1 Player from Each MLB Team with the Biggest Bust Potential for 2023
From breakout stars looking to prove their play during the 2022 MLB season was the real deal to players nearing the end of their careers and everything in between, we've identified the one player on each MLB team with the most potential to be a bust in 2023.
When we nominate a player as a possible "bust," we're not necessarily saying we think that player will have a bad season. In most cases, we anticipate some regression from where they finished 2022 because of age, injury history or because the predictive metrics suggest last season was fluky.
But some players on this list were major offseason acquisitions and might be considered busts if they fall short of the hype in their new threads and miss the postseason.
Teams have been split up by division and listed alphabetically within each division, beginning with the AL East and ending in the NL West.
American League East
1 of 6
Baltimore Orioles: LHP Cionel Pérez
After posting a 6.04 ERA from 2018 to 2021, Pérez had an incredible 2022 campaign out of nowhere. He made 66 appearances with a 1.40 ERA and led the O's with 25 holds. As closer Félix Bautista works his way back from both a left knee injury and a right shoulder issue, Pérez might be the de facto closer to start the season. But given he had both an xERA (3.62) and xFIP (3.56) more than two runs higher than his ERA and struggled in prior seasons, that might end poorly for the O's.
Boston Red Sox: 3B/DH Justin Turner
In a trade that wasn't actually a trade, the Red Sox allowed J.D. Martinez to leave for the Dodgers on a one-year, $10 million deal, replacing him at DH with former Dodger Justin Turner on a two-year, $21.7 million deal*. Turner has had a solid career, but if Boston was worried about Martinez being past his prime after turning 35 in August, signing up for two seasons of 38-year-old Turner was certainly a decision. His OPS has been steadily decreasing, from .945 in 2017 to .788 last year.
New York Yankees: OF Aaron Judge
Don't misinterpret this as some sort of bold prediction that Judge will have a disastrous 2023 campaign, but after posting one of the best hitting seasons of all time and then signing a $360 million contract, the potential for a bust year is off the charts. Judge could have a well-above-average season on par with what he accomplished in 2021 (.287/.373/.544 with 39 home runs), and it would still feel like a letdown after he mashed 62 home runs in six months.
Tampa Bay Rays: RHP Zach Eflin
The Rays historically don't make big splashes in free agency. Giving Eflin a three-year, $40 million deal this offseason was the second-biggest signing (in terms of average annual value) in franchise history, behind only the two-year, $30 million contract they gave Charlie Morton after 2018. Morton delivered with a third-place finish for the 2019 AL Cy Young. Can Eflin do the same? And could the Rays still contend in the AL East if they don't get an All-Star-worthy season from the pitcher who makes up more than one-sixth of their 2023 payroll?
Toronto Blue Jays: OF Daulton Varsho
The Blue Jays traded from their depth at catcher when they sent catcher Gabriel Moreno and outfielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr. to the Diamondbacks in exchange for Varsho. Still, trading two starter-caliber players to get one back puts a lot of pressure on that one starter to succeed. While Varsho had a solid 2022 campaign with 27 home runs and 16 stolen bases, his career .306 on-base percentage isn't promising. Hopefully he at least fortifies Toronto's poor outfield defense from last season.
*Turner's contract with Boston is technically a one-year, $8.3 million contract with a player option for $13.4 million in 2024. If he opts not to return to Boston next season, the Red Sox would still owe him a $6.7 million buyout. So, it's either a one-year, $15 million deal or a two-year, $21.7 million deal.
American League Central
2 of 6
Chicago White Sox: RHP Dylan Cease
The White Sox ace led the majors with 78 walks in 2022, this after leading the AL in wild pitches in 2021 and topping the AL in walks in 2020. Cease has been effectively wild, racking up a ton of strikeouts and posting a pristine 2.20 ERA last year. Save for the legendary Nolan Ryan, though, not many starting pitchers can consistently get away with a career walk rate north of four batters per nine innings. Cease had a career-high left-on-base percentage and a career-low home run rate last year. We'll see if that continues.
Cleveland Guardians: 2B Andrés Giménez
Giménez was unofficially the MLB breakout player of the year in 2022, batting .297 with 17 home runs and 20 stolen bases, one year removed from hitting .218 as part of a middle-infield platoon. Can he maintain it? It wasn't long ago that José Ramírez went from three years as a part-time player with a .239 batting average to an annual AL MVP candidate. But after Giménez posted one of the highest BABIPs in the majors, some regression is likely.
Detroit Tigers: OF Riley Greene
Speaking of noteworthy BABIPs, Greene's .354 mark was even higher than Giménez's .353. Much worse, Greene (along with Chris Taylor and Brandon Marsh) was one of just three players who made at least 400 plate appearances with a batting average (.253) at least 100 points worse than his BABIP. Even for a highly touted rookie who hit .291 in his minor league career, that is a problematic gap. Two of the three largest such gaps of 2021 belonged to Yoán Moncada and Javier Báez, each of whom took a gigantic step backward in 2022.
Kansas City Royals: RHP Dylan Coleman
Not many bust candidates to be found in Kansas City after a brutal 2022 season, but perhaps this middle reliever fits the bill after he posted a 2.78 ERA in 68 innings in his first full season in the majors. Coleman had a strong run through the minors, posting a sub-3.30 ERA in each of 2018, 2019 and 2021. But he had an xFIP of 4.38 last season, largely because he walked nearly 13 percent of batters faced. He'll need to get his control under control.
Minnesota Twins: SS Carlos Correa
Both the Giants and Mets were afraid Correa's body would break down over the course of a 12- or 13-year deal, but maybe it happens in the first season of his six-year, $200 million deal with the Twins. That's highly unlikely, but Correa is under a lot of pressure after all the offseason drama for a second consecutive year. (He bet on himself last winter with a one-year, $35.1 million deal with two seasons' worth of player options attached.)
American League West
3 of 6
Houston Astros: RHP Ryne Stanek
Stanek was a late-inning machine for the World Series champs, posting a 1.15 ERA during the regular season before logging three hitless and scoreless innings in the postseason. But he walked 5.1 batters per nine innings, on par with his career rate of 4.7. He had a minuscule ERA because he had much better luck keeping the ball in the yard, allowing just two home runs in 54.2 innings. If the long ball returns, his effectiveness will fade, as evidenced by the 3.95 xFIP last year.
Los Angeles Angels: 2B Brandon Drury
Prior to last season, Drury had a career bWAR of negative-0.6. But after a great four-month run in Cincinnati and a not-terrible two-month stint in San Diego, the utility journeyman got a two-year, $17 million contract from the Angels. If he comes close to repeating his 2022 production, it'll be worth every penny. If he reverts to 2015-21 form, though, it becomes that much harder to finally get Shohei Ohtani to the postseason.
Oakland A's: RHP Trevor May
Save opportunities figure to be few and far between for the A's. When they do present themselves, though, Trevor May—the most expensive player on the payroll at $7 million—should be in line for those closing duties. May has saved 12 games in six seasons as a reliever, but this will be the 33-year-old's first chance to lock down the gig. If he thrives in the ninth inning, buckle up for all the trade rumors for this righty on a one-year deal.
Seattle Mariners: OF Jarred Kelenic
He's only 23, so to suggest this is his last chance in the majors would be premature. However, the No. 6 overall pick of the 2018 draft has had a brutal first two seasons in Seattle, triple-slashing .168/.251/.338. If it's more of the same in 2023, the M's brought in AJ Pollock, Teoscar Hernández and Tommy La Stella this offseason and could make do without Kelenic. While it might not bust Seattle's playoff dreams, another bad season could leave him irreparably labeled as a bust.
Texas Rangers: LHP Martín Pérez
While the peripheral numbers (3.27 FIP, 3.59 xERA) would have you believe Pérez's All-Star campaign in 2022 was no fluke, it came out of nowhere after eight consecutive years with an ERA north of 4.35. Rather than parlay that unexpected success into a multiyear deal, Pérez accepted the one-year, $19.65 million qualifying offer, likely with hopes of having another strong season in advance of a massive contract next winter. It's a gamble for both Pérez and the Rangers, though Texas added a bunch of starting pitching, just in case.
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National League East
4 of 6
Atlanta Braves: SS Vaughn Grissom
Atlanta tried to re-sign Dansby Swanson, but it wasn't desperate to do so with Vaughn Grissom waiting in the wings. After a 41-game audition last season, it's the 22-year-old's job to lose. He shouldn't be a bust, as he excelled every step of the way through Atlanta's farm system before shining in the majors. But if he does have a sophomore slump, it would feel like a big bust after Atlanta put all its shortstop eggs in the Grissom basket.
Miami Marlins: RHP Edward Cabrera
After trading both Pablo López and Elieser Hernandez this offseason, the Marlins should have room for Cabrera to open the year in the rotation. If he can stay healthy—which has been an issue over the past few years—he could be an All-Star. Both xERA (4.05) and xFIP (4.12) put him well north of his 3.01 ERA last season, but he looked the part of a future ace on several occasions. Major boom or bust potential here, as Cabrera could dictate whether the Marlins put up a fight in the loaded NL East.
New York Mets: LHP José Quintana
In 2022—particularly the final two months spent in St. Louis—Quintana was outstanding. In the five years prior, though, he had a 4.51 ERA and lost his job as a starter. He was a $2 million reclamation project for the Pirates, and now he's a two-year, $26 million key cog in the loaded Mets rotation. Will he repeat last year's performance, or will the Mets have to turn to the likes of Tylor Megill, Joey Lucchesi, David Peterson and Elieser Hernandez for spot starts in Quintana's stead?
Philadelphia Phillies: OF Brandon Marsh
As previously noted, Marsh had one of the worst BABIP/AVG splits in the majors last year, batting .245 despite a .360 average on balls in play. The split was even worse in 2021 at .254 and .403, respectively. That's a product of striking out on roughly 35 percent of trips to the plate, and Marsh could drop below the Mendoza Line if that BABIP trickles down toward the MLB average of .290 last year. If that happens, is his range/glove in center enough to make up for a black hole in the lineup?
Washington Nationals: 1B/OF Joey Meneses
The Meneses Experience was all kinds of fun last year. A 30-year-old rookie finally making the big leagues...and thriving to the tune of a .324/.367/.563 triple slash? That's not even believable as a movie script. But can he come close to repeating it, or was it a two-month flash in the pan for a guy who never would've gotten the call if the Nationals hadn't shipped out both Juan Soto and Josh Bell? Here's hoping for a repeat, because those of us in the DC metro area need something worth watching this year.
National League Central
5 of 6
Chicago Cubs: CF Cody Bellinger
Chicago made a bunch of gambles this offseason in bringing in Bellinger, Eric Hosmer, Trey Mancini and others fresh off disappointing 2022 campaigns, but the biggest risk is $17.5 million on Bellinger. The 2019 NL MVP has been a mess over the past three years with a .272 on-base percentage. He hit 19 home runs and stole 14 bases last season, though, and maybe the change of scenery will provide the spark he needs.
Cincinnati Reds: RHP Alexis Díaz
Díaz received NL Rookie of the Year consideration in 2022, making 59 appearances with a 1.84 ERA for seven wins and 10 saves. But among the 347 pitchers who logged at least 50 innings, his BABIP against was the second-lowest in the majors at .178—after he posted marks above .325 in each of the previous four seasons in the minors. Díaz also walked 13 percent of batters faced, so the regression could be severe.
Milwaukee Brewers: OF Garrett Mitchell
Mitchell's BABIP/AVG splits in 2022 were absurd. He had a 101-point difference in 44 Double-A games, a 102-point difference in 20 Triple-A games and an astounding 237-point difference in 68 MLB plate appearances. Hate to call anyone lucky at the dish, but those were fortunate numbers for the 24-year-old rookie. If he regresses, Milwaukee's outfield situation—where career .241 hitter Tyrone Taylor also figures to be a near-everyday starter—could be a problem.
Pittsburgh Pirates: LHP Rich Hill
Of all the spots for Pittsburgh to loosen the purse strings, paying $8 million for a starting pitcher who will turn 43 before Opening Day was a most unexpected one. Hill is nowhere near the strikeout artist he was before turning 40, and his ERA has gone from 2.45 to 3.03 to 3.86 to 4.27 over the past three seasons. Even if he stays healthy enough to make 30 starts, will he be effective enough to justify making 30 starts?
St. Louis Cardinals: RHP Adam Wainwright
A less elderly version of Hill, Wainwright will turn 42 in August and keeps defying the predictive metrics in spite of a fastball that sits at 88.1 mph these days. Does Uncle Charlie have one more solid year in him after giving the Cardinals a 3.71 ERA in 2022, or is this when Father Time catches up to him? The only pitchers in the past nine years to log at least 70 innings in an age-41 (or later) season were Hill, R.A. Dickey and Bartolo Colon.
National League West
6 of 6
Arizona Diamondbacks: 3B Evan Longoria
The good news for the Diamondbacks is that Longoria isn't their only option at third base. Nor was it an expensive risk to bring in the 37-year-old on a one-year, $4 million deal. If nothing else, he brings experience to a lineup loaded with young hitters. But Longoria has missed nearly as many games as he has played over the past two seasons and almost has to be viewed as a guy who will make multiple trips to the injured list.
Colorado Rockies: RHP Daniel Bard
It's hard to blame the Rockies for wanting to re-sign Bard to a two-year, $19 million contract. Pitchers who can record outs in Colorado aren't exactly a dime a dozen. Still, we're talking about a closer who turns 38 in June who had a 4.78 ERA and 1.52 WHIP for Colorado in 2020 and 2021 before experiencing much better luck on balls put in play in 2022. A second consecutive season with more than 10 times as many saves as blown saves feels unlikely.
Los Angeles Dodgers: RHP Yency Almonte
After sputtering through a "he can't possibly be that bad" season in 2021 with Colorado, Almonte overcorrected with a "he can't possibly be that good" season for the Dodgers. In 33 appearances, he posted a 1.02 ERA, notably with a BABIP (.186) more than 100 points lower than in any of his previous four seasons. With so many established arms in that bullpen, though, Los Angeles likely won't need to test Almonte's mettle in high-leverage situations.
San Diego Padres: SS Xander Bogaerts
The ultimate boom or bust situation, right? Not only did the Padres pony up $280 million for Bogaerts, but they'll also push their $340 million former shortstop (Fernando Tatis Jr.) into the outfield to make room for his glove. Long-term, maybe Manny Machado opts out of his deal after this season and they can try a Bogaerts-Tatis left side of the infield for the subsequent decade. But if Bogaerts doesn't live up to the hype in year one in San Diego, it could be viewed as an expensive failed experiment.
San Francisco Giants: OF/DH Michael Conforto
After whiffing on the Aaron Judge negotiations and then backing out of the Carlos Correa deal, San Francisco's "big" offseason move was a one-year, $18 million contract (plus a one-year player option for 2024) with Conforto, similar to the deal it struck with Carlos Rodón last year. But at least Rodón arrived in the Bay Area fresh off a fantastic season with the White Sox. Conforto didn't even play last year because of a shoulder injury, and he struggled in 2021 with a career-worst .384 slugging percentage.
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