7-Seed Lakers Survive Play-In with Defense, AD, but Will Need More Against Grizzlies

On more than one occasion, it felt like LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers had doomed themselves to a single-elimination play-in game later this week, but they overcame a 15-point second-half deficit to beat the Minnesota Timberwolves on Tuesday.

The play-in victory secured the seventh seed and a first-round matchup with the Memphis Grizzlies for L.A., despite the Lakers facing a less-than-20-percent win probability for most of the last two quarters against Minnesota.

And while it may be easy to dismiss this win—they got down big to an inferior seed missing two starters and another rotation player—the result probably isn't surprising for anyone who's paid close attention to the Lakers since the trade deadline.

Over that stretch, L.A. is third in the league in points allowed per 100 possessions. On Tuesday, they gave up just 102 to a Timberwolves team that averaged 115.8 per night in the regular season. They held Anthony Edwards to a dismal 3-of-17 shooting, which pulled the entire Wolves team down to 43.4 percent for the night.

Anthony Davis was plus-nine and had 24 points, 15 rebounds, four assists, three blocks and two steals. And like the defense, a big night from AD just felt like another continuation of a trend. Since the deadline, he's plus-159, a mark that ranks eighth over that span.

He was the only starter in the black for Tuesday's plus-minus column, but there's reason to be excited about that lineup too. After spending much of the season trying to make Russell Westbrook fit as a sixth man, a flurry of moves in January and February shook up the roster and led to a new starting five of D'Angelo Russell, Austin Reaves, LeBron, Jarred Vanderbilt and AD.

Injuries delayed that group's sustained deployment, but it finished the season as the Lakers' second-best lineup by total plus-minus, despite only appearing in seven games. L.A. was plus-37 in the measly 77 minutes all five were on the floor.

But on Tuesday, it wasn't quite as rosy as all those numbers. Russell went 1-of-9 from the field and 0-of-4 from three. After averaging 18.0 points on 9.5 field-goal attempts over his last 21 regular-season games, Reaves was 4-of-13 against the Wolves.

And that lineup depends an awful lot on those two hitting jumpers, since LeBron, Vanderbilt and Davis combined to make just 31.2 percent of their three-point attempts this season. With the spotlight of the play-in game on them, shots weren't falling and the offense felt mighty cramped for much of the game.

Against Minnesota, the whole team was 21-of-33 in the restricted area and 17-of-59 (28.8 percent) everywhere else.

Fortunately, Rui Hachimura (2-of-5 from deep) and Dennis Schröder (5-of-12 from the field and 3-of-4 from three) bailed them out. The latter hit what could've been a game-winner at the end of the fourth quarter had AD not fouled Mike Conley on a last-second attempt.

But those two aren't the most reliable floor spacers either. Hachimura shot 31.9 percent from three this season, while Russell has been just above average over the course of his career.

And if a lack of shooting shrinks the floor in the first round, it'll be harder to overcome against the Memphis Grizzlies.

Even in the post-deadline span referenced earlier, L.A. was a middle-of-the-pack 15th in points scored per 100 possessions, and Memphis finished third in the league in season-long defensive rating.

Of course, Steven Adams not being available to battle Davis and Vanderbilt inside is a big plus for the Lakers, but Xavier Tillman has been solid in his absence, and presumed Defensive Player of the Year Jaren Jackson Jr. will be in action. Dillon Brooks and Desmond Bane will be more than happy to hound LeBron and Reaves too.

And in that matchup, the greater concern might be on the other end. When healthy, Davis provides All-Defense-level deterrence inside, but the Lakers don't have anyone who'll consistently impede Ja Morant's path to the paint (most teams don't). With Russell and Schröder potentially at the point of attack, Morant should be able to apply almost constant pressure on Davis. And with reliable kick-out options like Bane, JJJ, Tyus Jones and Luke Kennard, that'll probably lead to plenty of catch-and-shoot opportunities.

There's a reason Memphis finished second and the Lakers had to play an extra game to secure their playoff spot, and the early betting odds reinforce that. According to FanDuel, the Grizzlies are minus-130 to win the series.

If L.A. shoots like it did on Tuesday, even that number might seem generous in hindsight.

But the Lakers have something the Grizzlies don't. Just three years ago, LeBron and AD won a title together. And while L.A.'s front office confusingly spent the next couple of seasons tearing at the fabric of what made that team so good, it made an encouraging about-face this season.

Turning Westbrook, Patrick Beverley, Thomas Bryant, Kendrick Nunn and others into Hachimura, Vanderbilt, Russell and Malik Beasley instantly made this supporting cast make more sense around LeBron and AD, who've always played better with decent floor spacing.

Vanderbilt allows AD to dominate as a 5 on offense while sparing him much of the dirty work on both ends. Russell may be streaky, but he certainly commands more respect as a shooter from defenses than Russ or Beverley did. Even Beasley can swing a quarter here or there with a hot streak. And Hachimura gives the team some positionless optionality it didn't have with Nunn.

All of that may be tougher to bring to the surface in a series against Memphis than it was in the regular season, but they've at least been good enough to make this a real conversation.

And if they can keep things just close enough for LeBron and AD's championship experience to take over in the clutch, at least four more wins aren't out of the question.