2023 NFL Free Agents: Latest Rumors & Predictions for Lamar Jackson, Tom Brady, More
With the first round of the NFL playoffs nearly complete, four more teams are moving on to the offseason. The Minnesota Vikings and Baltimore Ravens saw their seasons end Sunday, and they'll join the teams that have already turned their attention to free agency.
The open market is scheduled to kick off March 15, and several big-name players are set to be available. One of them was sorely missed in Baltimore's loss to the Cincinnati Bengals.
Lamar Jackson, who is dealing with a PCL injury, hasn't played since Week 13. The Ravens went 2-4 without him and now have a huge decision to make regarding the Louisville product's future.
Here, you'll find the latest buzz and a few predictions for Jackson and some other top players who may hit the market in roughly two months.
Ravens Still View Jackson as Franchise Quarterback
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The situation surrounding Jackson and the Ravens is getting murkier by the week. It's hard to fault Jackson for wanting to avoid making his PCL injury worse, but the fact that he didn't even travel with Baltimore for Sunday's game is a bit bizarre.
Is Jackson ready to move on from the Ravens? According to NFL Media's Ian Rapoport, the Ravens aren't ready to move on from Jackson.
"My understanding is that the Ravens have not changed their stance about Lamar Jackson and still view him as their franchise quarterback and expect to begin negotiations on a potential long-term deal as soon as possible," Rapoport said on NFL Network.
The problem is that Jackson has now finished two consecutive seasons on the sideline because of injuries. He's looking for a fully guaranteed long-term deal, according to The Athletic's Mike Sando, but it's hard to imagine Baltimore offering that, given his recent injury history.
"Has he improved as a passer?" one evaluator told Sando. "Sure, but he is a running quarterback, and how is it different than the running back position? It is different in terms of number of hits, but the hits can be worse for a quarterback to take. I just would not commit to him more than a year or two."
While Baltimore and Jackson may not be headed for a split, it's hard to envision them finding common ground on a long-term deal. The Ravens will most likely want him to prove he can finish a season healthy before offering up hundreds of millions in guarantees. The guess here is that they'll first give Jackson the franchise tag and then work on an extension from there.
The big question is whether Baltimore does extend Jackson or decides to trade the tagged Jackson and start over at quarterback.
Prediction: Jackson receives the franchise tag
The Buccaneers Hope to See Tom Brady Return
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There's a chance that Jackson has already played his final game as a Raven. There's also a chance that Monday night's game will be Tom Brady's last with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Like Jackson, Brady's contract is set to expire.
Brady will turn 46 in August and, unlike Jackson, may be eyeing retirement (again).
The 8-9 Buccaneers didn't look like a title contender in the regular season, but they reportedly hope to make another run with Brady in 2023.
"They very much want [Brady] back and plan to make efforts toward that," Rapoport said on NFL GameDay.
The issue for Tampa is that returning or retiring aren't Brady's only options. Rapoport has reported that the San Francisco 49ers will weigh the idea of signing Brady in the offseason. Sports Illustrated's Albert Breer told the Dan Patrick Show that the Las Vegas Raiders are also interested.
"I can tell you unequivocally, this is a fact: The Raiders are looking into it. Like, the Raiders are looking into going and acquiring Tom Brady," Breer said. "... This is something that the Raiders are doing their research on. Same goes for Jimmy Garoppolo."
The reality is that Brady will have teams to choose from if he decides to continue playing. If Tampa cannot put together a better supporting cast for 2023, the Bucs may not be at the top of his wish list.
With a projected $43.4 million cap deficit, according to Spotrac, it's hard to see the Buccaneers improving their situation dramatically through free agency.
The prediction here is that if Brady comes back for next season, he'll look to finish his career with a third team.
Prediction: Brady does not return to Tampa Bay
Derek Carr Will Be Traded or Released Before Feb. 15
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The Raiders are eyeing Brady because they have already decided to move on from longtime starter Derek Carr.
Carr was benched for the final two games of the regular season, and Las Vegas used those games to audition Jarrett Stidham. While the 26-year-old mostly played well, he'll be a free agent in March and probably hasn't shown enough to justify a long-term extension.
This leaves Las Vegas with an uncertain quarterback situation. Carr's situation is one that quarterback-needy teams will be watching closely. He is a three-time Pro Bowler with 142 starts and a 91.8 career passer rating.
Because Carr's $32.9 million 2023 salary will become guaranteed on February 15—along with $7.5 million of his 2024 salary, according to Spotrac—Carr may also end up on the free-agent market.
The Raiders aren't going to eat that money if Carr isn't in their future plans.
The problem for Las Vegas is that Carr has a no-trade clause in his contract—and he has little incentive to do the Raiders a favor by waiving his clause.
Accepting a trade would really only make sense if he believes he can't get that $40.4 million guaranteed on a free-agent deal. If a franchise assures Carr that it will match that amount—and yes, that's tampering, but it's foolish to believe that it won't happen—forcing the Raiders to cut him feels like the logical play.
A lot will hinge on the number of teams that make their interest known in the coming weeks. If Carr's market isn't as robust as it would seem at first blush, then perhaps he sticks with the contract he already has and accepts a trade. That's risky, though, because while Carr's salary jumps to $41.9 million in 2024, it's not guaranteed.
A team trading for Carr could theoretically release him after this season at the cost of $7.5 million. Getting a new contract via free agency could offer more long-term security.
Prediction: Carr forces his release, enters the free-agent pool
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