that change for change's sake will produce better results.
Golden State Warriors
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Golden State Warriors President of Basketball Operations Bob Myers is not under contract for the 2023-24 season, which makes him the first domino in what could be a cascade of change for the most successful franchise of the last decade.
If the architect of Golden State's dynasty doesn't return on a new deal, it would be far easier for another executive (perhaps owner Joe Lacob's son and Executive VP of Basketball Ops Kirk Lacob) to meaningfully alter an aging but proud and decorated roster. One has to wonder whether some part of Myers doesn't want to tear down what he helped build. Maybe that's why he's entertaining other options.
The Dubs also have Draymond Green's potential free agency (via player option) to address. His suspension for Game 3 of the Warriors' first-round series against the Sacramento Kings cast the give-and-take of his presence on the roster into stark relief. The Warriors probably don't have any of their four championships without him, but Green may have also cost them at least one more ring. How much longer will the juice be worth the squeeze?
ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski also reported Klay Thompson "has an expectation" that he'll get a max-level extension this summer that could potentially push the team's payroll and luxury tax near $500 million.
The Warriors aren't obligated to offer Thompson anything in July and could let him play out the final year of his current deal, which will pay him $43.2 million in 2023-24. Negotiations may get emotional, as Golden State could note that Thompson isn't performing at a level that justifies that payout, and that he earned $68.1 million across 2019-20 and 2020-21 while on the shelf.
Thompson could respond by citing his indispensability to a four-time champion which, as counterarguments go, would be pretty compelling.
The Warriors may also need to consider moving on from Jordan Poole, whose abysmal defense and failure to improve on offense make the four-year, $140 million extension he signed last offseason unpalatable. Rotation mainstay Donte DiVincenzo has a player option for just $4.7 million that his play this season suggests he'll decline before seeking out a larger deal.
If the Warriors improbably make another run to the Finals, maybe all parties will agree to stick together and ownership will stomach another historic tax bill. More likely, this summer will see a dynasty dismantled.
Atlanta Hawks
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When you've already fired the coach and turned over the management suite, there are only so many levers left to pull. This summer, the Atlanta Hawks could consider yanking on the one that would bring about the most dramatic change of all.
According to The Ringer's Kevin O'Connor: "With the offseason approaching, league sources say the Hawks' front office has the green light from ownership to do whatever it wants to with the roster, which includes considering trade opportunities involving All-Star point guard Trae Young."
Any attempt by Atlanta to trade Young in the coming months would be difficult. After another disappointing season marred by Young's failure to connect with his second straight head coach, rumors that teammates would have sided with the deposed Nate McMillan over Young if put to a decision and even a report that Young might be the one to trigger trade talks himself, the Hawks would be in a weak negotiating position.
And that's before considering that an offense-only lead guard with just one anomalously successful postseason on his resume and four more years at $178.1 million left on his deal may not appeal to many teams. If you trade for Young, you're committing to a fully heliocentric offensive system and urgently looking for defensive studs at the other four positions. That's a lot to take on.
Atlanta could think smaller by focusing on trading John Collins, but it's hard to imagine moving him would significantly raise the team's ceiling. The Hawks made several bold moves in search of improvement over the last couple of seasons, so the only option left may be to get even bolder by trading their franchise cornerstone.
Philadelphia 76ers
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James Harden's ability to opt out of his contract and enter free agency will put the Philadelphia 76ers in a difficult situation. Or three.
First, they'll have to decide whether they want him back at all. Another playoff flameout by the future Hall of Famer will weigh heavily on whether the Sixers are willing to spend what it takes to keep Harden on the team. With a second-round date against the Boston Celtics looming, the prospect of a disappointingly short playoff run is real. And if Harden reprises his long-running role of playoff no-show, the Sixers would be right to tighten up their purse strings and look elsewhere for Joel Embiid's next star running mate.
Embiid's opinion on the Sixers' direction will and should matter more than almost any other factor. How satisfied will he be with Harden and the franchise itself in the event of yet another second-round out?
Of course, the Sixers may not have any Harden replacement options available. They'll have to renounce their free-agent rights on several of their own players to clear even a modicum of spending spaceโand that's with Harden's own $46.9 million cap hold off the books. A sign-and-trade is possible if Harden really does have eyes for the Houston Rockets, but that setup always requires so much cooperation from multiple parties that it should be viewed as highly unlikely. Why would Houston give up anything if it could just sign Harden outright?
Philadelphia has been mixing and matching support pieces around Embiid for a while nowโBen Simmons, Markelle Fultz, Jimmy Butler, Tobias Harris, Hardenโand it has yet to reach a Conference Finals. Something will have to give if these playoffs end like the last few, particularly if Harden's struggles in big games persist.
Stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference and Cleaning the Glass. Salary info via Spotrac.
Grant Hughes covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@gt_hughes), and subscribe to the Hardwood Knocks podcast, where he appears with Bleacher Report's Dan Favale.
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