NCAA Bracket 2023: Predicting Top Men's Bubble Teams on Selection Sunday
The NCAA men's basketball tournament bubble discussion is as simple as you can ask for going into Selection Sunday.
The selection committee has to decide between a handful of teams to land the final at-large berths in the field of 68.
The Big Dance bracket can be put together well before Sunday's selection show because there are no potential bid-stealers left in the five conference tournament finals that will be played on Sunday.
The Arizona State Sun Devils, Oklahoma State Cowboys, Vanderbilt Commodores and Clemson Tigers are among the teams that will have sweaty Sundays.
All of those programs could be in danger of missing the NCAA tournament because they did not get past the semifinal round of their respective conference tournaments. Some squads did not even make it that far.
One or two of the final decisions may come down to a head-to-head comparison between these teams, and those calls will receive scrutiny before and after they are made.
Arizona State Sun Devils
1 of 4
Arizona State's win over the USC Trojans in the Pac-12 tournament quarterfinals was vital to its NCAA tournament hopes.
Before that win, Arizona State was 1-5 against the top three teams in its league. The lone win came on a buzzer-beater against the Arizona Wildcats.
The Sun Devils enter Sunday as the "Last Team In" in the recent projections from ESPN's Joe Lunardi and Bleacher Report's Kerry Miller.
Bally Sports' Brad Evans believes Arizona State will get in over a few teams from the Mountain West because of its strength of schedule and Quad 1 wins.
Arizona State's win over the Creighton Bluejays is one of the best victories in nonconference play from any of the bubble teams. Bobby Hurley's team also beat the VCU Rams and Michigan Wolverines on a neutral floor.
If VCU wins the Atlantic 10 tournament final on Sunday, that win could look a bit better for Arizona State and boost its resume in the slightest.
The win over USC likely put the Sun Devils in the field with their resume, but a trip to Dayton, Ohio for the First Four seems likely.
Prediction: First Four
Oklahoma State Cowboys
2 of 4
Oklahoma State's bubble placement is a product of it playing in the toughest league in college basketball.
The Cowboys went 8-10 in the Big 12. They swept the Iowa State Cyclones and beat the TCU Horned Frogs in the regular season.
However, the lack of many more quality wins in conference play could hurt the Cowboys' final case to the selection committee.
Four of the team's Big 12 regular-season wins were over the Oklahoma Sooners and Texas Tech Red Raiders, who were the two worst teams in the Big 12. OK State beat the Sooners again in the Big 12 tournament first round.
The third win over Oklahoma was just the second win in seven games for OK State, and then it proceeded to lose to the Texas Longhorns in the Big 12 tournament quarterfinals.
Lunardi listed OK State as his "First Team Out," while Miller has it further away from the bubble. CBS Sports' Jerry Palm also has the Cowboys as his "First Team Out".
Any more wins against the Big 12's NCAA tournament teams would have helped OK State's resume more, and that should keep it out of the field of 68.
Prediction: Out of NCAA tournament
Vanderbilt Commodores
3 of 4
Vanderbilt presents the most challenging bubble question to the selection committee.
The Commodores finished with a 10-2 record in their last 12 games and advanced to the SEC tournament semifinals.
Jerry Stackhouse's team is easily playing the best basketball of any of the bubble candidates, and that could play a role in its tournament selection.
Miller listed Vandy above Arizona State on his "Last Four In" line, but the Commodores are on the "First Four Out" lines in Lunardi and Palm's brackets.
Vanderbilt's two recent wins over the Kentucky Wildcats and a last-second victory over the Tennessee Volunteers helped it create the best-possible resume.
Vandy also owns a head-to-head win over the Pittsburgh Panthers, who might be on the bubble because of a weak ACC.
A trip to the SEC tournament final might have secured Vandy's spot in the field of 68, but at least it gave the selection committee something to talk about because of its late-season surge.
If Vanderbilt gets into the tournament, it will likely make a trip to Dayton for the First Four.
Prediction: First Four
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Clemson Tigers
4 of 4
Clemson suffered the exact opposite fate as Vanderbilt in the last month.
The Tigers went from leading the ACC to potentially missing the NCAA tournament.
Clemson's weak nonconference schedule put it in a tough spot from the start if it experienced any trouble in ACC play. The Tigers' only notable win came over the Penn State Nittany Lions, who climbed into the field of 68 this week.
Clemson closed with a 5-6 record that included losses to the Boston College Eagles and Louisville Cardinals, two of the worst teams in the ACC.
When you compare Clemson's resume to Pittsburgh and the NC State Wolfpack, the other two ACC bubble teams, the bad losses stand out more.
Clemson swept NC State over three games and beat Pittsburgh on January 7, but the dip in form and two bad losses could be enough to keep it out of the Big Dance.
That seems to be the consensus between Evans, Miller, Lunardi and Palm, all of whom have Clemson either on the "First Four Out" line or out of the bracket projection completely.
Prediction: Clemson misses NCAA tournament
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