Players Championship 2023: Updated Predictions for Top Prize Money
Day 1 of the 2023 Players Championship is done, and it's been a thrilling tournament so far.
Fans were treated to some incredible highs and lows, including a hole-in-one from Hayden Buckley and a slow start by a few of the early favorites. After the first day, Chad Ramey stands alone atop the leaderboard at eight under.
Not everyone got their opening rounds in before play was suspended due to darkness, so the remainder of Round 1 will pick up on Friday morning ahead of Round 2.
Here, we'll recap some of the Day 1 action, dive into the updated Players Championship odds and make a few predictions for the remainder of the tournament.
Tournament Info and Early Leaderboard
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2023 Players Championship
When: March 9-12
Where: TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida
TV: NBC, Golf Channel
Prize Pool: $25 million ($4.5 million to winner)
TV Coverage
Friday, March 10: 12-6 p.m. ET on Golf Channel
Saturday, March 11: 1-6 p.m. ET on NBC
Sunday, March 12: 1-6 p.m. ET on NBC
*Daily Live Stream on ESPN+
Early Leaders (through 18 only)
Chad Ramey -8
Collin Morikawa -7
Taylor Pendrith -5
Benjamin Griffin -5
Justin Suh -5
*Full leaderboard can be found at PGATour.com
Day 1 Recap
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Thursday was a day of highs and lows, and perhaps no one encapsulated that theme better than Buckley. His ace on the No. 17 island green was a thing of beauty, and after 10 holes, he was tied for the lead at 5 under.
However, the 27-year-old finished his round at one over, and he was far from the only golfer to struggle on Day 1.
Early favorites like Rory McIlroy fared poorly. He finished at four over, along with the likes of Webb Simpson, Beau Hossler and Lee Hodges.
The Northern Irishman's struggles could be due to him switching to a new driver.
"These driver heads are so finicky, it's hard to get one exactly the same. I'm obviously trying my best, trying to get something that's as close to what I had last year. I have just struggled a little bit off the tee the last couple weeks," McIlroy told reporters.
Jon Rahm, another early favorite, is sitting at a more respectable one under, though he's quite a bit back from the clubhouse leaders.
Ramey's lead is a bit of a surprise, as he's not one of the most notable players on the PGA Tour. He has just one Tour win on his resume—the 2022 Corales Puntacana Championship—and missed the cut in the 2022 PGA Championship, his only previous appearance in a major.
Seeing Collin Morikawa near the top is less of a shock, as he has wins in both the PGA Championship and the Open Championship.
Scottie Scheffler, who was the second favorite behind Rahm as of Thursday morning, isn't far from the top at four under.
In all, 10 golfers shot a 68 or lower over the first 18 holes, which highlights just how much ground players like McIlroy and Tom Hoge (six over) have to cover on Day 2.
Updated Odds
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Collin Morikawa 7-2
Scottie Scheffler 9-2
Jon Rahm 14-1
Viktor Hovland 16-1
Jordan Spieth 16-1
Jason Day 18-1
Justin Suh 18-1
Sam Burns 20-1
*Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
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Updated Predictions
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It would be foolish to discount Ramey, who heads into the second round with a one-stroke lead, and at odds of 35-1, he might be a smart Day 2 pick.
However, it feels like there's a group waiting just behind him poised to take over on Friday. Morikawa and Scheffler have been more consistent golfers, while Taylor Pendrith fared well at TPC Sawgrass last year (tied for 13th).
Expect to see Rahm surge back into the mix on Day 2, too. He's already won three PGA Tour events this year, and he managed to regain his composure after a horrible start last weekend at Bay Hill.
Will McIlroy continue struggling enough to miss the cut entirely? It would be one of the stunners of the tournament, and the prediction here is that he rebounds to reach Saturday play.
The 33-year-old also had a slow start at the Arnold Palmer Invitational—albeit with a 73 and not a 76—and managed to finish one stroke off the lead. Expect him to make a serious run at getting back to even on Friday.
We'll have a much better idea of who has a legitimate shot to win the Players Championship after a second round that could include rain, though not to the degree we saw last year hopefully.
Based on Thursday's play, Morikawa and Scheffler feel like the safest picks, and the latter could have the edge. Morikawa had a chance to finish tied for the lead but missed a birdie putt on his final hole and could lose a bit of momentum because of it.
Scheffler has never fared particularly well in the Players—he missed the cut in 2021 and tied for 55th in 2022—but he's on pace to net his biggest win since the 2022 Masters.
The prediction here, though, is that Rahm makes an incredible run to get his fourth win in less than three months. He was my pick at the start of the tournament, and I'm not ready to back off of that just yet.
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