Men's NCAA Bracket 2023: Complete Guide to Midwest Region
The No. 1 seed Houston Cougars headline a talented group of teams that will attempt to punch their ticket to the Final Four in Houston via the Midwest Region of the 2023 men's NCAA tournament.
Kelvin Sampson's group will attempt to get to the Final Four after it was bounced in the Elite Eight in the 2022 tourney.
Joining them in the pursuit will be red-hot Texas, coming off a Big 12 tournament win, and sharpshooting Xavier.
Then there are more than a few teams capable of pulling off an upset and throwing things into chaos along the way.
Here, we'll preview the bracket from multiple angles, capturing the must-see games, players to watch and predictions for how it will play out.
Make your picks: Play the NCAA March Madness Men's Bracket Challenge and Tournament Run.
First-Round Schedule
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All times ET.
Thursday
No. 8 Iowa vs. No. 9 Auburn, 6:50 p.m., TNT
No. 2 Texas vs. No. 15 Colgate, 7:25 p.m., TBS
No. 1 Houston vs. No. 16 Northern Kentucky, 9:20 p.m., TNT
No. 7 Texas A&M vs. No. 10 Penn State, 9:55 p.m., TBS
Friday
No. 3 Xavier vs. No. 14 Kennesaw State, 12:40 p.m., truTV
No. 6 Iowa State vs. No. 11 Mississippi State/Pitt, 3:10 p.m., truTV
No. 5 Miami vs. No. 12 Drake, 7:25 p.m., TBS
No. 4 Indiana vs. No. 13 Kent State, 9:55 p.m., TBS
Must-See Games
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No. 7 Texas A&M vs. No. 10 Penn State
This is a matchup of two teams that could arguably be penciled in for deep runs if they weren't on Texas' side of the bracket. The Longhorns are on fire, but they'll want to watch this one closely. The Aggies finished second in the SEC and are a physical team that gets to the free-throw line. Penn State went on a magical run as the No. 10 seed in the Big Ten tournament, playing in the final against Purdue.
No. 4 Indiana vs. No. 13 Kent State
If you're looking for a major upset in the first round of this region, it's best to start with Kent State. The Golden Flashes are the real deal and would have been a scary matchup for anyone. They lost at No. 1 seed Houston 49-44 on Nov. 26 and played West No. 3 seed Gonzaga close too (73-66) on Dec. 5. They can defend, run in transition and hold their own on the glass. The Hoosiers will need to play well from the outset.
Top Storylines
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Is Houston a Vulnerable No. 1 Seed?
The Cougars were the No. 2 team in the tournament rankings, locking up a No. 1 seed despite losing to Memphis in the AAC title game. From one perspective, it's a game that didn't matter. Houston was without star guard Marcus Sasser, who was held out with a groin injury he suffered in the team's semifinal win over Cincinnati. So, was the loss a bump on the road or a harbinger of an early exit?
Texas Rivalry Potentially Renewed
Penn State was one of the most riveting stories of conference championship week. But that's over, and it's all about the tournament now. If Texas A&M comes out on top, it would renew a rivalry with a spot in the Sweet 16 on the line. The Aggies haven't played the Longhorns since 2019.
Jim Larrañaga On Upset Watch
Once upon a time, Jim Larrañaga ignited a run to the 2006 Final Four with George Mason, a No. 11 seed. Fast-forward to 2023, and Larrañaga may be on the other side. No. 12 seed Drake will be a popular upset pick. The Hurricanes are not a great defensive team (132nd in KenPom.com's defensive efficiency), and the Bulldogs make 37.3 percent of their three-point attempts.
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Players to Watch
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Jarace Walker, Houston
The Cougars need Marcus Sasser to come back healthy, but if he's going to be out or compromised, Jarace Walker will become even more important. Sasser was the AAC Player of the Year, but Walker took home Freshman of the Year honors. The 6'8", 240-pound forward was the fifth pick in Jonathan Wasserman's latest mock draft for Bleacher Report.
Kris Murray, Iowa
The Hawkeyes haven't been interested in playing defense all season, but they can score with the best of them. Murray is a big reason why. The forward has an NBA body (6'8", 220 lbs) and can fill up the stat sheet (20.4 PPG, 7.9 RPG, 2.0 APG). If anyone is going to put up a huge day and scare the daylights out of a top seed in Round 2, it's Murray. He can bully his way to the basket and hit open threes. He's everywhere.
Jalen Pickett, Penn State
Jalen Pickett has already shown what he can do in a tournament setting. He was the driving force behind the Nittany Lions' surprising ascension in the Big Ten tournament. Pickett (17.9 PPG, 7.3 RPG, 6.7 APG) does everything, and his ability to get to the basket opens things up for a collection of shooters. If they get hot, Texas A&M and then maybe Texas better have a good defensive plan.
Favorite Most Likely to Fall
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No. 4 Indiana Hoosiers
Timing is everything, and Indiana has picked the worst time to become maddeningly inconsistent. Good luck figuring out a team that is 4-4 over its last eight games.
The Hoosiers have talent, to be sure. Trayce Jackson-Davis (20.8 PPG, 10.9 RPG, 4.1 APG, 2.7 BPG) would have been the best player in the conference if it weren't for Zach Edey of Purdue. Freshman Jalen Hood-Schifino could be a late lottery pick.
But they will play a team in Kent State that brings tremendous energy and kept things close with Houston and Gonzaga earlier this year. The Golden Flashes play good defense and don't turn the ball over (16.3 percent turnover rate, per Bart Torvik).
They have lost just twice since late January and blew out a good Toledo team in the MAC Championship Game. The Hoosiers will need to be in top form to dodge the upset bug.
Most Likely Cinderella
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No. 12 Drake
The Kent State defense will give it a shot at upsetting Indiana, but Drake has the best chance to be a Cinderella team that goes to the Sweet 16.
Darian DeVries' group is led by his son, Tucker DeVries (19.0 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 1.8 APG), who won the MVC's Larry Bird Trophy, which goes to the league player of the year.
The Bulldogs aren't just a one-man show, though. Roman Penn (5.4 APG) initiates the offense and can create for others as well as himself (12.6 PPG).
Drake enters the tournament hot. It has won 13 of 14 and avenged the only loss with a 77-51 rout of Bradley in the MVC Championship Game. The Dogs take care of the ball (29th in offensive turnover percentage) and keep opponents off the offensive glass (third in opponents' offensive rebound percentage), per Bart Torvik.
That gives them a good chance to beat Miami, and they would then match up against fellow Cinderella candidate Kent State or up-and-down Indiana in the next round.
Who Will Make the Sweet 16?
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No. 1 Houston
It's tempting to take Iowa to upset the Cougars in the second round. The Hawkeyes offense can be elite on any given day, and Marcus Sasser's injury could make things dicey for Houston. But it is still a supremely talented team even if Sasser is out, and the defense should be able to keep Iowa out of rhythm. The Cougars might have to survive a scare but should get to the Sweet 16.
No. 12 Drake
It's possible this pod is headed toward a Kent State vs. Drake showdown in the round of 32. Both have good profiles to be bracket-busters and drew matchups against higher seeds with potentially fatal flaws. However, the Bulldogs' ability to take care of the ball and star power with Tucker DeVries gives them the edge with the ability to upset both Miami and Indiana.
No. 3 Xavier
The Musketeers have interesting challenges to overcome on their way to the Sweet 16. Iowa State loves to bring games to a halt with its deliberate pace and good defense. Pitt has to get past Mississippi State but has won games against Miami and Virginia this season. The Panthers are erratic, though, and have lost three of four. Regardless, Xavier is seventh in the country in assist rate, per Bart Torvik, and its ball movement helps a good group of shooters (39.5 three-point percentage).
No. 2 Texas
The Longhorns' tournament journey starts with sharpshooting Colgate, but they are playing too well to entertain a massive upset in the first round. Instead, their first real challenge could come from Texas A&M or Penn State. Both had great performances in their conference tournaments but came up short when tasked with beating the best team. Expect the same against Texas.
The Elite Eight Matchup Will Be...
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No. 1 Houston vs. No. 2 Texas
Kelvin Sampson has proved that Houston is legit. He led the Coogs to the Final Four in 2021 and Elite Eight in 2022. There are some questions about this year's team. Marcus Sasser's injury and the loss to Memphis are evidence it isn't invincible.
All that considered, the path to the Elite Eight is too easy for Houston not to get this far. Even without Sasser, the Cougars have the depth and defense to stifle anyone on their side of the bracket.
The bracket is set up for a Lone Star State showdown. With 14 Quadrant 1 wins and a 20-point victory over Kansas in the Big 12 Championship Game, Texas had a case to be a No. 1 seed.
It isn't just a team that got hot late in the season. The Longhorns are one of four squads to finish the season in the top 20 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, per KenPom.
A team that well-rounded and playing so well should not get upset before the Elite Eight.
And the Final Four Team Is...
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No. 2 Texas
Kelvin Sampson has yet to break through to the Final Four with Houston, and drawing Texas on its side of the bracket isn't going to help.
The Big 12 has the Longhorns well prepared for the tournament. The conference has seven teams in the field, and Texas played 22 games against Quad 1 opponents. Houston has played only nine Quad 1 games, going 7-2.
Texas' versatility could be a key in this game. Houston ranks 343rd in adjusted tempo, per KenPom. The Cougars prefer to work the shot clock and force teams to be extremely efficient on offense.
That cuts both ways, though. It forces Houston to make the most of every possession. The Horns are 91st in tempo and can play a fast-paced shootout or beat the Cougars at their own game.
Texas has four players averaging double-digit points per game, and Dylan Disu (8.3 PPG) has led the team in scoring in each of the last two games.
The Longhorns' ability to rely on different players throughout the season and navigate the tough Big 12 make them the choice to earn the Midwest's Final Four berth.
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