Predicting 5 New NBA Players to Hit the Next Trade Market
Here's something to keep that in mind now that we've moved past the 2023 deadline: NBA trade chatter is a renewable resource.
When one rumor resolves in the form of a long-expected deal, another arises to take its place. Call it the circle of NBA transactional life. There is no end to the supply of disgruntled stars seeking new locales or desperate franchises looking to offload or upgrade.
Here, we'll look ahead to the next batch of players most likely to be the subject of trade speculation, focusing on the ones who weren't common topics of discussion this season or, more specifically, at this most recent trade deadline.
Some familiar faces won't appear. Though Zach LaVine, DeMar DeRozan, Pascal Siakam and a handful of other big names didn't wind up changing teams, they were already residents of the rumor mill ahead of the 2023 deadline and will continue to live there through the offseason. We're not concerned with them.
What we're after are the new additions—the players who weren't on the block before but could be soon. Whether it's this summer or the 2024 deadline, these are the guys who'll make up the next wave of oft-discussed trade candidates.
Let's See How the Playoffs Go
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In lieu of an Honorable Mention section, the following players belong in a separate section than the rest of the potential next-market entrants. These are guys who won't become available unless their teams' 2023 postseason performances fall well short of expectations.
Joel Embiid, Philadelphia 76ers
The Sixers certainly won't put Embiid on the block, especially if he matches or beats his past two years of second-place finishes in the MVP race. But if Philly stumbles in the playoffs and James Harden falters on that stage once again, Embiid will have to look around and wonder if he'd be better off switching things up.
A trade demand could be in the offing if the Sixers bow out in the first or second round.
Jaylen Brown, Boston Celtics
The Celtics have been a postseason presence in every season of Brown's career, and they came within two wins of a title last year. There's a strong case to be made that keeping this core together and running it back for another handful of seasons is the best way to maximize a shot at a championship breakthrough.
That's never how these things work, though.
Boston may not need to win the whole thing, but if it suffers a playoff stumble prior to the conference finals and determines something more than a roster tweak is necessary to get over the hump, Brown will be the best asset to effect change.
Trae Young, Atlanta Hawks
Young failed to make the All-Star team for the second time in the past three years. The defining features of his season to date are a shockingly low 31.9 percent hit rate from deep and the bouts of controversy with Nate McMillan that nearly resulted in a coaching change.
With the Hawks hovering around .500 and failing to take the leap management expected when trading for Dejounte Murray, it's entirely possible this is Young's last shot to prove he's the same player and leader that hauled his team to the Eastern Conference Finals in 2021.
If Atlanta puts a run together, Young may never become the subject of much speculation. If it falls flat, his name will be a regular presence in trade talk.
LeBron James, Los Angeles Lakers
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LeBron James wasn't eligible to be dealt this season because of the two-year, $97 million extension he signed in August 2022. That agreement came with a six-month trade prohibition that expires five days after the 2023 deadline.
That defanged James' various complaints and expressions of disappointment about the state of the Los Angeles Lakers roster. However justified James' frustrations may have been, the Lakers knew he couldn't force his way out of the situation—one he was at least partly responsible for creating—until the offseason.
If the Lakers fall short of James' expectations again, he will head into the summer justifiably skeptical that better days are ahead. Another year older and having already secured the all-time scoring record as a Laker, James would undoubtedly be the subject of trade speculation no matter what hypothetical assurances of loyalty he might give.
I mean, The Athletic's David Aldridge got the ball rolling on that topic in January. With James' trade restriction expiring and upping his leverage, do we really expect that momentum to slow?
James could stay silent on his team and his future, and the objective facts would still warrant rampant speculation. The clock on his late prime will be ticking faster, his urgency to win one more title will be greater and the expiration of his trade restriction will dramatically increase his power over the franchise. Even now, James' influence is clear. Los Angeles dealt away one of its two precious first-round picks, a 2027 selection with top-four protection, in the deal that brought back D'Angelo Russell, Malik Beasley and Jarred Vanderbilt.
Obviously, an explicit trade request would shift things into overdrive, and though James has never made one, he has used short contracts to exert similar pressure on his teams.
Executives around the league are wisely prepared for the possibility of him becoming available.
Karl-Anthony Towns, Minnesota Timberwolves
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It's hard to escape the feeling that if the Minnesota Timberwolves could have traded Karl-Anthony Towns prior to this year's deadline, they might have at least considered it. The supermax extension Towns signed during the offseason took that option off the table, though. KAT couldn't be traded for a full calendar year.
When that restriction expires in July, Minnesota will only have its own restraint standing in the way of a Towns trade.
Towns has missed months with a calf injury this year, but he performed below expectations when healthy. He's averaging just 20.8 points with the worst box plus/minus since his rookie season, and he's struggled to find a fit with new frontcourt partner Rudy Gobert.
Gobert's addition was never going to be seamless, but the optics weren't great when Towns, just extended for four years and $224 million, started so slowly. Minnesota's massive outlay to get Gobert was an acknowledgment that Towns couldn't function as a defensive anchor at the 5, but he still wasn't playing all that well after Gobert relieved him of that responsibility. Toss in some conspicuous playoff no-shows, and the notion that Towns shouldn't be untouchable gains traction.
Towns' calf injury has so limited his reps with Gobert that the Wolves may not feel comfortable making a move until they've seen enough to be certain the duo won't work. But because Gobert almost immediately became a negative asset after Minnesota gave up so much to get him, and because Anthony Edwards is going nowhere, a Towns trade may ultimately be the only lever left to pull. In other words, if the Wolves are going to make another significant change in search of improvements, trading KAT is the way to do it.
Teams like the New York Knicks must be watching from afar, shuffling their stack of future first-round picks like poker chips and waiting for the right moment to shove them into the pot.
Luka Dončić, Dallas Mavericks
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When the Dallas Mavericks traded for Kyrie Irving, they admitted their desperation. How else can you describe a team giving up an unprotected first-round pick and two quality rotation players for arguably the least-reliable star in the league—one who isn't even under contract beyond this season?
It was a gamble made by a franchise that understood its most important player, Luka Dončić, does not have an endless supply of patience. Dallas had tried and failed to find Dončić a suitable star teammate several times over, and adding Irving is just the latest (and highest-risk) attempt. Prior to the deal, ESPN's Tim MacMahon reported Dončić "strongly indicated he wants the Mavs to upgrade before the Feb. 9 trade deadline."
This might be the ultimate "be careful what you wish for" situation, and it won't take long to see if that's the case.
The Mavs will hit an inflection point after this season. The Irving experiment will either work, resulting in team success, a contract extension for Irving and the renewal of Dončić's faith in the franchise...or it won't. Frankly, there are far more ways for things to go wrong than right.
Irving may not fit well with Dončić on the floor, validating concerns about there only being one basketball for two high-usage stars to share.
Irving might simply leave in free agency.
Irving could embroil himself in controversy, miss games and generally fail to embrace a team concept, just as he did in Cleveland, Boston and Brooklyn.
If things go sideways, Dallas will have fewer assets to use in another recovery than it did before what might (in a disaster scenario) only be a half-season Irving rental. And no, the Mavericks opening up cap space in the event of an Irving exit is not a "bright side." It'd be better described as giving away Spencer Dinwiddie and Dorian Finney-Smith and then setting an unprotected first-round pick on fire.
Another possibility: Even if things go well this year, Irving and Dončić may not be good enough to contend in a West that got better at the 2023 deadline without more help. If Irving re-signs this summer after a harmonious but ultimately unsuccessful season, it'd vaporize Dallas' cap space, locking the team into the current roster for another year. Dončić could then decide the Mavs are still outside the league's top tier even with a second star, and angle for an exit.
Dončić is under guaranteed contract through 2025-26 with a player option for 2026-27, which means Dallas will retain leverage in the event he makes a trade demand out of frustration. And should Dončić actually hit the market, the Mavs can expect one of the biggest trade returns in NBA history.
That may be small consolation for Dallas, which could soon face the very real scenario of its franchise cornerstone deciding he'd rather continue his Hall of Fame career elsewhere.
Bradley Beal, Washington Wizards
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Eventually, the Washington Wizards will realize they can't get off the sub-mediocrity treadmill until they disentangle themselves from Bradley Beal's five-year, $251 million contract.
Beal is a good player, which is easy to forget because of his salary. But Washington cannot succeed in any meaningful way when paying him as if he's a surefire All-NBA superstar. Those 22.4 points and 5.1 assists are nice, but Beal ranks 120th in total win shares on the season, right behind the New York Knicks' Quentin Grimes. For reference, Grimes is earning $2.3 million this year, less than two times what Beal has earned per game played in 2022-23.
Maybe it's naive to think Washington will come to understand reality so soon after giving Beal his enormous contract. Maybe Beal's no-trade clause (the only one that currently exists in the NBA) makes any serious talk of moving him moot. Maybe the sheer staggering weight of his contract will render him literally unmovable until the deal nears its expiration in, say, 2026. Those are all valid concerns.
But this isn't a suggestion that trading Beal will be easy. It's just speculation that Washington will be willing to try as soon as this offseason.
It has to. The alternative is doubling down by re-signing Kyle Kuzma and Kristaps Porziņģis to hefty new deals, overspending to address the persistent void at point guard and hoping roughly the same mix of talent that's on pace to win 37 games this season magically adds 10 or 15 victories to that total.
Damian Lillard, Portland Trail Blazers
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The Portland Trail Blazers are shutting them down, per Bleacher Report and TNT's Chris Haynes, but it's telling that inquiries about Damian Lillard were pouring in mere hours before the 2023 trade deadline.
Lillard has done nothing but profess his loyalty to the Blazers, and they've responded in kind with maximum contracts and extensions at their earliest opportunities. This feels like a rock-solid partnership that only those outside the organization have ever questioned.
That said, Portland missed the playoffs last season and is far from a championship contender this year, even after rebuilding the roster with an eye toward winning big during what remains of Lillard's prime. The Blazers' deadline acquisition of sticky-fingered, disruptive wing Matisse Thybulle, as first reported by Haynes, will help bolster a defense that has ranked among the bottom five for most of this season. But the 25-year-old with the career 32.5 percent hit rate from deep isn't the last piece of a championship puzzle. If that were the case, the title-hungry Philadelphia 76ers would have kept him.
This feels a little like cheating, because we began the Lillard discussion with reports that other teams were poking around Portland, gauging whether he or the Blazers were ready to admit a championship with the current core isn't on the horizon. It doesn't take much more than interest from other organizations to land a player in trade rumors. But in addition to said interest, we've also got the optics of a late-prime, title-less superstar continuing to produce for a team that isn't holding up its end of the bargain.
Lillard has been more patient than most, but even he can't wait forever.
Stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference and Cleaning the Glass. Accurate through Feb. 9. Salary info via Spotrac.
Grant Hughes covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@gt_hughes), and subscribe to the Hardwood Knocks podcast, where he appears with Bleacher Report's Dan Favale.
