Biggest Challenges Impacting Los Angeles Lakers' NBA Playoff Hopes
On the heels of Wednesday's 125-118 loss to the L.A. Clippers, the Los Angeles Lakers' path to—and ultimate place in—the NBA playoffs remains murky.
Such is life inside the religiously chaotic, incomprehensibly cramped Western Conference.
The Lakers are currently the No. 7 seed and guaranteed at least a spot in the play-in tournament. So, there's that. With a little to loads of help from the Golden State Warriors and New Orleans Pelicans, they could also jump to sixth and avoid the play-in altogether.
Mathematically speaking, scrapping and clawing into fifth place remains in play for the Lakers. Logistically speaking, not so much. With games remaining against the locked-into-fourth-place Phoenix Suns and not-actively-trying-to-win Utah Jazz, the Lakers will, in all likelihood, land anywhere from ninth to sixth. That's the extent of clarity in the middle of the West.
Yet in the race to figure out their place within the postseason bracket, it's easy to forget that making it is only part of the battle. The Lakers actually have to do something if and when they get there.
Causing a scene in the playoffs will come down to a bunch of different factors. Wednesday's loss to the Clippers reinforced as much. Many of the Lakers' most important have-tos are smack-you-in-the-face obvious. LeBron James can't score three points in the first half amid a team-wide battle with functional indifference. Go figure.
This space isn't for the givens. It's for the aggregate X-factors—macro issues and questions that will directly impact the Lakers' play-in and playoff stocks.
Head Coach Darvin Ham's Rotations/The Lakers Bench
A brief stroll down Lakers Twitter Lane will reveal a fanbase that wasn't at all happy with Ham's rotations against the Clippers:
Many of the complaints echoed qualms that have previously bubbled to the surface. Sticking too long with Troy Brown Jr. Leaning too far into size. Not enough Malik Beasley.
Does the Rui Hachimura-Wenyen Gabriel frontcourt actually have to be a thing? Did they really dress Mo Bamba just to keep not playing him? How much Dennis Schröder is too much Dennis Schröder?
Why were there any stretches, whatsoever, in which both LeBron and Anthony Davis were on the bench?
In Ham's defense, he is to some extent a victim of the options at his disposal. And the team has been banged up since the trade deadline, dramatically limiting his flexibility.
Rolling out a starting five of LeBron, AD, D'Angelo Russell, Austin Reaves and Jarrett Vanderbilt is a no-brainer—and by far and away the team's most important lineup. Every decision after that gets tougher.
Los Angeles' bench isn't stocked with certainties. Beasley comes closest, and even his defining skill set, outside marksmanship, has wavered. His long-range volume remains important, but he's barely canning 35 percent of his triples since arriving, with shooting splits that explode one night only to implode on another.
Figuring out the rotation isn't a mindless endeavor. Ham has to balance deploying guys who fit the in-your-face scrambling ethos the Lakers defense has adopted with the need for both offensive and top-of-the-roster firepower.
Still, this personnel pickle isn't hopeless. The Lakers' preferred starting five is a plus-29 through 53 minutes together. And they were a plus-10 against the Clippers. Ham can pull just about any one of them for Beasley to begin the substitution patterns and commit to leaving two of LeBron, DLo and AD on the floor at all times.
That, at the bare minimum, is a good place to start—as is staggering or eliminating the minutes in which Brown, Gabriel and Hachimura all log together.
Three-Point Volume (And, Of Course, Accuracy)
The Lakers' defense has by and large been a bright spot. They are second in points allowed per possession outside garbage time since the trade deadline. That alone renders them a prickly opponent—so long as AD is healthy.
Offensive success has been much harder to come by. The Lakers are 17th in points scored per possession during this same stretch, with a bottom-10 half-court attack.
This isn't especially surprising under the circumstances. Their two best creators have missed a ton of time over the past 25 games. DLo has 15 appearances under his belt, while LeBron has just nine.
Playing in transition has been kinder to the Lakers but falls short of a staple. And if they're not going to brutalize opponents with transition frequency and the rim pressure attached to it, they need to do more from the perimeter.
Since the trade deadline, the Lakers are 25th in three-point-attempt rate and 22nd in overall accuracy from beyond the arc. Beasley and Russell are the only players jacking seven or more triples per 36 minutes and draining them at a 35 percent or better clip. Two of the Lakers' highest per-minute launchers, Bamba and Lonnie Walker IV (knee injury), aren't rotation regulars.
LeBron is at 27.1 percent from deep over this stretch. Schröder is at 31.3 percent. AD is at 22.2 percent (on super negligible volume). Hachimura is under 30 percent himself. Brown (41.9 percent) and Reaves (45.1 percent) are hitting their treys. But their marks are at once unsustainable and not coming on enough attempts.
Outside variance, and restriction, is baked into the Lakers' roster makeup. Certain players won't suddenly wake up and be more efficient or higher volume. But Los Angeles, as a team, has the personnel to test out spacier lineups and get its three-point-attempt rate in line with the league average.
Matchups, Matchups, Matchups
There is an element of "Well, duh" at play here. Matchups always matter in the playoffs and play-in.
This year, though, they matter more.
Four losses currently separate the fourth-place Clippers from the 11th-place Dallas Mavericks. The Western Conference margins are so razor thin they might be invisible. So, yeah, matchups are going to matter.
Falling to the Clippers and forfeiting a huge chunk of their fifth-place hopes isn't necessarily a blessing in disguise for the Lakers. They don't have a playoff spot all sewn up; they're not in a position to celebrate losses. Then again, they're all but guaranteed not to face the Kevin Durant-era Suns in the first round. That's...not not ideal.
Optimists will declare the Lakers a more viable threat against, well, everyone else. I'd disagree. Doubting the Denver Nuggets is trendy, and they have, in fact, been playing with the interest of someone headed to the DMV after a dentist appointment. The Lakers should also want no part of Nikola Jokić right out of the gate.
Matching up with the Memphis Grizzlies (second) or Sacramento Kings (third) is a more attractive proposition. That means getting in the playoffs as the No. 6 or No. 7 seed.
Winning out is the most effective way to reach sixth. The Lakers would then need the Warriors to go 1-1 over their final two games.
That might be a tall ask. Golden State closes the season on Apr. 9 against the Portland Trail Blazers, who are releasing injury reports that look like a college thesis:
The Warriors do play Sacramento on Friday, and the Kings still have an outside shot at moving up to second. That game also takes place in Sacramento, and we all know about those Golden State poop-tastic road splits by now.
Bagging sixth place also gives the Lakers the more favorable bracket overall. If they pull off an "upset," they get the winner of No. 2 vs. No. 7—which means they wouldn't be on a collision course with Phoenix, Denver or, most likely, the Clippers in Round 2. And yes, no matter what you think about the Clippers, the latter is a good thing:
Getting in as the No. 7 seed means surviving the play-in. That's not too harrowing when you look at the prospective opponents. New Orleans still doesn't have Zion. The Minnesota Timberwolves are all over the place. The Oklahoma City Thunder are plucky but inexperienced. You theoretically shouldn't want to face Luka Dončić. At the same time, the Dallas Mavericks are hardly imposing, and the Lakers would have to lose their first play-in game or drop all the way to ninth to end up facing them.
Anyone else's head hurt?
Moral of this complicated story: The Lakers should try like hell to win out until sixth place isn't a possibility anymore. That makes Friday's game against Phoenix absolutely massive. The Suns could go full Blazers with their injury report. Or they could put their undefeated-with-KD-in-the-lineup record on the line. The Lakers could use, if not unequivocally need, a win either way.
Unless otherwise noted, stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference, Stathead or Cleaning the Glass. Salary information via Spotrac.
Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@danfavale), and subscribe to the Hardwood Knocks podcast, co-hosted by Bleacher Report's Grant Hughes.
