NFL Draft 2023: Highlighting Riskiest Mid-1st-Round Picks in Latest Expert Mocks

Texas Longhorns product Bijan Robinson is looking to become just the fourth running back to be chosen in the first round of the NFL draft since 2020.

Robinson himself is a strong ball-carrier and one that should be coveted by many teams in the middle of the first round on April 27.

But the value of the running back position in the draft has dropped in recent years, as we saw in 2022 when Breece Hall was the first running back chosen with the 36th overall pick.

The three previous first-round tailbacks delivered mixed results early on in their NFL careers.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire was cycled out of the Kansas City Chiefs rotation, Najee Harris found instant success with the Pittsburgh Steelers and Travis Etienne played well in 2022 after missing his entire rookie season with an injury.

Teams could be more willing to wait on taking a running backs because plenty of starting-caliber running backs, like Jonathan Taylor, Kenneth Walker III and Rhamondre Stevenson, have been taken in the second round and beyond in the last three years.

Robinson is far from the only player with question marks in the 2023 draft class. Injuries will play a larger role with other potential mid-first-round selections and that could cause those players to drop further than expected in the draft.

Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas

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AUSTIN, TEXAS - NOVEMBER 25: Bijan Robinson #5 of the Texas Longhorns runs the ball in the fourth quarter defended by Devin Lemear #20 of the Baylor Bears at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium on November 25, 2022 in Austin, Texas. (Photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images)

How early is too early to take a running back?

That's the conundrum that NFL franchises face when evaluating whether or not they should choose Robinson in the first round.

There is nothing wrong with the prospect himself. Robinson ran for 1,580 yards last season and had consecutive 1,000-yard campaigns at Texas.

The value of the running back position, where players fade out faster than other spots on the field, is what comes into play with Robinson.

The Ringer's Danny Kelly projected Robinson would land at No. 20 with the Seattle Seahawks, and he noted what that pick might represent.

"Analytically-minded Seahawks fans would lose their collective minds if Seattle makes this pick, but head coach Pete Carroll and general manager John Schneider have long thumbed their noses at convention," Kelly wrote.

ESPN.com's Mel Kiper Jr. had the Detroit Lions coming away from the 18th pick with Robinson in his latest mock draft. Kiper was concerned about Robinson's potential fit within the current NFL rosters.

"People keep telling me Robinson won't last into the 20s. He's that good. It's just really tough to find the perfect landing spot for him because teams finally understand the value of running backs in Round 1," Kiper wrote.

Robinson would be a smarter draft pick for Detroit than Seattle because the Lions could let D'Andre Swift walk in free agency next offseason. Seattle just found a second-round gem in Walker in 2022.

The Philadelphia Eagles could be in the mix for Robinson at No. 10 because they lost Miles Sanders in free agency. They have to figure out if they can fill other needs, like cornerback and offensive line, later in the draft if they select a running back that high.

One team should take Robinson in the first round, but he may drop below the 15th pick if franchises feel that other needs outweigh the selection and if the position is not valued as much.

The 2020 draft showed us that teams who are patient at running back can find success. Taylor, Swift, J.K. Dobbins, A.J. Dillon and Cam Akers were all chosen in the second round.

However, the Steelers' selection of Harris in 2021 proved it can still be worth taking a running back in the first round. Harris has been one of the best running backs in the league over the last two seasons.

Robinson's fate will likely come down to a philosophical battle inside draft rooms, and unfortunately there is not much he can do about the value of his position in the NFL.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State

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PASADENA, CALIFORNIA - JANUARY 01: Jaxon Smith-Njigba #11 of the Ohio State Buckeyes looks to the bench during a 48-45 win over the Utah Utes at Rose Bowl on January 01, 2022 in Pasadena, California. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)

Jaxon Smith-Njigba was one of the most explosive wide receivers in college football in 2021.

The Ohio State product had 1,606 receiving yards on 95 catches in his breakout campaign.

He was unable to follow that up with another tremendous season because of a hamstring injury last year. He was not on the field for the majority of the Buckeyes' run to the College Football Playoff.

Smith-Njigba said he was 100 percent back in March during an interview with Cleveland.com's Nathan Baird.

NFL teams second-guess themselves a lot during the draft process, and they will likely overanalyze how big of an effect Smith-Njigba's injury had on his draft stock.

Coaches and general managers will probably get a second or third opinion to confirm that he is 100 percent and will not miss any time during his rookie season.

Kiper projected Smith-Njigba would join his college teammate C.J. Stroud with the Houston Texans with the 12th pick. NFL.com's Charles Davis also has the Texans landing Smith-Njigba to partner with his signal-caller from Ohio State.

That would be the wise move for the Texans if they land Stroud at No. 2 or even if Bryce Young is the quarterback they take in that slot.

Smith-Njigba's spot as the No. 1 wide receiver on draft boards will come down to final examinations of his health or if a player like Zay Flowers or Jordan Addison makes a leap after in-house meetings with certain teams.

Hendon Hooker, QB, Tennessee

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KNOXVILLE, TENNESSEE - NOVEMBER 12: Hendon Hooker #5 of the Tennessee Volunteers looks to throw before the game against the Missouri Tigers at Neyland Stadium on November 12, 2022 in Knoxville, Tennessee. (Photo by Donald Page/Getty Images)

One of the most fascinating storylines that could develop on draft night is whether a quarterback is chosen in the mid-to-late first round by a team already there or via a trade.

Davis predicted that the Baltimore Ravens would land Tennessee quarterback Hendon Hooker with the No. 22 overall pick.

"Eric DeCosta recently told us all that Baltimore could very well select a QB in this year's draft. I'm taking the general manager at his word, as the Ravens hedge their bets with the uncertainty surrounding Lamar Jackson," Davis wrote.

Kiper projected Hooker to go closer to the end of the first round at No. 30, with Seattle trading up to take him.

"There's some buzz about Hooker rising into the first round, and this could be the perfect landing spot," Kiper wrote.

Hooker is coming off an ACL tear that he suffered in November during Tennessee's rise into the Top 10 of the polls.

Hooker threw for 3,135 yards, 27 touchdowns and only two interceptions in 11 games in 2022. He had 2,945 passing yards, 31 touchdowns and three picks in 2021.

Of course, teams will be concerned about taking a quarterback in the middle of recovery from an ACL injury. Hooker likely will not start in Week 1 of the 2023 NFL season because of that.

Where Hooker lands in the first round would also affect his status to start at any part of the 2023 season.

Baltimore could be in a spot to take a quarterback depending on what happens with the Lamar Jackson situation in the next two weeks.

The quarterback draft approach is the exact opposite from running back right now, as teams will take a player above his draft grade to secure a potential star for the future.

Hooker should benefit from the quarterback gold rush in some capacity, and that could result in a mid-round selection on the first night of the draft, but it may be a while until we see him on an NFL field.