Ranking Riskiest Players in 2023 NFL Free-Agent Class
Free agency is a time of hope for fans and NFL teams alike.
Fans dream about spending sprees and shiny new toys like kids wondering what what they will get for their birthday. Teams imagine using their available cap space to add the missing piece in their postseason (or even Super Bowl) puzzle.
However, free agency can also be a dangerous time. In their zeal to get better, teams sometimes spend money in ways they shouldn't, especially if they are flush with cap space.
Every offseason, some signings are immediate head-scratchers. Others look fine at the time, but they age like a tuna sandwich left in the sun for two days.
For every player featured here, paying them big money this offseason could be a risky bet. That risk is higher for some than others, whether due to the salary needed to sign them, the odds they won't live up to that fat new deal or both.
But for all of them, the risk is real.
8. WR Jakobi Meyers
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Jakobi Meyers is perhaps the best wide receiver in this year's free-agent class. His drop rate and contested catch percentages not only stack up well against this year's free-agent wideouts, but the entire NFL, according to Brad Spielberger of Pro Football Focus.
Given the dearth of wide receiver talent available both in free agency and the 2023 draft and the number of teams looking for help at the position, Meyers could be headed for a massive payday. A deal averaging $15 million per season wouldn't be too surprising.
Whichever team signs Meyers needs to be realistic about what it's getting, though.
Playing on the run-heavy New England Patriots with game-manager quarterback Mac Jones over the past two years didn't help, but Meyers has never had even 900 receiving yards in a season. He's averaged over 12.5 yards per reception just once and is averaging only 11.7 for his career.
Meyers is a smart, tough player who runs clean routes, has good hands and isn't afraid to get the ball. He has decent size as well. But he isn't running past anyone—he ran a 4.63-second 40 at the 2019 NFL combine.
As a No. 2 receiver, Meyers can use his physicality and route-running ability to take advantage of single coverage. But any team that thinks Meyers is a No. 1 receiver who can beat double-teams and carry a passing game is setting itself up to be disappointed.
7. LB Tremaine Edmunds
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It's still possible that linebacker Tremaine Edmunds won't be going anywhere. The Buffalo Bills have long indicated that they would like the 24-year-old to return. But Edmunds is arguably the No. 1 off-ball linebacker in this year's free-agent class, and the Bills have a tricky cap situation to navigate.
At an event last month, Tremaine sounded like he was ready to let the market dictate where he will be playing in 2023.
"I'm gonna let the process take shape," Edmunds told Henry McKenna of Fox Sports. "You know what I mean? Like, you know, they've been good to me. So I definitely say thank you to the Bills for everything that they've done for me these last five years. But like I said, man, I'm just right now—I'm in the backseat."
Inside linebacker generally isn't regarded as a premium position, but the league's highest-end options can make bank. Three off-ball linebackers have contracts that average over $19 million per season. Edmunds may not get that much, but if receives the $17-plus million annual salary that Pro Football Focus is projecting (h/t Nick Wojton of Bills Wire), he'll be paid like one of the best in the game at his position.
To be fair, Edmunds could become one of the game's best inside linebackers. He's just now entering the prime of his career, he has eclipsed 100 tackles in all five of his NFL seasons, and his coverage skills improved in 2022.
But while Edmunds has been a very good linebacker, he hasn't been great. And that was on a Buffalo defense replete with talent at all three levels. Paying him like a cornerstone defender and game-wrecker in the hopes he'll become one is a risky play, especially given the effect that spending big money at linebacker has on the rest of a team's salary cap.
If you're paying a linebacker big bucks, you have to cut corners somewhere else.
6. CB Jonathan Jones
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The New England Patriots have become the masters of turning undrafted free agent cornerbacks into plus starters. Last year, Jonathan Jones joined J.C. Jackson and Malcolm Butler in that club.
After snagging a career-high four interceptions to go with 69 tackles last season, Jones could be on the verge of a big-time payday. While appearing on The Next Pats Podcast, Jones said he'd prefer to remain with the Patriots, but he's keeping his options open.
"That's where I've spent my career," he said, via Phil Perry of NBC Sports Boston. "It's what I know. It's what I love. I mean, New England is home for me in that aspect. We'll see. We'll see how free agency turns out... and we'll take it from there."
Historically speaking, the Patriots have usually let breakout cornerbacks walk in free agency. Butler left for the Tennessee Titans in 2018, and Jackson signed a five-year, $82.5 million deal with the Los Angeles Chargers last offseason. Neither replicated the success they had in Boston, although one injury-marred year is too soon to pass final judgment on Jackson.
While Jones has long been a solid slot corner, last year's move to the boundary was something of a mixed bag. He shined early in the season, but bigger-bodied outside receivers started to take advantage of his 5'10", 190-pound frame as the year went on.
Jones is a good cornerback. He might be the best available this spring. But that doesn't mean he's a great player, and paying him like he is could be problematic.
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5. OT Kaleb McGary
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In today's NFL, few positions are more profitable in free agency than offensive tackle. Even so-so tackles can fetch in excess of $12 million per season from teams desperate to improve along their offensive front.
After four seasons in Atlanta, Kaleb McGary could be looking at a huge raise this offseason. Spotrac estimates that he could receive a four-year deal in excess of $70 million.
However, recent free-agent classes are littered with tackles who failed to live up to massive contracts. Gregg Rosenthal of NFL.com believes McGary is a candidate to join that inglorious club.
"I'm always wary of shelling out for a tackle who profiles as much better in the running game than in pass protection, which describes McGary," Rosenthal said. "I'm also wary of a player who had a career year in the final season of a contract but put forth substandard play before that."
McGary was one of the NFL's best run-blocking tackles this past season. But he was average at best in pass protection, allowing six sacks, per Pro Football Focus. In 2021, he surrendered nine sacks, which was tied for the second-most leaguewide.
Whichever NFL team forks over big bucks for McGary could wind up with a one-dimensional player whose career year in 2022 was more of the exception than the rule.
4. DT Javon Hargrave
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As hard as it can be to build a great roster, keeping it together can be even more difficult. The NFC champion Philadelphia Eagles are learning that the hard way this offseason.
With quarterback Jalen Hurts likely headed for a massive extension, the Eagles have some difficult roster decisions ahead. They have a number of key defensive contributors who are set to hit free agency, including cornerback James Bradberry, safety Chauncey Gardner-Johnson and defensive tackle Javon Hargrave.
All three are expected to leave, with Hargrave likely to see the biggest payday. While appearing on 97.5 The Fanatic, ESPN's Adam Schefter said he expects Hargrave to potentially fetch north of $20 million per season (h/t Nick Tricome of PhillyVoice).
"Hargrave is going to get about $20 million a year, I think," Schefter said. "That's my projection going into next week, and we'll see if that turns out to be right or wrong. Yeah, I think he'll be gone. I don't think they'll be able to afford to re-sign him."
Hargrave, who finished with a career-high 11 sacks last season, appears to deserve a fat raise. But prior to last year, he had never had eight sacks in a season. Nearly half of his career 37.5 sacks came in the last two seasons, when he was playing on an Eagles defensive line loaded with talent.
Only three defensive tackles make $20 million per season. Two of them have also played seven seasons (DeForest Buckner and Chris Jones), but they each have at least 15 more career sacks. The third is Aaron Donald.
Hargrave is a fine defensive tackle. But he ain't Aaron Donald.
3. Edge Marcus Davenport
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If you're the top player at a premium position in a weak crop of free agents, demand for your services will likely be high. That demand will drive up the amount teams are willing to pay.
Even after the release of veterans like Frank Clark and Bud Dupree, this year's class of edge-rushers isn't especially impressive. That means New Orleans Saints edge-rusher Marcus Davenport could be headed for such a bonanza.
A first-round pick of the Saints back in 2018, Davenport has shown flashes of Pro Bowl potential, including a 39-tackle, nine-sack effort in 2021. However, he has yet to consistently be a difference-maker.
Davenport's production went off a cliff last season, and he finished with only a half-sack in 15 games. He also lost playing time to Carl Granderson.
Durability has been an issue for Davenport throughout his career, too. He has missed at least two games in all five of his NFL seasons.
Davenport may be a good player, but he has shown little to indicate that he's the force whom the Saints thought they were getting when they traded up to draft him. With that said, it takes only one team that believes it can unlock Davenport's potential for him to get paid. Given how many clubs need help on the edge, there could be several who buy into that.
If one gives Davenport close to the $23 million per season that Spotrac estimates his market value to be, it will likely be viewed as a boondoggle a few years down the road.
2. OT Donovan Smith
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The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are in the midst of a post-Tom Brady roster purge, which recently claimed offensive tackle Donovan Smith. After releasing Smith, general manager Jason Licht made a point of thanking him in a statement for his contributions to the team.
"I want to thank Donovan for all that he has done for the Buccaneers on and off the field over the past eight seasons," Licht said. "He stepped in as our starter at left tackle in 2015 and his durability and dependability at one of the most important positions in football played a significant role in our offensive success during his time here."
Now that Smith is available, his services should be in high demand. He doesn't turn 30 until June, has started 124 games and helped anchor the offensive line for a Tampa team that won a Super Bowl. As recently as two years ago, Smith was one of the league's top left tackles, allowing only a single sack in over 1,100 snaps, per Pro Football Focus.
But the Buccaneers chose to release Smith in part because he significantly dropped off last season. He allowed a half-dozen sacks for the second time in three years, per PFF. He also committed a dozen penalties, and he was abysmal in run blocking.
It looked like a season from a player whose best days are behind him. And given that Spotrac estimates Smith's contract value on a new deal to be a staggering $19.5 million per season, that makes him a risky signing.
1. QB Jimmy Garoppolo
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No position inspires more desperation among NFL teams than quarterback. There are only so many viable starters to go around.
This year's carousel at the position has already started spinning. After being released by the Las Vegas Raiders, Derek Carr signed with the New Orleans Saints earlier this week. Aaron Rodgers is under contract with the Green Bay Packers, but that hasn't stopped the New York Jets from rolling out the red carpet for him. And after receiving the non-exclusive franchise tag from the Baltimore Ravens on Tuesday, Lamar Jackson is now free to negotiate with other teams.
Far more teams are in need of quarterback help than that. As openings are filled and the talent pool dwindles, some team might talk itself into giving Jimmy Garoppolo north of $30 million per season.
Garoppolo isn't a bad quarterback by any stretch. The 31-year-old has thrown over twice as many touchdown passes as interceptions, has a career passer rating of just under 100 and is 40-17 as a starter in the regular season. However, that sterling win-loss record says as much about the team around him in San Francisco as Garoppolo himself.
Garoppolo is a good player, but he isn't a great one, and durability has been a major concern. He has missed 18 games over the past three seasons and is coming off a season-ending foot injury.
Garoppolo is a capable veteran and a decent bridge option. But he won't single-handedly turn an also-ran into a legitimate Super Bowl contender.
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