NCAA Women's Basketball Tournament 2023: Final Four Odds, Schedule, Bracket
The South Carolina Gamecocks enter the Women's Final Four in Dallas with the goal of becoming the first team to repeat as champion since the UConn Huskies' four-peat from 2013-16.
Dawn Staley's side has been the dominant power in the sport all season, as evidenced by its 36-0 record, but to reach Sunday's national championship, it has to slow down the most dynamic player in the sport.
Caitlin Clark led the Iowa Hawkeyes to Dallas with a 40-point triple-double in the Elite Eight. She has been difficult to stop all season, and if she is at her best, Iowa has a chance to upset the No. 1 overall seed, or at least cover the point spread.
The South Carolina-Iowa showdown is the main event on Friday night, but the opener should be fun to watch as well.
Angel Reese and the LSU Tigers go head-to-head with Elizabeth Kitley and the Virginia Tech Hokies.
Wins by South Carolina and LSU would set up the third final since 2017 in which two teams from the same conference played each other.
Iowa and Virginia Tech are trying to reach the national championship for the first time in program history. Both teams may need a perfect game to dethrone the SEC powers.
Women's Final Four Schedule and Odds
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Friday, March 31
No. 3 LSU (-2) vs. No. 1 Virginia Tech (Over/Under: 133) (7 p.m. ET, ESPN)
No. 2 Iowa vs. No. 1 South Carolina (-11.5) (O/U: 150) (9 p.m. ET, ESPN)
Iowa vs. South Carolina
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South Carolina-Iowa was the matchup that a lot of basketball fans wanted to see once the NCAA women's basketball tournament bracket was revealed.
The storyline could not be more perfect for a Final Four game.
The established power and reigning champion of women's basketball takes on the superstar that has guided a program to its first Final Four appearance in 30 years.
South Carolina won all four of its NCAA tournament games by double figures, and it proved it could win a high-scoring battle when it beat the Maryland Terrapins 86-75 in the Elite Eight.
That is an important score to note since Iowa possesses the best scoring offense in Division I.
South Carolina ranks fourth in points allowed per game. Its defense flexed on its first three opponents by holding them all under 50 points. The Gamecocks allowed no more than 61 points in the six games of their title run last season.
Iowa will try to push the game into a shootout behind Clark's scoring and passing abilities. That is the only way the Hawkeyes can win. Clark produced 120 points and 44 assists in Iowa's four NCAA tournament games. She eclipsed the 20-point mark in all but three games this season.
Iowa is not programmed to win a low-scoring affair in the 60s. The Hawkeyes have one victory this season in which they did not score 70 points, and they missed the 70-point threshold once in six defeats.
The Hawkeyes' season-long track record suggests that if they win, the over of 150 points will be in play. An Iowa cover, or even a money-line bet, should be partnered by an over bet because of how efficient the Hawkeyes offense can be.
Iowa has the best individual player in Clark, and it played seven top 10 opponents this season, but the one thing it does not have preparation for is the atmosphere of the Final Four.
South Carolina knows how to deal with the pressure of the situation since this is the program's third straight Final Four.
Aliyah Boston and Co. could storm out to a big lead by the end of the first quarter because they know exactly how to approach a game of this magnitude.
The Gamecocks need to enforce their defensive dominance right away to avoid Clark from getting hot. They held 13 of their last 15 opponents under 70 points, so the chances of that happening are pretty high.
South Carolina should be favored to advance to Sunday's final, but if Iowa gets hot from the field in the second half, it may be able to stay within single digits and cover the spread.
An upset could happen if Clark goes off for another 40 points, but in that scenario, South Carolina could slow down the other parts of Iowa's offense and still hold the Hawkeyes under 70 points.
LSU vs. Virginia Tech
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Friday's opener does not carry the same buzz as the South Carolina-Iowa clash, but LSU-Virginia Tech could be the better game of the two.
The point spread suggests the Tigers and Hokies will not gain much separation from each other over four quarters.
LSU's edge is on the glass. Reese earns all of the rebounding headlines because she ranks second in the nation in rebounds per game.
The entire LSU team is strong on the boards. The Tigers have a +16.6 rebounding differential, which is second only to South Carolina. They have three players who average over 5.5 rebounds per contest.
Virginia Tech owns a +6.7 rebounding differential thanks to Kitley, who averages 10.7 rebounds per game to go along with her 18.2 points per contest.
Kitley's rebounding ability needs to neutralize Reese's threat for Virginia Tech to not be overwhelmed. The Tigers could take away any second-chance opportunities, and create more for themselves, if Reese controls the paint battle.
The Hokies can eliminate LSU's potential rebounding advantage simply by making shots, and Georgia Amoore has been fantastic at that throughout the NCAA tournament.
Amoore hit 20 three-point shots over the last four games. LSU has 11 three-point makes in the entire tournament. The Tigers went 4-for-25 from beyond the arc in their last two games.
LSU can control the paint all it wants, but if Amoore catches fire from deep again, the Hokies can dictate the offensive pace.
The Tigers do have the coaching edge with Kim Mulkey, who won three titles and coached in five Final Fours with the Baylor Bears.
Each team has an advantage in the matchup, and whichever team exploits its edge the most could walk away with a spot in the national championship.
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