2012 NFL Mock Draft: 4 Bold Predictions for First-Round Picks
Now that the 2011 NFL regular season has ended and most of the 2012 draft order is set, we can focus more on where the top college prospects will land and how they'll perform next fall.
Not to mention, the BCS games have yet to commence, and the expected top picks have another game to make a case.
All that said, here are the 2012 predictions for four of college football's top NFL prospects.
Andrew Luck: QB, Stanford (Indianapolis Colts)
1 of 4Provided that Andrew Luck ends up as the starting QB for the 2012 Indianapolis Colts, he will be subject to comparison to Cam Newton's rookie season.
And based on the Colts' 2012 schedule, the odds are favorable for Luck to have a good season.
Obviously, there are the six divisional games against Tennessee, Jacksonville and Houston. Additionally, Indy has to play the entire AFC East and NFC North, the Chiefs from the AFC West and the Browns from the AFC North.
With a solid receiving corps in play as well as an offensive line, Luck has the odds in his favor.
The weakness of Jacksonville, Tennessee, the entire NFC North and most of the AFC East is in defending the pass. And although they rank high against the pass, Cleveland is susceptible because they allow a lot of rushing yards.
While at Stanford, Luck has thrown for over 3,000 yards each of the last two seasons and has combined for 67 TDs to just 17 picks, including a 70.35 completion percentage.
Against some vulnerable pass defenses and with the ability to setup the pass via the ground game, Andrew Luck's football IQ puts him in the Rookie of the Year race.
Prediction: 3,400 passing yards, 20 TDs, 19 INTs, 59.5 completion percentage
Justin Blackmon: WR, Oklahoma State (St. Louis Rams)
2 of 4Whether they trade down or draft him slightly high, the St. Louis Rams desperately need a stud WR like Oklahoma State's Justin Blackmon.
He's the focal point of the Cowboys' offense and still accounted for over 3,100 receiving yards the past two seasons. Additionally, he scored 36 TDs (one by rushing) and caught 224 passes combined between 2010 and 2011 (bowl game still yet to play).
As for the 2012 NFL season, the Rams have to play the entire AFC East and NFC North, as well as the Washington Redskins and Tampa Bay Buccaneers in addition to the NFC West games.
So, it's an eerily similar schedule in comparison to the Colts which translated namely into weak pass defenses. Now, St. Louis is no offense to brag about. However, with Blackmon opposite Brandon Lloyd, that will help setup the ground game and vice versa.
Plus, chances are the defense still allows tons of yards and points. Therefore, St. Louis will have no option other than to consistently throw the ball in the second half.
If you're Justin Blackmon, it's a similar situation as Oklahoma State, except the Rams need to throw the ball as opposed to wanting to throw the ball. Sam Bradford is a strong-armed QB with no legit WRs, so he and Blackmon will complement one another quite well.
Prediction: 1,000 Receiving Yards, 75 Receptions, six TDs
Robert Griffin III: QB, Baylor (Washington Redskins)
3 of 4He accounted for almost 5,000 total yards (almost 4,300 passing), 47 total TDs (37 passing) and never threw more than eight picks in one season for the Baylor Bears.
Robert Griffin III is the exact guy the Washington Redskins need under center. He's used to playing without much help. However, the Redskins at least provide him with a solid defense and experienced WRs.
Whether they trade up to get him or risk waiting, Washington needs RG3 under center in 2012.
With some cakewalk pass defenses on the schedule, a QB that can scramble when needed while also being deadly accurate can get the 'Skins in the playoff race early.
For the season, Washington has to play the entire AFC North (all solid against the pass), the entire NFC South (most are vulnerable), as well as the St. Louis Rams and Minnesota Vikings on top of the divisional games.
Griffin will shred the weak pass defenses of Minnesota, St. Louie, the NFC South and divisional foes, the Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants.
And if Washington can get him a young stud WR in the mid rounds of the draft, that'll only increase his odds. Let's put it this way. With one WR that he made a solid NFL prospect (Kendall Wright), RG3 had a 72.4 completion percentage with the game in his hands every week.
Prediction: 3,800 Passing Yards, 24 TDs, 18 INTs, 63.5 Completion Percentage
Morris Claiborne: CB, LSU (Cleveland Browns)
4 of 4With the No. 4 overall pick, the Cleveland Browns can go a few different ways. If Oklahoma State's Justin Blackmon is available (although unlikely), he can help improve the passing offense.
Unfortunately for Cleveland, there are no insanely dominant defensive linemen or linebackers worth a Top-5 overall pick.
So, unless Cleveland decides to trade down, expect them to take LSU's Morris Claiborne and pair him opposite Joe Haden. In turn, this creates one of the better young CB tandems in the NFL.
And it's a good pick because although the Browns rank high against the pass, Claiborne is great for run support and will take pressure off the linebackers having to worry about open WRs across the middle.
As for their 2012 season, Cleveland plays the entire AFC West, NFC East, the Buffalo Bills, Indianapolis Colts and, obviously, the AFC North.
Being that Morris is a rookie and Haden has been established as one of the league's better corners, Claiborne will be tested. The stellar pass offenses of the NFC East will attack him as will teams like the San Diego Chargers.
Against weaker pass offenses, though, such as Denver, Oakland and Kansas City, Claiborne will flourish. It's not the most favorable schedule for a rookie CB. However, Morris is from LSU, so he has the same potential as Arizona's Patrick Peterson.
Prediction: 50 Tackles, Five INTs, 15 Pass Break-Ups, One Forced Fumble
2012 First-Round NFL Mock Draft
1. Indianapolis Colts: Andrew Luck, QB (Stanford) | 17. Cincinnati (From OAK): Riley Reiff, OT (Iowa) |
2. St. Louis Rams: Justin Blackmon, WR (Oklahoma State) | 18. San Diego Chargers: Courtney Upshaw, LB (Alabama) |
3. Minnesota Vikings: Matt Kalil, OT (USC) | 19. Chicago Bears: Nick Toon, WR (Wisconsin) |
4. Cleveland Browns: Morris Claiborne, CB (LSU) | 20. Tennessee Titans: Alshon Jeffery, WR (South Carolina) |
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Trent Richardson, RB (Alabama) | 21. Cincinnati Bengals: Jayron Hosley, CB (Virginia Tech) |
6. Washington Redskins: Robert Griffin, QB (Baylor) | 22. Detroit Lions: Zach Brown, LB (UNC) |
7. Jacksonville Jaguars: Michael Floyd, WR (Notre Dame) | 23. Cleveland (From ATL): Vontaze Burfict, LB (ASU) |
8. Miami Dolphins: Kendall Wright, WR (Baylor) | 24. Denver Broncos: Stephon Gilmore, CB (South Carolina) |
9. Carolina Panthers: Dre Kirkpatrick, CB (Alabama) | 25. New York Giants: Jonathan Martin, OT (Stanford) |
10. Buffalo Bills: Alfonzo Dennard, CB (Nebraska) | 26. Houston Texans: Devon Still, DT (Penn State) |
11. Kansas City Chiefs: David DeCastro, G (Stanford) | 27. San Francisco 49ers: Mark Barron, S (Alabama) |
12. Seattle Seahawks: Quinton Coples, DE (UNC) | 28. Baltimore Ravens: Dont'a Hightower, LB (Alabama) |
13. Arizona Cardinals: Cordy Glenn, G (Georgia) | 29. Pittsburgh Steelers: Mike Adams, OT (Ohio State) |
14. Dallas Cowboys: Chase Minnifield, CB (UVA) | 30. New England Patriots (From NO): Janoris Jenkins, CB (North Alabama) |
15. Philadelphia Eagles: Luke Kuechly, LB (Boston College) | 31. New England Patriots: Cam Johnson, DE (UVA) |
16. New York Jets: Brandon Thompson, DE (Clemson) | 32. Green Bay Packers: Melvin Ingram, DE (South Carolina) |
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