Super Bowl Odds 2023: Final Prop Bets List, Over/Under Advice and More
The Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles finished the NFL regular season with the two highest point and yardage totals.
The AFC and NFC champions went on to score 119 points in their two playoff victories, but yet the under may be the better bet for Super Bowl 57.
Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts are capable of making a ton of impressive plays from the pocket and on the move, but their respective offenses could be frustrated closer to the end zone and that may lead to the points total falling under the projected 51 points.
History is also on the side of the under, as each of the last four NFL championship games had 51 points or fewer.
Kansas City has had mixed results in the Super Bowl. The Chiefs beat the San Francisco 49ers 31-20 in Super Bowl 54, but they were also held to nine points by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Super Bowl 55.
Philadelphia's defense conceded the third-fewest total yards in the regular season, and it could cause problems for Mahomes and lead to another low-scoring Super Bowl for the Chiefs.
As for the Eagles, they face a tough front seven, led by Chris Jones, but they may be able to find gaps in the defensive backfield. Kansas City gave up six passing performances of 250 yards or more this season, while Philadelphia allowed just one.
The defensive qualities of both franchises should play a role in how you approach player props as well, and if the game goes under, some props may go that way too.
Over/Under Advice
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DraftKings Sportsbook listed the Super Bowl over/under at 51 points.
The total reflects how effective both offenses can be, but that number is not as easy to reach as you think.
None of the four postseason games that involved Kansas City or Philadelphia reached the 50-point mark. Kansas City's divisional-round win over the Jacksonville Jaguars was the highest-scoring game of the bunch with 47 points.
None of the last four Super Bowls had more than 51 points. Super Bowl 54 had exactly 51 points between the Chiefs and 49ers.
All of those results suggest the under should clear with ease. The argument for the under is helped more by Kansas City's one concession of more than 30 points and Philadelphia's 11 games with 17 points allowed or fewer.
Philadelphia's secondary, led by Darius Slay and James Bradberry, allowed just five passing performances of over 200 yards and a single 300-yard passing game. Three of those instances occurred in the first five weeks of the regular season.
Kansas City's four highest aerial concessions came in the opening seven weeks of the campaign. The Chiefs allowed 279 passing yards to the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 13 and the rest of their games featured 238 yards or fewer through the air from their opponents.
The Chiefs can be effective with their pass rush. Chris Jones has 17 tackles for loss and 15.5 sacks, while George Karlaftis and Frank Clark have 11 sacks between them.
Philadelphia led the NFL in sacks, and it had four players with 11 or more, led by Haason Reddick's 16. The Eagles also received 12 interceptions from C.J. Gardner-Johnson, Slay and Bradberry.
The Eagles secondary could make life difficult for Mahomes, which may lead to short drives and stops in the red zone that lead to field-goal attempts.
Even though Mahomes and Hurts are excellent quarterbacks and are capable of hitting the over on their best days, the defensive trends suggest the under is the way to go.
Prediction: Under 51
Patrick Mahomes' Passing Props
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Patrick Mahomes' passing props are set at 294.5 yards, 2.5 touchdowns. 25.5 completions and 38,5 attempts.
The Kansas City quarterback threw for 286 yards and two touchdowns in his first Super Bowl appearance. He followed that up with 270 yards and zero scoring throws a year later.
Mahomes has five 300-yard performances and seven games with three or more passing scores in his postseason career.
Those totals should give you some hope that Mahomes could go over his props, but his Super Bowl numbers and Philadelphia's passing defense may force the totals under the projected numbers.
The safest of the Mahomes props to bet may be his attempts prop. He has 35 passing attempts in 10 of his 13 playoff games and he has at least 39 throws in seven of those contests.
Kansas City could rely more on Mahomes in the passing game if the rushing attack is ineffective or if the Eagles' pass rush becomes an issue.
Mahomes might be asked to move out of the pocket or use short throws to Travis Kelce or his stable of running backs to combat the Philadelphia pressure.
Best Bet: Over 38.5 Pass Attempts
Jalen Hurts Props
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The betting market on Hurts is a bit different from Mahomes because he uses his legs far more often than his Super Bowl foe.
Hurts' passing props are set at 242.5 yards, 1.5 touchdowns, 20.5 completions and 31.5 attempts. His rushing yard prop is listed at 50.5.
The Eagles quarterback posted seven totals this season over his Super Bowl passing and rushing yard props.
He failed to reach the two projected totals in each of his two postseason appearances. He produced a total of 275 passing yards and 73 rushing yards in the blowout wins over the New York Giants and San Francisco 49ers.
The Eagles relied on their stable of running backs, led by Miles Sanders, to control the pace of both playoff games. Hurts spreads the ball around to A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert when necessary.
There may have been some hesitancy for Hurts to run because of the sprained shoulder that kept him out of Weeks 16 and 17. The two weeks of rest ahead of the Super Bowl may have helped his shoulder heal and that could lead to a more aggressive Hurts with his legs.
The overall success of the Eagles' rushing attack might limit Hurts' passing totals. The best way to bet Hurts could be through rushing props.
Hurts is listed at -105 (bet $105 to win $100) to score a rushing touchdown. He scored on the ground in five of his last six games, including a three-score game in Week 15 against the Chicago Bears.
Best Bet: Jalen Hurts to Score a Touchdown (-105)
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