MLB's Rob Manfred: I Agree with Owner Who Said Analytics Is 'Arms Race to Nowhere'

MLB Commissoner Rob Manfred said he concurred with an anonymous owner who called the reliance on analytics "an arms race to nowhere."

"It's become one of my favorite lines because I think it's actually true," Manfred said, per The Athletic's Evan Drellich.

The full context of the owner's remark is unclear. The owner could've been referencing how little they believe analytics actually impacts winning and losing, or they could've been alluding to analytics' wider impact on baseball.

In the case of the former, the "nerds" won that battle long ago.

The Houston Astros have won two World Series titles and another pair of American League pennants thanks in part to their reliance on analytics and advanced statistics. The Tampa Bay Rays continually win despite having one of MLB's lowest payrolls for the same reason.

But an argument can be made that the movement first launched by Moneyball has adversely affected the game writ large.

"Once everybody's doing it, that little margin that maybe you're getting … I am sure that whatever that margin was at one point in time—whatever it is today—it sure as heck is not worth the damage that was done to the game over a period of time," Manfred said.

When nearly everybody is using the same playbook, it's bound to take some excitement out of the action. The NBA has been grappling with the same problem—whether it's real or perceived—as teams have embraced fast-paced, three-point-heavy offenses.

In baseball, the increased frequency of the "three true outcomes" (strikeouts, walks and home runs) has amplified the criticism toward analytics.

The "Deadball Era" effectively ended in 1919. It's not a coincidence that three of the six lowest league-wide batting averages since 1920 are 2020, 2021 and 2022.

Banning defensive shifts was supposed to help increase the number of balls in play. Although making any judgments now would be premature, the 2023 season is on pace to have the 12th-lowest batting average (.249) since 1920.

Manfred and other league officials might have to go back to the drawing board to further offset the ways in which analytics have shaped baseball as it is today.