NFL Free Agents Teams Will Regret Spending Big Money On
We're just over a week past Super Bowl LVII, which means the NFL offseason is about to kick into full swing.
In less than two weeks, the best and brightest of this year's draft class will descend on Indianapolis for the 2023 NFL Scouting Combine. By March 7, teams must decide whether to apply the franchise or transition tag to any of their impending free agents. The "legal tampering" period then begins on March 13 ahead of the "official" beginning of free agency two days later.
Come mid-March, there will be a dizzying array of signings. Dozens of players will change teams. Hundreds of millions of dollars will be doled out in contracts. Some of those deals will be hailed as bargains. Some who sign massive deals will live up to their lofty salaries.
But as is the case every year, some players will sign contracts that their new teams grow to regret.
Sometimes it's a matter of teams overspending on a premium position like quarterback or offensive tackle. Sometimes teams get caught up in a bidding war at a position where the pool of available talent is shallow.
Whatever the reason, each of the players listed here has a red flag that serves notice to teams to brush up on their Latin. Caveat Emptor and all.
QB Derek Carr
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There are two types of teams in the NFL: those who already have a franchise quarterback and those who do not. Teams in the latter group will talk themselves into doing some wacky stuff—see: Carson Wentz over the last two seasons.
The New York Jets have already kicked the tires this offseason on Derek Carr. The New Orleans Saints have been linked to the 31-year-old as well. Those won't be the only two teams who take a run at Carr. The more teams that show interest, the bigger his contract is likely to get.
But whichever team hands Carr a truck full of cheddar is likely to get Wentz'd.
Last year, Carr was 14th leaguewide in passing yards (3,522), which is neither terrible nor great. However, he was 30th in completion percentage (60.8), 24th in passer rating (86.3), tied for third in interceptions (14) and tied for 18th in yards per attempt (7.0).
Those numbers shouldn't inspire any team to hand Carr a contract worth $40-plus million annually. And make no mistake, that's entirely possible. Spotrac estimates his new deal will average $37.7 million per season.
For his career, Carr is 16 games below .500 as a starter and has made one postseason start in nine years. In other words, while Carr may not be a bad quarterback, he isn't an especially good one, either.
And handing him $35-$40 million a season is a risky bet.
RB Josh Jacobs
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Josh Jacobs is coming off the best season of his NFL career. The Las Vegas Raiders tailback led the league with 1,653 rushing yards and averaged a robust 4.9 yards per carry.
Given his choice, Jacobs has made it clear that he'd prefer to stay in Sin City—if the money is right.
"For me, it's got to make sense," he told reporters after the season. "But this is obviously where I want to be. Coming in, I remember sitting down with [defensive end] Maxx [Crosby] and all these guys and talking about the Raiders organization and the culture and wanting to be part of the change. I still feel that way so, hopefully, I'll be back."
But when Tashan Reed of The Athletic later asked Jacobs how he'd feel if the Raiders franchise-tagged him in lieu of a long-term deal, he replied: "Hero turned villain.
Jacobs has since softened that stance, but the Raiders need to be willing to call his bluff. Giving any running back a big-money, long-term contract is bad business in today's NFL.
Prior to this past season, Jacobs had never gained more than 1,150 rushing yards in a season. He also amassed a whopping 393 total touches in 2022, and the history of running backs who have at least 370 touches in a season is littered with disappointing campaigns the following year.
It's also a bad idea for the New York Giants to give Saquon Barkley a long-term deal. The same goes with the Dallas Cowboys and Tony Pollard, who is recovering from a high ankle sprain and fractured fibula that required surgery.
But given the Raiders' myriad other needs—including a massive hole at quarterback—a huge extension for Jacobs would be the worst idea of the lot.
WR Allen Lazard
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It's a rough year to be in the market for wide receiver help in free agency. This year's class is neither especially deep nor especially talented, with no high-end talents available.
That may be bad news for NFL teams looking to bolster their passing-game weaponry, but it could be good news for wideouts like Green Bay's Allen Lazard and New England's Jakobi Meyers. Teams still have holes to fill and money to spend, and Lazard and Meyers are the headliners of this year's free-agent wideout crop.
The problem is that dearth of talent is going to force teams to reach. Clubs will likely talk themselves into believing that Lazard can be more than a complementary piece. And although he had a career-best season in 2022, it became painfully evident last year that Lazard just isn't that sort of player.
"Lazard's forced attempt to be a No. 1 receiver was mostly a failure, even if he remained an efficient and reliable weapon in the passing game and an important and versatile part of the blocking plan in the run game," Zach Kruse of Packers Wire wrote. "Lazard had a touchdown catch or at least 50 receiving yards in 12 of his 15 games, but he also finished with 75 or more receiving yards in just three games. He ranked tied for 51st in the NFL in catches, 39th in receiving yards and tied for 24th in touchdown catches. Of his six touchdown catches, five came during the first eight weeks."
Spotrac estimates Lazard's annual market value to be $12.5 million. That doesn't appear to be an overpay given the gonzo salaries wide receivers get in today's NFL.
But Lazard has never had even 800 receiving yards in a season. He's caught over 50 passes just once. And that was playing with Aaron Rodgers for five years.
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OT Isaiah Wynn
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There are few things better to be in the NFL than a young offensive tackle heading into free agency. Even mediocre tackles often receive well over $10 million per season as free agents.
When you're a first-round pick just entering your prime? Your agent is about to be delighted.
Spotrac projects New England Patriots tackle Isaiah Wynn to be worth an estimated $15.4 million per season. But after a disastrous 2022 season, it's fair to wonder whether Wynn should see that kind of payday, as NESN's Dakota Randall wrote:
"The first two months [of the 2022 season] saw the 27-year-old rank among the league leaders in penalties, give up an alarming amount of quarterback pressures and get benched on multiple occasions. Wynn again was the subject of trade rumors before the November deadline, leading to an awkward and heated exchange with a reporter in the locker room. After playing in a limited role against the New York Jets in Week 11, Wynn saw the rest of his season wiped out by various injuries."
Despite how badly Wynn played last year, some team is bound to talk itself into believing that it can fix the 27-year-old. But he allowed four sacks and was called for nine penalties in only 423 snaps last year, according to Pro Football Focus. The year before, he surrendered six sacks and was called for nine penalties in 915 snaps.
Wynn might not be as bad as he looked last year, but he has shown little to indicate that he'll ever be more than an average tackle. NFL teams almost always regret paying average (at best) tackles north of $15 million per season.
DT Daron Payne
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Da'Ron Payne had a fantastic season with the Washington Commanders in 2022. He amassed a career-high 64 total tackles and 11.5 sacks en route to his first Pro Bowl nod.
With the No. 13 pick of the 2018 NFL draft coming off a career year, interest in Payne will likely be robust. Spotrac projects his average annual value to be $19.4 million, and Brad Spielberger of Pro Football Focus singled him out as the player whom the Commanders can least afford to lose.
"Payne's 48 quarterback pressures in 2022 ranked ninth among interior defenders, as he's developed into a solid pass rusher over his first five seasons," Spielberger wrote. "At the least, Washington should place the franchise tag on Payne and either field trade offers or let things play out again in 2024."
Franchise-tagging Payne would cost the Commanders $18.9 million in 2023, but that's by far their best option. They've invested a ton of draft capital in their defensive line in recent years, and the bill is coming due.
Tackle Jonathan Allen has already signed a massive extension. Edge-rusher Montez Sweat is heading into the final year of his rookie deal. The Commanders still have to decide whether to pick up Chase Young's fifth-year option, too. There's only so much long-term money Washington can sink into its defensive line without gaps opening elsewhere on the roster.
A $20 million defensive lineman needs to be more than good. He has to wreak havoc and take over games. While Payne did so in 2022, he had only 14.5 sacks over his first four seasons combined.
Paying huge money for one big season has backfired on NFL teams plenty of times before.
Edge Jadeveon Clowney
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After clashing with coaches and getting sent home late in the season, Jadeveon Clowney made it clear that his time with the Cleveland Browns has ended.
"(The Browns) have their own guys, and I ain't one of them, so it's time for me to get my exit slip," Clowney said. "I just feel like I need to be around somebody that believes in me and my ability. (It can't) just be me believing in myself. I believe in myself more than anybody."
Much like at wide receiver, the free-agent pickings at edge-rusher are slim this offseason. That could drive Clowney's asking price close to (or even over) the $10 million he made in Cleveland in 2022.
That's where things would get dicey.
Clowney was the first overall pick in the 2014 NFL draft, and he tallied nine sacks with the Browns in 2021. He has been an excellent edge-setter for much of his career and has been named a Pro Bowler three times.
However, the last of those Pro Bowl nods came back in 2018. Clowney has never recorded 10 sacks in a season. His 2022 numbers were mostly awful (28 total tackles, two sacks). And Clowney's grousing in Cleveland would appear to indicate that he expects to be treated like the star he no longer is.
Someone will take a chance on the 30-year-old, if only because of a lack of viable alternatives. But anything more than a one-year, prove-it deal is asking to be disappointed.
LB Tremaine Edmunds
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Given that Tremaine Edmunds has already played five seasons in the NFL, it's easy to forget that he's still only 24 years old. In the opinion of Buffalo Bills general manager Brandon Beane, that's partly because Edmunds doesn't play like a 24-year-old.
"He's just been amazing to watch his growth from a 19-year-old," Beane said, per Mark Gaughan of the Buffalo News. "I mean, it's not like he's 29, he's still a kid. He is a young man. But very proud of who he is. And you can just see his maturation."
Edmunds has topped 100 tackles in each of his five seasons in Buffalo. The Bills are prioritizing retaining him this offseason, per Gaughan, which makes sense given how well they've played together defensively over the past few years.
However, Gaughan postulated that Edmunds new contract could run between $15-17 million per season. That could be problematic for Buffalo.
After signing Josh Allen to a six-year, $258 million extension last offseason, the Bills are now living with the financial realities that come with paying a superstar quarterback. Buffalo has already made a significant financial investment in Matt Milano as well, so tying up around $30 million per season in two off-ball linebackers would create deficiencies elsewhere.
It's also fair to wonder if Edmunds would be as effective on a defense that isn't as loaded as Buffalo's. He hasn't surpassed 120 tackles since his rookie season, and he has allowed a passer rating north of 105 in two of the last three years.
Edmunds is a talented young player, but that doesn't mean he merits a top-five payday among linebackers.
CB Jonathan Jones
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The New England Patriots possess an uncanny knack for turning undrafted free agents into quality starters at cornerback, whether it was Malcolm Butler or J.C. Jackson. Last year, it was Jonathan Jones' turn.
Playing boundary corner for the first time in his career, Jones posted 69 total tackles and a career-high four interceptions while allowing a rock-solid passer rating against of only 73.0.
During an appearance on the Next Pats Podcast (via Bernd Buchmasser of Pats Pulpit), Jones said he's hopeful that he will be able to remain in the only NFL home he has ever known.
"I would hope so," he said. "That's where I spent my career. It's what I know. It's what I love. New England is home for me in that aspect. So, we'll see. We'll see how free agency turns out, and we'll take it from there."
However, that may be easier said than done.
When it came time for Butler's big payday, it came in Tennessee. When it was time for Jackson to receive a massive raise, it came from the Los Angeles Chargers. With Spotrac projected Jones' average annual value to be north of $12 million, the Pats may well decide that a homegrown talent has yet again become too expensive to keep.
If they do, prospective suitors would be advised to proceed with caution. Butler's three seasons with the Titans were mostly disappointing. Jackson's first year in Los Angeles was an injury-marred mess. And even during his breakout 2022 campaign, bigger wide receivers took advantage of Jones' 5'10" frame over the second half of the season.
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