Trade Ideas to Replace NBA's Most Disappointing Starters
Searching for prime trade candidates for the upcoming NBA offseason? The most disappointing players of the 2022-23 campaign is a great place to start.
Sure, trading a player when his stock is low is less than ideal, but the degree of disappointment with the following players was so severe there are reasons to think (or at least worry) their trade values will never recover. So, teams can cross their fingers, hope for the best and risk wasting another season, or they can cut their losses and get a deal done as soon as possible.
We're interested in that latter scenario here.
A few notes on the players selected before getting started. First, we're ignoring players who disappointed with injuries alone. Obviously, no one feels great about how the season played out for Lonzo Ball or Zion Williamson, but when good fortune on the health front is all they need to avoid further disappointment, then unloading them now wouldn't make much sense.
Second, we're only looking at players who came into this campaign with realistic expectations to perform. A role player having a rocky season just happens sometimes. Young players don't always make the immediate leaps that fans want to see. Neither situation ranks among the Association's biggest disappointments.
These four players—who all pocketed eight-figure salaries and operated primarily or exclusively in the starting lineup—were such enormous letdowns that a summer scenery change seems best for all involved.
John Collins Finally Gets Moved
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Indiana Pacers receive: John Collins
Atlanta Hawks receive: Buddy Hield
John Collins has spent the bulk of his six-year career on the trade block. It's possible he would have finally made the jump from the rumor mill to the transaction log this season had he not backtracked in such a major way.
When the buzzer sounded on his regular season, many of his numbers had dipped to new personal lows. That included his 6.5 rebounds, 50.8 field-goal percentage and 29.2 three-point percentage. His 13.1 points avoided this dubious distinction, but they only bettered the scoring output from his rookie season.
It was rough, but maybe not so bad that it scared away all suitors. The Pacers, for instance, have a glaring hole at power forward and could reasonably convince themselves their setup would be much more conducive to his success.
Sharing the frontcourt with a floor-spacer like Myles Turner instead of the paint-clogging Clint Capela would give Collins more room to operate as a pick-and-roll finisher. Collins would also see more usage in general after splitting from Trae Young and Dejounte Murray, who each attempted more shots than anyone in Indiana. When Collins has been featured, he has usually delivered. Between 2018-19 and 2020-21, he put up 19.3 points per night on 56.5/38.4/79.5 shooting.
At 25 years old, he is also young enough to fit in and grow with a core featuring the 27-year-old Turner, 23-year-old Tyrese Haliburton and 20-year-old Bennedict Mathurin. That's a nucleus that could make noise in the Eastern Conference sooner than later with the right pieces around it.
Buddy Hield, who turns 31 this December, exists on a different timeline. It's one that the win-now Hawks could much better accommodate.
Atlanta might be in the market for a designated sharpshooter, too, since no one really filled the void left by Kevin Huerter. The Hawks fielded a good offense (seventh in efficiency) despite struggling from three (26th in makes, 21st in percentage). Give them a fire-baller like Hield, a career supplier of 3.1 threes a night on 40.2 percent shooting, and this attack could jump from good to great.
Minnesota Gives Up on Rudy Gobert
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Dallas Mavericks receive: Rudy Gobert
Minnesota Timberwolves receive: Tim Hardaway Jr., Dāvis Bertāns and 2027 first-round pick (top-three-protected)
The Timberwolves would wear a carton's worth of eggs on their face if they turned around and traded Rudy Gobert just one offseason after paying a cartoonish amount to get him, and a deal still might be worth it.
That's how disastrous his first go-round in the Gopher State has been.
His stat line tanked to levels it hadn't been in years. His 11.6 rebounds and 65.9 field-goal percentage were his worst marks since 2017-18. His 13.4 points were his fewest 2015-16. He failed to average two blocks (1.4) for the first time since his rookie season.
More damning than his individual numbers, though, was his overall lack of impact. The Timberwolves were basically the same team with him (plus-0.4 points per 100 possessions) as they were without (plus-0.1). The defense barely improved (10th in efficiency, up from 13th), while the offense fell off a cliff (23rd, down from seventh).
Now, there's a good chance Minnesota wants to give this group more time or simply thinks it can't make a move now with all the damage Gobert has done to his trade value. Still, the Wolves could cut their losses, get out from underneath his colossal contract and hope to see some addition by subtraction.
As for the actual additions in this deal, the first-round pick is the obvious prize, but Tim Hardaway Jr. is at least playable as a shooting specialist. Dāvis Bertāns theoretically fits the same role, but his defense is so atrocious that he would be in this deal strictly for money-matching purposes.
The Mavericks, meanwhile, are running low on options to construct a contender around Luka Dončić. They could be desperate enough to take a flier on Gobert, especially if the cost is one rotation player and a single future first. Dallas will need defensive protection if it brings back Kyrie Irving, and Gobert could feast on easy scoring chances created by Dončić and Irving.
Kyle Lowry Looks to Rebound Away from Miami
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Los Angeles Clippers receive: Kyle Lowry
Miami Heat receive: Marcus Morris Sr., Robert Covington and 2023 second-round pick
It's sort of fitting that Kyle Lowry's best game of the season (by a healthy margin) was one that basically didn't count for Miami. During the Heat's loss to the Atlanta Hawks in the 7-8 game of the play-in tournament, the veteran floor general was unstoppable. He netted a season-high 33 points on 11-of-16 shooting (6-of-9 from three) and dished five assists without a turnover in 33 minutes.
Miami, of course, lost that contest, but it recovered to snag the eighth seed with a win over the Chicago Bulls. In that game, Lowry was quiet—five points on five shots, one assist in 20 minutes—as he has been for much of this season.
He had some injury issues, but those weren't the source of his disappointment. Instead, it was his declining production that actually robbed him of his starting spot down the stretch. You have to travel back over a decade to find the last time he left such a small imprint on the stat sheet with per-game averages of just 11.2 points and 5.1 assists and a 40.4/34.5/85.9 shooting slash.
Lowry, by the way, pocketed $28.3 million this season, and he'll make even more during the next one. If the Heat are going to build a title team during what's left of Jimmy Butler's prime, they have to turn Lowry's salary spot into something more helpful. How about two rotation-caliber forwards and a second-round pick?
Miami needs more two-way players up front, and both Marcus Morris Sr. and Robert Covington could fit the bill. They were squeezed for minutes in L.A., but that says more about the Clippers' depth than anything. Each is a disruptive defender and at least a serviceable shooter from range. Morris even brings a pinch of shot creation. They both have the requisite toughness to thrive with this culture-obsessed organization.
As for L.A., Lowry caught this club's attention before, and he could still be on the radar, especially if the Clippers move on from Russell Westbrook this summer. L.A. might want more stability at that spot than the dynamic-but-erratic Westbrook can provide, and Lowry could thrive with more scoring help around him.
Ben Simmons Gets a Fresh Start
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Portland Trail Blazers receive: Ben Simmons, Cam Thomas, Royce O'Neale, Patty Mills, Day'Ron Sharpe, 2025 first-round pick (via PHO), 2027 first-round pick (via PHO) and 2029 first-round pick
Brooklyn Nets receive: Damian Lillard and Jusuf Nurkić
Ben Simmons was an All-Star in 2020-21. That feels like a lifetime ago.
He has battled knee and back injuries for much of the past two seasons, but he made it on the floor 42 times during this campaign and looked lost when he did. He hesitated to even look at the basket and wound up attempting just 5.6 field goals per game, fifth-fewest among the 169 players who averaged 25-plus minutes.
He shot a disastrous 25-of-57 at the line (43.9). His turnover percentage, which had never previously been above 20.4, spiked to 27.2. His 13.4 player efficiency rating landed way behind his previous low of 18.3; same went for his win shares per 48 minutes (.097, was 0.146).
He looks like someone in need of a total reset. The same could be said of the Portland Trail Blazers, who are ostensibly trying to win big with 32-year-old Damian Lillard but just tanked their way to a second consecutive lottery appearance.
Maybe Simmons and the Blazers are right for each other—if Brooklyn provides sufficient compensation, of course. The Nets would be wise trying to package Simmons in a blockbuster deal, as his sizable salary would be much easier to stomach if packaged with multiple draft picks and prospects.
Portland, a team lacking obvious direction at the moment, would exit this swap with a readymade rebuilding kit in hand. Cam Thomas has shown high-level flashes of shot-making. Day'Ron Sharpe isn't two years removed from being a first-round pick. The incoming future firsts are all coming from clubs with uncertain long-term outlooks. Royce O'Neale might fetch a pick in a separate swap, too. Maybe Patty Mills could convince someone to part with a second-rounder if he catches fire early next season.
And who knows, maybe the Blazers can help Simmons get back to being the player he was. They clearly can give him all the time he needs to get his body right. And don't forget, he is still only 26 years old. He could be a devastating weapon in the open court sprinting alongside Anfernee Simons and Shaedon Sharpe.
The Nets, who can't really build with so many of their picks belonging to the Houston Rockets, would instead try re-entering the championship race with Lillard, Mikal Bridges, Nic Claxton and a deep collection of role players. Even Jusuf Nurkić—whom Portland should want to unload the second it pivots into a rebuild—would scratch an itch for a backup big man.
This could be the rare win-win-win exchange with the Blazers, the Nets and Simmons himself all getting something good out of this swap.
Statistics courtesy of Basketball Reference and NBA.com.
Zach Buckley covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter, @ZachBuckleyNBA.
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