Best Team Fit, Projected Contract for the Top NFL Free Agent at Every Position
In the NFL, free agency is like a puzzle. Every team is looking for the missing piece—the player who will put them over the top. It's just a matter of finding the right fit.
Of course, the matter of fit doesn't just figure in from the team's perspective. As players look to begin the next stage of their career, there are multiple considerations, and the primary one can vary. For some, it's all about the Benjamins. For others, the opportunity to chase a ring is paramount. Some want to raise their families in a certain area or play for the team they idolized as kids.
Unfortunately, ideal fits don't come to pass more often than not. It takes quite a few pieces falling into place for a player to land in the perfect spot and only one thing going awry for things to fall apart.
Still, with free agency still a little ways off, now is the time for optimism. For hope. For pointing out the best fits for the top free agents at each position—and what contracts on those new teams might look like.
Author's Note: For the purposes of this article, the "top" free agents are those who will more likely than not be playing for new teams in 2023. Geno Smith may well be the best impending free-agent quarterback, but he's not leaving Seattle, so identifying a fit that isn't the Emerald City is rather a moot point.
QB Derek Carr: New York Jets
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Frankly, a pretty compelling argument can be made that Jimmy Garoppolo is the top available quarterback in free agency this year. He has certainly accomplished more during his professional career than Derek Carr.
Carr probably slots somewhere between Nos. 15 and 20 among quarterbacks on a good day...and most of 2022 was not a good day. Carr threw the fifth-most picks in the league last season and finished the campaign outside the top 20 in passer rating.
There's a reason the Raiders released the 31-year-old. That said, Carr isn't coming off a major injury and doesn't have Garoppolo's durability questions. So he's the best out there, or at least the best quarterback who will change teams.
Also, to be totally fair, I recently listed Carr when writing about signings that teams could come to regret. But if he's going to prove me wrong and succeed in a new home, he needs the right situation.
And as Eric Edholm wrote for NFL.com, the Jets could be an excellent fit.
"The Jets are a bit restricted in terms of salary-cap space at the moment, so there are some potential holdups here, but it's not hard to see how Carr could view them as an option to refresh his career," he said.
"The Jets have a good defense, some decent offensive line pieces, good running backs and some talented, young receivers. The AFC East remains a tough division until proven otherwise, and the NYC glare isn't for everyone, but it makes too much sense to include the Jets in the mix."
Frankly, the cap space isn't as big an issue as the offensive line, but by signing Carr as opposed to trading for Aaron Rodgers, the Jets can keep draft capital that can then be used to improve the the protection in front of Carr.
Given that Carr already had a "positive" visit with the Jets, all that's left here is figuring out how to make the math work on his contract.
Projected Contract: Three years, $111 million, $72 million guaranteed
RB Miles Sanders: Miami Dolphins
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To be clear, Miles Sanders isn't the best running back in this class. He isn't as good as Tony Pollard of the Cowboys, Josh Jacobs of the Raiders or Saquon Barkley of the Giants. But all three of those running backs are potentially prime candidates to receive the franchise tag.
That leaves Sanders as the best available running back set to change teams, because if his usage—or lack thereof—in Super Bowl LVII is any indication, his days in Philadelphia are over.
Sanders may have been a non-factor in the Super Bowl, but the regular season was a different story. Sanders carried the ball 259 times for 1,269 yards. Sanders was the first Eagles running back since LeSean McCoy in 2014 to eclipse 1,000 rushing yards, doing so while averaging 4.9 yards per carry and scoring 11 touchdowns.
The Eagles may be ready to move on, but there is no shortage of NFL teams who could benefit from a boost in the backfield, including one AFC East team with a glaring need.
Essentially, the entire Miami backfield is about to hit free agency, as Raheem Mostert, Jeff Wilson Jr. and Myles Gaskin are all slated to hit the open market. Miami has plenty of passing-game weapons, but the run game ranked 25th in the league, averaging just 99.2 yards per game.
Sanders wasn't much of a factor in the passing game last year, catching just 20 passes. But his 50 receptions as a rookie show that Sanders can play in a three-down role.
With more balance, the Dolphins offense could be that much more dangerous. An every-down role for a playoff team would be an ideal spot for Sanders to begin the next stage of his career.
Projected Contract: Three years, $23.5 million, $13 million guaranteed
WR Jakobi Meyers: Chicago Bears
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It's not easiest year to be in the market for wide receiver help in free agency, as this year's class is relatively low on star power. But that lack of options doesn't preclude teams from needing help at the position or from having money to spend in the search for it. That could actually be a good thing for the players at the top of this year's available options, and the best of the bunch may well be Jakobi Meyers.
Meyers hasn't posted huge numbers over his career. The 26-year-old found the end zone a career-high six times last season, but he has yet to record even 900 receiving yards in a season. To be fair, Meyers' statistical production wasn't helped by playing for a Patriots team that ranked 22nd in the NFL in pass attempts last year. But per Arjun Menon of Pro Football Focus, Meyers excelled at getting open in man coverage relative to this year's other free-agent wideouts, and PFF projected that Meyers could land $16 million a year on the open market.
That kind of hefty salary could price Meyers right out of New England. But as it turns out, it just so happens that the team with most cap space in the entire NFL also has a glaring need for help at wide receiver.
The Chicago Bears are sitting on a whopping $94.4 million in cap space and desperately need to get Justin Fields some passing-game weapons. They own the No. 1 pick in the draft, but they don't have another selection in the top 50, which likely puts them out of the running to add any of the top wideout prospects barring any trades.
Are the Bears the absolute ideal landing spot for Meyers? Maybe not. But he'd be just about guaranteed to surpass 100 targets in the Windy City, and the giant pile of money he'd get should make him feel right at home.
Projected Contract: Four years, $66.5 million, $38 million guaranteed
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TE Dalton Schultz: Los Angeles Chargers
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The Dallas Cowboys are facing some tough decisions in 2023. The team has a pair of important offensive contributors set to hit free agency in running back Tony Pollard and tight end Dalton Schultz. One of those players is a prime candidate for the franchise tag, but given the Cowboys' annually precarious salary-cap situation (Dallas is about $7 million in the red as things stand today) retaining the other could be problematic.
We have already highlighted Pollard as a candidate to be tagged, so that leaves Schultz as the odd man out, especially when you consider that Bob Sturm of the Athletic wrote that Schultz is seeking a contract that would make him one of the highest-paid tight ends in the league.
"I assume there is a number where Schultz makes sense, and I really like a lot of what he brings to the table," he said. "It's just that from what we understand, he wants top-of-the-TE-market-range money and the 'top five' range is still $14 million AAV (for four years is $56 million)."
The question then becomes to where.
Tight end isn't exactly a premium position, and the list of teams willing to spend upward of $15 million a season on one isn't especially long. However, there's a team that could offer him both a nice payday and another real chance for a ring.
Gerald Everett has been OK for the Chargers, but he hasn't been much more than that. Schultz is both a superior blocker and a more reliable receiver. Adding him to an already potent Chargers passing attack would put a smile on Justin Herbert's face and help close the gap on Kansas City in the AFC West.
Projected Contract: Three years, $40.1 million, $25.5 million guaranteed
OL Mike McGlinchey: Chicago Bears
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We have already mentioned that the Bears need to improve the passing-game weapons at Justin Fields' disposal. But there were just three NFL teams that allowed more sacks in 2022 than the 58 the Bears gave up. The overhaul needs to extend to the offensive line as well, especially to right tackle.
For Gene Chamberlain of Bears Digest, Mike McGlinchey of the 49ers reepresents the best offensive tackle who could be realistically available.
"McGlinchey is their best option at right tackle in free agency," he wrote. "He has always been a strong blocker in their wide zone. He has had seasons to remember and some to forget as a pass blocker. Highly mobile at 310 pounds and 6'8", he has the reach of a tackle who should be able to block the pass and is still young enough at 28 to warrant a longer-term signing."
McGlinchey admittedly struggled against powerful pass-rushers like Chris Jones of the Kansas City Chiefs and Aaron Donald of the Los Angeles Rams. But of the six sacks allowed by McGlinchey in 2022 per PFF, four came against those two players.
Is McGlinchey an elite tackle? Probably not, although at 28 it's possible that the five-year veteran's best football is ahead of him. But in terms of hurries and sacks allowed per game, McGlinchey's numbers have actually been comparable to Lane Johnson of the Philadelphia Eagles.
Given how badly the Bears need to get better in front of Fields, McGlinchey merits a big extension from a Chicago franchise flush with cap space.
And just as with Meyers, money talks.
Projected Contract: Four years, $62.5 million, $38 million guaranteed
DL Javon Hargrave: Seattle Seahawks
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Apparently, Javon Hargrave is a late bloomer. Over the first five seasons of his career with the Pittsburgh Steelers and Philadelphia Eagles, Hargrave tallied 19.5 sacks—a decent amount, but nothing to write home about.
However, over the past two seasons, Hargrave has been one of the most prolific pass-rushing tackles in the league. Over that span, Hargrave has amassed 18.5 sacks, including a career-best 11.5 during the Eagles' run to Super Bowl LVII.
In a perfect world, the Eagles would keep Hargrave. But with Philly staring down the barrel of a massive contract extension for quarterback Jalen Hurts, Hargrave is a luxury the Eagles may not be able to afford, especially with an in-house replacement like Jordan Davis waiting in the wings.
There will be no shortage of teams with ample cap space who could have interest in Hargrave, including the Atlanta Falcons, Chicago Bears and Houston Texans. But we're talking about ideal landing spots here, and there's another destination that could be even more appealing for the soon-to-be 30-year-old.
The Seattle Seahawks made the playoffs in 2022, but they did so less because of the defensive line than in spite of it. Seattle was 30th against the run last season and was consistently beaten up the middle. Corbin Smith of All Seahawks believes Hargrave could help fix that.
"An athletic 305-pound menace in the trenches who can wreak havoc in multiple alignments, he would be an absolute game changer for the Seahawks if he becomes available and the team finds a way to pay the price for his services," Smith said.
With $31 million in cap space, the Seahawks have the coin to make a splash signing, and they can offer Hargrave the opportunity to play for a contender in 2023.
Projected Contract: Three years, $61.2 million, $40.25 million guaranteed
Edge Yannick Ngakoue: Cincinnati Bengals
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It's entirely possible that for the first time in a long time, edge-rusher Yannick Ngakoue might not be changing teams in 2023. Ngakoue tallied 9.5 sacks in 2022 with the Indianapolis Colts, drawing raves from defensive coordinator Gus Bradley back in December.
"I've seen him really grow through the year," Bradley said, via Drake Wally of Horseshoe Huddle. "He's really working hard at it. He's taking extra reps in practice. It's good to see that his hard work is coming to fruition some and he's becoming a more well-rounded player versus the run, versus the pass. He's a guy that's just like everybody else, he wants more."
However, that "wanting more" part could be the problem. Ngakoue is arguably the best edge-rusher in a relatively unimpressive class of free agents, and after playing for five teams in the past four seasons, a change of scenery would be nothing new for the 27-year-old.
Ngakoue hasn't been a player who will post truly gaudy numbers, as he's hit the 10-sack mark just twice in his career. But he has been consistent. In fact, those 9.5 sacks in 2022 made so that he's recorded at least eight sacks in each of his first seven seasons—a feat that has been accomplished just five times in the history of the NFL.
The Cincinnati Bengals have a lot going for them after coming within a game of a second successive Super Bowl this past year. But the pass rush wasn't one of those positives, as only three teams logged fewer sacks than the 30 the Bengals amassed.
Ngakoue isn't great against the run, but he could offer the Bengals some pop off the edge on passing downs. Conversely, the Bengals could offer Ngakoue his best chance to win since the Jaguars made the AFC Championship Game in Ngakoue's second season.
Projected Contract: Three years, $45.5 million, $27.5 million guaranteed
LB T.J. Edwards: New York Giants
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There's quite a bit of talent set to hit free agency at the linebacker position this year. However, much of that talent may not be going anywhere. There has been no shortage of speculation that the Bills will make a serious effort to retain Tremaine Edmunds. Even if the Tampa Bay Buccaneers do begin a rebuild, Lavonte David may not be interested in switching teams this late in his career.
However, much like with Javon Hargrave, the Eagles potentially already have a replacement for T.J. Edwards on the roster in second-year pro Nakobe Dean. Edwards could be allowed to test the waters in free agency.
If that occurs, quite a few teams would be well-served to consider making him an offer, including one of the teams the Eagles knocked out of the playoffs this past season.
The Giants took a major step forward in 2022 and made the postseason, but the run defense was a major liability. New York was 27th in the league in run defense, largely because the Giants' linebacker corps was maybe the weakest in the entire NFL.
As Nick Falato wrote for Big Blue View, Edwards would be a durable and capable upgrade that wouldn't break the bank.
"Edwards is an instinctual defender with excellent discipline and processing ability," he said. "He's tough and dependable as well, only missing some time in 2020 with a hamstring injury. In his four years as an Eagle, he's compiled 389 tackles, 20 for a loss, 5 sacks, 13 passes defended, 2 interceptions, and 2 forced fumbles. He only has a missed tackle rate of 8.6 percent in his career."
Bringing back Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley might be the two biggest priorities for the Giants this year, but upgrading at linebacker isn't far behind.
Edwards would be a great fit in that regard.
Projected Contract: Four years, $49 million, $30 million guaranteed
CB Jamel Dean: Arizona Cardinals
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There are few better places for a young cornerback to be than at the top of his class entering free agency. It's a premium position where a player can land a massive contract. And as Jonathan Macri wrote for Pro Football Focus, in terms of that site's grading system, there's little question that Jamel Dean is this year's No. 1 option for teams looking to bolster the secondary.
"Among cornerbacks who have played at least 500 coverage snaps and more than one season over the past four years, only Jaire Alexander (91.7) and Jalen Ramsey (90.4) have a higher combined coverage grade than Dean (89.9) heading into 2023," Macri said. "With the Buccaneers likely up against the cap this offseason, Dean will potentially earn the biggest contract of his career elsewhere."
In a sense, Dean has something else working for him as well. Thanks in no small part to Tom Brady, Dean already won a Super Bowl. So while every player wants to win, chasing a ring might well take a back seat to landing a contract that will give Dean and his family financial security for the rest of their lives.
Meanwhile, there are great changes underway with the Arizona Cardinals. There's a new head coach in Jonathan Gannon. There will be a new defensive coordinator in Nick Rallis. And there could be a revamped secondary—Byron Murphy, Antonio Hamilton and Jace Whittaker are all set to hit free agency.
With $13.7 million in cap space and free agents of their own like defensive lineman Zach Allen to re-sign, finding the money for a Dean contract will take some doing.
But Gannon needs someone to anchor his secondary, and given Tampa's cap issues, there is effectively no chance the Buccaneers can afford to retain him.
Projected Contract: Four years, $67.75 million, $40 million guaranteed
S Jessie Bates: Atlanta Falcons
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Over his five seasons in the NFL, Jessie Bates has grown into one of the league's better deep safeties. In each of his first three seasons, Bates surpassed 100 total tackles. He has 14 career interceptions and has missed just two games in five years.
However, as well has Bates has played in Cincinnati, his time in the Queen City is almost certainly at an end. After the Bengals applied the franchise tag to Bates last season, the two sides were unable to agree on an extension. Bates spent most of training camp holding out, and the Bengals used their first pick last year on Daxton Hill—Bates' presumptive replacement.
While Bates will be switching teams in the offseason, there's an upside—the 25-year-old is No. 2 among non-quarterbacks in Brad Spielberger's list of the top 100 free agents of 2023 at Pro Football Focus. There will be no shortage of teams with interest in a versatile, durable defensive back with Bates' skill set who is just now entering his prime.
And at least one team has already (unofficially) expressed interest—or at least its players have.
As James Rapien reported for All Bengals, Bates and agent David Mulugheta were recently spotted having dinner with several Falcons players, including tight end Kyle Pitts and cornerbacks Casey Hayward and AJ Terrell.
Now, it's worth pointing out that Mulugheta represents all four players. But it's not hard to imagine dinner conversation turning toward the possibility of joining the Falcons in free agency.
If winning is Bates' primary motivation, then a rebuilding Falcons team doesn't exactly classify as an "ideal" fit. But with $55.8 million in cap space, Atlanta has the cash to make Bates one of the highest-paid safeties in the NFL. The Falcons also have a glaring need at the back end of the NFL's 25th-ranked pass defense.
Considering need and cap space, fits don't get much better than this.
Projected Contract: Four years, $64.5 million, $41 million guaranteed
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