Making the Case for 2023 NFL Draft's Most Polarizing Prospects to Become Stars
If there's one thing that NFL draft analysts all agree on, it's disagreeing.
Sure, there are times when the entire draft community is in lockstep. Just about everyone agrees that Texas running back Bijan Robinson is the No. 1 prospect at his position in 2023.
But many prospects are much more polarizing. For every draftnik convinced that an uber-talented but raw quarterback prospect from Florida has the makings of a megastar, there is one equally sure that accuracy can't be taught. While many are certain that strength and power will win the day for a young edge-rusher from the Big Ten, there are others who believe with equal conviction that a lack of athleticism caps his potential.
The thing is, high-end NFL prospects are high-end prospects for a reason. For even the most polarizing youngster, there's a roadmap for success. For some it's scheme. For others it's coaching and technique. For others it's just good old-fashioned patience.
But there's a path that unlocks their talent. Accentuates what they do best. Paves the way to stardom.
For the most polarizing prospects of 2023…this is the way.
Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida
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We might as well kick things off with arguably the most polarizing pick in the entire 2023 draft.
There are draftniks who are convinced that Anthony Richardson is going to be a superstar at the professional level—the next Josh Allen. There are also those who are just as sure that Richardson will be a bust. That he's the next Kyle Boller or Jake Locker—a strong-armed quarterback with little control over where the ball goes once he lets it rip.
Both sides have a point.
Richardson's physical gifts are undeniable. He's built like a fullback (6'4", 244 pounds). He runs like a wide receiver (4.43 speed). He has a cannon for a right arm. In terms of physical traits, he's the best quarterback in the class. Period.
He doesn't get called a unicorn because there's a horn sticking out of his head.
But Richardson is also just a one-year starter. He completed under 54 percent of his passes in 2022. His passes often lack touch (fastballs galore), and he struggled working through his progressions at times.
Richardson is admittedly a risky pick. But Bleacher Report's Derrik Klassen wrote that it's a risk worth taking.
"Richardson's rare bundle of traits are worth a risky bet," he said. "Players with his build, athletic profile, arm strength and advanced pocket management are hard to find. Speeding up his process a bit and ironing out his accuracy will be necessary, but Richardson is a young player with plenty of room to grow, and hopefully, the right environment can foster that growth. Richardson would fit best in an offense that embraces both his athleticism and arm strength in the intermediate and deep sections of the field."
If Richardson becomes just an adequate passer in the NFL, his scrambling ability will make him a nightmare to defend. With a little patience and some coaching, that should be doable.
Take it up a notch from there, and you have a faster, more athletic Josh Allen.
Not just a star. A superstar.
Will Levis, QB, Kentucky
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While Anthony Richardson's stock has been on the rise after his showing at the NFL Scouting Combine, Will Levis has been headed in the opposite direction. In his most recent mock draft at ESPN, Todd McShay had the Kentucky signal-caller falling all the way to No. 14.
After Kentucky's recent pro day, McShay said many of his reservations are based on Levis' mechanics.
"You can still see the tightness in his mechanics, which aren't a finished product," McShay said. "Levis' placement on in-breaking throws wasn't ideal, with some passes arriving behind receivers. Really, the workout reminded me of his tape. There were 'wow' throws, but then he missed on ball location on others.
"He has the traits to do so many things that [Bryce] Young and [C.J.] Stroud can't, but evaluators are wondering if he will be able to figure out the mechanics. I'd like to see Levis work on his flexibility a bit, which would help him hit the layups and put the ball in the right spot with more consistency. Can he learn to keep receivers in stride with his timing and touch to maximize the production on each throw?"
Saying that Levis needs work is a reasonable assessment. His accuracy came and went in college, and the argument can be made he didn't play as well in 2022 as the year before.
But those fits of inaccuracy can in large part be traced to his mechanics, which can be fixed. All the things you can't teach, Levis has. Size. Mobility. Arm talent.
Much like with Richardson, the team who drafts Levis needs to be real about the fact he's not ready to lead an NFL offense yet. Stroud and Young are NFL-ready. Day 1 starters. Levis isn't.
But given some time to develop, refine his mechanics and work on his reads, Levis has the talent to be an excellent NFL quarterback.
It's just going to take some patience.
Jalin Hyatt, WR, Tennessee
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We have become spoiled in recent years by loaded wide receiver classes that bought us superstars like Ja'Marr Chase of the Bengals and Justin Jefferson of the Vikings. This year's class isn't as loaded, with the general consensus being that Ohio State's Jaxon Smith-Njigba will be the first wideout drafted.
It wasn't Smith-Njigba who received the Biletnikoff Award last year as college football's top wideout—that honor went to Tennessee's Jalin Hyatt, who caught 67 passes for 1,267 yards and 15 touchdowns.
So why isn't Hyatt under consideration as the No. 1 wide receiver? Because, as Klassen wrote, the 6'0", 176-pounder was a "one-trick speed threat" in college.
"Hyatt's speed alone will make him useful out of the gate," he said. "He should immediately be an effective downfield threat and a useful field-stretching decoy at worst. However, Hyatt's middling route-running skills and difficult transition from Tennessee's offense to the NFL could make for a bumpy start while he tries to find another pitch beside his fastball."
However, just because Hyatt didn't run a ton of route concepts in college doesn't mean he can't. Hyatt is all of 21 years old, so to say there's room for his game to grow is an understatement. Even if his so-so change-of-direction skills limit his route tree, he could still do a ton of damage with go routes and slants. DeSean Jackson turned outrunning people into a 15-year career that included three Pro Bowls.
You can't teach speed. Hyatt has it all day long.
On a team that knows how to best take advantage of that, he could make an impact in short order.
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Luke Musgrave, TE, Oregon State
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In the 21st-century NFL, every team that doesn't have a Travis Kelce-type wants one. They yearn for a field-stretcher capable of creating mismatches over the middle down the field.
As Klassen wrote in his scouting report for Oregon State tight end Luke Musgrave, in that respect at least the 6'6" 253-pounder should interest quite a few NFL teams.
"In simple terms, Musgrave is too tall and fast to cover easily," he said. "He's 6'6" but plays with airy change-of-direction skills and long, explosive strides that allow him to separate in the open field. He excels on deeper routes, such as seam routes, deep overs and corner routes that allow his athletic tools to shine. Moreover, Musgrave has the twitch and route-running chops for a full route tree, even from wide receiver alignments."
Musgrave isn't a one-trick player, either. He's not exceptionally strong, but he's a capable blocker. That only serves to add to his versatility, as Musgrave can play in-line or split out wide.
However, Musgrave isn't flawless as a prospect. His play strength is just average, meaning he can be stuffed at the beginning of his route, beaten for contested catches or overpowered on blocks.
The good news is that as deficiencies go, this one has a relatively straightforward remedy. If play strength is lacking, just get stronger.
The bad news is that it can't be accomplished overnight. This isn't to say that Musgrave can't make an early dent—at least in flashes.
But the team who drafts him needs to be realistic about the fact it could be 2024 or even 2025 before Musgrave truly comes into his own.
Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia
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There was a time when Georgia defensive tackle Jalen Carter was considered one of the favorites to be the first overall pick in the 2023 NFL draft. But much has changed since then.
On March 16, he pleaded no contest to charges of racing and reckless driving prior to the single-car crash that killed Georgia teammate Devin Willock and recruiting staffer Chandler LeCroy on Jan. 15.
Then, after passing on working out at the NFL Scouting Combine, Carter showed up to Georgia's March 15 pro day nine pounds heavier than in Indy and looked winded during position drills. It was, by just about any reasonable estimation, a poor workout.
It has been a rough offseason for the 6'3", 314-pounder. The off-field incident is a legitimate concern. So is the shaky workout.
But we're still talking about a player that Bleacher Report's scouting department ranked as the second-best player in the class. And a player that B/R's Matt Holder compared to Hall of Famer Warren Sapp.
"Unlike a lot of defensive tackles who have a specialty, the Florida native is about as versatile as they come," Holder said. "He's quick and athletic to make offensive linemen miss as a run defender and has plenty of strength to hold up against and shed one-on-one blocks. As a pass-rusher, he can win with power using a bull rush or push-pull move or around the edges with finesse moves."
Provided that Carter can stay out of trouble, one poor workout doesn't erase hours of Carter shining on college football's biggest stage.
Any slide he experiences on draft day could be a bargain for a team that selects him. Because everything we've seen from him on the field points to a star in the making.
Lukas Van Ness, Edge, Iowa
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It's not that often that a player gets first-round buzz despite not starting a single game in college. That didn't stop Lukas Van Ness from making an impact—the 6'5" 272-pounder tallied 38 total tackles and 6.5 sacks on the way to second-team All-Big Ten honors in 2022.
On one hand, Van Ness looks the part of an NFL edge-rusher. But he's not an elite athlete, which as Holder wrote can make him a difficult player to evaluate.
"Van Ness already has an NFL-ready body and can be an absolute bear in the trenches," he said. "He's strong and physical at the point of attack, which gives offensive linemen a lot of trouble in pass protection and the ground game. Iowa also used him up and down the defensive line, so he can play multiple spots as well. However, he's inferior athletically to a lot of other top edge-defenders in this year's draft class. That seemed to limit the Hawkeye's pass-rush arsenal to power moves and can cause him to lose contain against athletic quarterbacks."
For Van Ness, the path to stardom is a two-parter. The first part is patience, as even the best edge-rusher prospects take time to acclimate to the NFL. Myles Garrett has one season with fewer than 10 sacks—his rookie year.
The second part is location. Ideally, Van Ness will land on a four-man front opposite a more athletic speed-rusher type. That will keep doubles off Van Ness and allow him to use his strength and power to set the edge and collapse the pocket.
Van Ness will probably never be a 15-sack guy. But in the right situation and with a little seasoning, he has the potential to be similar to Sam Hubbard or Maxx Crosby.
And that ain't bad at all.
Myles Murphy, Edge, Clemson
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Whereas Lukas Van Ness is all about power and strength, Clemson's Myles Murphy has athleticism to spare. This isn't to say that the 6'5", 268-pounder can't push a lineman back—he certainly can. But he's just as capable of getting around the edge as he is running someone over.
Per Kevin Flaherty of 247Sports, that athleticism was on display at Clemson's pro day.
"Murphy ran the 40-yard dash in 4.52 seconds, the three-cone drill in 7.20 seconds and the short shuttle in 4.35 seconds, marks that would have ranked seventh, tied for fifth and third at the NFL Scouting Combine, respectively," he said. "While those would be impressive numbers at any side for a defensive end, Murphy put them up while measuring 6'5" and 271 pounds."
A 4.52-second 40 at that size is moving. Murphy is also experienced, as he was a three-year starter for the Tigers.
However, for all his potential, Murphy wasn't especially productive in college—just 18.5 sacks over those three seasons. That's in part because Murphy's technique and hand placement aren't great—his first move is dispatched by opposing blockers too regularly.
That brings us back to a word that has already appeared more than once in this column—patience. Most collegiate edge-rushers need to improve their technique in the NFL. To develop more pass-rushing moves than the one that worked so often in school. It's not unusual.
Murphy's best case is playing end on a four-man front for a team that doesn't expect an immediate impact. The opportunity to play situationally as a rookie behind a more established veteran presence.
Give him a year to acclimate, and Murphy's 2024 season could be quite the coming-out party.
Trenton Simpson, LB, Clemson
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In 2020, Clemson linebacker Isaiah Simmons parlayed plus athleticism into becoming a top-10 pick in the NFL draft. Fast forward a few years, and there's another undersized Tigers linebacker entering the NFL.
However, as Michael Renner wrote for Pro Football Focus, while Simmons was regarded as one of the top defensive prospects in his class, Trenton Simpson is regarded with more skepticism—in part because his production has yet to match his potential.
"The 6'2", 235-pounder ran a 4.43-second 40 and vertical-jumped 40.5 inches in the predraft process," he said. "He has the kind of frame, range and power that everyone is looking for at linebacker, but he just doesn't quite have the tape and only played true between-the-tackles linebacker for one season. With all those tools, Simpson also only broke up two passes in his career and picked off zero."
However, Holder believes that in the right scheme, Simpson can be a difference-maker.
"Schematically, Simpson would be best as a 'Will' linebacker for a team that uses a lot of even fronts and man coverage," he said. "Down the line, he can probably mix in at 'Sam,' too, but he'll need to become more consistent with his angles on the front side of outside runs before he can make a full-time switch to that position. He also isn't a terrible fit in a zone scheme, but that will take some time and development, and he looks more comfortable in man."
Some teams toward the back of Round 1 could both use such a talent and have a player in place who would allow Simpson to grow into a larger role. There are some teams early in Day 2 for which he'd likely be an immediate starter.
The former would be the better route—much like Simmons before him, Simpson will need some time to best make use of his talents.
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