1 Free Agent Every NBA Team Should Be Targeting After the Trade Deadline
Goodbye, NBA trade deadline. Hello, free-agency speculation.
Yes, we still have the rest of the regular season and playoffs and then the draft to get through. No, free-agency chitchat is not out of turn.
Teams are already thinking about the summer. We can, too.
Assigning free-agent targets to each squad is admittedly difficult at the moment. So much can change for everyone, both financially and competitively, between now and June 30. Trades go down around the draft. Money is cleared from the books. Trajectories shift. Draft picks reshape roster needs.
Everything discussed here is fluid—subject to tinkering in the coming months. Treat this exercise as a look at who teams should prioritize if the season ended today relative to their roster needs and spending power.
That last part is important. We're striving to be realistic, so current cap sheets will dictate which players each squad can feasibly afford. For clarity's sake, we've included a projected spending range for every team.
Obtainability will also be a factor. The Toronto Raptors could not reasonably fork over a first-round pick for Jakob Poeltl at the trade deadline if they didn't plan to aggressively re-sign him. That inherently drives down his gettability. Players who seem like locks to stay put will be excluded from consideration. The same goes for any player options, team options and non-guarantees that won't be declined or waived. (I.E. We're assuming the Los Angeles Lakers will pick up Malik Beasley's team option and guarantee Jarred Vanderbilt's contract.)
Finally, in the interest of variety, incumbent free agents won't be eligible for inclusion. We'll discuss key flight risks and hypotheticals galore wherever appropriate. For the most part, though, we're spotlighting gettable outside free agents who best fit the current makeup and direction of each franchise.
Atlanta Hawks: Jalen McDaniels
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Likely Spending Range: Mini MLE
The Atlanta Hawks can bump up their spending range if Bogdan Bogdanović (player option) leaves in free agency or they finally, at long last, move John Collins while turning him into a smaller number. Neither scenario should be counted upon.
Bogdanović might not even hit the open market, and Atlanta cannot afford to just peace-out on his three-point volume if he does. Collins is a rumor-mill staple, and his outside-shooting dip remains a concern, but he's not someone you simply dump to open up the bigger mid-level exception or skirt the tax altogether.
Filling minutes on the wings, at the combo forward spots, continues to be the Hawks' biggest need. Saddiq Bey's arrival solves some of the conundrum, but not all of it.
Deepening that part of the rotation can be expensive. Poaching 25-year-old Jalen McDaniels from the Philadelphia 76ers shouldn't be. His own outside shooting is rickety, but he has improved his off-the-dribble moves and decision-making in space and can be shifted up and down the positional spectrum on defense.
Boston Celtics: Yuta Watanabe
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Likely Spending Range: Mini MLE
Acquiring Mike Muscala and his cheapo team option ($3.5 million) takes care of the Boston Celtics' search for a fourth big. They may re-enter the market if Grant Williams (restricted) prices himself out of town, but his exit can't be the presumption this far out from free agency.
Boston's reported interest in signing Danny Green (now with Cleveland) on the buyout market, as revealed by ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski, served up a nice reminder the rotation could use another not-so-small wing. He could again amble on to the team's radar over the summer.
Yuta Watanabe is more intriguing for both his age (28) and size (6'8"). He is just as plug-and-play on the offensive end, with more on-ball portability than many of the other aging wings to whom heavyweight contenders are traditionally linked. The Celtics can switch him across three positions on defense, and his 48.1 percent clip from three not only slides neatly into the rotation but includes a 56.9 percent knockdown rate from the corners.
Price could be an issue. Then again, maybe not. Watanabe doesn't play nearly enough to incite wild offers from cap-space suitors, and few top-end teams will be working with more than the mini mid-level. Guaranteed minutes are more likely to be a sticking point than dollars and cents.
Brooklyn Nets: Naz Reid
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Likely Spending Range: Non-taxpayer MLE
Consider this a (small) leap of faith. The Brooklyn Nets profile as taxpayers when factoring in Cam Johnson's $17.7 million restricted free agency hold—and he might cost more than that to retain.
That payroll won't stand. I think.
Brooklyn doesn't have an incentive to burn it all down when Houston controls its next four first-rounders, but it's also not competitive enough to float a roster that belly-flops into the luxury tax. The bet here is the Nets open up flexibility by selling off some combination of Spencer Dinwiddie, Joe Harris or Royce O'Neale ($2.5 million guaranteed) or figuring out a way to divest their remaining commitment to Ben Simmons (two years, $78.2 million).
Naz Reid should immediately catch Brooklyn's attention if it opens up the $11.4 million MLE. He doesn't turn 24 until August, and at 6'9", with the bandwidth to attack off the bounce, he can soak up time alongside any of the Nets' other frontcourt members. They can steal reps with him at center, and even though his three-point clip has ducked below 34 percent, he opens the floor enough to work in tandem with Simmons or Nicolas Claxton.
Whether MLE money successfully prizes him out of Minnesota remains to be seen. The Timberwolves seem content to pay him after not flipping him at the deadline. But he's an unrestricted free agent, and his role will forever be capped on a team with both Rudy Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns. Identical money may be enough to land him if it comes with assurances of a more prominent role.
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Charlotte Hornets: Dillon Brooks
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Likely Spending Range: $15 million-plus in cap space
The Charlotte Hornets' spending range is more speculative than most. They must renounce the rights to Kelly Oubre Jr., and this $15 million-plus doesn't account for any potential deal with Miles Bridges, who remains out of the league after pleading no contest to a felony domestic violence charge in November.
Charlotte could end up in non-taxpayer-MLE range if it brings everyone back. It could also carve out more than $35 million in wiggle room if it lets P.J. Washington walk in restricted free agency.
Sticking with a number between $15 million to $20 million is a nice middle ground. And regardless of how much spending power the Hornets dredge up, they need to target, well, pretty much everything other than a lead guard.
Scooping up real, actual wings who can contain the ball is a good idea. Dillon Brooks fits the bill. He remains an offensive wild card, sometimes nauseatingly so, but he's a bulldog stopper across the 1 through 3 spots who jibes with the tempo of a team quarterbacked by LaMelo Ball.
Offering around $15 million per year may not get him out of Memphis. But the Grizzlies have already paid Jaren Jackson Jr. and Ja Morant and need to start thinking about Desmond Bane's next deal. Charlotte is free to hunt around for more stabilizing offensive forces. This assumes they exist. Gary Trent Jr. (player option) is likely too expensive, and New York probably didn't give up a (protected) first for Josh Hart with the intention of letting him walk for money comparable to the $13 million player option he's slated to turn down.
Chicago Bulls: Josh Richardson
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Likely Spending Range: Non-taxpayer MLE
Somewhat meaningful cap space is within reach for the Chicago Bulls if they renounce everyone—including Nikola Vučević and Coby White (restricted)—and offload the player-option salaries of Andre Drummond and Derrick Jones Jr. But that's an awful lot of trouble just to eke out around $15 million or so in room.
And so, we have the non-taxpayer MLE.
Part of me wants to implore the Bulls to go after a big, like Naz Reid or even Brook Lopez. That ultimately isn't the optimal allocation of their best spending tool when they desperately need stopping power and outside shooting on the wings. (My brain could be swayed if you told me Lopez left Milwaukee for MLE money, or if Vooch bounces from Chicago.)
Josh Richardson is more of a cookie-cutter three-and-D contributor at this point. That's perfect for Chicago. You'd like to see his three-point accuracy tick up a bit (35.9 percent before getting traded to New Orleans), but he launches enough triples to stretch the floor and has the strength to tussle with opposing guards, many 3s and certain 4s.
Winning the Richardson sweepstakes will be a challenge. And yes, I said sweepstakes. So few serviceable, starting-level wings populate the market. The Bulls have a leg up on a large portion of the competition with the bigger MLE at their disposal, but they will be far from Richardson's only suitors in that range.
Speaking of which...
Cleveland Cavaliers: Josh Richardson
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Likely Spending Range: Non-taxpayer MLE
Ascendant play from Isaac Okoro (shooting over 41 percent from deep since the beginning of December) and Caris LeVert (hitting threes, playing hard on defense) diminished the urgency for the Cleveland Cavaliers to do anything at the trade deadline. (Stumbling into Danny Green on the buyout market helps, too.) That isn't a license for them to stand pat over the summer.
Polishing off the wing rotation remains key even if Okoro has officially worked himself back under the "core" umbrella. And relative to many other contenders, the Cavs have the financial flexibility to do it.
Digging up actual cap space is technically on the table; it's just wildly unlikely. Cleveland must renounce LeVert to do it, and scrapping together noticeably more room than the $11.4 million MLE is virtually impossible.
No matter. The Cavs have the headway to re-sign LeVert and still use the non-taxpayer MLE. That's...kind of terrifying when you think about how stacked they already are at the top of the roster.
Targeting someone equipped to take on backup-4 reps is fine. Bringing in Josh Richardson is still more interesting. He commands more attention on offense than Okoro or Dean Wade, and his defense scales from the point of attack up to bigger forwards. Other teams might offer slightly larger roles or a guaranteed starting spot. Cleveland shouldn't be above dangling either depending on how well Okoro fares in the postseason.
Dallas Mavericks: Matisse Thybulle (Restricted)
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Likely Spending Range: Mini MLE
Pinning down the Dallas Mavericks' spending range is something of a headache. They should be in mini MLE territory if they re-sign Kyrie Irving, but his future is nothing if not a perpetually gargantuan question mark.
Dallas' spending power increases dramatically if Kyrie leaves. That can't be the hope. You don't fork over Dorian Finney-Smith, Spencer Dinwiddie and an unprotected 2029 first-rounder if you actually view Irving as a rental.
The Mavs can try to open up the bigger MLE while re-signing Kyrie, but the opportunity cost will invariably be too steep. It begins with letting Christian Wood walk and unloading JaVale McGee (two years, $11.7 million) and might need to end with jettisoning Reggie Bullock ($5.4 million guaranteed next year), Tim Hardaway Jr. (two years, $34.1 million) or Maxi Kleber (three years, $33 million).
Settling into the mini-MLE band is, for now, the right call. From there, Dallas' mandate is straightforward: Try like hell to acquire defense.
Beefing up the rim protection needs to be a priority, but the Mavs can probably upgrade its interior turnstile on the relative cheap. (Bismack Biyombo?)
Re-signing Wood and then devoting the mini MLE to another big, again, also doesn't make a ton of sense.
Crossing their fingers for a third-team flier on Matisse Thybulle is more fitting. Mini-MLE spenders don't usually have the cash to lure restricted free agents, but Portland acquired him as its own exploratory dice roll, not as someone it plans to handsomely compensate.
Thybulle's offensive value will hover around zero if he's not hitting ultra-wide-open standstill threes or getting moved around off the ball. Maybe he'll start doing both with the Blazers. If he does, he'll be too expensive for the Mavs. If he doesn't, they're better built to sync up with defense-only players than most others.
Denver Nuggets: Javonte Green
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Likely Spending Range: Mini MLE
Any substantial roster tweaks for the Denver Nuggets won't come on the free-agent market. They may not be coming whatsoever. The crux of their roster is under contract and, failing a playoff flameout, doesn't beg for wholesale recalibration.
Bruce Brown's free agency will be an uncomfortable adventure. He will almost assuredly decline his $6.5 million player option, and the Nuggets can only offer him a starting salary around $7.8 million—a hair above the $7.1 million taxpayer MLE. In the event he stays at that price point, it could render Denver less likely to spend its entire MLE again.
Javonte Green should land within the Nuggets' price range even if they're not peddling top dollar. A right knee injury has kept him on the sidelines since Jan. 1, without a timeline for return, and there isn't an endless market for slightly undersized wings who don't uncork threes in droves.
Denver doesn't need Green to be higher volume on offense, making it an ideal destination if he's healthy. He is good insurance should Brown leave but also satisfies the Nuggets' need for stouter coverage on the back line.
Listed at 6'5", Green defends like he's 6'9" and can play next to both Brown and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope in smaller units. Chicago has regularly used him to cover 4s and 5s, and he's holding opponents to 58.5 percent shooting at the rim—one of the five stingiest marks among every player under 6'7" who has contested 50-plus looks around the basket.
Detroit Pistons: Gary Trent Jr. (Player Option)
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Likely Spending Range: $25 million-plus in cap space
I know, I know: I'm breaking general manager Troy Weaver's cardinal disdain for targeting and housing actual wings. I'm sorry.
Going after Gary Trent Jr. is not a given for the Detroit Pistons. At 6'5", he isn't the prototypically sized wing. More than that, the vision for this roster is hazy, at best, after they turned Saddiq Bey into reclamation big-man project James Wiseman despite already having Jalen Duren, Isaiah Stewart, the injured Marvin Bagley III and Nerlens Noel.
Objectively speaking, though, someone like GTJ is now a functional necessity. The Pistons need bankable outside volume and jolts of off-ball energy not named "Bojan." GTJ can suffer from tunnel vision and an overestimation of his offensive limitations, but his 7.7 three-point attempts per 36 minutes would help decongest a half-court attack that is, apparently, married to playing two bigs, forever and always.
Affording GTJ won't be an issue. The Pistons are in line for top-five cap space even after tacking on Wiseman's 2023-24 salary. Actually ponying up for him is a separate matter. Is he good enough to be the crowning acquisition of the summer? Debatable. But fresh off his 24th birthday, he aligns with Detroit's timeline—whatever it is these days.
Golden State Warriors: Dario Šarić
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Likely Spending Range: Mini MLE
Feel free to insist the Golden State Warriors prioritize the acquisition of a bigger wing. I won't disagree with you. There just isn't a realistic one in the mini-MLE price tier who's both worth the whole kit and kaboodle and sure to crack the regular rotation.
Pivoting to Donte DiVincenzo (player option) is fair game. The Warriors' non-Bird rights on his services mean next to nothing. They can offer him a max starting salary of $5.4 million without dipping into the mini MLE. Ergo, they'll need the mini MLE to retain him—and even that might not be enough.
Acquiring Gary Payton II, core muscle injury and all, suggests Golden State is already bracing for DiVincenzo's departure. And any move for a rotation-worthy wing is more likely coming via (blockbuster) trade.
That frees us up to go with Dario Šarić, who exists in the wonderfully gray area between "big man" and "not really a center." The Warriors can deploy him as the small-ball 5, but he has the floor game and outside shot to work alongside Draymond Green (player option) or Kevon Looney.
Don't let Šarić's iffy start to the season fool you. His play picked up in the 20 or so games prior to the trade deadline, during which time he banged in over 40 percent of his triples and showcased some of his trademark blend of downhill force and finesse. This is a tantalizing theoretical marriage—provided the Warriors aren't tasked with using their mini MLE to find Green's replacement. And even then, Golden State might appreciate Saric's tweener frontcourt status as an offensive approximation.
Houston Rockets: Fred VanVleet (Player Option)
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Likely Spending Range: $55 million-plus in cap space
Apologies to anyone pushing for a James Harden reunion with the Houston Rockets. I can't bring myself to support a rebuilding squad funding a max deal for someone who will be 34 next season. (This take stands to self-destruct if Harden brings another superstar with him.)
Fred VanVleet (player option) is the more even-handed target.
Going on 29, he isn't following the same trajectory as Jabari Smith Jr., Alperen Şengün and Jalen Green, but he doesn't upend the development of Houston's core. He is equal parts floor organizer, off-ball shooting threat and gritty defender. The Rockets need all three.
Houston can look to drive up the price tag on younger free agents and shouldn't be trying to overaccelerate its timeline. But there is some urgency to make serious strides next season. The Rockets owe their 2024 and 2026 first-rounders to Oklahoma City (top-four protection), along with swap rights in 2025 (top-10 protection).
VanVleet won't transform the roster. He would, however, make it more coherent. And if his arrival means moving on from Kevin Porter Jr., then so be it. VanVleet is the superior fit next to Green, a primary scorer who will be overstretched if saddled with anything more than secondary table-setting duties.
Indiana Pacers: P.J. Washington (Restricted)
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Likely Spending Range: $25 million-plus in cap space
Extending Myles Turner still leaves the Indiana Pacers with a path to more than $25 million they can throw around the free-agent market. In the absence of available building-block wings, they should look to glitz up the second frontcourt slot.
Team president Kevin Pritchard should have restricted free agents Cam Johnson, Grant Williams and P.J. Washington atop his wishlist. They are all young-ish 4s who seamlessly complement Turner. Indiana can't go wrong with any of them.
Washington wins out by virtue of a broader offensive skill set. He has been overtaxed, at times, in Charlotte but gets called upon to create more than either Johnson or Williams. His three-point shooting (34.5 percent) is a notch or two below where you'd like, but chances are his efficiency will climb inside an offense spearheaded by Tyrese Haliburton and is no stranger to rolling five-out.
Prioritizing Washington is also good here-we-go-again insurance. Turner's name could meander back into trade talks next season. Washington more easily slides up to the 5 than Williams (and Johnson), and his defense in tandem with Turner is just as appealing given the Hornets' propensity for rolling him out against the Jimmy Butlers, LeBron Jameses and Giannis Antetokounmpos of the world.
L.A. Clippers: Bismack Biyombo
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Likely Spending Range: Mini MLE
Running through this exercise flat-out sucks for a few teams. So much of their offseason direction rests on how the playoffs pan out.
The L.A. Clippers are one of those squads. What happens if they disappoint in the playoffs? Do they need a game manager? More youth and athleticism on the wings? A defensive upgrade over Mason Plumlee behind Ivica Zubac? Will they consider more wholesale changes if the season ends earlier than would be acceptable?
Short of the Clippers dismantling their core, the answer may not matter. They're not reinventing the wheel on the perimeter with only the mini MLE to spare. They are better off prioritizing the development of Bones Hyland over chasing a Jevon Carter or Cory Joseph or Goran Dragić, and the list of potentially impactful wings who can be had for $7 million or less per year includes a bunch of dudes in their mid-30s and ambiguous stabs in the dark.
Landing a useful big on a budget is, as ever, more plausible. Bismack Biyombo piques my attention if I'm the Clippers. Their rim protection has slipped since the turn of the calendar, and he provides plenty of it, with more shiftiness away from the basket than Plumlee.
To wit: Among the 323 players who have contested at least 50 looks around the hoop, the 43.9 percent clip Biyombo surrenders ranks...first.
Los Angeles Lakers: Torrey Craig
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Likely Spending Range: Mini MLE
Others will disagree with the Los Angeles Lakers' spending range. They can conjure north of $30 million in cap space if they please.
It will only cost them, er, basically everyone other than Anthony Davis and LeBron James and Max Christie and Austin Reaves (restricted).
Never mind the relative shallowness of this free-agency class. Depth matters. Getting Kyrie Irving, on a pay cut, isn't worth obliterating the top-middle, middle and bottom of your rotation.
The Lakers are more likely to operate over the cap while holding on to D'Angelo Russell (unrestricted), Jarred Vanderbilt (non-guaranteed), Malik Beasley (team option) and, potentially, Rui Hachimura (restricted). That pulls them all the way back into mini-MLE territory. They could look to finagle their way to the $11.4 million MLE, but that will surely cost DLo, and frankly, the hard cap doesn't suit a team paying a combined $87-plus million to AD and LeBron alone.
Defensively capable wings who can hit open treys are on almost every team's shopping list. They are especially critical for the Lakers, who still don't have an inarguable two-way wing on the roster.
Torrey Craig hasn't always met the two-way requirements. But he's downing almost 40 percent of his threes this season while injecting his usual dose of under-the-radar offensive rebounding. And though he's more suited to playing the Jae Crowder, bigger-and-slower-assignments-only role these days, he promises more defensive maneuverability than most of the Lakers' incumbent non-bigs.
Memphis Grizzlies: Harrison Barnes
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Likely Spending Range: Mini MLE
First thing's first: Harrison Barnes is not signing for the mini MLE. But the Memphis Grizzlies have the flexibility to think bigger and work within the hard cap as part of sign-and-trades.
Kyle Kuzma (player option) or Jerami Grant were my first preferences. But Washington and Portland, respectively, don't profile as good partners. Their books aren't all that conducive to dual sign-and-trades, and Memphis' best path to netting a bigger fish without mortgaging the future assets it has protected to date is finding a team both able and willing to bankroll Dillon Brooks' next deal.
Sacramento could be that team. It desperately needs more tough-nosed defense and has the surrounding offensive depth and spacing to work around Brooks' own limitations and flaws.
Barnes isn't what you'd call dispensable to the Kings, but the sweet shooting and movement of Keegan Murray prevent him from being considered untouchable. A deal built around Brooks and Brandon Clarke, depending on how much the former costs, fills rotational gaps for both sides.
Granted, going after a soon-to-be 31-year-old Barnes qualifies as yet another half-measure by the Grizzlies. Everyone is waiting on them to take the bigger, blockbuster-y swing. But Barnes doesn't preclude them from making aggressive trade overtures down the line, and he immediately boosts their combo-forward minutes on offense without torpedoing their defensive identity.
Miami Heat: Joe Ingles
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Likely Spending Range: Mini MLE
Ticketing the Miami Heat for mini-MLE spending may actually overstate their position. Yeah, it will be available to them. But if Victor Oladipo exercises his player option, they'll be over $16 million into the tax without accounting for what it costs to retain Gabe Vincent or, more critically, Max Strus.
Spending beyond that threshold isn't a given without ancillary, cost-cutting moves. So, it's wise to lower expectations, with a steady dose of mini-MLE-but-potentially-cheaper options.
This removes (obvious) candidates like Jae Crowder, Josh Richardson, Torrey Craig, et al. That's fine. The Heat need half-court-offense safety valves just as much as they need to fortify the 4 spot.
Joe Ingles can do both. He provides secondary ball-handling and outside shooting—albeit not at his previously mind-melting clips—and he's still roving across three to four positions on defense.
Crossing their fingers for someone like Craig or Crowder to tumble into Mini MLE Land is always an option. But Ingles will be entering his age-36 season. He may not command even a huge chunk of the mini MLE. And even if he does, he may be more apt to accept a short-term agreement without any player control at the end. Coupled with the extra pizzazz he imbues into the half-court offense, he represents the better combination of gettable and needed.
Milwaukee Bucks: Jaylen Nowell
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Likely Spending Range: Mini MLE
Dangling more than the mini MLE is out of the question unless the Milwaukee Bucks wave goodbye to Khris Middleton and at least one of Brook Lopez and Jae Crowder. That's neither a smart nor tenable course of action when you have Giannis Antetokounmpo on your roster and the still-wide-open title window that comes with him.
Milwaukee will be poking around the bargain bin as a result. It may even avoid spending the mini MLE if it re-signs all three of Crowder, Lopez and Middleton.
Jaylen Nowell is not someone who can be squeezed into the latter scenario. Putting him on the mini-MLE board might even be a reach. He is just 23 and packs what should be a scalable offensive punch.
He's also working his way through a down shooting season—which could play to the Bucks' advantage. They need another on-ball firecracker who plays nice with others. Nowell is looking more like that player since the middle of January. Over his last 16 games, he's converting 35.8 percent of his threes—including 39.1 percent of his pull-up triples—and shooting 56.8 percent on drives.
Minnesota shouldn't let Nowell leave for sub-mini-MLE money. This assumes it has a choice. Nowell told the Timberwolves just before the deadline that he plans to leave in free agency, per The Athletic's Shams Charania, and his role doesn't stand to get much bigger while living in the floor-general shadows of Mike Conley, Anthony Edwards and Kyle Anderson.
Minnesota Timberwolves: Josh Richardson
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Likely Spending Range: Non-taxpayer MLE
Microwave scoring off the bench will climb up the Minnesota Timberwolves' list of priorities if they lose Jaylen Nowell, who is purportedly already out the door, as Shams Charania of The Athletic reported. But they now have Nickeil Alexander-Walker (restricted) to fall back upon, and adding the three-and-D element looms as the more pivotal need if the Karl-Anthony Towns-Rudy Gobert frontcourt is here to stay.
Minnesota is not without in-house players who meet the criteria. Jaden McDaniels and Taurean Prince (non-guaranteed) are under team control next season, and Anthony Edwards brings threes, defense and so much more these days.
The Timberwolves need more. (Related: Which teams don't?) Josh Richardson borders on perfect, even if his three-point clip is lower than you'd prefer (35.9 percent). He gets up enough treys to keep defenses spread, and the Wolves can insulate the hell out of KAT in lineups featuring J-Rich, Gobert, Edwards and McDaniels.
Coming up with the money to party crash Richardson's market might be a toughie. The Wolves likely need the non-taxpayer MLE to have a prayer. And though they will have plenty of room beneath the hard cap if they fully guarantee Prince and Mike Conley and re-sign two of Naz Reid, Jaylen Nowell and Nickeil Alexander-Walker, this would still entail a commitment to entering that tax.
Which, duh. The Wolves, by choice, are paying a combined $75 million-plus to KAT and Gobert. You don't bankroll this duo without planning to eventually enter the tax. The roster may not be enticing enough as currently constructed to back up the Brink's truck, but Minnesota is obligated to spend on roster optimization unless—or until—it pulls the ripcord on its dual-center vision.
New Orleans Pelicans: Danny Green
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Likely Spending Power: Mini MLE
Using the bigger MLE is in play for the New Orleans Pelicans if they're willing to dip their toes into the tax. Paint me skeptical. Maybe their stance changes on the heels of a deep playoff push, but offloading Devonte' Graham's deal at the deadline, while cost-effective, wasn't the move of a team unconcerned with its ballooning payroll.
If they do enter the tax, they may get there before ever factoring in outside free agents. Retaining even one of Jaxson Hayes (restricted) or Josh Richardson will put them in tax territory without making any other moves.
Hence the appeal of Danny Green. He may be turning 36 in June, and he's just three games into his return from an ACL injury. But that should ensure he's relatively cheap, and the Pelicans need anyone capable of nudging up their three-point volume, even if it's packaged in a 12-to-17-minutes-per-game role.
New Orleans could stand to diversify its big-man rotation. Stashing a floor-spacing rim protector next to Zion Williamson is the dream. But that player isn't out there for the mini MLE, let alone less. There's also value in adding a high-character vet with championship experience to the locker room of a team just beginning to shoulder the burden of expectations.
New York Knicks: Donte DiVincenzo (Player Option)
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Likely Spending Range: Non-taxpayer MLE
Re-signing Josh Hart (player option) shouldn't prevent the New York Knicks from dangling the bigger MLE. They will remain far enough beneath the hard cap after declining Derrick Rose's team option to spend it—unless Hart's next deal is off-the-walls expensive.
Figuring out what the Knicks should do with that money is a mental tug-of-war. They exist in this weird state of enviable depth yet obvious incompleteness.
Star power is actually their biggest need. They aren't getting that for the MLE—or in free agency, period. That needs to be acquired via trade. Defaulting to a generic position doesn't help matters. The Knicks run two to three deep at every slot.
When in doubt, going with the multifaceted perimeter player is never a bad idea.
Donte DiVincenzo doesn't have traditional wing size, but he can take on stints at both the 2 and 3, as well as some spot minutes at the 1. His off-ball movement in the half-court is divine, he doesn't let the rock stick, and New York could use his career-best 41.6 percent clip from deep on 7.1 attempts per 36 minutes.
Adding DiVincenzo to a rotation that includes Hart, R.J. Barrett, Quentin Grimes and Immanuel Quickley could get dicey. It doesn't have to. The Knicks can downsize with RJ or Hart at the 4, and you can never have too many high-energy and high-IQ perimeter workaholics.
Oklahoma City Thunder: Grant Williams (Restricted)
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Likely Spending Range: $30 million-plus in cap space.
The Oklahoma City Thunder will have 13 roster spots sewn up for next season if they guarantee the contracts of Isaiah Joe, Jeremiah Robinson-Earl and Aaron Wiggins. One of those will go to this year's first-round pick. The other should go to someone who warrants dusting off the ol' purse strings.
Enter Grant Williams.
P.J. Washington (restricted) is more than fine here. But he will probably cost a steeper premium, because of #countingstats. Oklahoma City is better off with Williams anyway. He is more plug-and-play at the offensive end, with a much stronger resume from downtown.
Over 45 percent of his field-goal attempts are coming as spot-up triples, which he's swishing at a 39.9 percent clip. He has also offered glimpses into a shiftier floor game when given space and agency to operate, as well as some more complicated perimeter shot-making. He has hit 50 percent of his pull-up treys (20-of-40) and 40.9 percent of his step-back threes (9-of-22).
Plopping him into the frontcourt, alongside a healthy Chet Holmgren, is all too dreamy. They can both stretch defenses, toggle between big-man assignments and cover explosive ball-handlers working from the outside-in.
Williams is reportedly looking for $20 million per year in his next deal, according to NBA insider Marc Stein. That is money the Thunder shouldn't be willing to spend on him. If that number drops by $3 million to $5 million and Boston is scared silly by the luxury-tax implications, Oklahoma City should be all over a 24-year-old who fits both their timeline and makeup.
Orlando Magic: Fred VanVleet (Player Option)
22 of 30
Likely Spending Range: $20 million-plus in cap space (with the potential for much more)
Fred VanVleet caught the eye of the Orlando Magic leading into the trade deadline, according to Action Network's Matt Moore. Their attraction shouldn't fade ahead of free agency.
The Magic don't need to accelerate their timeline by adding a nearly-29-year-old point guard. And yet, this pairing doesn't feel forced. They have a genuine need for a game manager who doesn't dominate the ball. VanVleet fits that motif while playing gnatty defense.
Orlando is also, arguably, an ideal landing spot if he leaves Toronto. VanVleet is best served as a lead guard dotted by safety nets. The Magic have a host of other outside-in on-ball workers with Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner and Markelle Fultz, and his off-ball motion will come in handy on Wendell Carter Jr. elbow touches.
Signing VanVleet outright will take some finagling. Orlando can get to around $20 million-ish in cap space after guaranteeing the contracts of Fultz ($2 million guaranteed), Gary Harris and Jonathan Isaac ($7.6 million guaranteed). It will take more to wrest VanVleet out of Toronto.
Waiving Harris is the cleaner route, but three-and-D wings who attack closeouts are too valuable to just ditch. Isaac is the most expendable of the three, but his partial guarantee is too large to stretch and waive without second-guessing it.
Negotiating a sign-and-trade with Toronto may be the most effective path. This way, the Raptors get something for FVV's departure, and the Magic can send out (smaller) salaries that offset the difference between his new pay grade and its most likely spending range. If push comes to shove, though, they shouldn't be above parting ways with Harris or Isaac to clear out the cap space necessary to poach FVV independent of Toronto's help.
Philadelphia 76ers: Torrey Craig
23 of 30
Likely Spending Power: Mini MLE
Planning this far in advance of the Philadelphia 76ers' offseason is all kinds of risky. The James Harden-to-Houston reporting around Christmas looms, and their entire trajectory changes if he decides to leave.
I'm not brave enough to predict his departure. Also: The Sixers are really good. They could feasibly win this year's title. Defaulting to "Harden is a goner!" would be irresponsible. We have to instead assume he'll re-sign with the Sixers, perhaps on a short-term contract, after declining his player option.
Giving Harden a raise off the sub-max pay cut should slingshot Philly into the tax—unless, of course, it takes another discount. The Sixers could look at augmenting the backup center spot, but using your best spending tool on your best player's best position isn't the best idea. Racking more fliers on wings is the way to go, even after picking up Jalen McDaniels at the trade deadline.
Torrey Craig is particularly interesting in the aftermath of the failed Danuel House signing and given P.J. Tucker's aging curve. He is drilling almost 40 percent of his threes and isn't afraid to take them, and he appreciably improves Philly's unspectacular presence on the offensive glass—all while providing assignment flexibility at the defensive end.
Phoenix Suns: Bruce Brown (Player Option)
24 of 30
Likely Spending Power: Mini MLE
Adding point-of-attack defense that doesn't nuke the offense would constitute the ideal offseason for the Phoenix Suns. Bruce Brown meets that criterion to a T.
He is now in Year 2 of his reign as a capable three-point shooter and continues to find seams in the defense when roving without the ball. Though he's most effective in the accessory role, he can still be relied upon to dish passes on the move and even, at times, after some slowed-down orchestration.
Through all his offensive growth, Brown's defense remains the primary draw. He can rumble at the point of attack but also guards bigger, burlier wings. Units featuring him, Deandre Ayton and Kevin Durant would be Phoenix's line to a top-tier team defense.
Stealing Brown from a Western Conference rival in Denver will take some luck. The Nuggets can offer him a higher starting salary ($7.8 million) than the Suns ($7 million), and the prevailing belief is sub-$8 million won't be enough to bag him. But the market isn't flooded with win-now teams hocking the non-taxpayer mid-level exception, and Brown doesn't have a ton of obvious fits among cap-space squads.
Phoenix can stand out both from Denver and the field by offering a longer-term contract and the security that comes with it and a starting role. That still might not be enough if another suitor comes over the top with a higher annual salary, but it's at least a competitive enough overture to include him here.
Portland Trail Blazers: Naz Reid
25 of 30
Likely Spending Power: Non-taxpayer MLE
Choosing a target for the Portland Trail Blazers is more of a chore than it should be.
Their price range is pretty cut and dry. Re-signing Jerami Grant leaves them with plenty of room beneath the hard cap to go bigger-MLE shopping. That headway evaporates if they have to pay meaningful money to Cam Reddish (restricted) and/or Matisse Thybulle (restricted), but neither is entrenched enough to be considered must-keep.
At the same time, if the Blazers are going to move on from them, they'll need additional wings. That could necessitate them entering the Josh Richardson, Torrey Craig, Jae Crowder, Danny Green, etc. business.
But Portland also needs to hash out its secondary big-man rotation. It has minutes to spare behind both Grant and Jusuf Nurkic, a multi-spot void large enough to warrant using its best spending tool to fill.
Naz Reid would be close to an ideal solution. At 6'9", he doesn't make the Blazers much bigger and isn't an airtight rim protector, but he has a presence on the glass, can send back shots as the helper and, despite a slumping three-point clip, will stretch defenses beyond the arc. His offensive floor game will also make for absurdly dynamic lineups headlined by him and Grant in the frontcourt, and what he lacks in deterrence at the basket, he makes up for with the chops to hang in front of smalls on the perimeter.
Sacramento Kings: Josh Hart (Player Option)
26 of 30
Likely Spending Power: Non-taxpayer MLE
Josh Hart (player option) is a more ambitious target than he seems at first glance. New York just gave up a lottery-protected first-rounder for his services. That's not "Partial-season rental" value. It's "We plan to pay his next contract" equity.
That becomes an issue for Sacramento if they're working with the non-taxpayer mid-level exception. Hart's player option is for almost $13 million. He's probably not declining it to accept a deal that pays him less per year, even if it guarantees him significantly more money over the bigger picture.
Sacramento needs his defensive versatility and magic badly enough that it could explore the cap-space route. Renouncing Harrison Barnes is the quickest way to get there. Showing him—and all its other free agents—the door opens up over $20 million in room.
This isn't the way to go, no matter how much the Kings believe in Keegan Murray. Barnes has rebounded nicely after an arctic-cold start to the season, and Sacramento doesn't have enough options at the 3-4 to make lateral transactions...unless Kessler Edwards is a top-end rotation player in waiting.
But the Kings have alternative means of grinding out better-than-MLE money. Compensating a cap-space team to take on the final two years and $25 million-ish of Richaun Holmes' deal would give them $30 million-plus to split between Barnes and Hart.
Maybe that's not enough. Hart could see his next salary rise above $15 million if he keeps marrying his rebounding and defensive energy with better three-point shooting. The Kings can (and should) explore New York's appetite for sign-and-trade scenarios at that point. It might be a no-go, but they have the runway beneath the hard cap to pursue such measures without unnecessarily hamstringing themselves.
San Antonio Spurs: Ayo Dosunmu (Restricted)
27 of 30
Likely Spending Power: $35 million-plus in cap space
Free agency is unlikely to be the vehicle through which the San Antonio Spurs make major upgrades. They remain in the infancy of their rebuild, and the market isn't drowning in kiddies talented enough to solicit overbids.
San Antonio could—and perhaps should—prowl around the restricted-free-agent-big-man pool. Grant Williams and P.J. Washington are sound fits. But the Spurs already paid Keldon Johnson, and neither Williams nor Washington is a certified every-possession center. Kicking the tires on Naz Reid would make more sense.
Still, the Spurs have the flexibility to take a bigger risk.
How about a poison pill contract for Ayo Dosunmu?
As an Early Bird restricted free agent, he cannot be offered a contract from San Antonio that pays him more than the non-taxpayer's mid-level in Year 1. The second year of any deal is then limited to the standard 5 percent raise. After that, though, the Spurs can mushroom the crap out of his salary Year 3, making it prohibitive for Chicago to match.
Whether Dosunmu warrants such an aggressive overture is eye-of-the-beholder stuff. He does enough of everything—jump-start the offense, get moving downhill, work his butt off on defense—to at least consider it. The Spurs would be betting on him making jumps as a shooter, foul-drawer and playmaker. That's hardly egregious when he just turned 23—and when his defensive utility contains multitudes.
Toronto Raptors: Jevon Carter (Player Option)
28 of 30
Likely Spending Power: Mini MLE
Mountains of cap space awaits the Toronto Raptors if they renounce Jakob Poeltl, Gary Trent Jr. (player option) and Fred VanVleet (player option). News flash: They aren't doing that.
Toronto punted on moving GTJ and VanVleet at the deadline and coughed up a top-six-protected first-rounder for Poeltl. All signs point toward the franchise reinvesting in this core, a decision that's as expensive as it is questionable.
Bankrolling new deals for GTJ, FVV and Poeltl will vault the Raptors well into the tax, leaving them with the $7.1 million mini MLE to disperse (or consolidate) into shooters and actual point guard depth.
Let's nominate Jevon Carter to sponge up a portion of that money. He is shorter than 6'7", and his name doesn't rhyme with "tan feet." That may not bode well for Toronto's interest. But he brings 94 feet of hellfire on defense, doesn't have to dominate the ball on offense and is canning almost 41 percent of his triples on six attempts per 36 minutes. The Raptors rotation needs extra bodies, and Carter just so happens to plug actual holes.
Whisking him out of Milwaukee won't be a cinch. The Bucks aren't in a position to discard capable reserve guards. But they also have to worry about new contracts for Khris Middleton (player option) and Brook Lopez and will presumably look to keep Jae Crowder. Staring down the barrel of another gargantuan tax bill, they may not have the stomach to shell out appreciably more than the vet's minimum for Carter.
Utah Jazz: Grant Williams (Restricted)
29 of 30
Likely Spending Range: $25 million-plus in cap space (with the potential for much more)
Forecasting the Utah Jazz for under $30 million in free-agency fun coupons verges on ultra-conservative. They can blow past the $50 million marker if they waive Kelly Olynyk ($3 million guaranteed) and renounce Jordan Clarkson (player option).
This number presumes they keep both. CEO Danny Ainge is the type of exec who would've moved both if he didn't want them, and Utah doesn't need $50 million to $60 million in cap space at this stage of the rebuild. If the Jazz really want to inflate their rainy-day fund, they can grease the wheels of Rudy Gay (player option) and Talen Horton-Tucker (player option) salary dumps.
Whatever money they end up with should be devoted to sussing out a mainstay at point guard or a frontcourt partner for Lauri Markkanen and Walker Kessler. The latter is easier to address, mostly because Markkanen gives Utah the option of bringing in a 3 or a 4.
Combo bigs are available in ampler supply, and the Jazz had the medium-hots for John Collins at the trade deadline. Using the market and their reported trade inklings as a guide, Cam Johnson (restricted) is super intriguing. But he's a little too one-position and doesn't move the defensive needle enough.
Grant Williams provides more optionality, as a stretchy 4 next to Kessler or a small-ball 5 Utah pairs with Markkanen in supercharged five-out lineups. (He also happened to be drafted by Boston during Ainge's reign over the front office.) His shaky rim protection and rebounding would prohibit some teams from treating him as a combo big. The Jazz aren't one of them. The rebounding is an issue, but they have smalls who crash the glass, and Williams' switchability offsets the size he gives up at the basket.
Washington Wizards: Tre Jones (Restricted)
30 of 30
Spending Range: Mini MLE
The Washington Wizards miiight be able to unlock the non-taxpayer's mid-level exception if Kristaps Porzingis (player option) signs a new deal that lowers his annual cap hold but increases his guaranteed money over the long term. That's a big if. The Wizards would need to drop his salary by a large enough number that they can re-sign Kyle Kuzma (player option) for around $16 million to $20 million per year (or more) without breaking a sweat.
On the flip side, the Wizards could work with cap space if both Kuzma and Porzingis leave. That is, let's say, not happening. Keeping both past the trade deadline only to lose them for nothing so they can have scratch to burn on a shallow free-agency pool would be all sorts of bonkers. The logic fails to track even if the plan is to fire up a (long-overdue, inevitably inevitable) rebuild.
Operate under the assumption that Washington continues to #GoForIt, and the mini MLE is its most likely price range. That money needs to be funneled toward bolstering the point guard or wing rotation. The latter feels more whimsical. The market for utility wings is always robust, and the Wizards aren't topping offers for anyone outside the bargain bin.
Investing in a different look at the 1 spot is more doable. Monte Morris and Delon Wright are fine, and Jordan Goodwin has delivered some nice moments. None of them is a permanent answer.
Tre Jones could be. He is only 23, gets to the basket more than Morris, plays under control, and has a knack for creating and completing nifty pocket passes. His outside touch is spotty, but he boasts an operable mid-range game and knows how to decision-make going downhill. He is shooting 52.5 percent on driving floaters since Jan. 1, during which time he's committing turnovers on just 3.7 percent of all drives—a top-four mark among 53 players averaging at least 10 per game, trailing only Kawhi Leonard, Tyler Herro and Chris Paul.
San Antonio has the ability to pay Jones more than the $7.1 million Washington can sling. Will it want to? Probably. But between Malaki Branham, Devin Vassell, Devonte' Graham, Keldon Johnson, this year's draft pick and Jeremy Sochan's on-ball development, the Spurs may not view their current starting point guard as indispensable.
Unless otherwise noted, stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference, Stathead or Cleaning the Glass and accurate entering Wednesday's games. Salary information via Spotrac.
Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@danfavale), and subscribe to the Hardwood Knocks podcast, co-hosted by Bleacher Report's Grant Hughes.
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