AFC Championship Game 2023: Updated Odds, Prop Bets for Bengals vs. Chiefs
While many fans were bracing for an epic showdown between the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game, the Cincinnati Bengals had other ideas.
The Bengals rolled the Bills last weekend to set up another battle with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. This will mark the fourth contest between these two teams over the past two years and their second straight meeting in the AFC title game.
With storylines aplenty—including Mahomes' injured ankle—this should be a tightly contested and memorable battle. Joe Burrow and the Bengals have won each of the previous three meetings, but it's been close.
Kansas City has led by at least a touchdown in each of the last three games against Cincinnati.
There will be plenty of reasons to watch Sunday night's game, and fans who fancy a wager or two will have no shortage of options. Here, you'll find a look at the latest odds, along with some intriguing prop bets and predictions.
Game Info and Odds
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Date: Sunday, January 29
Time: 6:30 p.m. ET
TV and Live Stream: CBS, Paramount+
Money Line: Chiefs -120 (bet $120 to win $100), Bengals -100 (bet $100 to win $100)
Line: KC -1.5
Over/Under: 48
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Game Preview and Prediction
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Fans who have been tracking this game will note that the line has moved back toward Kansas City. The Bengals were favored early in the week, largely because of the ankle injury Mahomes suffered against the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Mahomes gave way to backup Chad Henne in the second quarter. While he did return for the second half—and finished with 195 passing yards and two touchdowns—there's no telling how healthy he'll be on Sunday. The signs, though, have been positive.
"He looks good," Chiefs coach Andy Reid said on Friday, per NFL.com's Kevin Patra. "He's moving around good."
Of course, plenty of intrigue remains. Burrow is challenging Mahomes as the best quarterback in football, and Bengals defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo has figured out how to contain Reid, Mahomes and the Chief's offense.
Whether the Chiefs have Mahomes or not, the Bengals absolutely can win their fourth straight over Kansas City.
However, Cincinnati is dealing with injuries of its own. The Bengals have lost right tackle La'el Collins for the season to a torn ACL, and they won't have left tackle Jonah Williams and guard Alex Cappa for the second straight game.
While the Bills were unable to capitalize on Cincinnati's shaky offensive line, a Chiefs pass rush that logged 55 sacks in the regular season can. Burrow doesn't wilt under pressure, but Kansas City can disrupt his timing.
The Baltimore Ravens had success with this in the wild-card round and may have knocked off the Bengals if not for Sam Hubbard's electrifying 98-yard fumble return for the game-winning touchdown.
A less-than-healthy Mahomes is still better than most quarterbacks, and the Chiefs have the sort of complete team that can help carry him to his third Super Bowl appearance.
Prediction: Chiefs 30, Bengals 27
Prop Bets
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Joe Burrow Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
While the Chiefs defense can get after Burrow, it's not going to contain him completely. The former LSU star is as good at recognizing coverages pre-snap as anyone in the league, and he'll know where to go with the ball, especially in the red zone.
This is why Burrow's passing prop of over/under 1.5 touchdowns is enticing. Burrow is -175 (bet $175 to win $100) to hit the over, and there's a strong chance he does.
Over his last seven games, Burrow has reached two passing touchdowns five times. In the two games where he fell short, he faced the division-rival Ravens. Baltimore is very familiar with Burrow and is one of a select handful of teams that knows how to defend him.
The Chiefs are not among those teams, and Burrow has thrown at least two touchdowns in each of the previous three meetings. Expect him to do it again on Sunday.
Ja'Marr Chase Under 6.5 Receptions
While Burrow will have his opportunities to shine, expect the Chiefs to do their best to take away top target Ja'Marr Chase.
This will likely mean a healthy dose of top cornerback L'Jarius Sneed and even more double coverage.
Chase has caught at least seven passes in each of his past 10 games, so the over is tempting here. However, at -130, the over isn't all that enticing. Chase had exactly seven receptions against the Chiefs in the last meeting, and it's not hard to envision him falling one reception short.
The Bengals have other quality targets, including Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd and Hayden Hurts, plus running backs Joe Mixon and Samaje Perine. At even odds, the under for Chase is the safer play.
Travis Kelce Over 7.5 Receptions
The under of 7.5 receptions (at -150) also feels like fool's gold for Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce. Yes, the Bengals held him to just four receptions in the last meeting, but Kelce remains Mahomes' best security blanket.
With a bad ankle and limited mobility, Mahomes will likely rely on Kelce early and often on Sunday.
With a trip to the Super Bowl on the line, Kelce figures to be a huge piece of the offensive game plan. That's how it went down in last year's AFC title game, a contest Kelce finished with 10 receptions, 95 yards and a touchdown.
Expect Reid to get Kelce involved early with high-percentage short passes that allow him to gain yards after the catch. Those yards may be hard to come by against a swarming Bengals defense, but the receptions should come in bunches.
Kelce is +120 to hit the over.
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