Juan Soto and MLB Hitters, Pitchers Primed to Rebound in 2023
The 2023 Major League Baseball season is already underway, but that doesn't make it too late for one last look at the year's biggest rebound candidates.
Though there are more than 10 such candidates, that's the number we settled on for this list.
There were two things that drew us to these players, the first of which was obvious: they all fell short of expectations in 2022. Some had good but not quite great years. Others had just plain bad years. Either way, there's room to improve in '23.
The real key here was the second thing, which we'll call tangible reasons for optimism. These are mostly related to on-field, performance-based matters, but some off-the-field events also entered into the equation.
Going in alphabetical order, we'll start with five hitters and end with five pitchers.
RF Ronald Acuña Jr., Atlanta
1 of 10
Age: 25
2022 Stats: 119 G, 533 PA, 15 HR, 29 SB, .266 AVG, .351 OBP, .413 SLG
What Went Wrong in 2022
Admirable though it was that Ronald Acuña Jr. returned to action less than a year after he sustained a season-ending ACL tear in July 2021, he clearly wasn't himself.
Just going off his results, his 114 OPS+ for last season was well short of the norm of 138 he established through his first four seasons. As his average sprint was down about a foot-per-second from 2021, he didn't have his usual speed either.
Why There's Hope for 2023
Even setting aside that Acuña is going into 2023 fully healthy, there are also the indications that he was more like himself than last year's results let on.
He was hypothetically one of the unluckiest right-handed hitters of 2022, which is believable in context of how his peripheral batting metrics were mostly solid. His zone discipline and penchant for hard contact were notably still there, resulting in an xwOBA that ranked in the 95th percentile.
As for Acuña's health, the big tell there will be if his speed rebounds to its formerly elite levels. It's early yet, but it's a good sign that he's already touched 30 feet-per-second on a sprint from home to first.
3B Max Muncy, Los Angeles Dodgers
2 of 10
Age: 32
2022 Stats: 136 G, 565 PA, 21 HR, 2 SB, .196 AVG, .329 OBP, .384 SLG
What Went Wrong in 2022
Between 2018 and 2021, Max Muncy was the only hitter to have three seasons of at least 35 home runs and a 130 OPS+. He was clearly not that guy in 2022, in part thanks to a lingering elbow injury.
Worse, Muncy wasn't even that unlucky. At .208, his expected batting average was one of the worst in the majors.
Why There's Hope for 2023
It helps that Muncy exited last season on an upswing. Of the 21 home runs he hit in 2022, 17 came in his last 84 games.
Muncy otherwise retained some of the hallmarks of his earlier success, including a chase rate in the 100th percentile and marks for exit velocity, hard contact and barrels that were all above average. Really the only downside was that he probably hit too many balls in the air.
The shift ban could be just what the left-handed swinger needs to solve that. He's understandably happy about not having to worry about always having to hit the ball over or through a wall of defenders, hinting that it "simplifies the approach a little bit."
1B Carlos Santana, Pittsburgh Pirates
3 of 10
Age: 36
2022 Stats: 131 G, 506 PA, 19 HR, 0 SB, .202 AVG, .316 OBP, .376 SLG
What Went Wrong in 2022
It's indeed been a rough couple of years for Carlos Santana, who went from getting MVP votes in 2019 to posting an 89 OPS+ over the next three seasons.
Perhaps his biggest problem is that he just doesn't slug like he used to. The three worst extra-base hit percentages of his career have all come in his last three seasons.
Why There's Hope for 2023
As Justice delos Santos of MLB.com noted on Twitter in November, Santana did many things well in 2022 even as his numbers continued to trend below his career norms:
The veteran switch-hitter especially underperformed his expected batting average, falling a league-high 51 points short of it with his actual batting average. To this end, it didn't help that he was shifted on 97.5 percent of the time he batted lefty.
Santana thus looks like a potential shift ban beneficiary even in the abstract, and that much more so when considering that that he traditionally pulls over half of his ground balls and line drives when batting lefty.
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SS Corey Seager, Texas Rangers
4 of 10
Age: 28
2022 Stats: 151 G, 663 PA, 33 HR, 3 SB, .245 AVG, .317 OBP, .455 SLG
What Went Wrong in 2022
Corey Seager did set a career high for home runs in 2022, so last season obviously wasn't all bad. But in going from .306 to .245, he had one of the biggest drops in batting average from 2021 to 2022 of any hitter.
As his walk rate likewise went from the 84th to the 57th percentile, Seager was ultimately more of an all-or-nothing hitter than usual.
Why There's Hope for 2023
There actually isn't anything positive to grasp on to regarding Seager's walk rate, but the Rangers probably won't complain if his average at least comes up.
As that goes, it's not exactly a secret at this point that the shift absolutely killed Seager in 2022. He was shifted on 93.4 percent of the time and he ended up making 32 more outs to shifted second basemen and shortstops than any other hitter.
Mark Simon of Sports Info Solutions estimated that Seager lost 25 hits to the shift last year. Had he collected on those, he would have hit .287 instead of .245.
LF Juan Soto, San Diego Padres
5 of 10
Age: 24
2022 Stats: 153 G, 664 PA, 27 HR, 6 SB, .242 AVG, .401 OBP, .452 SLG
What Went Wrong in 2022
Not a whole lot, given that Juan Soto salvaged an eighth-place finish among qualified hitters with a 149 OPS+. Yet he took a step back from 2021 in all three triple-slash categories, including with an 82-point drop in his slugging percentage.
"Mechanically, I was off last year," Soto told Matt Snyder of CBSSports.com, even looping in the 2022 spring training. "The whole year, I couldn't find my mechanics."
Why There's Hope for 2023
As he was one of only three hitters to go into the All-Star break with at least a .400 OBP and 20-plus home runs, Soto did indeed look like himself in the first half of last season. It was after the break that his numbers deflated, though that's understandable in retrospect.
It was after the All-Star Game that the trade rumors really started to pick up, ultimately resulting in Soto going from the Washington Nationals to the Padres. In his own words, it was a "crazy, wild year."
It can only help that things will be more stable for Soto this year, and he's likewise owed some good luck after underperforming his 99th-percentile xwOBA by 25 points last year.
RHP Kyle Gibson, Baltimore Orioles
6 of 10
Age: 35
2022 Stats: 31 GS, 167.2 IP, 176 H (24 HR), 144 K, 48 BB, 5.05 ERA
What Went Wrong in 2022
First, a reminder that Kyle Gibson was fresh off an All-Star selection and sporting a sub-3.00 ERA when the Rangers traded him to the Philadelphia Phillies in 2021. Yet it never was a good fit and ultimately proved to be as such.
Gibson's 43 appearances with the Phillies yielded a 5.06 ERA, with more hits (242) than innings pitched (236.2).
Why There's Hope for 2023
If nothing else, Gibson can hope that he won't be as snakebit with men on base as he was in 2022. He stranded just 67.7 percent of the runners he put on, good for the lowest mark among qualified starters.
Otherwise, Gibson made the right call in joining a a team that should be more accommodating of his ground-ball magnetism. Whereas Phillies infielders accounted for minus-11 outs above average in 2022, Orioles infielders were at plus-six.
LHP Josh Hader, San Diego Padres
7 of 10
Age: 28
2022 Stats: 56 G, 45 GF, 50.0 IP, 43 H (8 HR), 81 K, 21 BB, 5.22 ERA
What Went Wrong in 2022
Last year was a bad one in general for Josh Hader, and especially so between June 5 and Sep. 5. He made 27 appearances and coughed up 29 runs on 35 hits and 14 walks.
Right-handed batters especially gave the left-handed Hader fits last year. After never going higher than .608 previously, their OPS against him shot up to .737.
Why There's Hope for 2023
Hader didn't have the easiest time off the field in 2022. He had to step away from the Milwaukee Brewers in May for personal reasons. Not long after that, a trade to San Diego caused still more upheaval.
The four-time All-Star nonetheless began righting his ship before the year was even over. Between his last 10 appearances of the regular season and five playoff appearances, he struck out 23 of the 53 batters he faced and allowed no earned runs on just five hits.
Through it all, Hader was pumping his fastball at a career-high average of 97.5 mph and maintaining a whiff rate in the 97th percentile. So while he did indeed struggle for much of 2022, at no point was he broken.
RHP Germán Márquez, Colorado Rockies
8 of 10
Age: 28
2022 Stats: 31 GS, 181.2 IP, 185 H (30 HR), 150 K, 63 BB, 4.95 ERA
What Went Wrong in 2022
Between 2017 and 2021, Germán Márquez became the first Rockies pitcher to record five straight seasons with an ERA+ of at least 100. That streak ended with last year's 94 ERA+, and it's frankly hard to argue that he didn't deserve it.
To wit, the right-hander posted the worst full-season strikeout rate of his career and also served up a career high 30 home runs.
Why There's Hope for 2023
Similar to Gibson, Márquez can at least hope for better luck with men on the bases after he stranded just 68.1 percent of the runners he put on in 2022.
Apart from that, it's some comfort that Márquez's stuff didn't necessarily take a turn for the worse last season. The 95.4 mph that he averaged on his fastball was basically par for the course and, at least according to Stuff+, his slider still rated as an above-average pitch.
It's perhaps unsurprising, then, that Márquez broke out the slider more often than usual in his 2023 debut against the Padres. It accounted for 28.7 percent of his pitches, up from 20.0 percent last season.
RHP Charlie Morton, Atlanta
9 of 10
Age: 39
2022 Stats: 31 GS, 172.0 IP, 149 H (28 HR), 205 K, 63 BB, 4.34 ERA
What Went Wrong in 2022
After pitching to a 130 ERA+ and winning his second World Series ring in 2021, Charlie Morton saw his ERA rise by a full run in 2022. And not necessarily by accident.
You could tell by looking at the veteran righty's home run rate, which more than doubled as he shattered his previous career high by allowing 28 total long balls.
Why There's Hope for 2023
Like Márquez, Morton at least continued to look good from the perspective of the radar gun last year. At 94.9 mph, his average fastball was only 0.4 mph slower than it had been in 2021.
Crucially, he also finished a lot stronger than he started. After posting a 5.67 ERA through his first 12 starts, Morton ripped off a 3.63 ERA and struck out 102 more batters than he walked over his last 19 outings.
That was largely a case of him getting more out of one of the best curveballs in the game today. He went to it more often in those last 19 outings and benefited as it gained a spot among the most valuable pitches of any kind during that stretch.
LHP Taylor Rogers, San Francisco Giants
10 of 10
Age: 31
2022 Stats: 66 G, 40 GF, 64.1 IP, 57 H (7 HR), 84 K, 19 BB, 4.76 ERA
What Went Wrong in 2022
Taylor Rogers was one of MLB's top relievers between 2019 and 2021, racking up a 145 ERA+ and 7.5 times as many strikeouts as walks. Then it all went south in 2022, and especially after he went from San Diego to Milwaukee.
After giving up one home run in 41.1 innings as a Padre, Rogers served up six long balls in 23 innings as a Brewer. And they hurt, as two were three-run homers and one was a grand slam.
Why There's Hope for 2023
One thing we can't ignore that Rogers' fastball didn't have the same zip in 2022. After averaging 95.8 mph in 2021, he slipped to 94.5 mph while he was with San Diego and then 93.9 mph while he was with Milwaukee.
It's a good thing, then, that Rogers' primary pitch is his slider. And it mostly continued to baffle opposing hitters last season, holding them to a .191 average and a 38.0 whiff percentage.
As long as Rogers has that pitch working, he may yet be a closer-caliber reliever again. If not, his career splits suggest he'll at least he useful to the Giants against left-handed batters.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
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