Handing Out Awards for Every NBA Team This Season
Another NBA regular season is just about complete, so it's time to look back at every team's top players, biggest stories and most valuable contributors of 2022-23. That's right: We've reached awards season.
For each team, we'll name an MVP, a Defensive Player of the Year and a Best Newcomer/Biggest Surprise. Plus, we'll throw in a catch-all, miscellaneous honor to acknowledge anything major that the other categories didn't cover.
In all, we're doling out 120 trophies.
Recipients, please limit your acceptance speeches to no more than three seconds. A simple "thanks" would be ideal. We have a lot of ground to cover.
Atlanta Hawks
1 of 30
MVP: Trae Young
Young failed to make the All-Star team for the second time in three years and is a good bet to finish with his worst true shooting percentage since he was a rookie in 2018-19. But choosing anyone else for the Atlanta Hawks MVP would feel wrong. Young is still the guy who runs the show and sits atop every opponent's scouting report.
When a "down year" includes averages of 26.3 points and a career-best 9.9 assists per game, it's a good indication you're dealing with a quality player. Even if Young may have some strides to make as a leader and unifying locker room presence, he's the easy pick.
DPOY: Clint Capela
It was tempting to go with Onyeka Okongwu here. His mobility and impressive on-off impact on Atlanta's defense made him a real consideration. But Clint Capela holds opponents to a slightly lower field-goal percentage inside six feet than Okongwu, and the numbers that show Atlanta's defensive rating is actually worse with Capela on the floor come with important context: He shares most of his time with Young, whose reputation as one of the worst defenders in the league is well deserved.
The advanced metrics are somewhat mixed, but Capela will finish the year with the best Defensive RAPTOR rating on the team—not to mention a lower foul rate and a much higher defensive rebounding rate than his backup.
Best Newcomer: Dejounte Murray
He didn't come cheap, costing the Hawks a trio of first-round picks, but Murray showed up and contributed exactly as advertised. The 26-year-old combo guard will finish with a scoring average north of 20.0 points per game for the second year in a row, leads the team with 1.5 steals per contest, continues to hit the defensive glass at rates most forwards would envy and even reached a new level as a perimeter shooter. Murray's previous career high in three-point makes was just 96 last season in San Antonio. He blew past that total in 47 games this year.
Murray didn't solve the age-old issue of Atlanta's offense cratering without Young in the game, as the Hawks scored at a rate that would rank in the 22nd percentile whenever Murray took the floor sans Young. But nobody's been able to crack that one.
Point the Finger Elsewhere Award: The Entire Starting Five
Young, Murray, De'Andre Hunter, John Collins and Capela weren't the problem in an otherwise disappointing Hawks season that saw the team hover around .500 for a historic length of time. They'll finish the year with the second-highest net rating of any five-man group to play at least 1,300 possessions together, trailing only the Denver Nuggets' dominant starting five.
Atlanta will likely head into the offseason with an eye toward making significant changes, and Collins certainly could find himself in trade rumors for the millionth time. Just sayin': The starters have been good all season.
Boston Celtics
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MVP: Jayson Tatum
An All-Star for the fourth year running and a safe bet to make his second consecutive All-NBA first team, Tatum is also in line to (narrowly) set the Boston Celtics' all-time single-season record for scoring average. Offense is up around the league, but this is a franchise that has had more than its share of elite offensive talents over the years.
Tatum is about to top them all.
In addition to points, Tatum has also upped his rebound and assist averages in every year of his career. He developed his foul-drawing craft this season and has made strides as a passer en route to 4.7 assists per game.
Forget the team-specific honor; Tatum shouldn't finish lower than fifth in the leaguewide version of the MVP award.
DPOY: Marcus Smart
Just about everyone in the rotation on this team can guard. Robert Williams III's length and speed might make him the most irreplaceable piece of the puzzle, but Al Horford can still move his feet, Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown never get enough credit for their effort on that end and Derrick White (who leads the team in blocked shots at 6'4") might make an All-Defensive team himself.
We're still going with the man who won DPOY last season.
Smart's size and strength make him a viable option against forwards and some centers, he's hard to screen, and his combination of intensity and intelligence are tough to top. Plus, he's good for at least one cagey crunch-time flop that earns an extra possession every game. He's one of just four players in the league with at least 140 deflections and 10 charges drawn on the season.
Best Newcomer: Malcolm Brogdon
Every Celtics player was hot from three-point range to start the season, but Brogdon and Horford were the only ones who didn't turn down the temperature. In addition to hitting 43.9 percent of his triples, Brogdon has juggled roles as a spot-up threat, cutter and pick-and-roll operator. The Celtics have spent stretches of the year searching for offensive flow, and Brogdon, acquired in free agency, has provided enough versatility to explore loads of options.
A Sixth Man of the Year candidate, the 30-year-old guard has never been better on a per-minute basis and is in line to set new career highs in true shooting percentage and Box Plus/Minus. Everyone agreed Brogdon was a perfect fit when Boston signed him, and he's validated that belief all season.
Sneakily Integral Award: Derrick White
We already nodded to White's status as one of the best shot-blocking guards in the league, and he deserves praise for quietly keying so much of what's gone right for the Celtics overall this year. No Boston player's minutes coincide with a larger net-rating spike than White's, and anyone watching him contribute on both ends understands why.
White gives the Celtics elite backcourt defense, knockdown three-point shooting (except for the month of December, when he couldn't hit anything), connective passing, timely drives and unwavering effort. He's the ultimate gap-filler; whatever's missing on a given night, White provides it.
Brooklyn Nets
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MVP/Biggest Surprise: Mikal Bridges
The rapid expansion of Mikal Bridges' game is going to cause executives around the league to look anew at the high-end role players on their rosters. They'll wonder whether those players have more (much more!) to offer if given the chance to take on greater offensive responsibility. Chances are, most such supporting pieces will fall short of what Bridges achieved this season
Though he'd made incremental strides as an on-ball option prior to the deadline deal that sent him to the Brooklyn Nets, Bridges essentially turned into an entirely different player on his new team. His usage rate spiked 10 percentage points, and his true shooting percentage went from 57.4 with the Suns to 63.5 in his first 20 games with the Nets. That's not how the volume-efficiency dynamic typically works, but Bridges managed to add loads of field goals and free throws without sacrificing efficiency.
Defensively, Bridges hasn't been as dominant as he was in Phoenix when his offensive role was so much less taxing. The Nets will take the tradeoff because now they have a top-flight two-way wing averaging over 27.0 points per game while flirting with a 50/40/90 shooing split—a player so good they reportedly turned down offers of four first-round picks for him.
DPOY: Nic Claxton
They say it's better to show than tell. So instead of describing how 6'11", shot-swatting center Nic Claxton appears so comfortable getting down into a stance and checking point guards, we can just offer the visual evidence.
Claxton's leap this season would have warranted much more attention if not for Bridges' bigger jump. His plus-2.1 DEPM is sixth among full-time centers, and he ranks sixth in the NBA in ESPN's DRPM. An elite rim-protector averaging 2.5 blocks per game who can also stay in front of the quickest ball-handlers in the league? Yeah, that'll be good enough to win a team DPOY award.
Instant Bucket Award: Cam Thomas
Thomas' record-setting string of three straight 40-point games was easily the high point of his sophomore season. With Kyrie Irving dealt to Dallas and Kevin Durant nursing an injury, Thomas took it upon himself to pick up the scoring slack and succeeded to a greater degree than anyone could have expected. And that's saying something because Thomas' bucket-getting prowess has been obvious since he became the all-time leading scorer at Oak Hill Academy, where renowned scorers Carmelo Anthony and Jerry Stackhouse once played.
Charlotte Hornets
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MVP: Terry Rozier
LaMelo Ball is undoubtedly the Charlotte Hornets' best player, but the 2021-22 All-Star fought left ankle injuries from the outset of the season and ultimately went down for good with a fracture to his right ankle on Feb. 27, totaling just 36 games for the year.
Rozier stepped up and led the team in total points, assists, free throws and threes. Though his efficiency suffered, the 28-year-old combo guard deserves recognition for providing shot creation and scoring to an offense that had little of both. A team built around Ball's orchestration had little chance to succeed without him, but Rozier did what he could to keep things running as smoothly as possible. When he was on the floor, Charlotte's offensive rating climbed by 4.3 points per 100 possessions, the best figure of any Hornets player to log at least 1,700 minutes.
DPOY: Dennis Smith Jr.
This could easily double as the Career Reclamation Award, as the No. 9 pick in the 2017 draft finally found a home after bouncing between four teams and being waived by the Portland Trail Blazers midway through last season.
Smith made his mark on D, where he leveraged the quick-twitch athleticism and elite strength that made him such a tantalizing offensive prospect to become one of the NBA's most fearsome shutdown guards. Though he ranks just seventh on the team in minutes played, he's first in total steals and sits among the league's top 10 in Defensive RAPTOR.
Credit the 25-year-old for realizing that defense—not ball-dominant scoring—was the key to restarting a career that seemed nearly over.
Best Newcomer: Mark Williams
The first thing you notice about rookie center Mark Williams is his size. In a league full of enormous humans, Williams, listed at 7'0" and 240 pounds, somehow still manages to stand out. The 21-year-old uses that stature and length to rate in the 84th percentile in block rate and the 88th percentile in steal rate among bigs.
Rarely do players with Williams' bulk also showcase such high energy levels. Whether soaring for lobs, playing quick-jump volleyball on the offensive glass or rolling hard to the bucket, Williams does everything at maximum intensity. It's hard to be especially valuable at center without offensive stretch or the quickness to switch on D, but Williams has a high ceiling as a conventional paint-bound big.
Stick With It Award: Nick Richards
The long-term success rate for 42nd picks isn't great, but Richards solidified his career and earned life-changing money by signing a three-year, $15 million extension with the Hornets on March 22. The backup center spent time developing on both ends in the G League across his first two seasons but began this year in the rotation and stayed there through Christmas.
Injury and Williams' emergence at the same position made for spottier playing time until February, when Richards again carved out a niche and averaged 19.1 minutes per game for the month.
Charlotte will try to forget its 2022-23 season, but for Richards it'll be a year worth remembering.
Chicago Bulls
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MVP: Zach LaVine
DeMar DeRozan has a case here, but LaVine's major edge as a three-point shooter separates him from his inside-the-arc counterpart. Thanks in part to impressive durability for a player with more than one significant knee operation in his medical history, LaVine surpassed 200 made triples for just the second time in his career.
For a Bulls team that ranks dead last in the league in three-point attempts per game, LaVine's sniping is exceptionally valuable. It's hard to imagine how suffocating offensive possessions would feel without his involvement as the only high-volume outside threat on the team.
LaVine also set new personal bests in total assists, rebounds, made free throws and minutes. He'll finish with the team lead in RPM.
DPOY: Alex Caruso
When on the ball, Caruso is as intimidating as any backcourt defender in the league. Quick, strong, mobile and always itching to strip the rock from anxious ball-handlers, he's one of those rare players who speeds up dribblers and forces mistakes just by being nearby.
No one with as many minutes has a higher rate of deflections than Caruso, and Chicago's defense is a whopping 6.6 points per 100 possessions stingier with him in the game. Caruso is first in the entire NBA in Defensive RAPTOR.
Best Newcomer: Dalen Terry
Patrick Beverley was a consideration here after he too-smalled LeBron James and continued his general Patrick Beverley-ness with more antics in that same game, but the veteran point guard who became an instant starter upon arrival kind of is what he is at this point. Better to focus instead on rookie guard Dalen Terry, who has barely played but showed intriguing flashes of two-way upside when on the floor.
Terry has great length at 6'7", which he uses to smother ball-handlers and go way out of his area for rebounds. A defense-first prospect, Terry also has playmaking chops and profiles as a glue-guy/connector type—something the Bulls need with Lonzo Ball's professional future so hazy. He's a long way away from regular rotation time, but Terry was basically alone as a promising prospect on an aging, expensive and underwhelming Bulls team.
Set Your Watch to Him Award: DeMar DeRozan
So much for 2021-22 being an outlier, unrepeatable, late-career anomaly for DeRozan. He's backing up last season's stellar numbers with more of the same in 2022-23, making the All-Star team again and producing on offense with metronomic consistency.
DeRozan is averaging about 2.5 fewer shots per game this season, but his percentages from two, three and the foul line are basically identical to last year's. Yet again, he's among the league's most accurate mid-range technicians, and just like last season, DeRozan is firing off more of those two-point jumpers than just about anyone else. His isolation scoring efficiency, which ranked in the 93rd percentile last season, is in the 88th this year.
Cleveland Cavaliers
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MVP: Donovan Mitchell
An All-Star, one of the season's most prolific clutch scorers and owner of his team's top Box Plus/Minus figure (among regulars) by more than a two-to-one ratio, Mitchell's first season with the Cleveland Cavaliers could hardly have gone better.
Everyone will remember the 71-point game, and Mitchell is going to set a new career high in scoring average. But he also deserves credit for renewing his focus on defense and adding a few extra hustle plays per game. Even if his efforts sometimes run afoul of the rules, it's hard to criticize a team's best player for also sometimes being its scrappiest.
DPOY: Jarrett Allen
Interior deterrence has been integral to the Cavs' top-three defense, and nobody has made opponents think twice at close range more often than Allen. Among players who've defended as many shots per game inside six feet as Allen, only Brook Lopez and Kristaps Porziņģis drive down conversion rates more effectively.
Allen doesn't top the Cavs in total blocks or steals, but he's the guy who guards centers and spends more time defending in the principal pick-and-roll action, which frees up Evan Mobley to roam around, cause trouble and lead both of those categories.
Biggest Surprise: Darius Garland
I'll admit it: Garland's awesome season wasn't really much of a surprise in light of last year's All-Star nod and the reels of tape that show he's one of the best offensive guards in the game. But maybe we can fudge this and say it's a big surprise that he didn't win some other team award. Otherwise, we won't get to talk about him, and that wouldn't be fair to him or the year he's had.
Mitchell is Cleveland's best player and will get more All-NBA consideration than anyone, but it's worth noting that some advanced catch-alls, like RAPTOR, view Garland as equally valuable. No Cavaliers player has had a more positive on-off impact on the team's net rating.
He'll finish the year within a couple of tenths of a point of last season's 21.7 points per game, though Garland has done so with improved efficiency. Barring a major slump over his final few contests, he'll set new highs in true shooting percentage and free-throw rate—all while cutting his turnovers.
This Is Your Last Chance Award: Evan Mobley
Climb aboard the Mobley bandwagon now, but know that only standing room remains. Wait any longer, and it'll be too late because Mobley's second season featured enough flashes and incremental improvements to make his ascent inevitable.
Though he doesn't profile as a scoring dynamo who'll get the Cavs 28 points per game any time soon, Mobley's defensive chops and blossoming offensive game will earn him plenty of All-Star and All-NBA spots, possibly starting as soon as next year.
Just look at the development as a distributer!
Mobley could have been Cleveland's DPOY this year, and he has every chance to be its best player by 2024—even with Mitchell still on the roster.
Dallas Mavericks
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MVP: Luka Dončić
Like Mitchell for the Cavs, Dončić is the easy pick here. Even if he's totally given up on defense and just kind of points at threats without doing anything to stop them in transition, you can't overstate the offensive value Dončić provides.
If ball dominance isn't your cup of tea, the Mavericks can be a tough watch. But Luka is going to become just the second player in NBA history to put up at least 30.0 points, 8.0 assists and 8.0 rebounds per game with a true shooting percentage north of 60.0. The only other player to pull that off was Michael Jordan, who did it as a 25-year-old in 1988-89. Dončić is only in his age-23 season.
DPOY: Maxi Kleber
We're picking from a batch of bad options without former Mav Dorian Finney-Smith on the board, but Kleber earns the nod for his versatility and status as the only Mavs big man you'd trust to defend the rim and not get embarrassed when guarding in space.
Even if he's lost a step in his age-31 season (and that torn right hamstring back in December didn't help), Kleber is probably Dallas' most reliable and versatile frontcourt defender. That's not saying much, and Kleber has had some brutal moments this season. But the Mavs don't perform well on D with virtually any combination of players this year, whether it's Kleber or Dwight Powell manning the center spot.
Best Newcomer: Kyrie Irving
It's true the Mavs are failing to maximize their two best players, but that's not really Irving's fault. He's missed time but essentially performed as expected when healthy, averaging 25.9 points per game on a 50.3/38.6/94.1 shooting split since coming over from the Nets.
It should concern the Mavs that committing to the notoriously uncommitted Irving on a hefty new deal is the best possible outcome (him walking away in free agency would be worse), but that's an organizational issue. All indications are that Irving hasn't been a problem. Combine that with his typically elite offensive work, and you've got a pretty clear winner here.
Overlooked Leap Award: Josh Green
Not quite rangy enough to be the true shutdown wing defender the Mavs need, Green made enough strides on offense in his third season to offer hope that he'll soon be a high-end two-way starter anyway.
Now a legitimate 40.0 percent three-point marksman, Green is also a sneaky cutter who excels at finding shooters when he draws attention in the lane. In fact, it's probably time to acknowledge Green is just a good passer from anywhere on the floor. His ability to make reads and connect the offense is vital to a team that is otherwise defined by one guy dribbling and four standing around.
Denver Nuggets
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MVP: Nikola Jokić
The MVP debate involving Jokić, Joel Embiid and Giannis Antetokounmpo will go down as one of this season's defining controversies, but there's no room for disagreement in a team-specific sense. Jokić remains the Denver Nuggets' singular driving force. Not only is he his team's leading scorer, rebounder and assist man, but Jokić's impact on Denver's net rating is greater than that of any player in the league.
The Nuggets post a net rating more than twice as high as that of the league-topping Boston Celtics when Jokić is on the floor, but they perform worse than the cellar-dwelling San Antonio Spurs when he sits.
DPOY/Best Newcomer: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
It's a real point of contention in the MVP discussion that Jokić grades out so well in advanced defensive metrics. The eye test and the fact that every opponent tries to involve him in its actions put the lie to Jokić's team-leading Defensive Box Plus/Minus and top-five status in Defensive RAPTOR.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope was the most consistent name mentioned as Denver's top defender by those who follow the team most closely, and his team-leading steal total offers corroboration. A bit undersized to tangle with the league's most dangerous wing scorers, KCP is still tough as nails against guards. Great hands, excellent screen navigation and a low foul rate—especially for someone as greedy swiping at the ball as Caldwell-Pope is—combine to make KCP's case a strong one.
Denver missed Monte Morris' game management at times this season, but it handily won the trade that sent Morris and Will Barton to the Washington Wizards for KCP, who also brought along a 42.0 percent long-range stroke with his defensive excellence.
Aging Gracefully Award: Jeff Green
We should all hope to age as well as Green, who at 36 has more dunks in fewer games than he did as a springy 24-year-old a dozen seasons ago.
Some extra context for fun: Green may only finish a handful of slams short of his rookie total when he logged 52 dunks with the Seattle SuperSonics, a team that hasn't existed since 2008.
Detroit Pistons
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MVP: Bojan Bogdanović
An Achilles injury ended Bogdanović's season on March 1, but he still came extremely close to piling up more Estimated Wins Added (via Dunks and Threes) than his next two closest teammates...combined. That says as much about the dearth of talent on the Detroit Pistons roster as it does about the 33-year-old forward's production, but it still makes this MVP decision an easy one.
Bogdanović averaged a career-high 21.6 points per game while posting a 62.7 true shooting percentage that also bettered anything he'd done in the past. For reference, only 10 players in the league are on pace to match or beat both his scoring average and true shooting percentage this season.
DPOY: Hamidou Diallo
Diallo made real advancements on offense in his age-24 season, ranking above the 50th percentile in points per shot attempt for the first time in his career and finishing just over three quarters of his attempts at the rim. That's all encouraging, but the fast-twitch wing is still defined by his defense.
Diallo is the only Pistons player with over 200 minutes played to post a positive Defensive Box Plus/Minus, and he graded out brilliantly in block, steal and rebound rate at his position. He doesn't get credit for it here, but Diallo's 97th percentile ranking in offensive rebound rate helps convey how his relentless energy and athleticism impact the game.
Best Newcomer: Jaden Ivey
Growing pains were always going to be part of Ivey's rookie experience, and he endured plenty of them as he adjusted to the speed of the NBA game and struggled to downshift from fifth gear, which was all he needed in college. The hyper-athletic point guard looked more comfortable beyond the arc after the break and will finish near the top 10 percent in assist rate at his position—positive signs in a difficult year.
Ivey has miles to go defensively, and his shooting struggles allow defenders to sag off and anticipate his drives. Still, the bursts of speed and bounce tantalized. Detroit has reason to believe it made the right choice with the No. 5 pick in the 2022 draft.
Don't Close the Book Just Yet Award: Killian Hayes
Hayes remains arguably the worst shooter in the league. He's dead last in true shooting percentage among players who've attempted at least 700 shots, and the second-worst, Dillon Brooks, is nowhere close to "catching" him. Even with that glaring flaw, Hayes showed enough growth as a decision-maker and defender to suggest he might not be a lost cause.
He'll never be a key piece on a winning team if his shooting doesn't improve, but the lefty point guard will finish out his third year on an extremely short list of players with at least 400 assists and 100 steals this season.
Golden State Warriors
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MVP: Stephen Curry
His on-off splits haven't been as dramatic as in years past, but that's only because Curry set the bar so high. He ranks in the 90th percentile in positive net rating boost when on the floor which, hilariously, is his worst percentile figure in a full season since 2010-11.
He'll likely fall a handful of solid shooting nights short of securing his second career 50/40/90 season, but for most of the year, Curry was also within striking distance of more impressive history. If he'd bumped his scoring average up a tad to clear 30.0 points per game, he'd have posted just the second ever 50/40/90 season with a scoring average that high.
He's also the guy who did it the first (and only) time.
Curry will be the Warriors' only All-NBA representative, and he might even land on the first team if voters don't ding him too severely for a pair of multigame absences due to shoulder and knee injuries.
DPOY: Draymond Green
Perhaps the most versatile defender the league has ever seen, Green, 33, is still winning games with his intelligence, length and strength. The runaway team leader in DEPM and Defensive RAPTOR, Green also tops the Warriors in total blocks, charges drawn and shutdown sequences against superstars.
He won't win Defensive Player of the Year, and Golden State has mostly disappointed on that end of the floor. But if you were picking one player around whom to build a playoff defense, it might still be Green.
Best Newcomer: Donte DiVincenzo
Warriors fans had better enjoy the DiVincenzo experience while it lasts. The shooting guard's performance will earn him a free-agency payoff the taxed-out Dubs probably won't be willing to equal when he inevitably declines his $4.7 million player option for 2023-24.
Head coach Steve Kerr has certainly appreciated the ride.
On the off chance DiVincenzo returns, Golden State will gladly welcome his disruptive off-ball defense, elite rebounding for a guard and career-best three-point shooting. With Andrew Wiggins missing so much time, Klay Thompson slipping on D and Gary Payton II only recently returning, DiVincenzo filled a glaring defensive void on the wing. His effort never wavered, and there were several instances in which his hustle changed the course of games.
It's Good To Have You Back Award: Klay Thompson
He's not the high-end wing stopper he was prior to injury, and close watchers will note that he misses more shots short than ever before. But Thompson is owed a heap of praise for putting together a full season of vintage Splash Brother offense. All but a certainty to finish with the most made threes in the league, Thompson has his deep-shot accuracy back up above 40.0 percent after slipping below that mark for the first time in his career last season.
He's also shown the same ability to go on unquenchable heaters. Thompson is responsible for a league-high four of the 14 games this year in which a player made at least 10 triples.
Houston Rockets
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MVP: Alperen Sengün
There aren't many win shares to go around, but Sengün has more of them than anybody else on the Houston Rockets. He's also tops on the team (among regulars) in Player Efficiency Rating, RAPTOR Wins Above Replacement and Estimated Plus/Minus. Probably the best passer on the team, the 6'9" center is one of the few Rockets players who seems to understand that it's OK to get rid of the ball without dribbling 50 times, and that not every pass has to lead to an assist.
That's not to say Sengün is averse to highlight dimes. If his current numbers hold, he'll become the first 20-year-old center to finish a season with an assist rate above 20.0 percent. Basic basketball IQ and team-first thinking is in short supply with these Rockets, but Sengün's crafty post game and vision make him the team's most logical offensive hub.
DPOY: Tari Eason
Sixth in total minutes but first on the team in steals and deflections, Eason plays defense as if the team in possession of the ball has no right to it. It's like they're just borrowing it until he takes it back. Eason is in the 93rd and 98th percentile among forwards in block and steal rate, respectively. He's really slacking on the defensive glass, though, where he's only in the 90th percentile.
Remarkably energetic—which is a hard thing to be on a team that loses as much as Houston—the rookie forward has probably displayed more traits you could imagine on a winner than any other Rockets player this season.
Best Newcomer: Jabari Smith Jr.
Smith couldn't buy a bucket in the early part of the year, and he's still going to finish with one of the least efficient high-volume shooting seasons by a rookie in the last decade. But the No. 3 pick shot the ball better after the All-Star break and flashed some intriguing defensive upside, playing center in units that actually kept opposing offenses in check.
It's possible Eason slotting at the 4 in the most used version of Smith-at-5 configurations had something to do with that, but the point stands: Smith has upside on both ends. Forget what happened between October and January, and there's plenty of room for hope here.
Look Out Below Award: Kenyon Martin Jr.
Martin has more dunks than all but six other players in the league, but he's near the top of a list that is otherwise populated by towering centers and a back-cutting, Jokić-fed power forward named Aaron Gordon. Oklahoma City Thunder rookie Jalen Williams is second to Martin in dunks among players 6'6" or shorter, and he's not even halfway to Martin's total on the year.
It's been a dispiriting year in Houston, but Martin's high-wire slams have injected welcome instances of joy.
Indiana Pacers
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MVP: Tyrese Haliburton
Domantas Sabonis was integral to ending the Sacramento Kings' playoff drought, so they may never regret the trade that sent Tyrese Haliburton to the Indiana Pacers for him. Indy is also perfectly happy with its 23-year-old All-Star floor general, and it should be even more optimistic about what's ahead.
Haliburton erupted in his third season and is unbelievably close to concluding it as the first player to ever average at least 20.0 points and 10.0 assists while shooting 40.0 percent from long range. Exceptional vision, shotmaking and unselfishness make Haliburton one of the most promising young guards in the game. He'll make a handful of All-NBA teams before it's all said and done.
DPOY: Myles Turner
Turner upped his usage rate and shot the ball more than ever in his first full season without Sabonis at his side since 2016-17. Fortunately for the Pacers, Turner's expanded offensive role didn't detract too much from his work on the other end. The 26-year-old slots in the 94th percentile among bigs in block rate and is on pace to post a defensive rebound rate above 20.0 percent for the first time in his career.
He leads Indiana players (with over 1,000 minutes) in Defensive Box Plus/Minus and is one of just five players to average over 9.0 contested two-point shots per game.
Best Newcomer: Bennedict Mathurin
The No. 6 pick in the 2022 draft started out his rookie season looking like a generational scoring talent. At the end of November, Mathurin was averaging 19.2 points per game, shooting 40.3 percent on 5.7 three-point attempts per game and getting to the line 6.1 times in only 28.0 minutes.
Those numbers all dipped as the season progressed, and Mathurin now profiles as a bench spark rather than a potential scoring champion. But his ability to attack the basket and draw contact is legit. He's going to pile up free throws at high rates for a long time, and any growth as a passer or defender could result in Mathurin becoming a high-end starter down the line.
Rocky IV Award: Rick Carlisle
Remember when Rocky Balboa ended the Cold War in 1985? He did it partly by knocking out a Swedish guy pretending to be a Russian guy, but mostly with his post-fight claim about acceptance and open-mindedness. He got a standing ovation from basically the entire Kremlin when he said, "If I can change, and you can change, everybody can change!"
Geopolitical ramifications aside, this applies perfectly to head coach Rick Carlisle, who officially proved his willingness to embrace free-flowing, uptempo basketball after years of plodding, stodgy, "I'm calling out every half-court set" offense with the Dallas Mavericks.
Indiana is adding the most points per 100 possessions via transition play and is running with the third-highest frequency in the league. Everybody can change!
Los Angeles Clippers
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MVP: Kawhi Leonard
Paul George will finish the season with more minutes and games played than Leonard, but those edges in volume don't outweigh the dominance Leonard showed on a play-to-play basis. Plus, Leonard was available consistently after Dec. 5 and only sat out a handful of games that weren't on one end of a back-to-back set after that point. He's going to finish among the Los Angeles Clippers' top five in minutes played.
At 31, Leonard remains one of the most unstoppable offensive forces around. His strength, patience and refusal to allow any wasted movement in his game produced results that look strikingly similar to his last healthy year in 2020-21. Leonard is right on the cusp of his first 50/40 season since 2015-16, when he finished second in MVP voting.
The team leader in BPM, EPM, RAPTOR and positive on-off differential, Leonard used this season to reestablish himself as one of the most complete, productive players in the entire league.
DPOY: Ivica Zubac
He won't achieve his preseason goal of making an All-Defensive team, and certain small-ball matchups gave him trouble. But Zubac gets this nod because his interior presence is integral to controlling the defensive glass and preventing opposing layup parades. Opponents get offensive boards 5.6 percent less frequently with him in the game, a swing that ranks in the 98th percentile. Zubac's impact on rim protection was even more significant: Teams got 6.3 percent fewer point-blank looks with him on the floor, good for a 99th percentile ranking.
Leonard and George may still be the most talented defenders on the roster, and Terance Mann brings the effort. But on a team without much interior heft, Zubac's presence loomed large on D.
Biggest Surprise: Bones Hyland
As in...Bones Hyland is on this team? Really?
In one sense, it's kind of perfect that Hyland is now playing for a franchise that has enjoyed the quick-trigger bench scoring of Sixth Man mainstays like Lou Williams and Jamal Crawford. Hyland's bucket-hungry style makes him a solid descendent in that line of players. But it's also still jarring to see the 2021-22 All-Rookie second-teamer wearing a Clippers jersey in his sophomore season. His abrupt deadline move from Denver, where he looked to be a key rotation piece during the preseason, should raise concerns about his approach and attitude. But the scoring touch is real, and L.A. knows better than most how to get the best out of guys with that skill.
Glue Guy Award: Nicolas Batum
In the final two weeks of the season, Batum finally seized the starting power forward spot from Marcus Morris Sr.
It should have happened sooner.
A 40.0 percent three-point shooter for the third year in a row, a willing ball-mover and still a rangy and versatile defender, Batum makes the connective plays so few other Clippers provide. He's going to pass up open shots more often than most, and Batum probably can't be counted on to play more than 20-25 minutes at age 34. But his steady work on the margins makes him indispensable.
Los Angeles Lakers
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MVP: LeBron James
This was a real tossup between James and Anthony Davis, who'll finish with similar minutes and games played totals while essentially splitting narrow advantages against one another in various catch-all metrics. Both are in line to finish among the top 10 in ESPN's RPM, so there's not really a wrong answer here.
Ultimately, James' impact on offense felt more profound than Davis' value to the defense over the course of the year. Even that's debatable if you only care about the bottom line. The Lakers are 13-14 when James is out and 12-14 when Davis is unavailable.
We'll go with LeBron and his team lead in total points, if only because Davis is a shoo-in for the next award.
DPOY: Anthony Davis
Jaren Jackson Jr. and Brook Lopez will battle it out for leaguewide DPOY honors, but Davis would have featured more prominently in that discussion if he hadn't missed more time than either of those dominant big men.
AD's presence on the floor coincides with a spike in opponent mid-range attempts, good evidence of his deterrent effect at the rim. He also sits just outside the top 10 in DEPM and boosts the Lakers' defensive rating by 7.2 points per 100 possessions, a 94th-percentile figure.
Biggest Surprise: Austin Reaves
Reaves trails only James and Davis in Lakers RAPTOR and his 67.4 true shooting percentage is eighth in the league (and best among non-centers and non-Kevin Durants) among players with at least 400 shot attempts. A late surge as a playmaker and on-ball scoring threat has Reaves, still just in his second season after going undrafted, looking at the possibility of a $50 million free-agency payout this summer. Not bad.
Who Even Are You? Award: Rob Pelinka
Lakers GM Rob Pelinka has the Jekyll and Hyde routine down pat. He toggles between monstrous, franchise-crippling transactions and brilliant, season-salvaging ones.
The latest, which sent out Russell Westbrook and brought back Jarred Vanderbilt, Malik Beasley and D'Angelo Russell, was one of the good ones. But its success stands in stark contrast to the failure of the original Westbrook swap in July 2021. Go back further and you can compare trading Ivica Zubac for Mike Muscala (bad) to the original AD acquisition (good). Or the bizarre decision to deal away Danny Green and the pick that became Jaden McDaniels for Dennis Schröder (bad) with...well, you get the idea.
Anything and everything is possible when Pelinka puts in a call to a trade partner.
Memphis Grizzlies
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MVP: Ja Morant
The early season leap in three-point accuracy didn't last, but Morant made strides in several other areas en route to his second successive All-Star campaign.
He's on pace to finish with the highest assist percentage (41.1) and lowest turnover rate (12.3 percent) of his career while also upping his free-throw rate significantly. Dips in two- and three-point accuracy matter a lot less when you're getting to the foul line more often than any small guard outside of Damian Lillard.
Morant's eight-game suspension for posting a video of himself waving a gun in a nightclub on social media wasn't ideal, but his MVP-worthy production—team lead
Morant's eight-game suspension for posting a video of himself waving a gun in a nightclub on social media wasn't ideal, but his MVP-worthy production—team lead in BPM, total points, and total assists—makes him the clear selection here.
DPOY: Jaren Jackson Jr.
Jackson is unlikely to finish worse than second in NBA DPOY voting, so he runs away with this award for the Grizzlies. No interior defender who has covered at least 6.0 shots per game inside six feet has suppressed opponent accuracy better than Jackson, who's on pace to lead the league in blocks per game for the second year in a row.
Jackson's mobility means he's not just a deterrent around the rim, either. Opponents also shoot the ball far worse on short and long mid-rangers when he's in the game.
Biggest Surprise: Desmond Bane
Bane might have been an All-Star if he'd played more than 35 games before the break and if the West wasn't overstuffed with quality at the guard position. That said, it's not really surprising that the 24-year-old shooting guard added a few points to his scoring average and will finish above 40.0 percent from deep for the third straight year. Those developments were foreseeable.
Bane, though, has already blown past last year's assist total in far fewer games and is showcasing real growth as a shot-creator on the ball. He's running pick-and-rolls 3.5 times per game, producing 0.92 points per possession in those sets. In 2021-22, those numbers were just 2.4 and .77, respectively.
Getting better is one thing. Adding entirely new dimensions, which Bane has, is another.
All the Smoke Award: Dillon Brooks
We can't ignore one of the defining stories of the 2022-23 season: Brooks' relentless antagonism of Draymond Green and the Warriors. Let it never be said that Brooks is unwilling to stick his nose (and entire face) into another team's business.
Memphis defines itself by defiance, and Brooks is the leader of the pack in that regard.
Miami Heat
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MVP: Jimmy Butler
Wrongfully left off the All-Star roster, Butler is wrapping up perhaps the best season of his stellar career and will wind up outperforming several players who beat him out for a spot on the league's annual midseason exhibition.
The 33-year-old currently sports a 64.3 true shooting percentage, bonkers for a player who attempts fewer than two triples per game. Butler is seventh in the league in FiveThirtyEight's RAPTOR and fourth in Dunks & Threes EPM. He's Miami's leader in average points, steals and free-throw attempts per game, and he remains one of the most brutally effective perimeter defenders around.
If there's any justice, voters will rectify their All-Star mistake by giving Butler the All-NBA berth he deserves.
DPOY: Bam Adebayo
Arguably the best switch-defending center in the league, Adebayo does just about everything well on D except protect the rim. He makes up for that by consistently ranking among the best at his position in steal rate.
Even if Adebayo's not much of a shot-blocker, opponents get to the rim less frequently when he's in the game. And it's hard to overstate the value of a center who can shut down an All-Star point guard on the perimeter.
Biggest Surprise: Tyler Herro
The Heat have been starving for offense all year, but Herro is going to finish with nearly 100 fewer field-goal attempts and 50 fewer free-throw tries than he did last season, despite playing more games and minutes. That's...strange.
Herro is an extremely aggressive offensive player and one of the few Heat regulars capable of generating his own looks. With Kyle Lowry missing time and virtually everyone else on the roster shooting the ball worse than last year, Herro was in prime position to fire away.
Maybe it's a sign of growth that he didn't turn into a chucker, even when Miami may have needed someone to fire away with abandon. Or, less encouragingly, Herro's small step back might suggest he's simply not cut out for more than a tertiary role.
Make or Miss League Award: The Whole Team
Miami has spent most of the year among the bottom half-dozen teams in offensive efficiency and will enter the playoffs with the worst-rated attack of any team involved. Last year, the Heat were a respectable 12th in offensive rating. The difference: three-point shooting.
Despite bringing back seven of their top eight players in total long-range attempts (P.J. Tucker got away), Miami has gone from first to 27th in three-point hit rate in a 12-month span. Every cliche has a ring of truth, but the one that proclaims the NBA a make-or-miss league feels especially apt here.
Milwaukee Bucks
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MVP: Giannis Antetokounmpo
It seems as if Joel Embiid and Nikola Jokić have shoved Antetokounmpo out of serious consideration for his third MVP award, and teammate Brook Lopez will likely prevent him from securing a second DPOY.
Oh well, I guess Giannis will have to settle for team MVP honors and the first season with averages of at least 30.0 points, 11.0 rebounds and 5.0 assists since Kareem Abdul-Jabbar did it in 1972-73. What a letdown, right?
DPOY: Brook Lopez
Lopez is the best high-volume shot-alterer in the league, holding opponents to the lowest hit rate inside six feet of any player who defends at least 7.0 such shots per game and contesting almost twice as many total two-point shots as his next-closest competition in that stat, Utah Jazz rookie Walker Kessler.
Milwaukee's defense is loaded with quality pieces, but no rotation player's minutes coincide with a bigger dip in opponent scoring efficiency than Lopez's. When Milwaukee's hulking center is on the floor, the rim is off limits and even two-point jumpers are iffy propositions. If he wins the real-deal DPOY, it'll be well-deserved and mark one of the more impressive career evolutions in recent memory. It wasn't so long ago that Lopez was a paint-bound, offense-only big man.
Now, he's arguably the most impactful defender on the planet.
Biggest (Non)Surprise: Joe Ingles
Specifically, Joe Ingles' inevitable development of mind-meld pick-and-roll chemistry with Lopez is this team's (non)surprise of the season.
The going was rough early on, as Ingles, a brilliant PnR operator during his time with the Jazz, struggled to reprogram himself after years of lobbing the ball to a diving Rudy Gobert. Once Ingles learned Lopez's preferences, the Bucks had a lights-out attack option that didn't involve Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton or Jrue Holiday. That could be a hugely valuable wrinkle in their playoff plans.
Worth the Wait Award: Jrue Holiday
The first time Holiday made an All-Star roster, Barack Obama was president, moviegoers only had the faintest idea of who Thanos was and nobody was sure an injury-prone Stephen Curry's four-year, $44 million rookie extension was going to turn out well.
The second time Holiday made an All-Star roster was...this past February. That nine-season gap is the longest between All-Star nods in NBA history—one Holiday, perhaps the best defensive guard in the league across that span, probably shouldn't have had to endure.
Minnesota Timberwolves
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MVP: Anthony Edwards
Edwards' march toward superstardom continues apace. Year 3 included the 21-year-old guard's first All-Star trip, another boost in scoring to 24.4 points per game and upticks in assists, rebounds, steals, blocks and free-throw attempts. He's on pace to become the fifth player aged 21 or younger to average at least 24.0 points, 5.0 rebounds and 4.0 assists in NBA history.
The other four—Michael Jordan, Tracy McGrady, LeBron James and Luka Dončić—turned out all right.
DPOY: Rudy Gobert
Gobert still fumbles too many balls out of bounds and clogs the lane in ways that shrink Edwards' attack angles, but the big man mostly delivered on the defensive promise that spurred ownership to lay out a mountain of draft capital and young talent to get him.
With Gobert on the floor, Minnesota defends at a clip that would rank right near the top of the league. And while he hasn't been quite as stifling at the basket as in years past (career-low 72nd percentile among bigs in block rate), Gobert is still a fearsome defensive rebounder and shot-alterer. The rate at which he drives down opponent field-goal attempts at the rim ranks in the 100th percentile. It's hard to do better than that.
Best Newcomer: Kyle Anderson
Steady playmaking from a forward spot and an important role in a Wolves defense that should finish inside the top 10 put Anderson on the short lists of the offseason's best signings. He ranks third on the team in blocks, second in steals and third in assists.
Perhaps most importantly, Anderson's career-best 41.8 percent shooting from deep made him playable alongside the non-spacing Gobert, a vital development with Karl-Anthony Towns missing so much time because of injury.
Keep an Eye on Him Award: Jaden McDaniels
Everybody can appreciate Edwards' star turn and the bright future ahead of him. He's going to get his max extension from the Wolves without any hesitation this offseason. But McDaniels can sign a contract extension this summer, too, and the signs he's shown of potential two-way stardom could earn him his own nine-figure payout.
Already known for his excellent defensive work, the willowy 22-year-old forward leveled up this season. He took on the toughest challenges and put together a highlight reel of dominant efforts against the league's best scorers.
Long, mobile and highly competitive, McDaniels is also shooting 39.1 percent from three and deserves serious All-Defense consideration. And after that, a $100 million deal.
New Orleans Pelicans
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MVP: Zion Williamson
Williamson played just under 1,000 minutes prior to suffering the hamstring injury that shelved him on Jan. 2, which is pretty comfortably the least playing time of anyone we even remotely considered for a team MVP award. But when you consider the New Orleans Pelicans were 23-14 with the fourth-best net rating in the league when he went down and have one of the NBA's worst records since, there's really no other option.
With averages of 26.0 points, 7.0 rebounds and 4.6 assists per game to go along with 60.8 percent shooting from the field, Williamson reaffirmed his status as one of the most overwhelmingly productive and efficient players in the game. And then he reaffirmed his status as one of the biggest injury risks in the sport.
Nothing about Zion's health outlook is certain, but there are no questions about his excellence when fit.
DPOY: Herb Jones
Many hands have been wrung over Jones' slippage in value during his second season, but the concern has nothing to do with his defensive performance. Jones isn't hitting threes at passable rates and is therefore getting ignored off the ball, but he's just as big of a terror on D as he was in 2021-22.
Jones leads New Orleans in DEPM and Defensive RAPTOR (among players with 1,000 minutes), is still posting elite block and steal rates and is actually averaging more deflections per game this year (3.4) than last (3.1). If he can just get that jumper to fall, Jones will once again look like one of the most valuable three-and-D forwards in the game.
Best Newcomer: Dyson Daniels
Daniels is in a dead heat with Jones in Defensive RAPTOR, and the 6'8" rookie boasts better rebounding and offensive potential than the man who made the All-Rookie second team last year.
Questions about Daniels' shooting are legit, but he also comes with a much more developed on-ball game and projects as a hugely valuable oversized point guard. He has excellent instincts on both ends and is four-and-a-half years younger than Jones. If last year's rookie surprise doesn't pan out for the Pelicans, this one's will.
Look out Below Award: Trey Murphy III
There aren't many players who do damage from near and far like Murphy, who stripes it from deep at a 40.7 percent clip and can elevate to throw down contest-worthy dunks at close range.
The second-youngest player to hit at least 10 threes in a game, Murphy forces defenders to sprint at him when he sets up for shots well behind the arc. From there, his quick first step and hellacious bounce lead to high-flying highlights. It's a perfect skill combination—one Murphy employed to great effect in a standout second season.
New York Knicks
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MVP: Julius Randle
This could have gone to Jalen Brunson, who deserves credit for being an organizer and late-game bailout offensive option during his first season with the New York Knicks. Brunson and Randle, who comes away with a coin-flip win here, are neck and neck in BPM and win shares, and while one leads in RAPTOR, the other has the EPM edge. Ultimately, Randle gets a boost for playing 400 more minutes than Brunson prior to his ankle injury—not to mention his ownership of the team lead in total points, rebounds, free throws and threes.
Randle was a worthy All-NBA selection in 2020-21 and totally flopped last season. Now, he's a good bet to make All-NBA again in one of the better redemption stories of the year.
DPOY: Mitchell Robinson
Immanuel Quickley is impossible to screen, has hilariously active hands and can make life hell on his man with relentless ball denials. But we have to go with Robinson because his role as the anchor of New York's defense is just more central to the whole operation.
Even if Robinson is uninspired by his offensive role, the four-year, $60 million deal New York gave him this past summer looks like a win. He blocks shots at a top-10-percent clip for his position and has looked more comfortable in space. His foul frequency—long a problem—is down to 3.7 per 36 minutes, his lowest figure in any season with at least 50 games played.
Best Newcomer: Jalen Brunson
It's no MVP award, but this'll have to do for Brunson. Considering he might have been the best offseason pickup in the entire league, Brunson walking away with this honor should have been a foregone conclusion.
In addition to running a Knicks offense that ranks higher than any in the past 20 years, the lefty guard is also among the top five in total clutch points.
Immediate Fan Adoration Award: Josh Hart
Brunson knew what the Knicks were getting before anyone else, and his elated reaction to the team's acquisition of Hart quickly spread. In no time at all, the hustling, rebound-hoarding, transition-finishing wing was a fan favorite. It was as if Hart was born to play for the Knicks.
Check back again after free agency to see if that remains the case. You never know with these things...
Oklahoma City Thunder
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MVP: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
If you're of the opinion that making the good-to-great leap is more meaningful than the climb from solid to good, SGA deserves this year's Most Improved Player honor. With apologies to Lauri Markkanen, who became an All-Star for the first time, Gilgeous-Alexander proved himself to be a first-option leader on offense and spent significant time in the MVP conversation. That just matters more.
There's no competition on the Oklahoma City Thunder roster for this spot. SGA runs away with it on the strength of a 31.4 points-per-game scoring average, the slipperiest handle you could ever hope to see and superb foul-drawing craft. The NBA leader in drives per game for the third year in a row, Gilgeous-Alexander is the hardest player in the league to stay in front of.
DPOY: Luguentz Dort
Shout out to Jaylin Williams, the NBA's preeminent charge-taker despite playing fewer than 900 minutes on the year. But the rookie big man isn't going to take this award from Dort, a set of human vice grips. Neither is SGA, even if the Thunder's best offensive player showed improved focus on D this season and leads the team in blocks and steals.
Dort is just too physically overwhelming to deny. He's the guy OKC puts on the top opposing scoring threat, and he's the rare wing stopper who can make even the league's most decorated isolation stars panic a little. There's a reason Dort's five-year, $82.5 million contract feels fair, even as he nears his third season (out of four) shooting under 40.0 percent from the field.
Best Newcomer: Jalen Williams
Paolo Banchero is probably going to win top rookie honors this season, but Williams is surging to the finish and is just as likely to become a star down the line. The 6'6" guard with a 7'2" wingspan, solid handle, keen passing eye, sweet shot and, well...pretty much everything else you'd want in a prospect could become a major contributor in any number of ways. His floor is that of a terrific three-and-D wing, but don't rule out the possibility he'll develop into an oversized first-option playmaker, elite spot-up threat, unstoppable paint attacker or some combo of all three.
Since the All-Star break, Williams is averaging 19.5 points, 5.8 rebounds and 4.5 assists with a 65.4 true shooting percentage.
Highlight Waiting to Happen Award: Josh Giddey
If you type in the search terms "Giddey dime," the results are a little overwhelming. That's because the Aussie sophomore is good for at least a couple of eye-popping setups every night.
In his age-20 season, Giddey is on pace to be just the fourth player that young to average at least 16.0 points, 7.0 rebounds and 6.0 assists.
Orlando Magic
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MVP: Franz Wagner
Paolo Banchero has the top-pick pedigree and the makings of a first-option offensive catalyst, but he's just objectively not as good as the Orlando Magic's top selection from the 2022 draft. For now.
Wagner leads Orlando in total minutes, points and made triples, and he ranks second in assists and steals. Forceful, slaloming drives define Wagner's game, and he's learned how to better utilize his sturdy 6'10" frame when attacking in his second season. He lacks the variety of moves and overall smoothness Banchero displays, but the ball simply goes in more often for Wagner. Improved three-point shooting and more free-throw attempts contribute to Wagner's team lead in virtually every catch-all metric.
DPOY: Jalen Suggs
Markelle Fultz has played significantly more minutes, Bol Bol leads the team in blocks by a mile and Wendell Carter Jr. has no problem switching onto dangerous wings. But Suggs is Orlando's most intense and disruptive defender. A big fan of full-court pressure, Suggs delights in speeding up opposing guards. He ranks in the 95th percentile in steal rate and the 90th in block rate at his position, and the 21-year-old has excellent timing and anticipation away from the ball.
It's a good thing Suggs has established himself as such a potent weapon on D, as he remains one of the worst offensive guards in the league.
Best Newcomer: Paolo Banchero
The ball hasn't gone in often enough for Banchero, but that's a results-focused concern. The rookie's process is sound, and the smart money is still on him becoming one of the game's most complete scoring forwards. Besides, high-volume scorers in their age-20 seasons almost always struggle with efficiency.
Much has been made of Banchero's iffy jumper, but he's right in the middle of the historical pack in true shooting percentage among players 20 or younger with at least 1,000 shot attempts.
Everything's Going to Be Fine Award: Markelle Fultz
Fultz started his career with loads of missed games, a concerning shoulder injury and brutal shooting. For a while there, it seemed like the No. 1 pick in 2017 might wash out entirely. Even his 72-game effort in 2019-20 with Orlando lost some luster when he suffered a knee injury and played just 26 games across the next two years.
Good news: Fultz is closing out the best season of his career, marked by stellar defense and capable, starting-caliber offensive work on the other end. The threes aren't falling, but Fultz is still a good bet to finish the season shooting over 50.0 percent from the field. Considering all the time he missed, Fultz is still relatively inexperienced. But he has great feel and should be lauded for his resilience. There's a real chance he has more growth in him.
Philadelphia 76ers
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MVP/DPOY: Joel Embiid
Considering he's the league's leading scorer and a central figure in one of the most contentious MVP debates in memory, Embiid's credentials as his team's best player need very little attention. If anything, we should spend time appreciating the tactical tweak that has not only maximized Embiid's offensive game but has also opened up his team's attack.
Once a roll man and post-up threat, Embiid now operates more around the elbows. In space, his face-up shooting is deadlier, he's one dribble away from a hard drive or spin and opponents have a much harder time sending double teams without paying the price. Embiid's brilliant triple-threat work at the nail makes him as much Kobe Bryant as Hakeem Olajuwon.
A couple of Philadelphia 76ers have decent claims to DPOY, with De'Anthony Melton probably owning the best argument. But Melton's lead over Embiid in DEPM is smaller than the edge Embiid has over him in Defensive RAPTOR. And besides, Embiid's role as an anchor in the middle is just harder and more important than Melton's on the perimeter. Now that Matisse Thybulle is gone, Embiid has the most positive on-off influence on Philly's defensive rating. That seals the deal.
Best Newcomer: De'Anthony Melton
P.J. Tucker was the more notable offseason get, but the 37-year-old forward just hasn't put his imprint on this year's Sixers team like Melton has. For the vast majority of Tucker's time on the floor, you don't notice him. That's not the case with Melton, who leads the league in total steals and blew past his previous career high in made threes on March 20.
Melton is particularly valuable on this roster, because he doesn't need the ball in his hands. He also fills a critical role as a backcourt defender who pairs well with either James Harden or Tyrese Maxey.
Never Back Down Award: Georges Niang
Niang is one of the league's more prolific, under-the-radar trash talkers, which doesn't quite fit with a role player whose no-frills, utilitarian game earned him the nickname "minivan". Among his highlights this year was a glorious stinkface he unleashed after scoring a bucket in the general vicinity of Kevin Durant.
Extreme confidence is only one of the elements necessary to win a championship. Niang has that covered.
Phoenix Suns
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MVP: Devin Booker
A sneakily incendiary month of March has Booker kicking down the door for an All-NBA nod. Whether he earns one or not, the high-scoring guard's bucket-getting acumen has been vital to a Suns team that never saw Jae Crowder take the floor, lost Cam Johnson to injury, dealt away Johnson and Mikal Bridges and then got just three games from Kevin Durant during his first 46 days with the team.
Booker will finish this year with the highest scoring average and field-goal percentage of his career. With him on the floor, Phoenix scores at a league-best rate. When Booker is out of action, the Suns put up an offensive rating that'd rank down around the inept attacks of San Antonio and Charlotte.
DPOY: Josh Okogie
Okogie makes a mess of things every time he takes the floor. Take that as the high compliment it's intended to be, and please appreciate the hustle and energy below.
If the video evidence doesn't do it for you, note that Okogie actually leads all Suns (who've been on the team for the full year) in overall RAPTOR, because his Defensive RAPTOR score is one of the five highest in the entire league.
Best Newcomer: Kevin Durant
The sample is small, but unless the Suns added another top-20 all-time player that we forgot about this season, Durant seems like the best pick.
Those first three games prior to the ankle sprain showed Durant would have no trouble fitting in. Those games also put the rest of the league on notice that a fully healthy Phoenix squad might deserve to reside next to the Nuggets in the West's top tier of playoff threats.
Age-Group-Adjusted Award: Chris Paul
This season will mark the first time Paul has posted a true shooting percentage below the league average since 2006-07. That's a solid indication of decline, but players in their 18th season aren't supposed to keep getting better—or even stay the same. That Paul has remained a hugely valuable piece of Phoenix's operation at the age of 37, even with his efficiency slippage, is a borderline miracle.
Here's a quick list of players who've averaged at least 13.0 points and 9.0 assists during or after their age-37 season: Chris Paul, 2022-23.
That's it.
Portland Trail Blazers
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MVP: Damian Lillard
Even with the late-season shutdown limiting him to 58 games, an All-NBA nod should be in the cards for Lillard, who just completed perhaps the best season of his Hall of Fame career.
Dame set new career highs with 32.2 points per game and a 64.5 true shooting percentage, a volume-efficiency two-step that Stephen Curry has achieved once, Joel Embiid might pull off this year and...that's it. New gains in foul-drawing craft and more three-point attempts per game than ever produced the most dangerous version of Lillard we've seen.
DPOY: N/A
We only use one of these, but the Blazers were the easy "let's just skip them for this category" pick because their best defenders—Matisse Thybulle, Gary Payton II and Josh Hart—have either played too little for consideration or left the team entirely.
Jusuf Nurkić has the best DEPM of any Blazer with at least 1,000 minutes, but his immobility and crummy rim protection are a major reason why Portland is going to finish with a bottom-five defensive rating for the fourth year in a row.
Biggest Surprise: Jerami Grant
Now that we're in the final few days of a regular season that saw Grant fail to make a defensive impact and grade out as the second-best player on a lottery team, who's feeling good about giving him upwards of $30 million per season in free agency?
Yes, this is a negative surprise, and it's born out of the expectation that the 29-year-old forward was a perfect acquisition for a Blazers team that needed length, versatility, defensive integrity and shot-making from his position. Grant's numbers have been more than solid, and he's never shot the ball better from long distance. Yet, Portland didn't seem to benefit from his presence, and now either his current team or another one faces the prospect of paying him like a star.
Blinding Ray of Hope Award: Shaedon Sharpe
It's risky to put stock in Sharpe's late-season scoring and on-ball-rep upticks, because the Blazers aren't trying to win games anymore. But the preposterously athletic rookie wing is making it hard to stay rational. Sharpe is racking up 20-point games on the regular after logging just one through mid-March, and he's doing it via a much deeper offensive bag than he seemed to have early in the year.
And also: dunks!
Lots and lots of dunks!
Sacramento Kings
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MVP: De'Aaron Fox
If you value Domantas Sabonis' edges in EPM and RAPTOR, or if you view his playmaking in the middle of the floor as the driver of the Sacramento Kings' whirling, handoff-heavy attack, more power to you. But Fox is right there with his fellow All-Star in most of the catch-all stats, and his work in close-and-late games just can't be ignored.
Clutch play rarely carries over from year to year, but Fox still gets credit for being 2022-23's best player in tight situations. The lefty guard leads all players in total points scored in the clutch, and Bradley Beal is the only high-volume producer with a higher field-goal percentage. Fox tops all of his teammates in total points, steals and free-throw attempts, and he's on pace to set new career highs in Player Efficiency Rating and true shooting percentage—all while getting the Kings back to the playoffs for the first time since 2006.
DPOY: Davon Mitchell
Being defended by Mitchell is an unpleasant experience. Though undersized, the second-year guard bodies up to his man so closely that any length or height disadvantage vanishes. Laterally quick, extremely intense and always looking for the game-altering strip that'll trigger a breakaway, the Kings' backup point guard is the most reliable member of an otherwise untrustworthy defense.
Best Newcomer: Keegan Murray
Malik Monk's quick-trigger offense can swing games, but he's more of a "leave him in if he's hot" option. Murray, the rookie forward out of Iowa, has been the more consistent, steadily productive first-year King.
Already in possession of the rookie record for made threes, Murray figures to break and re-break the total he'll set this season. If there's a knock on him, it's that he's not aggressive enough. As Murray defers less, and as his teammates coax more of a me-first demeanor out of the obviously talented 22-year-old, he'll only get better. That's no small thing for the rookie who has contributed more to a winning team than any other first-year player.
Focus on What he CAN Do Award: Domantas Sabonis
Sabonis didn't win team MVP in part because he's the centerpiece of a bad defense, and that has to matter a little. But we can ignore that here and focus instead on his immense value as the hub of an offense that might go down as the most efficient in history.
Nikola Jokić is the only center with more assists, and Sabonis supplements his passing with a brutish post game and more rebounds per contest than anyone in the league. It's true Sabonis is a one-way player but, man, is he great at that one way.
San Antonio Spurs
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MVP: Keldon Johnson
Tre Jones gets a mention for being the only reliable point guard on the roster for most of the season. His value showed up most starkly in the San Antonio Spurs' dramatically reduced turnover rate whenever Jones was on the floor.
Johnson's minutes featured a negative net rating swing, and the 23-year-old forward couldn't quite maintain last year's efficiency gains as his role in the offense grew, and he added just over four shots per game to 2021-22's average. But Johnson nearly managed to put up more total points than Jones and Devin Vassell, San Antonio's second and third-leading scorers, combined. And he also led the way in minutes and free-throw attempts. All in all, Johnson still profiles as a quality starter with room to improve. On a Spurs team that will finish in the cellar, that's good enough.
DPOY: Jeremy Sochan
Maybe we shouldn't have used up our N/A on the Blazers, as the search for a half-decent defender in San Antonio turns up almost nothing. That shouldn't be a surprise with the Spurs sitting at No. 30 in defensive efficiency and opponent effective field-goal percentage.
Let's go with rookie Jeremy Sochan, who grades out as a mild negative on D according to DEPM and Defensive RAPTOR, but whose irascible approach, versatility and impressive anticipation for a first-year player make it easy to imagine him developing into something much better than that. At 6'8" with long arms and some guard instincts, Sochan has the frame and IQ to be the reason San Antonio finishes better than 30th on defense going forward.
Biggest Surprise: Zach Collins
Collins always had an intriguing skill set that included deep range, good vision for a big and a nasty competitive edge. But it was hard to expect much of anything from him coming off of a three-year stretch with games-played totals of just 11, 0 and 28.
Health was clearly the only thing holding Collins back, and he's excelled in all the ways evaluators would have expected before the injury bug bit him back in 2019.
Perspective Award: Gregg Popovich
The Spurs are losing a lot, and that's a relatively new thing for Popovich, who spent most of his career presiding over veterans in pursuit of titles. His honesty about and enthusiasm toward his current situation is refreshing. Maybe borderline inspiring.
We should all be so good at focusing on the positives in the moment.
Toronto Raptors
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MVP: Pascal Siakam
Lost in the Toronto Raptors' mostly disappointing 2022-23 season was another All-Star effort from Siakam, who cracked 24.0 points per game for the first time in his career and set a new personal best in assist rate while trimming his turnover rate to a career low. He'll finish the season as one of only five players to average at least 24.0 points, 7.0 rebounds and 5.0 assists. Three members of that crew—Nikola Jokić, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Luka Dončić—will likely make All-NBA first team, and the other is LeBron James.
Siakam is also on track to lead the league in minutes per game for the second year in a row, too.
DPOY: O.G. Anunoby
It's getting harder to believe the offensive leap is ever going to happen, as Anunoby's tunnel vision and lack of an off-the-dribble package renders him mostly a cutting and catch-and-shoot threat. But the Raptors' burly forward solidified his status as one of the NBA's most overpowering individual defenders.
Anunoby has five-position switchability and the strength to tangle with all but the heftiest bigs. The Raptors force a higher rate of turnovers than any other team, and though some of that stems from a style that prioritizes aggressive trapping, some of it owes to individual dominance. With a DEPM that ranks third in the entire league, a steal rate in the 95th percentile and a block rate in the 92nd among wings, Anunoby grades out as an ace disruptor.
Biggest Surprise: Scottie Barnes
After he shot over 50.0 percent from the field in February, March and April during last year's stretch run, it seemed as if the concerns about Barnes' jumper were gone for good. Unfortunately, they're back in a big way this season and threatening to lower the ceiling significantly on 2021-22's Rookie of the Year.
There's plenty of time for Barnes to correct course, but he's seen his points per shot attempt drop from a respectable 47th percentile last year to 24th this season. With defenders giving him a cushion or just waiting at the rim, Barnes is also finding it harder to score efficiently at close range. Toronto's offense is struggling to find space when he's off the ball, though it's encouraging that Barnes has developed nicely as a playmaker. At least that offsets some of the damage.
See You Next Year? Award: Fred VanVleet and Jakob Poeltl
Toronto's preference for positionless players yielded predatory defense and an effective transition attack, but it also came at a cost. The Raptors have struggled to score in the half court for two years running because they don't have enough playmaking guards or conventional centers. Fred VanVleet and Jakob Poeltl, who've established some very helpful pick-and-roll chemistry since Poeltl came back to his original team at the deadline, could form the foundation of a more reliable offense.
Both are set to hit free agency, though. If Toronto wants to move past the familiar struggles of the past two seasons, it had better bring both of its starting-lineup bookends back.
Utah Jazz
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MVP: Lauri Markkanen
The first-round picks were the headliners when the Donovan Mitchell deal went down, but Markkanen's ascent quickly made him the real prize. An All-Star for the first time, Markkanen has a real shot at an All-NBA spot as well. That's what happens when you become the only other 7-footer besides Dirk Nowitzki to average at least 25.0 points and make 100 threes in a season. For what it's worth, the Jazz's 25-year-old forward is going to finish with over 200 made treys—something Nowitzki never did.
This season has seen Markkanen develop as an off-the-dribble attacker, and though he's not a Grade-A self-sufficient creator, he's made strides in that area. He's never made more unassisted triples or drawn shooting fouls so frequently, and Markkanen's isolation scoring efficiency is in the 89th percentile.
DPOY: Walker Kessler
Apparently, nobody told Kessler that rookies are supposed to look completely lost on defense. An afterthought in the blockbuster trade that sent Rudy Gobert to the Minnesota Timberwolves, Kessler has basically taken over the three-time Defensive Player of the Year's role and performed pretty close to that standard...at age 21.
Among players who cover at least 6.0 shots per game inside six feet, only potential DPOY Jaren Jackson Jr. holds shooters to a lower percentage than Kessler, who occupies the 99th percentile in block rate among bigs.
Best Newcomer: Ochai Agbaji
Just about everyone is a newcomer on Utah's recently flipped roster, but Agbaji gets some shine here because the rookie wing showed he had the potential to be a quality three-and-D wing once he found his way into the rotation.
Agbaji averaged 18.9 minutes per game in January and posted a 54.2/44.8/85.7 shooting split while playing high-energy perimeter defense. Then, in February, he upped his average to 23.3 minutes per game and produced a 47.8/43.8/83/3 split. In March, he's averaging double figures in scoring for the first time. The arrow on the No. 14 pick is angling sharply upward.
Color Me Intrigued Award: Talen Horton-Tucker
It was interesting enough that Horton-Tucker began getting reps as the Jazz's starting point guard toward the end of February, but the whole experiment took on new significance when he racked up 41 points in a March 29 win over the Spurs. At a rugged 6'4" with a wide frame and long arms, Horton-Tucker has been a combo guard his whole career. If he could transition to full-time duties at the point, he'd give Utah some exciting lineup options.
Yes, the Jazz are mostly mailing it in down the stretch. And yes, the Spurs can make anyone look like a future star. But THT is only 22 and checked a lot of boxes—defense, rebounding, elite facilitation for a wing—before he took on a much higher-leverage role and performed well.
Washington Wizards
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MVP: Kristaps Porziņģis
Nothing matters as much as health for Porziņģis, who logged at least 66 games this season for the first time since 2016-17. Staying on the floor triggered a career year for the 7'3" sniper, even if it didn't produce an All-Star nod and probably won't quite be good enough for All-NBA consideration. Still, Porziņģis led all Wizards by a mile in EPM and, more importantly, Dunks and Threes' cumulative stat, Estimated Wins.
Porziņģis will wrap the season as one of five players to average at least 23.0 points and 8.0 rebounds while also hitting over 130 triples. No slouch as an interior defender either, KP ran away with the team lead in positive on-off net rating swing.
DPOY: Delon Wright
An extremely low-usage connector who can disappear offensively, Wright makes his money on the other end, where he always lands among the top tier of ball-hawking thieves. It's remarkable that Wright—with his 3.4 percent steal rate (100th percentile among combo guards)—manages to wreak so much havoc without making mistakes. Barring an uncharacteristic late-season hack-fest, he'll finish in the bottom 10 percent in foul rate for the third year in a row.
With a handful of games to go, Wright has more than doubled his next closest teammate's Defensive RAPTOR score.
Best Newcomer: Monte Morris
Morris is a quintessential good-not-great starting point guard, but his impact on Washington's offense was spectacular. That probably speaks to the lack of quality backups on the roster, but Morris' boosts to the Wizards' offensive rating, effective field goal percentage and ball security all rated in the top 10 percent.
Sometimes, "good enough" is all you need.
Don't Hold It Against Him Award: Bradley Beal
Beal is a really good player who isn't worth his contract. We should spend more time focusing on the first part of that sentence than the second, but a deal worth a quarter-billion dollars has a way of taking over the conversation.
Porziņģis provided more overall value this season, but Beal is the easy runner-up for team MVP and might have seized the award if he'd avoided so many multi-game absences because of injuries. Porziņģis will best him by close to 500 minutes on the year, which makes Beal's 23.2 points on 50.6 percent shooting count for a little less.
Still, let's acknowledge that Beal remains a terrific (if frequently unavailable and overpaid) lead guard.
Stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference and Cleaning the Glass. Accurate entering games played April 2. Salary info via Spotrac.
Grant Hughes covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@gt_hughes), and subscribe to the Hardwood Knocks podcast, where he appears with Bleacher Report's Dan Favale.
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