Bleacher Report's Expert Super Bowl LVII Picks

We're just days away from Super Bowl 57 at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona as the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles prepare to square off for the coveted Lombardi Trophy.

The Eagles hope that history repeats itself in a matchup between the top seeds in the AFC and NFC, because the last time the No. 1 seeds played in the title game, Philadelphia beat the New England Patriots 41-33 in Super Bowl 52. With two of the top three scoring offenses on the field Sunday, we could see a similar final score between the Eagles and Chiefs.

NFL analysts Gary Davenport, Brent Sobleski, Kris Knox, Brad Gagnon and Maurice Moton, editor Wes O'Donnell and B/R Betting host of "Winners Only Wednesdays" Greg Ivory have a lot of thoughts about the upcoming matchup. So, we're going to give you picks against the spread, over/under selections, MVP predictions, projections for the best defensive performance and prop bets to bank on for the game.

First, check out our leaderboard standings for playoff picks against the spread, with the conference championship results for each expert in parentheses. Now, buckle up as B/R's betting crew dives into the Super Bowl 57 matchup.

T-1. Gagnon: 7-5 (2-0)

T-1. Sobleski: 7-5 (1-1)

3. O'Donnell: 6-6 (1-1)

T-4. Ivory: 5-7 (1-1)

T-4. Knox: 5-7 (1-1)

T-4. Moton: 5-7 (0-2)

7. Davenport: 4-8 (1-1)

Consensus picks: 5-7

Lines are from DraftKings as of Thursday, Feb. 9, at 4 p.m. ET. Check DraftKings for the latest odds info. Information on public betting trends courtesy of the Action Network.

The Details

AP Photo/Matt York

Lane Johnson

When: Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET

TV: Fox

Location: State Farm Stadium, Glendale, Arizona

Expected attendance: 65,000

Early line: Philadelphia -1.5

Early total: 51

Referee: Carl Cheffers

Chiefs injuries to watch: The Kansas City Chiefs saw three of their wide receivers leave with injuries in the AFC Championship Game. They placed Mecole Hardman (pelvis) on injured reserve, but on a positive note, JuJu Smith-Schuster (knee) went through a full practice while Kadarius Toney (ankle and hamstring) had a limited session on Wednesday.

Quarterback Patrick Mahomes, who played through a high ankle sprain in the AFC Championship Game, logged a full practice to start the week. Linebacker Willie Gay (shoulder), guard Trey Smith (ankle) and running backs Isiah Pacheco (wrist) and Jerick McKinnon (ankles) also went through a full practice.

Eagles injuries to watch: Jalen Hurts is nursing a shoulder sprain, but he hasn't appeared on the injury report. The Eagles will likely have their starting offensive line intact. Left guard Landon Dickerson hyperextended his elbow in the fourth quarter of the NFC Championship Game, but he went through a full practice Wednesday. When discussing his groin injury, Lane Johnson told reporters, "It's better now." He played through pain in the last two playoff games, but the two-time All-Pro right tackle went through a limited practice as part of a rest day to start the week.

Backup offensive lineman Cam Jurgens (hip) and cornerback Avonte Maddox (toe) also had a rest day with limited activity on Wednesday. Meanwhile, edge-rusher Robert Quinn (foot) logged a full practice.

The ATS Pick

David Eulitt/Getty Images

Travis Kelce (left) and Patrick Mahomes (right)

Davenport: Eagles -1.5

To be clear, this is a Super Bowl that could easily go either way; it's the closest matchup on paper in recent memory. And counting out Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs would be…unwise. But about the only thing the Eagles don't do at an elite level is defend the run. Philly is going to move the ball and score points. And the Eagles' abjectly terrifying pass rush is going to pressure Mahomes. Mahomes is a great player. Andy Reid is a great coach. But the Eagles are the better team, and they're going win a closely contested and exciting Super Bowl.

Gagnon: Chiefs +1.5

The Eagles are the more talented overall team, but the Chiefs have advantages where it really matters in the Super Bowl. They have the better quarterback, the better coach and significantly more Super Bowl experience than Philly. People are overlooking the fact that this team is way more battle-tested than the Eagles, and we're making too much of Mahomes' ankle injury and failing to consider that Jalen Hurts likely isn't 100 percent either.

Ivory: Chiefs +1.5

Knox: Chiefs +1.5

Andy Reid (27-4 after the bye week) and the Chiefs have had two weeks to prepare for this one, and I think they'll come up with a plan to attack one of the top defenses in the NFL. That plan will involve repeatedly testing a run defense ranked 24th in yards per carry allowed (4.6). It wasn't much of an issue for Philly in the NFC title game because the San Francisco 49ers essentially lost the threat of the pass for the entire second half. That won't be the case Sunday, unless Mahomes exits the game.

I see Mahomes adding to his resume with another late drive (either from behind or tied), but Isiah Pacheco and Jerick McKinnon will be the real difference-makers. They can control the tempo to keep Kansas City's defense fresh and Mahomes within striking distance.

Moton: Eagles -1.5

So far this postseason, the Eagles have faced the New York Giants' mediocre 15th-ranked scoring offense and the 49ers' disjointed offense, which featured an injured Brock Purdy and fourth-string quarterback Josh Johnson under center. That leaves questions about their dominant defensive playoff performances. On Sunday, we're going to see Philadelphia's stout defense slow down Kansas City's No. 1 scoring offense just enough to allow the club to win by a field goal on a late drive. Mahomes will find it extremely difficult to move the ball against the league's No. 1 defense in passing yards allowed and sacks in a 28-24 loss.

O'Donnell: Chiefs +1.5

Patrick Mahomes is getting points. It's almost that simple. The Eagles have looked every bit of a juggernaut in their two playoff games, but they haven't seen a team as good as the Chiefs all season. Coach Reid isn't going to fall against his old team. He and Mahomes are in their fifth postseason together and in a Super Bowl in three of their last four. I can't imagine looking back and seeing they've won only one title during that run. I'm taking the Chiefs and even looking to give points.

Sobleski: Eagles -1.5

Three categories often define Super Bowl winners: No. 1, overall roster quality, specifically depth; No. 2, high-caliber coaching; and No. 3, catching lightning in a bottle to some degree. Between the Chiefs and Eagles, the latter appears to have an advantage in two of the three, by featuring the league's best roster, including dominant trench play and making this run with a quarterback on a rookie contract that allowed the organization to take chances in other areas. The Chiefs are truly great in multiple areas, but the Eagles are the better overall team right now.

Consensus ATS pick: Chiefs +1.5

The O/U Pick

AP Photo/Chris Szagola

A.J. Brown

Davenport: Over (51)

It's entirely possible that things will start a bit slowly as the Eagles and Chiefs shake off the jitters and feel one another out. But this is the AFC's highest-scoring team against the NFC's highest-scoring team, and they combined to average 57.3 points per game in the regular season. Gonna have to save those bathroom breaks for the commercials.

Gagnon: Over (51)

The Chiefs are almost always good for mid-20s scoring outputs. They've scored 23 or more points in 11 straight games. The Eagles defense is a force right now, but they've also scored 69 points in two playoff outings. It's hard to imagine either team scoring fewer than 24 on Sunday, which is why I'm rolling with the over and a 28-27 Chiefs victory.

Ivory: Over (51)

Knox: Over (51)

I think the scoring starts off slowly as both sides feel out the opposing defenses. However, there are too many explosive players in this one for the scoring to stay contained. We're talking about two top-three scoring offenses and two aggressive, but not perfect, defenses. I could see a sub-20-point first half followed by an explosion after the break that hits the over in the final minutes.

Moton: Over (51)

For the 2022 campaign, including the playoffs, the Chiefs have scored at least 24 points in 15 out of 19 games. On the flip side, they rank 16th in points allowed and surrendered the most passing touchdowns during the regular season. Kansas City may need to press on the offensive side of the ball to offset some of its defensive lapses in coverage. Chiefs head coach Andy Reid could come out with an aggressive game plan to give his team a cushion in case wideouts A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith eat up Kansas City's secondary when Philadelphia has the ball.

O'Donnell: Over (51)

The Eagles are averaging 34.5 points in two postseason games, the Chiefs 25. It's not out of the realm of possibility that this game has a feeling-out period and defenses take charge, but these two teams can score with the best of them. So, I expect the points to ring up even if it doesn't happen until the second half.

Sobleski: Under (51)

Both squads feature top-three offenses. It's only logical to assume they'll easily blow past the over. The Super Bowl is different, though. Slow starts are the norm as nerves, a feeling-out period and a supreme aversion to making critical mistakes often slow the best teams through the first quarter of play. Furthermore, the Eagles could easily turn this into a slugfest where the run game is vital because they won't allow Patrick Mahomes and Co. to push the ball deep. Jonathan Gannon's defensive scheme is predicated on forcing opposing quarterbacks to be patient.

Consensus O/U Pick: Over (51)

The MVP Prediction

AP Photo/David J. Philip

Patrick Mahomes

Davenport: Jalen Hurts, QB, Eagles

This isn't exactly going out on a limb given that I picked the Eagles to win—saying that the winning quarterback has an inside track to winning MVP is an understatement. But Hurts' rushing ability makes it that much more likely he'll be the engine for a Philadelphia victory, allowing him to extract a measure of revenge for (probably) losing the regular-season MVP race to Patrick Mahomes.

Gagnon: Patrick Mahomes, QB, Chiefs

Keep it simple, stupid. He's the best player in the game, and he's the quarterback of the team that will be victorious Sunday evening.

Ivory: Patrick Mahomes, QB, Chiefs

Knox: Patrick Mahomes, QB, Chiefs

While I think Isiah Pacheco will actually be deserving of the honor, I could see a repeat of Super Bowl LIV—where Mahomes essentially stole the award from Damien Williams with a clutch performance late. The league loves quarterbacks, and unless someone truly goes off, I think the winning one claims the award on Sunday.

Moton: A.J. Brown, WR, Eagles

The Chiefs will field a young and inexperienced secondary in this matchup with rookie cornerbacks Trent McDuffie (first-round pick) and Jaylen Watson (seventh-round pick) set to play in big roles. Both cover men played a majority of the defensive snaps in Kansas City's last two outings (with and without cornerback L'Jarius Sneed healthy for a full game). Following a couple of modest outings in which he hauled in seven passes for 50 yards in blowout victories, Brown comes up big with nine catches for 125 yards and two touchdowns against the Chiefs' vulnerable pass defense.

O'Donnell: Travis Kelce, TE Chiefs

If Mahomes isn't at his tippy top, otherworldly best, who is he going to lean on? The Eagles will want anyone but Travis Kelce to beat them, but that's a lot easier said than done. This award has a tendency to skew toward the winning QB (31 of 56 have gone to a QB), and no tight end has ever won the award. Who better than Travis Kelce to change that?

Sobleski: A.J. Brown, WR, Eagles

The Eagles' trade for Brown has gone better than general manager Howie Roseman could have ever dreamed. Philly's WR1 set a new single-season franchise record of 1,496 receiving yards to eclipse Mike Quick's 29-year-old mark. More importantly, Brown will be matched up against one of the Chiefs' rookie cornerbacks, either Joshua Williams or Trent McDuffie, at some point. The Eagles should take full advantage of that setup to jumpstart the offense.

Consensus MVP pick: Patrick Mahomes, QB, Chiefs

Best Defensive Performance

AP Photo/Chris Szagola

Haason Reddick

Davenport: Haason Reddick, Edge, Eagles

Reddick has been a force for the Eagles this year, and the playoffs have been no different. He racked up 1.5 sacks in the divisional round against the Giants and added two more in the NFC Championship Game. The Eagles' pass rush is so stacked that it's hard to focus on any one player, and Reddick has shown all season that blocking him one-on-one is easier said than done.

Gagnon: Chris Jones, DT, Chiefs

How do you not go with a first-team All-Pro and DPOY candidate coming off a 15.5-sack season? Jones dominated the Cincinnati Bengals, and there's no reason to expect him to be less of a factor on Sunday.

Ivory: Chris Jones, DT, Chiefs

Knox: Haason Reddick, Edge, Eagles

Win or lose, I see Reddick having a huge impact on this game. He's logged 3.5 sacks, two tackles for loss, four quarterback hits, a forced fumble and a fumble recovery in two postseason games. I think his dominance continues on Sunday and, in fact, I think he'll be a viable MVP candidate if the Eagles end up winning.

Moton: Haason Reddick, Edge, Eagles

On Monday, Reddick said, "I don't feel I get enough respect as a pass rusher." Despite three consecutive seasons with at least 11 sacks, he's not the type of household name that's mentioned along with Nick Bosa, T.J. Watt or Myles Garrett, but the Pro Bowl edge-rusher will garner the appropriate respect under the bright lights of the Super Bowl. The Chiefs have a weak link on the offensive line in right tackle Andrew Wylie, who allowed nine sacks during the regular season, per Pro Football Focus. Reddick can take advantage of a favorable matchup, racking up multiple sacks with a few tackles for loss in an eye-opening performance.

O'Donnell: L'Jarius Sneed, CB, Chiefs

Not expected to shadow either of the Eagles' star wide receivers as far as we know, Sneed's versatility should allow him to be in and around play a lot. And even if he is tasked with locking down, say, A.J. Brown, how he handles things will have a huge impact on the outcome of this game. I see him rising to the occasion and being a difference-maker for K.C.

Sobleski: Haason Reddick, Edge, Eagles

Reddick has been on an absolute tear since the start of December with 11.5 sacks and three forced fumbles in his last eight games. His explosiveness off the edge will be too much for the Kansas City Chiefs' offensive tackles—Orlando Brown Jr. and Andrew Wylie—to handle for an entire game. Eventually, Reddick is going to get home, especially since Mahomes won't be quite as mobile as he normally is.

Consensus best defensive performance pick: Haason Reddick

Top Prop Recommendation

Christian Petersen/Getty Images

Travis Kelce

Davenport: Offensive lineman catches one-plus receiving touchdowns (+3500)

Are there more likely prop bets for Super Bowl LVII? Oh, yes. But in the last game of the season, you might as well have a little fun. The Chiefs are well known for all sorts of red-zone chicanery, and the Super Bowl is a game that causes both teams involved to dust off plays from the wacky section of the playbook. Betting the kids' college fund on this would be, um, not good. But given that six bucks would net you over $200, it's a nice lottery ticket play.

Gagnon: Patrick Mahomes under 18.5 rushing yards (-115)

I know it takes just one broken play to lose this one, but Mahomes' ankle is still a factor, and he's actually been held to eight rushing yards in four of his last five games.

Knox: A quarterback catches at least one pass (+1200)

It's the last game of the year, and these teams can't hold anything back. I'd expect at least a couple of gadget plays, and a pass to the QB feels like as good of an option as any to wager on. I'm not so sure we see anything as memorable as the Philly Special, but with two athletic quarterbacks, I can see one team trying something similar. Odd things can happen too, like the Week 17 batted pass that turned into a completion and a reception by Patrick Mahomes. If it's in the game book as a reception, it counts, right?

Moton: Any player to have a 55-plus-yard reception (+250)

To drive home a point about the Chiefs' suspect pass defense, either A.J. Brown or DeVonta Smith should have a big game against rookie cornerbacks Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson. Brown is the big-play receiver who averaged 17 yards per catch for the regular season. He's more likely to beat the Chiefs for a big reception as Philadelphia tries to keep pace or answer Kansas City's No. 1 scoring offense on a pivotal drive. By the way, the Chiefs have three players—Jerick McKinnon, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Justin Watson—who recorded a 56-plus-yard reception in the regular season.

O'Donnell: Field goal or an extra point to hit an upright or crossbar (+450)

It's the Super Bowl, and strange things happen. A kicker hitting the upright isn't that strange in today's game with more difficult extra-point settings. The odds aren't super long here for a reason, and it seems like an unsurprising scenario, so I'm rolling with it.

Sobleski: Travis Kelce over 77.5 yards (-130)

Easy money alert! In Kelce's last eight postseason appearances, he averaged about 104 receiving yards per game and never dipped below 78 yards even once. Now factor in Mahomes' lingering ankle injury and the Eagles' defensive approach, and the Chiefs' quick passing game with Kelce being asked to control the middle of the field will be more important than ever.

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