Players Who Will Sign the Biggest Contract at Each Position Late in NFL Free Agency
Though the 2023 NFL draft has come into our direct focus, several teams have the cap space to make a big splash on the free-agent market.
We're past the early stages of free agency but notable players remain available, and they'll land sizeable deals in the coming weeks. Some teams will wait to see how the draft pans out before filling more roster holes, which will mark another active period of veteran signings.
In the meantime, we'll project which player will earn the biggest contract at each position (offense and defense) and how much he may earn on a new deal.
Big names such as Ezekiel Elliott and Odell Beckham Jr. have aged past their prime years, but they could command more than their peers on the open market.
Quarterback: Carson Wentz
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For the first time in his career, Carson Wentz will likely go into training camp as a backup quarterback. He's suited up for three different teams in each of the previous three seasons. Per NFL Network's Ian Rapoport, Wentz is "open to various roles that can help a team."
Though Wentz will probably transition into a new career phase, he's arguably the best quarterback available over the likes of Teddy Bridgewater and Matt Ryan.
Marcus Mariota and Jarrett Stidham will back up Jalen Hurts and Russell Wilson in the upcoming campaign, respectively. They signed deals worth $5 million annually. Stidham inked a two-year contract with the Denver Broncos.
Assuming Wentz accepts a primary backup role, he should view $5 million in average annual value as his market floor on a new deal. With 151 touchdown passes, 66 interceptions with a 62.6 percent completion rate in 93 games (92 starts), Wentz can command a little more than $5 million.
The Los Angles Rams, who have one quarterback on their depth chart, should give Wentz a call. Matthew Stafford missed eight games last season.
Contract projection: 1 year, $6 million ($4 million guaranteed)
Running Back: Ezekiel Elliott
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At 27 years old, with 1,881 carries on his resume, Ezekiel Elliott has a lot of tread on his legs, but he can still serve as an early-down complement to another running back in a two-man backfield.
Elliott saw a significant drop-off in his rushing yard totals over the last three years, but he's scored 22 rushing touchdowns since 2021. By the way, Elliott has only lost one fumble while taking 468 carries over the previous two terms.
As a bruising ball carrier who can handle short-yardage and goal-line touches, Elliott can contribute to a playoff-contending squad that needs a finisher on the ground.
According to ESPN's Adam Schefter, Elliott "narrowed down" his list of landings spots to the New York Jets, Cincinnati Bengals and Philadelphia Eagles with the intent to sign at the end of March. Dallas Cowboys head coach Mike McCarthy said the team will "keep the door open" for Elliott.
If Elliott is willing to expand his options, he should follow his former offensive coordinator Kellen Moore to the Los Angeles Chargers. Los Angeles has an unsettled contract situation with running back Austin Ekeler.
Elliott could fill a void in the Chargers backfield or complement Ekeler—similar to his role alongside Tony Pollard in Dallas over the past few years.
In terms of average annual value, Elliott should earn more than Jamaal Williams, who signed a three-year, $12 million contract with the New Orleans Saints after one standout campaign with the Detroit Lions (262 carries for 1,066 yards and a league-leading 17 touchdowns).
Contract projection: 2 years, $9 million ($6.5 million guaranteed)
Wide Receiver: Odell Beckham Jr.
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Odell Beckham Jr. hasn't played a snap since the Los Angeles Rams' Super Bowl 56 victory over the Cincinnati Bengals, but according to ESPN's Rich Cimini, the wideout wants an eight-figure salary.
"Beckham is thought to be seeking a one-year deal for $15 million, which is pricey for a 30-year-old receiver coming off his second ACL surgery. A deal in the $10 million to $12 million range seems more likely, with a chance to earn more with incentives. The Jets are said to be the front-runners."
If Beckham inks a one-year, $15 million deal, he would top Allen Lazard's four-year, $44 million pact ($22 million guaranteed) with the New York Jets, which is the biggest contract among wideouts in free agency.
Beckham may fall short of his reported salary demand, but he's the probable top earner among the receivers left on the market. Kenny Golladay, Sammy Watkins and Julio Jones are notable names available, but none of them will command close to $10 million annually.
ESPN's Adam Schefter mentioned the Jets, Rams and Baltimore Ravens as potential suitors for Beckham.
Contract projection: 1 year, $12 million ($8 million guaranteed)
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Tight End: Dan Arnold
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This offseason, Hayden Hurst signed the biggest deal in contract value among tight ends, inking a three-year, $21.8 million pact ($13 million guaranteed) with the Carolina Panthers. Dalton Schultz and Mike Gesicki have signed with the Houston Texans and New England Patriots, respectively, leaving slim pickings at the position.
Dan Arnold isn't a household name, though he's made plays when tasked to contribute in a pass-catching role.
In 2020, Arnold hauled in 31 out of 45 targets for 438 yards and four touchdowns. He finished with a career-high 35 receptions in the following term, splitting time with the Panthers (three contests) and Jacksonville Jaguars (eight contests).
Last year, Evan Engram emerged as the primary pass-catching tight end in the Jaguars offense under head coach Doug Pederson, which left Arnold with few opportunities as a backup. Perhaps he can light a spark with a new team that needs a big-bodied pass-catcher.
The Green Bay Packers could consider Arnold in an attempt to replace Robert Tonyan, who signed with the Chicago Bears in free agency.
Contract projection: 2 years, $7 million ($3 million guaranteed)
Offensive Lineman: Donovan Smith
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As more offensive linemen show their versatility (specifically borderline starters) with the ability to play on the perimeter (tackle) and on the interior (guard/center), we've combined the positions into one group.
With that said, Donovan Smith's experience at left tackle will work in his favor; he'll likely earn the most among the available offensive linemen. Smith has started in 124 games through eight campaigns.
Smith isn't a Pro Bowl or All-Pro tackle, though he's had a decent career with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Going into his age-30 term, Smith should be able to push for a starting job, which means a team may be willing to pay him at least $10 million per year.
Thus far, seven offensive linemen have signed deals worth $10 million or more annually in free agency. Smith should be the eighth, banking a little more than offensive tackle Andre Dillard, who signed a three-year, $29 million contract with the Tennessee Titans. Dillard has only started in nine career games.
If the Chicago Bears prefer to move Braxton Jones into a backup role, Smith could start at left tackle in the Windy City.
Contract projection: 3 years, $33 million ($20 million guaranteed)
Interior Defensive Lineman: Poona Ford
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Defensive tackles must generate pressure and rack up sacks to make the big bucks. This past season, Javon Hargrave recorded a career-high 11 sacks, and at 30 years old, he signed a four-year, $84 million contract ($40 million guaranteed) with the San Francisco 49ers in free agency.
At this point in the offseason, teams won't find a game-wrecker comparable to Hargave on the open market, but general managers may invest a lot in an interior playmaker with some upside.
Poona Ford isn't a young player (27 years old), though his production has trended up in recent years. In each of the previous three seasons, he's registered six or more tackles for loss with at least a couple of sacks.
Ford will do most of his damage on early downs as a run defender, though defensive coordinators should be intrigued by the number of plays he's made in the backfield since 2020.
The Seattle Seahawks should continue to develop Ford into a solid rotational defender.
Contract projection: 2 years, $15 million ($7 million guaranteed)
Linebacker: Kwon Alexander
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Kwon Alexander battled injuries early in his career. Yet he's managed to hold on to or earn starting jobs with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, San Francisco 49ers, New Orleans Saints and New York Jets.
Alexander played in every game through the 2022 term, registering 69 tackles, six for loss, and missing only 5.5 percent of his tackles. Also, he allowed an 89.5 passer rating in coverage, which is decent for a second-level defender.
Coming off a healthy season, Alexander may have a few suitors following the draft, which features a shallow linebacker class.
At 28 years old, Alexander can fill an every-down role, though he's unlikely to earn more than the top linebackers who hit the open market this offseason (Tremaine Edmunds, Bobby Okereke and Germaine Pratt) or Bobby Wagner (one year, $5.5 million), who has accomplished a lot more in his respective career and stills play at a high level.
On a decent salary, Alexander can bring experience to the Tennessee Titans' linebacker corps. Azeez Al-Shaair and Monty Rice have 41 combined starts. For comparison, Alexander has 86 starts on his resume.
Contract projection: 1 year, $4 million ($3 million guaranteed)
Edge-Rusher: Yannick Ngakoue
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Interestingly, NFL teams have a few quality options at this position. Frank Clark, Leonard Floyd and Yannick Ngakoue will all likely command $10 million or more annually in negotiations.
In 2021, Clark earned a Pro Bowl nod. Floyd has registered at least nine sacks for each of the past three seasons. Two years ago, Ngakoue had a double-digit sack campaign with the Las Vegas Raiders.
Typically, clubs will invest heavily in a pass-rusher who's in his prime years, but on the flip side, general managers may hesitate with 30-year-olds. Among three talented edge-rushers, Ngakoue is the youngest. He just turned 28 years old in March. Clark will turn 30 in June, and Floyd is headed into his age-31 term.
The Arizona Cardinals lost their top two pass-rushers from the previous campaign. J.J. Watt retired, and Zach Allen signed with the Denver Broncos. In the desert, Ngakoue can fill a need and provide veteran experience on the edge alongside second-year pass-rushers Cameron Thomas and Myjai Sanders.
Cardinals head coach Jonathan Gannon, who built a strong front as the defensive coordinator for the Philadelphia Eagles, may want a premier pass-rusher. Ngakoue could command more (annually) than off-injured edge-rusher Marcus Davenport, who signed a one-year, $13 million contract with the Minnesota Vikings in free agency.
Contract projection: 3 years, $45 million ($33 million guaranteed)
Cornerback: Rock Ya-Sin
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In 2022, Rock Ya-Sin had a decent showing with the Las Vegas Raiders, logging seven pass breakups while allowing a 60.9 percent completion rate and an 82.6 passer rating in coverage.
Unfortunately for Ya-Sin, he finished the 2022 campaign on injured reserve because of a knee injury, sitting out of the final five games. On March 17, he took a visit with the Baltimore Ravens, per Jordan Schultz of The Score.
If Ya-Sin has recovered from the knee injury, he's a more appealing free-agent option than Marcus Peters at cornerback.
Keep in mind that Peters tore his ACL in September of 2021 and then had a down year in 2022, allowing a 64.3 percent completion rate and a 113.7 passer rating in coverage. With those numbers, going into his age-31 term, he may be headed for a steady decline.
Only 26 years old, following a solid campaign, Ya-Sin will likely command a multiyear deal. Spotrac projected $10.8 million annually for him, but his recent injury may cost him a couple of million dollars.
Contract projection: 2 years, $18 million ($8 million guaranteed)
Safety: John Johnson
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John Johnson's ability to line up all over the secondary should boost his market value. In six seasons, four with the Los Angeles Rams and two with the Cleveland Browns, he's played well at both safety spots and in the slot.
At his best, Johnson can read the quarterback from center field and match up against pass-catchers in the seams. In 2022, he allowed a 55.1 percent completion rate and an 82.8 passer rating in coverage.
On the flip side, Johnson has missed at least nine percent of his tackles in three of his last four seasons. So, his new team may want to use him primarily as a deep safety rather than a defender who plays a majority of his snaps closer to the line of scrimmage.
Johnson could find a home with the Minnesota Vikings, who may need a veteran placeholder at safety while Lewis Cine recovers from a compound fracture in his leg. In 2022, Camryn Bynum started 17 games at safety, but he allowed a 123 passer rating in coverage. Johnson would be an immediate upgrade alongside Harrison Smith.
Assuming the Vikings trade or release edge-rusher Za'Darius Smith, who wants to play elsewhere, per NFL Network's Ian Rapoport, they'll save $12.2 million in cap space, per Over the Cap, which should leave enough room to sign Johnson.
Contract projection: 2 years, $14 million ($9.5 million guaranteed)
NFL player contract figures are provided by Over the Cap.
Maurice Moton covers the NFL for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @MoeMoton.
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