Realistic Expectations for Every CFB Program with a New Head Coach in 2023
The offseason is always a time for college football teams to dream. Add a new coach into the mix, and optimism usually builds for a fanbase.
Did the previous guy do a great job? Well, the recent hire should put forth an annual conference—and maybe even national—championship contender. Did the previous coach have a tough run? No worries! The incoming boss has a stronger plan and better staff.
While those are generalizations, of course, the reality is 24 programs in the Football Bowl Subdivision have new head coaches.
A handful may thrive early, but in many cases, a new head coach was brought in for a reason.
Some patience is required. Wins sold separately.
Tier 5: Tough Gig!
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One of my personal favorite hires in the recent carousel is Troy Taylor at Stanford because he'll bring an exciting uptempo offense to the Cardinal. Taylor went 30-8 in three seasons at Sacramento State.
But that transition is not a one-summer process.
G.J. Kinne, meanwhile, has a major challenge at Texas State. Not since 2013 has the program topped four victories, though if there's a bright side, it's that the Bobcats matched that number in each of the last two years.
In the American, both Charlotte's Biff Poggi and South Florida's Alex Golesh have embraced a rebuild. Charlotte won three games in 2022, and USF totaled four victories in the last three seasons.
Kenni Burns and Lance Taylor inherit MAC programs Kent State and Western Michigan, both of which are dealing with immense roster turnover. Kent State practically lost its offense to the transfer portal—including its quarterback, leading rusher and top receiver—and WMU has to reload defensively while aiming to turn around one of nation's worst offenses.
Tier 4: Competitive?
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If these programs don't make a bowl, it won't be a big surprise. But the path to a postseason game is definitely there.
Familiar names Tom Herman and Kevin Wilson—once the coaches at Texas and Indiana, respectively—have taken the helm at Florida Atlantic and Tulsa. Both programs should again be on the fringe of bowl eligibility.
UNLV has a similar outlook as former Missouri boss Barry Odom works to build on the Rebels' five-win year.
Navy promoted defensive coordinator Brian Newberry after firing longtime boss Ken Niumatalolo. At the very least, the transition should help the program retain an aura of familiarity.
Tier 3: Think Bowl Season
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The splashiest move of the carousel is naturally the most interesting. Really, what should we expect from Deion Sanders?
Colorado was abysmal in 2022. The offense ranked 127th in points per game out of 131 teams, and the defense finished dead last. Sanders' arrival has created a considerable rise in overall talent on the roster, so the Buffs should be somewhere in the neighborhood of bowl eligibility. Anything beyond that would be a nice surprise.
Many other coaches are hovering around this six-, seven-win outlook.
Among them is a collection of Power Five coaches: Kenny Dillingham (Arizona State), Hugh Freeze (Auburn), Scott Satterfield (Cincinnati), Jeff Brohm (Louisville), Zach Arnett (Mississippi State), Matt Rhule (Nebraska) and Ryan Walters (Purdue).
They'd take a little heat for missing a bowl, perhaps deservedly so, but no reasonable person is expecting a league title.
Brent Key is sort of an asterisk, considering he coached eight games as Georgia Tech's interim boss in 2022. But the Yellow Jackets pulled off an encouraging 4-4 record and made Key's title permanent.
Whether Trent Dilfer is a quality hire at UAB remains to be seen. Nevertheless, he inherits a program that has posted six straight winning seasons. UAB will be adjusting to life in the AAC alongside North Texas, which hired Eric Morris to elevate the Mean Green from a regular bowl contender to a conference title threat.
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Tier 2: Conference Runner-Up
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I do not enjoy the idea of placing Luke Fickell on this island.
Looking at the 2023 carousel, though, who else might oversee a nine-win program that isn't a conference favorite? The highest tier includes two teams Wisconsin would probably beat, but they're more likely to win their league than the Badgers in the Big Ten.
Such is life sharing a conference with two-time defending champ Michigan and annual powerhouse Ohio State.
On that note, Wisconsin hosts Ohio State but misses both Michigan and Penn State. Iowa comes to Madison, too. The schedule aligns nicely for a run to the Big Ten Championship Game.
Most notably, Fickell and coordinator Phil Longo brought in SMU quarterback Tanner Mordecai to run an Air Raid offense that will be a culture shock—but presumably a good one.
Tier 1: Trophy Watch
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Jamey Chadwell replaces Hugh Freeze at Liberty, which is preparing for its Conference USA debut.
And the Flames might make quite an entrance.
Liberty is a key C-USA contender next to Western Kentucky. The main piece of the puzzle for Chadwell is identifying the right quarterback to run his intriguing offense, which is certainly a big deal. But the surrounding skill-position talent should have Liberty in the conference race.
Chadwell left Coastal Carolina in a great spot for Tim Beck, a first-time head coach who previously coordinated offenses at Nebraska, Ohio State, Texas and North Carolina State.
In the last three seasons, CCU has registered a 31-7 record with quarterback Grayson McCall leading the scoring unit. He entered the transfer portal after Chadwell's exit but ultimately decided to stay at the Sun Belt program and lead an offense that is stacked with productive returning players.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
