Colts Would Be Wise to Prioritize Lamar Jackson amid Uncertainty of 2023 NFL Draft

The Indianapolis Colts need stability at the quarterback position, and Andrew Luck isn't walking through the door at their headquarters to solve that problem. They should embrace the idea of pursuing Lamar Jackson, who, like the Colts, is going through an offseason with some uncertainty.

The Colts haven't had a quarterback start Week 1 of consecutive seasons since Luck did it between 2015 and 2016. After that, they shuffled between Jacoby Brissett and Luck before bringing in Philip Rivers, Carson Wentz and Matt Ryan over the previous three years.

In the post-Luck era, the Colts have shifted to a run-heavy attack, but they've made one postseason appearance and lost that game to the Buffalo Bills in the 2020 AFC Wild Card Round.

Following a year with Ryan (12 starts), Sam Ehlinger (three starts) and Nick Foles (two starts) all getting a shot to lead the offense, the team needs to find its franchise signal-caller. The Colts finished 4-12-1, which slotted them fourth overall in the draft. So, with a new head coach in Shane Steichen, we all assumed Indianapolis would find its next signal-caller in the 2023 NFL draft.

However, the Carolina Panthers struck a deal with the Chicago Bears, moving up from No. 9 to No. 1 in the draft to presumably take a young passer. So, two signal-callers will likely hear their names called before Indianapolis makes its pick because the quarterback-needy Houston Texans have the No. 2 overall selection.

In the No. 3 spot, the Arizona Cardinals don't need a quarterback; they signed Kyler Murray to a five-year, $230.5 million megadeal last year. This offseason, the Cardinals hired a new general manager, Monti Ossenfort, and a new head coach, Jonathan Gannon.

With a new regime, the Cardinals may be open to moving back for more draft capital as the club transitions in another direction. Because of that possibility, Colts general manager Chris Ballard should be nervous if he has his eyes on a rookie quarterback.

AP Photo/Michael Conroy

What if a team makes a deal with the Cardinals to leapfrog the Colts for a rookie passer? Would Indianapolis gladly take the fourth signal-caller in the draft? Perhaps Ballard likes Anthony Richardson or Will Levis at No. 4, but he has no idea who will be available if three teams swipe a quarterback before his team's first pick.

Ballard should take an aggressive approach in stopping the revolving door under center in Indianapolis.

Why not go after Jackson, the league MVP in 2019 and a dynamic playmaker?

According to ESPN's Stephen Holder, Indianapolis hasn't ruled out the pursuit of Jackson.

"Owner Jim Irsay is intent on solving a quarterback problem that's defined Indianapolis for the past five years, and he's proved willing to pay top dollar.

"... Indianapolis did not rule out having discussions with Jackson, according to a team source. However, the club has not taken any substantive steps regarding Jackson and it is unclear whether it intends to do so. Team sources have expressed skepticism about pursuing Jackson."

Though Holder's sources doubted the Colts' interest in Jackson, the Ravens signal-caller can make a trade more palatable with his demands for a new contract and willingness to move on from Baltimore.

AP Photo/Phelan M. Ebenhack

Per Pro Football Talk's Mike Florio, Jackson has an (uncertified) representative who's disputed reports that the Ravens quarterback wants a fully guaranteed deal and presented the idea that the signal-caller is ready for a fresh start elsewhere.

"Per multiple sources, a representative for Jackson has contacted more than one team in an effort to spark negotiations aimed at a possible offer sheet. The representative is not certified by the NFL Players Association.

"As one source explained it, the person has said that Jackson does not want a fully-guaranteed contract. Some regard this as a possible exercise in semantics, with Jackson still wanting a very significant amount fully guaranteed — up to $200 million or more — with one or more non-guaranteed years on the back end.

"Another source said that the representative is telling other teams that Lamar is ready to move on from the Ravens."

If true, Florio's source just added a significant twist to Jackson's contract saga with the Ravens, who placed the non-exclusive franchise tag on him. Because of that non-exclusive tender, he can sign an offer sheet from another team, but Baltimore would have five days to match that proposal and keep him or let the quarterback go for two first-round picks.

While the Colts would risk wasting their time in drawing up a proposal only to see the Ravens match it, they can try to work out a sign-and-trade deal, which is what ESPN's Dan Graziano suggested teams would prefer as opposed to a wait-and-see approach with an offer sheet.

"Based on the conversations I've had, there are teams interested in pursuing a potential Jackson trade if he decides he wants out of Baltimore, but I don't know that you'll see anyone submit a formal offer sheet that puts two first-round draft picks at risk if the Ravens don't match.

"I think teams would rather talk to the Ravens about a more traditional trade, though of course they'd also at some point have to talk to Jackson because he'd have to sign the franchise tender before he could be traded."

On the downside, the Ravens would likely ask for more than a couple of first-round picks for Jackson in a sign-and-trade transaction, but that beats doing the contract work for Baltimore only to miss out on a player who can elevate the franchise.

In addition to first-round picks in 2023 and 2024, Indianapolis should offer a couple of second-rounders over the next three years, one of its three 2023 fifth-round picks (No. 138) and Pro Bowl cornerback Kenny Moore II, who's in the final year of his contract, for Jackson.

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Sure, Jackson has missed 11 games, including a playoff outing against the Cincinnati Bengals over the past two seasons. With that said, if he's not asking for a fully guaranteed contract, Ballard may feel more comfortable signing him to a massive deal that's comparable to what the Cardinals paid Murray last offseason.

Besides that, Ballard should feel some pressure to get Indianapolis back into the postseason. During his six-year run as the team's general manager, the Colts are 1-2 in the playoffs. Jackson has helped lead the Ravens to the postseason in four of the previous five campaigns and likely saved head coach John Harbaugh's job in 2018 as the team floundered with quarterback Joe Flacco in the middle of that term.

As Jackson did for Harbaugh and Baltimore that season, he can become Ballard's job preserver and the answer to Indianapolis' substandard quarterback play.

We have no idea which quarterbacks rank atop the Colts' big board for the upcoming draft, but Jackson would immediately propel this franchise back into the playoff picture.

The Colts have a head coach in Steichen who, as an offensive coordinator, worked well with physically or athletically gifted quarterbacks in Justin Herbert and Jalen Hurts. Under Steichen, Herbert broke rookie records, and Hurts generated MVP buzz this past season before his dazzling Super Bowl performance.

This offseason, Indianapolis cut Ryan and signed Gardner Minshew, who followed Steichen from the Philadelphia Eagles. The latter joins Foles and Ehlinger on the quarterback depth chart.

Ballard can go with a practical long-term stopgap-rookie quarterback plan, featuring Minshew with Richardson or Levis. But with a move for Jackson, he can instantly position the Colts to win AFC South titles and compete for a spot in the Super Bowl for the foreseeable future.

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Maurice Moton covers the NFL for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @MoeMoton.