Re-Grading Rudy Gobert Trade Ahead of Minnesota Timberwolves' 2023 NBA Playoffs

Few trades in NBA history were pilloried as thoroughly as the one the Minnesota Timberwolves made to land Rudy Gobert.

In the immediate aftermath, ESPN's Kevin Pelton gave the Wolves a D for the move. CBS Sports' Sam Quinn did the same. On Twitter, The Ringer's Bill Simmons wondered "if Minnesota just made the most inexplicable NBA overpay trade of all time."

Just over nine months later, the Timberwolves are 43-41 (if you count their play-in games) and fresh off a 120-95 blowout win over the Oklahoma City Thunder that officially put them in the playoffs and set up a date with the top-seeded Denver Nuggets.

But that may not be enough to change the report card.

This season, Gobert lost a three-year streak of being named an All-Star, the team traded for Mike Conley to help integrate the big man (something that actually seemed to work), Gobert punched teammate Kyle Anderson during the regular-season finale (something Anderson says is behind him) and Walker Kessler (who was sent to the Utah Jazz for Gobert) led all rookies in estimated wins.

And of course, he wasn't all Minnesota gave up for its starting center.

In his first big move after taking over the team, former Nuggets executive Tim Connelly unloaded his new franchise's trove of assets for Gobert in July.

The Timberwolves sent Malik Beasley, Patrick Beverley, Jarred Vanderbilt, Leandro Bolmaro, No. 22 pick Walker Kessler and four first-round picks to the Jazz. The last of those first-rounders, in 2029, is top-five protected. They also sent a 2026 pick swap.

Even now, reading that causes sticker shock, especially in the wake of Kessler finishing above Gobert on the aforementioned leaderboard for estimated wins (the cumulative version of Dunks and Threes' estimated plus/minus, one of the most trusted catch-all metrics in basketball).

Trading the two straight-up isn't something that would make sense for many teams, given Gobert's contract (which runs through 2025-26 and will pay him $46.7 million if he picks up the player option for that season) and Kessler's age (22 in July). Including the rest of the assets makes it almost unthinkable.

Utah wound up waiving Bolmaro, but it turned Beverley into Talen Horton-Tucker, who averaged 18.2 points, 6.0 assists and 5.1 rebounds after entering the starting lineup for his last 19 games. Beasley and Vanderbilt went to the Los Angeles Lakers as part of a deal that landed the Jazz another first-round pick.

Meanwhile, the Timberwolves got 13.4 points, 11.6 rebounds and 1.4 blocks per game from their new big man (Gobert's lowest average since his rookie season in 2013-14). They got serious questions about the fit between Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns. They got Gobert's straight right to Anderson's chest. And they had to claw through the play-in tournament to make the postseason.

More importantly, assuming it won't move KAT or conjure up some taker for Gobert's contract out of thin air, Minnesota doesn't really have any moves to make. The assets are spent. And this ill-fitting core seems largely locked in place.

In October, Anthony Edwards told The Athletic's Jon Krawczynski, "The smaller we go, the better it is for me."

And with a season-long sample size in place, it looks like Ant may have been right. Minnesota was plus-1.4 points per 100 possessions when he and Gobert shared the floor. It was plus-2.7 when Edwards played without Gobert. His true shooting percentage was slightly better without the big man too.

And while a calf injury to Towns limited the amount of time he and Gobert played together, the eye test wasn't great there either.

One of KAT's biggest strengths is his ability to shoot from the outside, which can pull opposing centers out of the paint and widen driving lanes for Edwards. With Gobert on the block, or even in the dunker's spot on the baseline, that advantage is pretty much wiped out.

At least it was for much of the season.

There were moments, however fleeting, when you could see how that combo might work. And it probably depends a lot on how much of a playmaker Towns can be.

In the second half of Friday's win, he ran a 4-5 pick-and-roll with Gobert that led to a nifty on-the-run lob to Gobert in tight space.

This season, Towns has thrown more assists to Gobert than he has to any other teammate.

On the other hand, in one of the team's rare opportunities to play a game with Towns and without Gobert (opportunity may be the wrong word here, given Gobert's suspension for punching Anderson), the Timberwolves were minus-24 in the 12 minutes KAT sat during an overtime loss to the Lakers in the first play-in game.

Just having another big body (Naz Reid is out with a wrist injury) available for the non-Towns minutes would've helped.

But hoping for more point forward play from Towns and counting on Gobert to beat reserves already feels a bit like grasping at straws, especially when we're talking about a 30-year-old who's set to make over $40 million in each of the next three seasons.

Ideally, a player making max money lifts everyone around him. When he was with the Jazz, that's exactly what Gobert did. He was the game's best back-line defensive insurance policy. He was a willing screener and pulled opposing defenders into the paint with hard rolls to the rim. He averaged double figures with hyper-efficiency and took hardly any usage from the perimeter players.

If we're going back to grading, Gobert would've earned A's for all of the above over the last several seasons. And while he's still trying to check all those boxes, he might get more of a B in each. That's natural, given his age and the fact that he's no longer on a roster that was tailored to fit his game.

But for a player who can't shoot, create his own shot (with the exception of offensive rebounds, which is an underappreciated form of playmaking) or create for others, even slight regression in those areas can devastate overall impact.

So, even though Minnesota made the playoffs with its new center, it's hard to give it anything better than the D that Pelton and Quinn gave. In fact, with all the information we now have on Kessler and the additional assets Utah secured for Beverley, Beasley and Vanderbilt, the re-grade for the Timberwolves is probably an F.

This grading period isn't over, though.

We're in that moment of the semester when your teacher or professor takes pity on you and offers an extra-credit assignment. If Minnesota aces that by giving the Nuggets a good series and carries a little momentum into the offseason, there's still a chance to move in the right direction.

But, my goodness, scroll up and read that trade package again. It's bonkers. And barring a title during Gobert's time with the Wolves, it's hard to imagine the deal being worth all that.

---

Statistics via Basketball Reference, NBA.com, PBP Stats, Dunks and Threes, Cleaning the Glass unless otherwise noted.