Buying or Selling Title Odds of Every AP Top 10 CBB Team
Correctly picking a huge upset during the men's NCAA tournament is worth celebrating, but the ultimate bragging rights happen when you accurately project the national champion.
Really want to gloat, though? Identify that program with a month remaining in the regular season.
Now that both college football and the NFL have wrapped up, you might be turning to the 2022-23 college basketball season. First of all, welcome. We're glad you're here. And second, let's talk favorites.
The following order is based on the latest Top 10 of the AP Top 25, and we're deciding whether to buy or sell the current DraftKings championship odds for those 10 teams.
Tennessee Volunteers
1 of 10
Odds: +2000
The intent of each evaluation is weighing the program's value relative to the rest of the odds.
In comparison, Tennessee isn't attractive.
The Volunteers hold the seventh-best odds in the country. Considering the offense's near-absence of dangerous options, that's a tremendously risky bet. Tennessee ranks 223rd nationally in true shooting percentage and 251st with a 32.9 three-point clip.
The defense is phenomenal, but that enormous weakness on offense has become terribly apparent in a recent 1-3 slide, as well as a January loss at home against Kentucky.
Verdict: Selling
Baylor Bears
2 of 10
Odds: +2200
Baylor, meanwhile, has a couple of long-range weapons in Adam Flagler and LJ Cryer, who both attempt 5.8-plus threes per game and knock down at least 40 percent of them.
The challenge for the Bears is they've lacked resistance down low. Opponents have tallied a 52.2 field-goal percentage on twos, largely because the defense had no serious shot-blocking presence until the recent return of Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua.
And he's the reason to buy Baylor.
"Everyday Jon" in the lineup doesn't guarantee title contention, but he's a veteran spark plug who bolsters the Bears' rebounding and overall defense. Baylor has a quality offense, so it has upside with a month remaining until March Madness.
Verdict: Buying
Arizona Wildcats
3 of 10
Odds: +1400
Arizona has a (literal) massive advantage with Azuolas Tubelis and Oumar Ballo in the frontcourt. They've combined to produce 34.9 points and 18.1 rebounds per game, and they serve as major deterrents in the paint. Opponents take just 28.4 percent of their shots at the rim, the nation's ninth-lowest clip, per Hoop-Math.
That's not meant to suggest the Wildcats are a commanding defensive team. They lost at Stanford on Saturday too.
But that setback followed Arizona's best stretch of the season. Most encouragingly, the Wildcats have started to consistently hit perimeter shots. While it'd be a problem if that trend disappears, Kerr Kriisa and Courtney Ramey are capable of high-volume, high-efficiency nights with support from Cedric Henderson and Kylan Boswell.
Arizona is heating up, and a road loss won't dissuade us from buying the Cats in mid-February.
Verdict: Buying
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Virginia Cavaliers
4 of 10
Odds: +2500
Compared with previous years at the program, Virginia seemingly isn't a high-level contender.
The Cavaliers are an uncharacteristic 222nd in three-point defense this season. Pesky defending has been a trademark for the program's reliability in the last decade. Yet that statistical eyesore hasn't caused nightmares for UVA, which is 11-2 when opponents even convert just one-third of their perimeter looks.
On offense, UVA is second in assist rate, ninth in turnover rate and 27th from beyond the arc. Kihei Clark and Reece Beekman both provide at least 10 points and five assists, while Armaan Franklin and Isaac McKneely each hit 40-plus percent from deep while launching at least 3.9 per game.
Virginia's blend of multiple ball-handlers, long-range prowess and an effective defense is worth a look at these odds.
Verdict: Buying
Texas Longhorns
5 of 10
Odds: +2200
Texas presents a fascinating case.
Marcus Carr, Tyrese Hunter, Timmy Allen and Sir'Jabari Rice headline a strong list of perimeter options. The Longhorns aren't the most efficient offense, but they're an unselfish group and can watch any of those players create off the dribble too.
The problem is Texas lacks a threatening defense. Kansas State exploded for 116 points in January, and the not-so-awesome Iowa State and Tennessee offenses both handled the Longhorns in the past month.
If the quartet in the backcourt has a scorching run in March, pure shot-making can minimize Texas' issues. But this defense is a real concern.
Verdict: Selling
Kansas Jayhawks
6 of 10
Odds: +1400
Did the Jayhawks get all of that losing out of their system?
After soaring to a 16-1 start, they dropped three straight January games to Kansas State, TCU and Baylor. Kansas fell at Iowa State in ugly fashion to open February too.
The common thread, save for a home meltdown opposite TCU, was Kansas lost on the road. That's a concerning trend for an offense that has a shortage of reliable shooters after Jalen Wilson and Gradey Dick. KU coach Bill Self has admitted as much, saying after a win at Oklahoma that Kansas isn't good enough offensively to compete with a high-performing team.
The Jayhawks can reduce the concern if they handle Oklahoma State, TCU and Texas—all projected NCAA tournament teams, per Bracket Matrix—in the late moments of the regular season.
Until or unless it happens, however, the uneasiness around KU's dependability will linger into March.
Verdict: Selling
UCLA Bruins
7 of 10
Odds: +1400
Perhaps the best way to describe this offense is analytically agonizing. During an era that preaches against mid-range jumpers, the Bruins continue to rely heavily on the shots.
In a vacuum, this shouldn't be working. UCLA is 201st in two-point percentage, including an unspectacular 89th ranking on two-point jumpers, per Hoop-Math. UCLA has solid efficiency from three-point range but attempts triples at the 18th-lowest clip in the country.
That's just part of the story, though.
Not only do the Bruins rank 10th in defensive turnover rate, but their effective field-goal percentage in transition is also 15th. The ability to create and capitalize on turnovers—despite a preference to play a slower tempo—allows UCLA to overcome its vexing style.
Verdict: Buying
Purdue Boilermakers
8 of 10
Odds: +900
If you're not already on board with Purdue, I regret to share the Boilermakers' train has left the station.
In the preseason, Purdue wasn't close to the championship radar. In fact, the Boilers sat in the middle tier of Big Ten projections. They were expected to just maybe contend for a conference title.
Fast-forward three months, and the Zach Edey-led squad has legitimate dreams of winning March Madness. Purdue leads the country in total rebounding rate and does a masterful job of avoiding fouls, also topping the nation in opponent free throws per field-goal attempt.
Considering where the Boilers opened the season, however, the value of their odds is minimal.
Verdict: Selling
Houston Cougars
9 of 10
Odds: +700
Houston has remained steady near its number throughout the season, and time probably isn't your friend here.
Entering the final stretch, the Cougars are 23-2 with a favorable remaining slate. They have a home-and-home against Memphis, but Tulane is otherwise the only top-100 NET opponent on the schedule.
If you're hoping for a more ideal betting window, it's unlikely to appear. That would require a massive upset—maybe two—and Houston doesn't have a habit of playing close games.
Given the team's snail-slow tempo, a cold shooting night can be calamitous. Houston, though, has boasted an elite defense all season, ceding a nation-best 35.2 opponent field-goal percentage. The roster is built to win, and Houston's odds presumably won't get better.
Verdict: Buying
Alabama Crimson Tide
10 of 10
Odds: +900
Similar to Purdue, Alabama keeps on rising. The team picked fifth in the media preseason poll is undefeated in SEC play, riding a massively improved defense to a 22-3 overall record.
But, like the Boilers, the timing is imperfect.
If you're set on Bama thanks to its strength on the defensive end, fire away. The Crimson Tide rank first nationally in two-point percentage allowed and second in the three-point category. Brandon Miller is tracking for Freshman Player of the Year, and the rotation is deep.
However, it's only sensible to acknowledge the Tide's soaring title aspirations are, by extension, creating season-low marks for value.
Verdict: Selling
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