Could One of 2023 NFL Draft's Late-Round QB Prospects Be the Next Brock Purdy?
Last year, Iowa State quarterback Brock Purdy was the very last pick of the NFL draft. "Mr. Irrelevant" himself. By the time January rolled around, Purdy was anything but irrelevant—he would up making five regular-season starts for the San Francisco 49ers, winning all five. Purdy completed 67.1 percent of his passes, threw nine more touchdown passes than interceptions, posted a passer rating of 107.3 and even won two playoff games.
Were it not for the elbow injury that knocked him out of San Francisco's NFC Championship Game loss to the Philadelphia Eagles, it's not a stretch to say that Purdy (and not Trey Lance) would have entered the offseason as the presumptive starter for a Super Bowl contender.
Now, expecting a Day 3 pick to step in and have the sort of success that Purdy did isn't especially realistic—prospects fall to the final day of the draft for a reason. Expecting a Day 3 pick to pull a Tom Brady and go from sixth-round pick to seven-time Super Bowl champion sails past unrealistic and into delusional.
But Brady and Purdy aren't the only later-round picks who started a playoff game last season. Dak Prescott was a fourth-round pick out of Mississippi State in 2016. Kirk Cousins was a fourth-rounder out of Michigan State in 2012. Like Purdy, Skylar Thompson was a seventh-round pick out of Kansas State.
Now, there's quite a gap between Brady at one end of that spectrum and Thompson at the other. Purdy lies somewhere in-between. But there's no denying that whether it's as a backup who just starts a game here and there or as a full-time starter, finding a capable NFL quarterback on the third day of the draft can be a godsend for a franchise.
And there are a few candidates in the class of 2023 who have the potential to be the next Day 3 discount diamond.
Stetson Bennett, Georgia
Were draft stock based solely on collegiate accomplishments, then Stetson Bennett might be the first quarterback off the board in April. All Bennett did over the past two seasons was throw for nearly 7,000 yards, toss four times as many touchdown passes (56) as interceptions and lead the Bulldogs to back-to-back national championships.
But of course, draft stock is about much more than what Bennett accomplished in Athens. And it doesn't take long for the red flags to start piling up.
At just 5'11" and 190 pounds, Purdy is undersized by NFL standards. He's also the Methuselah of this rookie class—he'll turn 26 during his rookie season. Bennett was arrested in January for public intoxication. And as Ian Cummings wrote at Pro Football Network, Bennett is widely regarded as a so-so arm talent—at best.
"The biggest thing working against Bennett is his middling arm talent," Cummings wrote. "His arm strength isn't a liability, but he, at times, struggles to generate velocity on his throws, and his arm isn't the most elastic, either. He doesn't have the level of arm talent necessary to layer throws into tight windows, and that limits the amount of throws he can make at the next level."
However, Bennett is experienced—he started 29 games over the past two seasons for the Bulldogs. He's accurate, having completed 65 percent of his passes in college. And Bennett is certainly no stranger to pressure-packed situations—in fact, he played some of his best games when the stakes were highest. In many respects, Bennett is an older, more successful version of Purdy—right down to sharing the criticisms about a relative lack of arm talent.
Max Duggan, TCU
Duggan was one of college football's biggest stars in 2022, throwing for almost 3,700 yards and 32 touchdowns while adding nine more scores on the ground on the way to leading TCU to arguably its best season ever. While making a February appearance on The Rich Eisen Show, Duggan said (at the 5:56 mark) that he models his game after two of the NFL's best.
"A guy that I watched a lot, even lately, was Joe Burrow. What he does with his movements and efficient movements and how he is in the pocket," Duggan said.
"I don't know if I'd say I play like him. Probably someone I kind of play like would be probably Jalen Hurts. Kind of that tough-minded leader. Can make the throws any time. Can lead a group of men. Fought through adversity. Things of that sort."
Whoa there, Max. Let's dial it back a little.
Duggan admittedly had a great season. But if the 6'1", 204-pounder was a combo platter of Joe Burrow's arm talent and ability to read defenses and Jalen Hurts' scrambling ability, he'd be the first overall pick. The NFL Draft Bible's assessment of Duggan's talents and pro prospects were, um, let's go with less effusive.
"Duggan is a gutsy quarterback with the mobility to gash defenses and the arm strength to take advantage of vertical opportunities," they wrote, "but he lacks the accuracy, ball placement, footwork and other basic intangibles necessary to be an impact NFL player."
Those criticisms have some merit. Duggan's accuracy came and went at TCU, in part because his footwork and mechanics were inconsistent. He also wasn't asked much in college to read opposing defenses and work through his progressions. He also struggled at times to make tight-window throws or throw his receivers open.
But Duggan showed the ability to step up his game in crucial moments. His athleticism and escapability will appeal to many NFL teams. He has decent arm strength and nice touch on vertical throws, and most of his flaws are relatively common among quarterbacks entering the NFL.
Is Duggan Jalen Burrow? No. But with some development, he could easily outperform his likely draft slot.
Dorian Thompson-Robinson, UCLA
If Stetson Bennett presents as a prospect with a high floor and low ceiling, then UCLA's Dorian Thompson-Robinson is the opposite. His floor is playing in the XFL. But with his combination of arm talent and athleticism, Thompson-Robinson may well have the highest ceiling of any Day 3 prospect in the 2023 draft.
Thompson-Robinson's mechanics and accuracy can be inconsistent, although his 2022 passing stats (69.6 completion percentage, 3,169 passing yards) were easily the best of his career. As Brentley Weissman wrote for the Draft Network, Thompson-Robinson's athletic upside and improvements as a passer make him one of the more intriguing later-round quarterbacks.
"While there is work to be done as a passer," he wrote, "there is no denying Thompson-Robinson has a fascinating skill set that an NFL team may want to get their hands on. He is outstanding as a runner, showing outstanding speed, change of direction, and instincts which make him a threat whenever he decides to pull the ball down and take off. With the success other athletic quarterbacks who needed development as passers have had in recent seasons, Thompson-Robinson is more than worthy of a late-round flier."
Thompson-Robinson is on the smaller side—just 6'1" and 205 pounds. A scrambling quarterback with that slight a frame is cause for genuine concern. And despite extensive starting experience at UCLA, Thompson-Robinson's decision-making and progression through his reads are both works in progress.
But at the very least, Thompson-Robinson has the potential to be a plus backup for teams with athletic starters under center who don't want to have to scrap half the offense if said starter goes down. And if he lands in the right offense with a staff willing to exercise some patience, he could be more than that.
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