How Jalen Hurts' Record Contract Impacts Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, NFL QB Market

Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts began his NFL career as a 2020 second-round pick and the backup to Carson Wentz. Less than three years later, he's an NFC champion and the NFL's new highest-paid player.

According to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport and Tom Pelissero, the Eagles signed Hurts to a five-year, $255 million extension on Monday. That tops Aaron Rodgers' $50.3 million-per-season deal with the Green Bay Packers in terms of annual salary.

Hurts' new contract includes $179.3 million in guarantees, the third-highest number behind the guarantees of Deshaun Watson and Kyler Murray. According to ESPN's Adam Schefter, it also includes a no-trade clause, a first for an Eagles contract.

This is obviously a great deal for Hurts, and it's great for the Eagles as well. Philadelphia now has an elite signal-caller and viable MVP candidate locked up through the 2028 season.

It's a not-so-good development for any NFL teams hoping to sign their signal-callers at a relative bargain, though. Because of the next-man-up nature of quarterback contracts, each extension seems to top the last in one metric or another.

Rodgers signed his contract on March 8 of last year and officially became the league's highest-paid player. Murray signed his extension with the Arizona Cardinals on July 21, and while his deal didn't top Rodgers' in terms of annual earnings, he did get roughly $38.7 million more in guarantees.

Russell Wilson, who was traded by the Seattle Seahawks early in the 2022 offseason, signed a five-year, $242.5 million extension with the Denver Broncos on September 1. His deal didn't top Rodgers' in terms of annual salary or Murray's in terms of total guarantees. However, it passed both with a whopping $124 million fully guaranteed at signing.

For extension-eligible star quarterbacks like Joe Burrow of the Cincinnati Bengals, Justin Herbert of the Los Angeles Chargers and Tua Tagovailoa of the Miami Dolphins—plus Lamar Jackson, who has yet to sign his franchise-tag tender with the Baltimore Ravens—Hurts and the Eagles just set a clear bar.

Tagovailoa may not get a record-setting deal right away because he's had only one season of Pro Bowl-caliber play and suffered multiple concussions in 2022. If Burrow, Herbert or Jackson ink long-term contracts this offseason, though, those deals will likely do one of the following:

• Be worth more annually than the $51 million per season that Hurts will earn.
• Include more in guaranteed money than the $189.5 million on Murray's deal
• Include more guaranteed at signing than the $124 million on Wilson's contract

Earlier this month, Brad Spielberger of Pro Football Focus projected Burrow to receive a four-year, $214 million extension with $185 million in guarantees. While Burrow wouldn't receive more total money than Hurts in that scenario, his $53.5 million annual salary would become the highest in league history.

If Burrow signs a five-year extension—the length of those signed by Murray, Wilson and Hurts—he could be looking at something in the $265 million range. Whichever quarterback signs after him could get a deal worth even more in terms of annual salary, total guarantees or immediate guarantees.

If Jackson, Herbert or Tagovailoa sign before Burrow, he could rightfully demand a deal worth even more. Hurts' extension could prompt a scramble by teams to get their respective quarterbacks under contract before the bar gets even higher.

With no end to quarterback inflation in sight, a deal signed in 2024 could be worth $55 million annually or more. Future quarterback contracts may also include no-trade clauses, powerful tools that helped Wilson and Watson pick their next teams.

Watson is the outlier in all of this. He's only the league's fifth-highest-paid quarterback in terms of annual value, but the $230 million deal he signed with the Cleveland Browns last offseason is fully guaranteed.

Watson wasn't the first quarterback to receive a fully guaranteed contract—Kirk Cousins did so with the Minnesota Vikings back in 2018—but his guaranteed money remains the most in league history. His contract had the potential to make fully guaranteed contracts the norm in the NFL.

Team owners have balked at that, though.

"I don't know that he should've been the first guy to get a fully guaranteed contract," Ravens owner Steve Bisciotti said last May in reference to Watson, per ESPN's Jamison Hensley. "To me, that's something that is groundbreaking, and it'll make negotiations harder with others."

"Our game is great and it's great for a number of reasons, but I don't think guaranteed contracts make our game greater, I think it makes it worse," Indianapolis Colts owner Jim Irsay said in March, per Bleacher Report's Adam Wells.

Guarantees appear to be a sticking point in Baltimore's negotiations with Jackson. According to Hensley, Jackson wants a fully guaranteed deal like Watson's, but the Ravens "have been reluctant to offer that because they believe Watson's deal is more of an outlier than a precedent."

Hurts' extension gives some credence to Baltimore's stance and works against Jackson. Hurts is a clear-cut top-five quarterback and is only 24 years old. If he can't command a fully guaranteed contract, who else should?

According to ESPN's Jeremy Fowler and Hensley, Jackson turned down a five-year, $250 million offer that included $133 million guaranteed at signing. Hurts' deal, which includes $110 million guaranteed at signing, makes the Ravens' reported offer for Jackson seem entirely reasonable.

Fully guaranteed contracts aren't going to become routine in the NFL, at least not in the immediate future. Jackson is free to sign another team's offer sheet, and he has also requested a trade. He should be able to land a raise from the $32.4 million he's set to earn on the franchise tag, but unless a team is desperate to land him—as the Browns were with Watson—he isn't likely to get the deal he reportedly wants.

Burrow, Tagovailoa and Herbert probably aren't getting fully guaranteed contracts, either. Hurts' extension has put a damper on that dream.

For any quarterback happy to make more than $50 million per year with more than 70 percent of that money guaranteed, however, Hurts' signing was a tremendous development.

---

Contract information via Spotrac.