2023 NBA Playoff Preview and Full Bracket Predictions
The best part of the NBA season is finally here.
With all eight seeds now locked in for both conferences following the play-in tournament, the race to the 2023 title can begin.
The field consists of a variety of previous title winners (LeBron James' Los Angeles Lakers, Stephen Curry's Golden State Warriors, Giannis Antetokounmpo's Milwaukee Bucks); stars trying to win their first rings (Jayson Tatum's Boston Celtics, Joel Embiid's Philadelphia 76ers, Nikola Jokić's Denver Nuggets); and former champs looking to win for the first time in a new location (Kevin Durant's Phoenix Suns, Kawhi Leonard's Los Angeles Clippers).
While some of the first-round series in the East may be short-lived, the West is wide-open, especially with Leonard, Curry and James all playing on teams in the bottom half of the bracket.
For this exercise, we're going series by series all the way to the NBA Finals, looking at key matchups and picking winners along the way.
At the end, a former champion will rise again as one of the game's biggest stars will only add to his legacy.
East Quarterfinals: (4) Cleveland Cavaliers vs. (5) New York Knicks
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This should be one of the most entertaining first-round series, as Donovan Mitchell and Jalen Brunson face off for the second consecutive year (albeit in new homes).
Despite their modest seedings, these have been two of the better teams in the NBA, with Cleveland finishing second overall in net rating this year (plus-5.6) while New York wasn't far behind at seventh (plus-2.8).
There are some health concerns here to monitor as well, as Julius Randle (ankle) and Isaac Okoro (knee soreness) have status' up in the air right now. Even if both are limited, there's still plenty of star power to go around.
New York's offense (tied for third this season with a 117.0 rating) will be tested against Cleveland's No. 1-ranked defense (109.9 rating), one that may slip if Okoro is out, however.
Key Matchup: Donovan Mitchell vs. Jalen Brunson
Brunson got the best of Mitchell last season while a member of the Dallas Mavericks, a series that springboarded him to star status and a career-best season now (24.0 points, 3.5 rebounds, 6.2 assists, 41.6 percent from three).
In a recent Knicks win over the Cavs in Cleveland, Brunson and Mitchell combined for a whopping 90 points, setting us up for some potential fireworks now.
Both players have better supporting casts around them from a year ago as well, as Brunson was leading a Mavs team with an injured Luka Dončić, while Mitchell didn't have someone as offensively talented as Darius Garland next to him.
Expect both to average 30-plus points in the series, one that will go the distance.
Prediction: Cavs in 7.
Cleveland was one of just six teams to win 30 or more games at home this season and don't even need a victory on the road to take the series. Expect some monster performances from Mitchell against his hometown team as well.
East Quarterfinals: (3) Philadelphia 76ers vs. (6) Brooklyn Nets
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One has to feel for the Brooklyn Nets in this matchup.
The remains of a roster that was detonated at the trade deadline slumped to a 13-15 record to finish the season and was thin up front even before sending Markieff Morris away in the Kyrie Irving trade.
This is a terrible matchup for Brooklyn against Joel Embiid, who combined with James Harden put up 57.5 points, 16.0 rebounds and 9.0 assists against the Nets in the regular season.
Brooklyn's only chance may be to let it fly from the outside, as its 13.5 threes per game ranked seventh in the NBA after the trade deadline. This roster is loaded with snipers who will need to get hot fast for this series to have any kind of life.
Key Matchup: Joel Embiid vs. Nic Claxton (and a double)
Claxton is a talented defender and rim protector, but his lean 215-pound frame is a bad match against the 7'0", 280-pound Embiid. Expect Brooklyn to double early and often, leading to an open shooter somewhere on the floor for Philly.
With no Ben Simmons (back), the Nets are extremely small, leading to some potential matchup nightmares.
Prediction: 76ers in 5
Brooklyn is a nice team, but Philly is a powerhouse loaded with playoff-tested veterans and the potential MVP.
The Nets may be able to steal a game, but this series isn't going more than five.
East Quarterfinals: (2) Boston Celtics vs. (7) Atlanta Hawks
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It's possible that we're underrating these Celtics after they fell to the No. 2 seed in the East. Boston still finished the season second overall in offense (117.3 rating) and defense (110.6 rating), leading to an NBA-best plus-6.7 net rating.
This group has already gone through 13 playoff series together over the past five years, including a trip to the NBA Finals last June. Atlanta simply can't match Boston's postseason experience or its depth.
Assuming Marcus Smart can return from a neck injury, the combination of him, Derrick White and Jaylen Brown is the perfect counter for Trae Young and Dejounte Murray.
Key Matchup: Dejounte Murray vs. Jaylen Brown
If Young's recent struggles continue (21.5 points on 38.1 percent shooting overall and 32.7 percent from three over his last 11 regular season games), the Hawks will need to get a big series from Murray to have any sort of a chance.
Brown could see a lot of time on Murray, testing him defensively while also being asked to be a reliable second scorer next to Tatum. For two players on team-friendly deals about to hit unrestricted free agency next summer in search of max contracts for the first time, look for Murray and Brown to both show out.
Prediction: Celtics in 5
Giving the Hawks even a game may be generous here, but Atlanta is deeper and more talented overall than the squad that got bounced in five games last year against the Miami Heat.
Still, these Celtics are better than that Heat team and will make light work of Young and company.
East Quarterfinals: (1) Milwaukee Bucks vs. (8) Miami Heat
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Miami survived the play-in tournament just for the right to get slaughtered by Milwaukee in the first round. While Jimmy Butler has proved his ability to slay the Bucks in the postseason before, the talent disparity between these two rosters is going to become painfully obvious.
The Heat have struggled to generate offense all season, ranking just 25th overall with a 112.3 rating, per NBA.com. This doesn't bode well for Miami when going against Milwaukee's fourth-ranked defense, as the Heat could fail to crack triple digits in the majority of the games this series.
Key Matchup: Khris Middleton vs. Jimmy Butler
All attention will be on shutting down the play of Butler, with Middleton likely taking the first turn against the six-time All-Star.
Butler will need to work against Middleton as well, as the veteran forward has been much better over the second half of the season.
Prediction: Bucks in 5
After struggling to even make the playoffs, Miami's stay in the postseason will be brief.
Milwaukee has a real chance at sweeping this series, as Giannis Antetokounmpo and company will swallow up this offensively-challenged Heat team in five games.
West Quarterfinals: (4) Phoenix Suns vs. (5) Los Angeles Clippers
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This would have had the potential to be the best series of the first round, but Paul George's likely absence swings the needle greatly in favor of the Suns.
According to The Athletic's Law Murray, George is targeting a return in the West semifinals after being out since March 21 with a sprained knee. He has no official timetable for a return.
After battling their own health issues lately, all of the stars in Phoenix are ready to go, which simply makes this an unfair fight. Kawhi Leonard is one of the game's biggest postseason performers of the last decade, but there's no second star on the roster to counter an attack featuring Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, Chris Paul and Deandre Ayton.
Key Matchup: Kevin Durant vs. Kawhi Leonard
The meeting of two superstar forwards with a pair of titles and Finals MVPs each will be incredibly entertaining to watch. It also means one won't make it out of the first round, with both suffering this early of an exit just three total times in 20 combined playoff trips.
Leonard will need to win the individual battle for the Clippers to have a chance here, whereas Durant will face far fewer double teams with Booker and Ayton by his side.
Prediction: Suns in 6
With no George, this could be a quick series. Despite limited time together, the Suns have far more star power to make up for what they may lack in chemistry.
Another injury-riddled Clippers season will come to a disappointing early end.
West Quarterfinals: (3) Sacramento Kings vs. (6) Golden State Warriors
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Despite falling to the sixth seed in the West and going just 11-30 on the road this season, the Warriors are still the betting favorites to win this series and have the fourth-highest odds in the NBA at winning the title, per FanDuel.
Obviously, there's belief that a switch can be flipped, especially with Andrew Wiggins now expected to suit up in Game 1 for the first time since Feb. 13 following a personal issue.
There likely won't be a better home crowd during the entire postseason than the one that will reside in the Golden 1 Center, however, and Sacramento will certainly use this significant homecourt advantage to their favor. Winning the first two games before going to Golden State will be crucial.
Key Matchup: Domantas Sabonis vs. Draymond Green
While Stephen Curry and De'Aaron Fox should provide most of the individual scoring here, the matchup of the two bigs will truly be the one to watch.
Two of the best passing big men in the NBA, both Sabonis and Green will be nightly triple-double threats who can control a game with their ball movement, screening and rebounding alone. Add in Sabonis' three-level scoring and Green's defense and we'll see some terrific basketball being played inside the arc throughout the series.
Prediction: Warriors in 7
Golden State will only need to win one of the four games in Sacramento if it takes care of business at home, which is what we're expecting to happen here. Once Wiggins likely shakes off a bad game or two in his return, his two-way impact will help push the Warriors into the second round.
As good as the Kings are offensively, the Warriors' massive playoff experience advantage will be on full display.
West Quarterfinals: (2) Memphis Grizzlies vs. (7) Los Angeles Lakers
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This matchup feels like two students preparing for the ACT, with one studying consistently all year while the other has only been up at night cramming for the past few weeks.
The Grizzlies have remained at the top of the West all season, while a 2-10 start to the year had the Lakers playing catch up since the beginning. While this would normally mean a convincing series win for Memphis, no Steven Adams (knee) or Brandon Clarke (Achilles) has left the Grizzlies vulnerable up front.
Add in one of the best supporting casts LeBron James has ever had and this has all the makings of a lengthy first-round series.
Key Matchup: Jaren Jackson Jr. vs. Anthony Davis
Jackson is the favorite for Defensive Player of the Year after holding opponents to a stingy 46.9 percent shooting at the rim this season, per NBA.com, and blocking an NBA-best 3.0 shots per game. He'll face one of his biggest tests with Davis, who was recently named Western Conference Player of the Month for March and April after averaging 26.2 points, 12.5 rebounds, 3.1 assists and 1.9 blocks in 18 games.
With Jackson unable to provide as much weak-side help as he focuses his attention on slowing down Davis, Memphis' interior defense could slip.
Prediction: Lakers in 7
The Grizzlies will miss Adams in this series, as he had the third-highest on/off rating on the team this season at plus-8.3, per Basketball Reference. The Lakers' new starting lineup of D'Angelo Russell, Austin Reaves, James, Davis and Jarred Vanderbilt has a net rating of plus-22.2 together, according to Cleaning the Glass, with a bench that can go four-or-five deep as well.
Memphis is still one of the brightest young organizations in the NBA, but it has the unfortunate luck of running into James, Davis and a new-look Lakers team in Round 1.
West Quarterfinals: (1) Denver Nuggets vs. (8) Minnesota Timberwolves
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This 1-8 meeting has some spicy upset potential, as the Timberwolves are better than their seeding ultimately shows.
Minnesota's new core four of Karl-Anthony Towns, Anthony Edwards, Rudy Gobert and Mike Conley Jr. has a net rating of plus-9.4 (95th percentile, per Cleaning the Glass) when all share the floor, with Kyle Anderson serving as the perfect sixth man for this group.
No Jaden McDaniels (hand) is going to hurt the Wolves' defense, especially since he likely would have been tasked with guarding Michael Porter Jr. or Aaron Gordon for most of the series.
Key Matchup: Nikola Jokić vs. Karl-Anthony Towns
The battle of two of the NBA's best bigs will be fun to watch, as both can impact a game with their three-level scoring, rebounding and passing ability.
The Wolves will likely use Gobert on Jokić to begin and end games, although we should still get to see some Jokić-Towns minutes in the second and third quarters.
Prediction: Nuggets in 6
Minnesota is a good team that finished just three games out of the No. 4 seed in the West this season. This series could go the full seven games, especially if Anthony Edwards and Towns put up some eye-popping scoring numbers.
Winning in Denver will be tough, however, and we rarely see No. 1 seeds lose in the first round. The Nuggets survive a tough-fought series here.
East Semifinals: (2) Boston Celtics vs. (3) Philadelphia 76ers
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In a number of promising second-round matchups, Philly vs. Boston may be the best of them all.
The Celtics took three of four from the 76ers this season and might have made it a clean sweep had Jaylen Brown been able to play in a 103-101 loss on April 4.
Still, Joel Embiid could easily swing things back Philly's way, especially since he put up 36.8 points, 11.8 rebounds, 4.3 assists and shot 61.2 percent against Boston in four games this season.
Both teams have elite-level talent, depth and significant collective playoff experience. In what looks like a conference finals match on paper, only one East powerhouse can advance past the second round.
Key Matchup: James Harden vs. Jaylen Brown
Brown's absence was noticeable in the Celtics' lone loss to the Sixers this season, and it remains to be seen if a recent plant-watering accident that led to five stitches in his right hand will affect his game at all this postseason. While his offense will be needed, Brown will likely have to take some turns guarding Harden as well.
Few players will be under more scrutiny this postseason than Harden, who's already racked up his share of playoff meltdowns and owns just a lifetime 42.6 percent shooting mark in 149 postseason contests. He doesn't need to be an elite scorer in this series, but rather a reliable second-to-third option who can set the table for Embiid, Tyrese Maxey and others.
Prediction: Celtics in 6
Boston has home-court advantage in this series and went a sparkling 32-9 at TD Garden this season. The Celtics have also proved they can take a haymaker from Embiid and still find ways to come out on top, which is what we expect to happen here.
Teams as good as the Sixers deserve to make it past the conference semifinals, but this Boston team is a true championship contender that will eventually wear Philly down.
East Semifinals: (1) Milwaukee Bucks vs. (4) Cleveland Cavaliers
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The Cavs and Bucks split their regular-season series, although Giannis Antetokounmpo missed one of Cleveland's two wins.
With Jrue Holiday able to keep at least one of Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland in check, a lot of this series will come down to who can limit paint opportunities the most.
These are two big, athletic, elite defensive frontcourts that will make interior scoring extremely difficult on either end. Milwaukee also holds a significant advantage in postseason experience, as Garland, Evan Mobley, Jarrett Allen, Caris LeVert, Isaac Okoro and Ricky Rubio are either in their first playoff runs or have never made it past the opening round.
Key Matchup: Brook Lopez vs. Jarrett Allen
Lopez and Allen are two of the best rim protectors in the league, even if they may not even be the best overall defenders on their own team.
Still, Lopez (50.2 percent) and Allen (54.1 percent) ranked 2nd and 6th, respectively, in defensive field goal percentage at the rim this season, per NBA.com, and will be anchoring defenses that ranked first (Cavaliers) and fourth (Bucks) in 2022-23.
Prediction: Bucks in 6
Points may be hard to come by in this series, as these are two of the best defensive teams in the entire NBA. As good as Mitchell is, Antetokounmpo is the best player in the series who put up big numbers against this mighty Cavs frontcourt this season (33.0 points, 11.7 rebounds, 6.0 assists, 55.4 percent shooting) in his three games.
The young Cavaliers have had a fine season up to this point, but Milwaukee's experience and top-end talent win out here.
West Semifinals: (6) Golden State Warriors vs. (7) Los Angeles Lakers
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After meeting four straight times in the Finals from 2015-18, LeBron James and Stephen Curry once again face off in a postseason series. Bold prediction: TV ratings will be quite good.
This rare No. 6 vs. No. 7 seed matchup features two proven superstars with eight championships and five Finals MVPs between them, though their supporting casts are great as well.
Don't let the Warriors' 44-38 record fool you. With Andrew Wiggins back, the starting lineup of Curry, Wiggins, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green and Kevon Looney has a net rating of plus-22.1, per Cleaning the Glass, a near equal mark to the new-look Lakers' opening five.
Both James and Curry likely care little about seeding, and a fifth championship ring would move each up to match Kobe Bryant, Magic Johnson, Tim Duncan and others and leave them just one away from Michael Jordan, among others.
Key Matchup: LeBron James vs. Andrew Wiggins
Remember when James wrote his coming home letter to Cleveland, didn't mention the then-rookie Wiggins and then the 2014 No. 1 pick was sent to the Minnesota Timberwolves in the deal for Kevin Love?
Wiggins likely does and should use it as motivation both when guarding James in the series and when facing him in isolation. With Green likely needing to spend most of his time on Anthony Davis, we'll see a lot of James-Wiggins.
Prediction: Warriors in 7
Golden State, despite being a No. 6 seed, actually has home-court advantage in this series. That is a huge win for a team that went 33-8 at home and has a chemistry advantage over the Lakers, who were largely assembled just two months ago.
West Semifinals: (1) Denver Nuggets vs. (4) Phoenix Suns
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After (relatively) easy first-round matchups, the heat gets turned up for the Nuggets and Suns.
Denver's core has more experience together, and the Nuggets went 34-7 at home this season, the second-best mark in the NBA. With home-court advantage, the Nuggets don't even need to win in Phoenix to take the series.
The Suns, though in limited time together, have made the most of their opportunities. When Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, Chris Paul and Deandre Ayton share the floor, Phoenix has a net rating of plus-19.7 (100th percentile), per Cleaning the Glass.
Key Matchup: Jamal Murray vs. Devin Booker
After missing the playoffs last year while recovering from a torn ACL, Murray should be champing at the bit to pick up where he left off in 2020.
The last time we saw Murray in a postseason, he averaged 26.5 points, 4.8 rebounds and 6.6 assists with 50.5/45.3/89.7 percent shooting splits. He and Booker (26.1 points per game in 32 career playoff games) could trade isolation buckets for stretches, even with Durant and Nikola Jokić on the floor.
Prediction: Suns in 7
It's tough to trust the Nuggets, who nearly coughed up the No. 1 seed and went just 12-11 after the All-Star break. Add in a leaky defense that ranked just 15th, per NBA.com, and has to guard elite scorers in Durant and Booker, and the result will be a second-round exit for Denver.
East Finals: (1) Milwaukee Bucks vs. (2) Boston Celtics
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These teams meet for the fourth time in the Giannis Antetokounmpo-Jayson Tatum era, with the Bucks looking for revenge after dropping a seven-game second-round series to the Celtics a year ago.
The difference? After not playing last year because of a sprained MCL, Khris Middleton is back for Milwaukee. He closed the season with averages of 17.0 points, 5.0 rebounds and 5.3 assists and shot 46.2 percent over his final 22 games.
After representing the East for the past two years, the winner of Celtics-Bucks will make it three in a row.
Key Matchup: Giannis Antetokounmpo vs. Jayson Tatum
This is the matchup, as two of the NBA's very best go head-to-head for what projects to be another long series.
Antetokounmpo put up 33.9 points, 14.7 rebounds and 7.1 assists in the last series, while Tatum countered with 27.6 points, 6.3 rebounds and 5.4 assists. Both players have shown the ability to carry their teams to the top of the conference and have plenty of help up and down the rosters.
Prediction: Bucks in 7
Milwaukee nearly knocked off Boston last season without Middleton, and it also has home-court advantage.
Add in Brook Lopez's rim protection, and the Celtics may have to settle for a lot of mid-range and three-point shots, areas from which Tatum can go ice-cold.
This series is going seven games, and this time Antetokounmpo and the healthy Bucks come out on top.
West Finals: (4) Phoenix Suns vs. (6) Golden State Warriors
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Kevin Durant vs. the Warriors is a ratings dream with the 13-time All-Star looking to send home his former team and perhaps put an end to a dynasty he helped create.
There's tons of juicy storylines, as the legacies of Durant, Chris Paul, Stephen Curry and others can be greatly enhanced with a series win and trip to the Finals.
Like with the Bucks-Celtics series in the East, these two teams have represented the West in the Finals in each of the past two seasons and make it three in a row.
Key Matchup: Chris Paul vs. Stephen Curry
There's no shortage of terrific matchups. From Durant vs. Draymond Green to Devin Booker vs. Klay Thompson, these rosters are littered with star power and playoff experience.
Paul vs. Curry is particularly interesting given the history between the two (especially when Paul was a member of the Houston Rockets) and each one's standing in the GOAT point guard conversation. Curry could benefit from yet another series win, but Paul needs it.
Prediction: Warriors in 7
Durant may be the best player on the floor when these two powerhouses square off, but the Warriors have the better team whose core has spent the last decade together.
That experience is bound to matter, especially at the end of close games and since Durant and Booker may still be trying to figure out who takes the last shot.
The Warriors move on after yet another long series, making their seventh Finals appearance in nine years.
NBA Finals: (1) Milwaukee Bucks vs. (6) Golden State Warriors
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The past two NBA champions meet each other in what should be a fantastic Finals.
These teams met twice during the regular season, though just once with a healthy Giannis Antetokounmpo. In that game, the Bucks won by 17. Antetokounmpo scored 30 points and grabbed 12 rebounds in 30 minutes.
It's worth noting that Stephen Curry shot just 36.0 percent from three in these two meetings while Draymond Green chipped in 3.5 points on 23.1 percent shooting, as neither looked like themselves against the tough Bucks defense.
Key Matchups: Giannis Antetokounmpo vs. Draymond Green and Jrue Holiday vs. Stephen Curry
The defensive play of Green against Antetokounmpo and Holiday against Curry will play a major role in this series, as both teams try to cut off the head of the snake.
Golden State may struggle if it tries to go small against a team that can put together a front line of Antetokounmpo, Bobby Portis and Brook Lopez.
Prediction: Bucks in 6
An aging team that had to play three straight seven-game series finally runs out of gas, especially since Milwaukee has home-court advantage.
The Bucks were 32-9 at Fiserv Forum this season, and the Warriors were 11-30 on the road. And Antetokounmpo will want to prove his standing in the NBA pecking order after a likely third-place finish in MVP voting.
Milwaukee wins its second title in three years and kicks off a potential dynasty with Antetokounmpo still just 28 years old.
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