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Kevin Durant. Jim McIsaac/Getty Images

Phoenix Suns Are Clear Favorites in 'Wide-Open' West After Kevin Durant Trade

Mo DakhilFeb 10, 2023

After the sun had set late into the eve of the Feb. 9 trade deadline, a new NBA power was brewing.

With Phoenix acquiring Kevin Durant and T.J. Warren, the Suns became the instant favorites to win the wide-open Western Conference. The Durant acquisition comes at a heavy cost for Phoenix: Mikal Bridges, Cameron Johnson, Jae Crowder (who was not playing for the Suns anyway), four first-round picks and a pick swap.

Just in case anyone is wondering—Durant is worth it.

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Now, the ultimate question is, how do the Suns deploy Durant in the valley?

Start by taking a look at Phoenix's offensive profile. The Suns are a heavy pick-and-roll team. (They have Chris Paul, so of course they are.)

According to Synergy Sports Technology, they run a pick-and-roll 23.9 percent of the time.

Durant can handle both responsibilities in the pick-and-roll. He is a dynamic pick-and-roll ball-handler with a 6'10" frame, and he has the highest points per possession this season as a pick-and-roll ball-handler with a minimum 100 possession at 1.19. That number shoots up to 1.24 when passes are included.

The best part for the Suns is that they can run a traditional pick-and-roll with Deandre Ayton as the screener. But they can also go with an inverted ball screen with Devin Booker or Chris Paul. See what Durant does here in similar situations with Brooklyn:

On top of being one of the best pick-and-roll players in the NBA this season, Durant can work as a willing screener. Just look at his time with the Golden State Warriors. There he often would team up with Stephen Curry using high ball screens, and he can switch it up by rolling hard to the rim or popping out for a three.

Regardless of which responsibility Durant takes in the Suns' pick-and-roll, the defenders in the action will be reluctant to switch, as Durant will go straight into his isolation game if they do.

If it is a big man on him, he can work to blow by them. If it is a guard, he will have the height advantage and can shoot right over the top.

Phoenix has mastered the Spain pick-and-roll, a three-man action that often yields open looks for three or lobs at the rim. The Suns can run the action with Ayton setting the first screen and one of Booker or Durant in the screening action and the other spacing on the weak side. Good luck to defenses trying to help on that action.

Now—picture this action with Paul coming off a Durant screen, and Booker screening for Durant and then popping out.

The Suns also rank fourth in spot-up shooting this season at 39.7 percent. Durant is another deadly spot-up shooter, as he's knocked down 43.3 percent of his spot-up shots on the year.

Going beyond the pick-and-roll-heavy offense, Monty Williams can use Durant as an off-ball player. He can operate off pindowns and shifts defenses. Durant was especially lethal in Golden State working off screens, as seen here:

This is just the tip of the iceberg with Durant, who is one of the best isolation scorers in the NBA. This season, he has a PPP of 1.02 in that scenario. Meaning the Suns will now have two players who can create their own shot at the end of possessions.

This takes us into Phoenix's shooting.

The Suns' projected starting lineup, excluding Ayton, has a ton of shooting. Torrey Craig connects on 40.2 percent from three, Paul is at 38.8 percent, Booker is shooting a respectable 36.8 percent and Durant is at 37.6 percent.

But the Suns' shooting is not limited to their starters. Damion Lee has been a revelation this season, hitting on 46.8 percent of 3.7 attempts. Landry Shamet, when healthy, is someone defenses have to account for. Even Saben Lee, who has been getting limited minutes, has shot 46.7 percent from three this season.

One fun aspect of this team: This will be the best mid-range shooting team ever. Durant shoots 57.1 percent in the mid-range on an average of seven shots per game. Paul is known as a mid-range legend. Booker is getting in on the mid-range game with six shots on 46.7 percent.

Years ago, the thought was the mid-range shot was dead—but it will be alive and well in Phoenix.

Basically, the Suns have a ridiculous amount of shooting that will result in significant open space. And one of the biggest beneficiaries will be Ayton.

With the floor so spread, Ayton will roll into a massive amount of space. If teams pull in too hard off the weak side, he can operate in the short roll.

Another important piece of the trade is Warren, who is working his way back after a two-year run of injuries. Prior to his foot injury, Warren was coming on strong for the Pacers. This season he has been playing limited minutes and has done well, averaging 9.5 points. If the Suns can get him to provide a punch off the bench, this team becomes even deeper.

The loss of Bridges and Johnson will hurt the Suns' defensive depth, but adding another offensive dynamo in Durant will give Monty Williams rotation options to keep threats on the floor constantly. There should be no moment that the Suns do not have at least two of Durant, Booker, Paul and Ayton on the floor through the course of a game.

Health will remain a big factor for this team as Durant has an MCL sprain, Booker just returned from a groin injury and Paul has missed extended time on two different occasions. That's enough to keep the Suns' training staff busy.

Fully healthy, this will be an absurdly tough team to defend. Phoenix can hurt teams at all three levels of scoring and has two players that can catch fire in a moment. The Suns can run a bevy of offensive sets, and they will attack second-side actions if their initial attacks break down.

To say this is a win-now trade for the Suns is an understatement.

This is a MUST WIN A CHAMPIONSHIP trade. And Phoenix is all-in with Durant, finally, on board.


Stats via Synergy Sports Technology and NBA.com and up to date entering Thursday's games.

Mo Dakhil spent six years with the Los Angeles Clippers and two years with the San Antonio Spurs as a video coordinator, as well as three years with the Australian men's national team. Follow him on Twitter, @MoDakhil_NBA.

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