Super Bowl Prop Bets 2023: Odds, Box Score, Point Spread Betting Advice
This year's Super Bowl matchup is far less surprising than last year's. While the Cincinnati Bengals and Los Angeles Rams both reached the big game as No. 4 seeds, the top seeds in each conference are set to compete in Super Bowl LVII.
This marks the first time that both top seeds have reached the final contest since the Eagles and New England Patriots did it following the 2017 season.
Philadelphia and Kansas City felt like safe bets to reach the Super Bowl for much of the regular season. Finding "safe" bets in Sunday's game will be a little trickier—though wagering fans will have plenty of options.
While traditional wagers on the moneyline, over/under and point spread are common, the Super Bowl provides all sorts of prop-bet opportunities. Fans can bet on numerous box-score props, with statistics like yards, touchdowns and sacks all in play.
Here, we'll dive into some of our favorite box-score prop bets from DraftKings Sportsbook and take a look at how the game might unfold.
Super Bowl LVII
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Super Bowl LVII
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Date: Sunday, February 12
Time: 6:30 p.m. ET
Location: State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona
TV and Live Stream: Fox, Fox Sports App
Line: PHI -1.5
Over/Under: 51
Box-Score Props
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Yards Gained on Opening Drive: Over/Under 38.5
When looking back on the box score, Sunday's opening drive could speak volumes about how the game unfolded. Did one team get out to a fast start? Was there a critical defensive stop or a turnover?
The over/under for the opening drive is set at 38.5 yards with -110 odds (bet $110 to win $100) on either side. While one defensive penalty could easily cause this one to hit the over, the under feels like the safer play.
The Eagles have a tremendous defense, one ranked second in yards allowed during the regular season. Kansas City ranked 11th in yards allowed and has an aggressive pass rush that accumulated 55 sacks during the regular season.
Expect this game to start slowly as the two sides figure out the opposing defense. A three-and-out to open the game would be entirely unsurprising.
Jalen Hurts Passing Yards: Over/Under 240.5
While Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts are both in the elite-quarterback conversation, Hurts is a little more well-known for his dual-threat ability. The Eagles signal-caller tallied 3,701 passing yards and 760 rushing yards during the regular season.
Because Hurts' rushing is such a big part of Philadelphia's ground-oriented offense, we like the under for this prop (at -125).
Expect the Eagles to attack a Chiefs run defense that ranked 15th in yards per carry allowed 4.4) instead of a pass defense that ranked fourth in yards per attempt surrendered (5.6). Unless the Eagles fall behind early, and by quite a bit, they probably won't use a pass-heavy approach.
Hurts only reached 241 passing yards seven times in 17 games this year (including playoffs), most recently against the Chicago Bears and a defense that ranked 32nd in yards per attempt allowed (7.4). Don't expect him to hit that number on Sunday.
Haason Reddick Sacks: Over/Under 0.25
Eagles pass-rusher Haason Reddick has been on a tear in the postseason, logging 3.5 sacks, two tackles for loss, a forced fumble and a fumble recovery in two games.
Yet his over/under is set for just 0.25 sacks for Super Bowl LVII. That means that a mere half-sack will net bettors the over.
While the odds aren't great at -180, the over does feel like the safe play here. Reddick notched at least a half-sack in 14 of 19 games this year, including the playoffs, and he's reached that number in 23 of 35 games dating back to the start of 2021.
If Reddick doesn't at least split a sack on Sunday, it will be because Chiefs tackles Orlando Brown Jr. and Andrew Wylie play one of the best games of their collective careers. While that could happen, it feels unlikely that Reddick won't take down Mahomes at least once.
Keys to the Game
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This is a game that could go either way, but after rewatching several 2022 games, I see two things working in Kansas City's favor.
The first is the Chiefs' ability to find holes in the defense both at the snap and on extended plays. Receivers like JuJu Smith-Schuster and Marquez Valdes-Scantling can create separation off the line, while tight end Travis Kelce is a master of finding secondary holes in the zone if his initial window isn't available.
While Eagles defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon will mix up coverages, he often utilizes a zone-heavy approach, and Kansas City can exploit that
The second factor will be Kansas City's ability to attack the perimeter with running backs Isiah Pacheco and Jerick McKinnon. Philadelphia's defensive strengths are on the back end and along the defensive interior. Its second-level defense is far less reliable.
The Eagles ranked 24th in yards per carry allowed (4.6) during the regular season. Kansas City can use its ground game to keep the defense honest.
Philadelphia can win by using a pass rush that logged 70 regular-season sacks to rattle Mahomes. That's a realistic strategy, considering Mahomes has been battling an ankle sprain since the divisional round.
"I don't know that he'll be 100 percent, but he sure isn't going to tell you otherwise," Chiefs franchise owner Clark Hunt told Fox News (h/t Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk).
Expect a close game with a late drive stealing a win. That could easily be Philly, but I have a hard time seeing Mahomes and Andy Reid exiting their third Super Bowl together with only one Lombardi Trophy to show for it.
Prediction: Chiefs 30, Eagles 27
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