Ranking Dodgers' Best Trade Targets After Gavin Lux ACL Injury
The Los Angeles Dodgers weren't planning on having a hole in the middle of their infield with less than a month to go until Opening Day, but Gavin Lux's injury has opened one right up.
A painful-looking play on the basepaths forced the 25-year-old to make an early exit from the Dodgers' exhibition against the San Diego Padres on Monday. On Tuesday, the team revealed that Lux is likely out for the entire 2023 season with a torn ACL and sprained LCL.
The Dodgers had been hoping that Lux, formerly the Minor League Player of the Year in 2019, would ably fill the departed Trea Turner's shoes at shortstop. The task now falls to Miguel Rojas, who's typically a better defender than he is a hitter.
Though it's hardly certain that the Dodgers will look outside the organization for help, Dodgers manager Dave Roberts didn't seem to rule it out in speaking to reporters: "I do know that what we do have will be more than sufficient, but we're always trying to get better. Whether it's internally or externally, I just don't know."
Let's assess who the Dodgers can go get, starting with remaining free agents and long-shot trade possibilities before counting down seven more practical trade targets. Those rankings are based on those players' appeal, though we also speculated on their present availability.
Remaining Free Agents and Potential Deadline Options
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Remaining Free Agents: Jurickson Profar, José Iglesias, Andrelton Simmons, Didi Gregorius
Profar is more of an outfielder than an infielder at this point, so he's not the best fit for the Dodgers, even though he's the best hitter left on the open market. Iglesias, meanwhile, isn't much more of a roster-filler at this stage of his career.
Simmons and Gregorius have likewise looked squarely past their primes in recent years, but there is the possibility of one or both enjoying a renaissance while playing for the Netherlands in the World Baseball Classic. The Dodgers can wait and see how it plays out.
Long-Shot Trade Targets: Willy Adames (MIL), Tim Anderson (CHW), Amed Rosario (CLE)
Adames and Anderson were speculative trade targets at the outset of the 2022-23 offseason, but not so much after Bob Nightengale of USA Today and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic shot the ideas down in December.
It's plausible that one or both players could end up on the trading block this summer if their respective teams fall out of the race. But likely? Probably not. No matter how bad things get for the Milwaukee Brewers and Chicago White Sox, both will have the option of holding their starting shortstops for the 2024 season. Anderson has a club option, while Adames has another year of arbitration eligibility.
Rosario, on the other hand, is due for free agency after 2023. The Guardians thus might be willing to listen if their pursuit of a second straight American League Central title goes pear-shaped. Or, as they sometimes do, if they simply want to cut payroll.
7. Santiago Espinal, Toronto Blue Jays
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Why the Dodgers Should Be Interested
Must a replacement for Lux necessarily be another starting shortstop? Perhaps a utility type who could also help Miguel Vargas at second base would do just as well.
Though Santiago Espinal has played 206 innings at short in the majors, he's mostly played second for the Toronto Blue Jays. And very well, at that. He put up four defensive runs saved at the keystone in 2022, with outs above average rating him even better at plus-nine.
Espinal's bat, meanwhile, was instrumental in his making the American League All-Star squad last year, as he ended the first half with a .271 average and six home runs. He cooled in the second half but still salvaged impressive whiff (92nd percentile) and chase (70th percentile) percentages.
The 28-year-old is making a modest $2.1 million this year with four more years of club control still to go. So if the Dodgers go for him, they'll have a guy they can use as a starting second baseman or in a utility role for years to come.
Availability Meter: Low
With Whit Merrifield and Cavan Biggio also lined up for playing time at second base, Espinal seemed like a logical trade candidate at the outset of the winter. But there were never any audible whispers of Toronto shopping him, which could indicate that they have a plan for how to use him despite the logjam.
6. Gleyber Torres, New York Yankees
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Why the Dodgers Should Be Interested
Espinal is a nice player and all, but the Dodgers would do well to aim higher if they're comfortable finding a newcomer for second instead of short. Like, say, Gleyber Torres.
He had a rough couple years in 2020 and 2021, adding only 12 home runs to the 62 he had hit in All-Star campaigns in 2018 and 2019. He thankfully returned to form last year, landing 24 balls over the fence with help from career-best marks for exit velocity and hard-hit rate.
It would be fine if Torres never lined up at shortstop again, but he's solid at second base and he should be well prepared for baseball's post-shift era to boot. He was only shifted for 25.1 percent of his time in the field last year, ranking 37th among second baseman who saw at least 5,000 pitches on defense.
Torres, 26, is set to earn $10 million in his penultimate year of club control, so trading for him would put the Dodgers in position to pay a surcharge on their luxury-tax overages for 2023. But as much as they might not want to do that, well, you know what they say about desperate times.
Availability Meter: Medium
Torres told Chris Kirschner of The Athletic that it was "really hard" to hear his name in trade rumors last summer, and he was so spooked by the latest round this winter that he stopped using social media. Between that and DJ LeMahieu's apparent return to good health, the Yankees have at least two good excuses to move Torres sooner than later.
5. Paul DeJong, St. Louis Cardinals
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Why the Dodgers Should Be Interested
Let's now shift to actual shortstops the Dodgers could pursue, starting with a guy who was an impact two-way player as recently as 2019.
In addition to hitting 30 home runs that year, Paul DeJong also ranked fourth among all defenders after racking up 24 defensive runs saved. His total value checked out at 5.3 rWAR, good enough to qualify him as the fifth-best shortstop of the season.
Of course, to put the focus there is to move it away from the hard times DeJong has fallen on, as he's racked up just 2.4 rWAR over 235 games since 2020. He hit bottom in 2022, getting demoted to the minors in May as Tommy Edman took over at shortstop for the St. Louis Cardinals.
DeJong is nonetheless still only 29 years old with a contract that pays $9.2 million this year, followed by $27.5 million worth of options for 2024 and 2025. He's also trying out a new swing this spring, potentially making him that much more worthy of an upside play.
Availability Meter: Medium
There wasn't much buzz about a possible DeJong trade during the winter, which could hint that the Cardinals would rather not sell low on him. But since he's looking up at both Edman and Brendan Donovan in the middle of the infield, the Dodgers could probably get the Redbirds' attention if they called.
4. Isiah Kiner-Falefa, New York Yankees
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Why the Dodgers Should Be Interested
In Rojas, the Dodgers already have a shortstop who mainly specializes in slick defense with a secondary specialty in making contact at the plate. To these ends, also having Isiah Kiner-Falefa on the roster would be redundant.
But in Kiner-Falefa's defense, he's a bit more proven as a defensive rover. Even before he put up 20 defensive runs saved at shortstop over the last two seasons, he won a Gold Glove as a third baseman for the Texas Rangers in 2020 and had previously established himself as a catcher.
In addition to his penchant for making contact—his whiff rate was in the 99th percentile last year—Kiner-Falefa also offers some speed on offense. He stole 42 bases in 51 tries across 2021 and 2022, and that was obviously without the new speed-friendly regulations.
As Kiner-Falefa is earning just $6 million in his final season before free agency, still another appealing thing about the 27-year-old is that he's a low-cost rental who wouldn't be in Lux's way come the spring of 2024.
Availability Meter: High
Kiner-Falefa didn't even make it to the end of last year before he was benched in favor of up-and-comer Oswaldo Cabrera at shortstop. He's now competing with him and Oswald Peraza for the starting job at the position, so thinking the Yankees would hear the Dodgers out if they came calling hardly seems like a reach.
3. Nicky Lopez, Kansas City Royals
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Why the Dodgers Should Be Interested
If it's a defense-first infielder the Dodgers want to go after, they can't do any better than Nicky Lopez.
The 27-year-old was a revelation while playing pretty much exclusively at shortstop in 2021, tallying 26 outs above average to lead all defenders. He was more of a utility type last season, but he was still a plus defender wherever he played:
- Shortstop: 7 OAA
- Second Base: 4 OAA
- Third Base: 3 OAA
The downside is that Lopez is only a .252 hitter with all of five home runs for his career, spanning 451 games and 1,639 plate appearances. But he at least offers a strong bat-to-ball skill (88th percentile whiff rate in 2022) and a knack for stealing bags. He's swiped 35 in 39 tries over the last two seasons.
Lopez also comes with three more seasons of club control beyond 2023, though his $3.7 million salary for this season seems like a pathway to him landing on the pricier side for a player with his skill set.
Availability Meter: Medium
Per Rosenthal, the White Sox had interest in trading for Lopez as recently as late January. Though nothing came of that, one does wonder if the Kansas City Royals would be open to getting something for him in lieu of keeping him as a reserve underneath Bobby Witt Jr., Hunter Dozier and Michael Massey.
2. Taylor Walls, Tampa Bay Rays
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Why the Dodgers Should Be Interested
How good of a defender Taylor Walls is varies depending on the metric. Outs above average puts him at a total of minus-11 for 2022, whereas defensive runs saved puts him at plus-21 for his 1,104 career innings just at shortstop.
We lean toward buying into the latter. Defense was Walls' calling card as he was coming up through the minors after all, and the eye test is eye-popping indeed.
Less eye-popping is Walls' offensive track record, though some of his peripheral numbers help distract from the .182 average he's put up in 196 career games. Last year's 97th-percentile chase rate speaks to a keen eye for the zone, while his sprint speed landed in the 87th percentile.
Perhaps best of all, the 26-year-old Walls has another year of pre-arbitration-eligibility left. He won't be slated for free agency until after 2027. The Dodgers would thus have some time to mold him into something really worthwhile.
Availability Meter: Low
Walls is worth bringing up because he's blocked by Wander Franco at shortstop, but that's about it. The Rays can obviously use him at other positions besides short, and his contract status will keep him well within their price range for at least two more seasons.
1. Jorge Mateo, Baltimore Orioles
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Why the Dodgers Should Be Interested
It was practically forever ago that Jorge Mateo was a regular in top-100 prospect lists, so anyone who's lost track of his whereabouts can be forgiven.
The 27-year-old does, however, still have a few things going for him. Speed and defense are the big ones, as he's fresh off leading the American League with 35 stolen bases and putting up 14 defensive runs saved and 11 outs above average at shortstop.
Though Mateo hit just .221 in the process, some grace is warranted. It's indeed no wonder that he was significantly better on the road (.739 OPS) than at home (.550 OPS), where Oriole Park at Camden Yards' newly huge left-field dimensions did him no favors.
Mateo may therefore still have substantial upside beyond what he's shown. Between that and the $2 million he's earning this year with two additional years of club control still to go, he's a potential steal in a trade.
Availability Meter: Medium
The Orioles did get trade interest in Mateo during the winter, according to Rosenthal. That they didn't act on it may indicate that they have big plans for him in 2023, but the situation could perhaps change if Gunnar Henderson and Ramón Urías grab starting jobs at shortstop and third base, respectively.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
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